Roki Sasaki — OGILVIE

Roki Sasaki P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.20

FIP4.38

K%22.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—70

STUF7075

CTRL5560

CMD5060

K†5065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.8

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

SL+1.6 (21%)

FB-5.7 (42%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$10M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$10M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.1%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.1%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	18.4%	13.7%	4.7%	3.1%	5.05	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	31	156	672	145	70	28	94%	4.7	21.6%	10.4%	11.2%	4.2%	4.57	4.92	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	23	23	119	511	117	48	22	100%	5.2	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.1%	4.60	4.62	+0.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	23	23	119	511	117	48	22	100%	5.2	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.1%	4.60	4.62	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	LAD	23	23	119	511	117	48	22	100%	5.2	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.3%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	LAD	23	23	119	511	117	48	22	100%	5.2	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.3%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	9	39	9	4	1	100%	4.6	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	3.4%	4.20	4.38	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	9	38	9	4	1	100%	4.5	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.28	4.46	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	129	550	126	52	23	—	—	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	4.2%	4.57	4.61	+0.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	129	543	126	52	23	—	—	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	4.3%	4.58	4.72	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	160	675	173	66	25	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.7%	15.9%	3.7%	4.68	4.60	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	726	202	70	27	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.7%	18.1%	3.7%	4.52	4.41	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	173	732	203	71	28	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	3.8%	4.48	4.45	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	173	732	203	73	28	100%	6.0	27.7%	9.9%	17.8%	3.9%	4.51	4.53	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	28	28	166	699	189	71	28	100%	5.9	27.1%	10.1%	16.9%	4.0%	4.62	4.69	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	156	657	173	69	28	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	4.2%	4.79	4.90	0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	145	613	157	66	27	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.9%	4.5%	4.99	5.13	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	152	642	165	62	25	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.7%	15.9%	3.9%	4.77	4.69	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	163	688	191	67	27	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.7%	18.1%	3.9%	4.61	4.50	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	28	28	165	697	194	68	27	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	3.9%	4.57	4.54	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	28	28	165	697	193	69	28	100%	5.9	27.7%	9.9%	17.8%	4.0%	4.60	4.62	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	157	663	180	67	28	100%	6.0	27.1%	10.1%	16.9%	4.2%	4.71	4.78	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	25	25	148	625	165	65	28	100%	5.9	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	4.4%	4.89	5.00	0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	138	583	149	63	27	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.9%	4.6%	5.09	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	215	1252	5302	1389	535	219	99%	5.8	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	4.1%	4.71	4.44	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	222	85	35	99%	5.8	26.2%	10.1%	16.1%	4.1%	4.71	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		40	36	176	767	161	82	29	90%	4.4	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.8%	4.75	4.77	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	870	182	93	33	90%	4.4	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.8%	4.75	4.77	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roki Sasaki (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	21.2%	12.0%	3.2%	—	4.48	27.1%	17.4%	505	-0.48	—	—	—
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	74
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	73
Jack Leiter R 2023 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP	5.52	25.4%	14.7%	4.9%	.294	4.13	23.5%	13.5%	344	-1.39	3.90	519	73
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	73
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	72
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	72
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	72
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	71
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	71
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	71
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	71
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	70
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	70
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	70
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	159	26.3%	10.3%	1.50	4.66
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17