Roki Sasaki
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 187 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2028
ERA4.78
FIP5.00
xFIP5.14
SIERA5.05
K%19.7%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%7.6%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2028
OFP—70
STUF6565
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†5560
FB Velo
p8597.0
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
SL+1.6 (18%)
FB-5.7 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 17 | 13 | 57 | 256 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 | 3 | 13 | 63 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 23.8% | 15.9% | 4.8% | 6.23 | 5.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 23.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 57 | 249 | 59 | 32 | 9 | 23.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 25.3% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 25.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 25.4% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 49 | 23 | 8 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 20.7% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 16 | 70 | 319 | 60 | 46 | 11 | 18.7% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.14 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 46 | 200 | 911 | 171 | 131 | 31 | 18.7% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.14 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roki Sasaki (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.48 | 25.8% | 15.1% | 173 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.87 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .348 | 3.38 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 112 | -1.49 | 3.01 | 302 | 87 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 85 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.63 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.41 | 152 | 84 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 84 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 83 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 83 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 83 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 83 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 83 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.80 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 2.90 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 2.90 | 144 | 83 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 83 |
| Chris Mauloni R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.81 | 25.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .333 | 5.71 | 17.6% | 1.4% | 71 | +0.90 | 4.81 | 129 | 83 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 83 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 82 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 82 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.44 | 3.30 | 184 | 82 |
| Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.48 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .280 | 3.78 | 26.0% | 18.4% | 209 | +0.30 | 2.59 | 682 | 82 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.