Roki Sasaki

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	17	13	57	5.05	5.12	18.4%	13.7%	0.2	K 17.3% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.03
2026	24	MLBLAD	26	23	122	4.49	4.60	23.6%	9.2%	1.1
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	16	16	93	4.41	4.47	26.6%	9.4%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBLAD	16	16	95	4.43	4.39	28.5%	9.3%	1.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBLAD	15	15	91	4.43	4.43	28.5%	9.4%	1.1

Last 2 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$4M2030Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%58

xwOBA vs44

Form3.77 ERA (proj 4.41) · K 23.6% (proj 26.6%) · BB 9.8% (proj 9.4%) ▼ last 90d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsLouis Varland (age 25) · Raisel Iglesias (age 25) · Nick Pivetta (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.41

FIP4.47

K%26.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%17.2%

Proj IP93

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$9M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$4M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$31M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.2%	3.1%	5.05	5.03	+0.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.2%	3.1%	5.05	5.03	+0.2
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	57	256	47	35	8	76%	3.4	18.4%	13.7%	4.7%	3.1%	5.05	5.12	+0.2
2026	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	23	122	522	123	48	22	88%	4.7	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	4.0%	4.49	4.49	+1.3
2026	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	23	122	522	123	48	22	88%	4.7	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	4.0%	4.49	4.49	+1.3
2026	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	23	122	522	123	48	22	88%	4.7	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	4.2%	4.49	4.60	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	31	159	683	151	70	28	86%	4.4	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	4.1%	4.48	4.81	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	16	16	93	393	104	37	15	100%	5.8	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	3.7%	4.41	4.47	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	100	424	121	40	16	100%	5.9	28.5%	9.3%	19.2%	3.7%	4.34	4.30	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	96	404	115	38	15	100%	6.0	28.5%	9.4%	19.1%	3.8%	4.34	4.34	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	92	388	110	37	15	100%	6.1	28.4%	9.6%	18.8%	3.9%	4.39	4.42	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	353	98	35	14	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.0%	4.51	4.58	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	73	308	83	31	13	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	4.2%	4.68	4.79	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	60	255	67	27	11	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.4%	15.9%	4.5%	4.88	5.02	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	95	401	114	38	16	100%	5.9	28.5%	9.3%	19.2%	3.9%	4.43	4.39	+1.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	91	384	110	36	15	100%	6.1	28.5%	9.4%	19.1%	3.9%	4.43	4.43	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	87	367	104	35	15	100%	6.2	28.4%	9.6%	18.8%	4.0%	4.48	4.51	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	79	334	93	33	14	100%	6.1	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.2%	4.60	4.67	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	69	291	79	29	13	100%	5.8	27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	4.4%	4.78	4.89	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	57	241	63	25	11	100%	5.7	26.4%	10.4%	15.9%	4.6%	4.98	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	111	638	2707	716	267	112	96%	5.5	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	4.1%	4.56	4.38	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	849	224	84	35	96%	5.5	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	4.1%	4.56	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		43	36	179	778	167	82	29	84%	4.2	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.67	4.67	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	868	187	91	33	84%	4.2	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.67	4.67	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 21 IPFIP 4.30 → 4.54 (+0.24)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.68%	—	×0.900	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.956	×1.100	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roki Sasaki (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.35	28.5%	19.0%	288	-0.12	—	—	—
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SP-	4.09	23.1%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.30	25.3%	18.2%	284	-0.79	1.70	689	76
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	73
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	71
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	70
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	70
Jack Leiter R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	25.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.304	4.07	23.1%	12.8%	232	-0.15	3.90	519	69
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	69
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	69
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	69
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	69
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	68
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	68
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	68
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	68
Dinelson Lamet R 2017 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.1%	11.2%	3.0%	.270	3.02	33.6%	25.2%	157	-0.78	2.11	778	68
Luis Castillo R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	25	SP	4.00	23.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.278	3.24	27.1%	17.8%	448	-0.76	2.44	1,860	68
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	68
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	67
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	67
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	84	26.5%	9.8%	1.54	4.48
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59