Eliazar Dishmey — OGILVIE

Eliazar Dishmey P Beloit Sky Carp

+0.8 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.9 · 2030

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.0%

IP99

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	24.7%	13.5%	1.3%	2.74	3.46	+0.4
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	17.9%	15.1%	4.7%	6.64	6.05	-0.3
2024	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	17.4%	11.0%	3.5%	5.29	4.93	+0.1
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	20.0%	14.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.69	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	2	2	7	31	14	7	0	—	—	—	1.35	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	18	18	99	419	92	45	11	21.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	106	450	106	52	11	23.4%	11.7%	2.5%	4.26	4.18	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIA	23	23	126	533	121	52	14	22.8%	9.8%	2.6%	4.32	4.23	+1.5
2028	23	MLB	MIA	27	27	151	638	149	58	17	23.4%	9.1%	2.6%	4.18	4.08	+2.1
2029	24	MLB	MIA	31	31	171	721	172	63	19	23.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.07	3.99	+2.5
2030	25	MLB	MIA	34	34	185	781	189	67	20	24.2%	8.5%	2.6%	3.99	3.93	+2.9
2031	26	MLB	MIA	34	34	185	781	191	66	20	24.4%	8.5%	2.6%	3.94	3.91	+2.9
2032	27	MLB	MIA	33	33	184	775	190	66	20	24.5%	8.5%	2.6%	3.93	3.92	+2.9
2033	28	MLB	MIA	33	33	181	763	186	65	20	24.4%	8.6%	2.6%	3.94	3.95	+2.8
2034	29	MLB	MIA	32	32	177	746	181	64	20	24.3%	8.6%	2.7%	3.97	3.99	+2.6
2035	30	MLB	MIA	31	31	171	723	174	63	20	24.1%	8.7%	2.7%	4.02	4.05	+2.4
2036	31	MLB	MIA	30	30	165	698	166	62	20	23.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.13	+2.2
2037	32	MLB	MIA	29	29	159	670	158	60	19	23.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.17	4.22	+1.9
2038	33	MLB	MIA	28	28	152	640	149	59	19	23.3%	9.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.31	+1.7
2039	34	MLB	MIA	26	26	144	608	139	57	19	22.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+1.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			58	44	217	922	188	123	20	20.4%	13.4%	2.1%	3.93	4.24	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			53	40	200	848	173	113	18	20.4%	13.4%	2.1%	3.93	4.24	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliazar Dishmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.8%	10.8%	2.6%	—	4.09	23.4%	14.3%	448	-0.37	—	—	—
Jackson Nezuh R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	91
Cade Smith R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	91
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	91
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	90
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	90
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	89
Levi Kelly R 2025 · 3.41 FIP	20	SP-	3.41	22.9%	11.3%	1.5%	.285	6.22	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.81	3.41	125	89
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	89
Daniel Eagen R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	25.1%	12.6%	2.9%	.263	7.80	20.3%	9.7%	12	+3.66	4.14	129	89
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	89
Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	22.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.239	6.75	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.24	4.51	129	89
Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	88
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	88
Corey Black R 2028 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	88
Luke Russo R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	88
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Trace Bright R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	26.3%	14.7%	2.7%	.297	4.47	19.0%	3.7%	211	+0.23	4.24	311	87
Zach Messinger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	314	+0.35	3.71	397	87
Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.5	$22M	+$21M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.9	$26M	+$25M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.9	$27M	+$26M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.9	$28M	+$23M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.8	$28M	+$19M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+2.6	$26M	+$14M
Totals		$28M		$156M	+$128M