Roki Sasaki
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 187 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.67
FIP4.90
K%22.3%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p6828.1%
K%
p5322.7%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
SL+1.6 (21%)
FB-5.7 (43%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 57 | 256 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 76% | 3.4 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 57 | 256 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 76% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 16 | 16 | 81 | 352 | 80 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 4.67 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.60 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 136 | 584 | 132 | 59 | 29 | — | — | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 5.06 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 136 | 574 | 132 | 59 | 28 | — | — | 23.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 5.04 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 156 | 657 | 166 | 67 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 4.92 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 168 | 708 | 193 | 72 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 4.2% | 4.84 | 4.75 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 169 | 714 | 195 | 73 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 4.2% | 4.81 | 4.78 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 169 | 714 | 194 | 74 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 4.85 | 4.87 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 162 | 682 | 181 | 73 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 4.5% | 4.96 | 5.03 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 158 | 64 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 183 | 68 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 4.69 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 186 | 70 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.72 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 185 | 71 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 4.2% | 4.78 | 4.80 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 172 | 69 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.6% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 4.3% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 166 | 954 | 4046 | 1043 | 422 | 171 | 99% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 4.84 | 4.56 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 848 | 219 | 88 | 36 | 99% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 4.84 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 29 | 138 | 608 | 125 | 69 | 28 | 88% | 4.2 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 5.22 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 42 | 200 | 881 | 181 | 99 | 40 | 88% | 4.2 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 5.22 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roki Sasaki (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 21.6% | 12.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.81 | 26.7% | 16.5% | 492 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 79 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 77 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 74 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2029 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Jackson Baumeister R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.86 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 5.7% | .217 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 226 | 73 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 73 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 72 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 72 |
| Austin Gordon R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 72 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 72 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 72 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 71 |
| Corbin Martin R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.69 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 143 | +0.81 | 3.26 | 440 | 71 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 71 |
| Conor Grammes R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.83 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 5.5% | .417 | 4.26 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 124 | -1.57 | 3.89 | 171 | 71 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 70 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 70 |
| Hyun-Seok Jang R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.11 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.11 | 127 | 70 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 160 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 1.60 | 4.88 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |