Eliazar Dishmey — OGILVIE

Eliazar Dishmey P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%21.1%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4055

CTRL3040

CMD3535

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$7M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$37M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	24.7%	13.5%	11.2%	1.4%	2.74	3.47	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	36.3%	10.8%	25.5%	1.0%	2.74	1.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	17.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.6%	6.64	6.05	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	17.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.6%	6.64	6.05	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	26.4%	12.1%	14.3%	3.3%	6.64	4.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.0%	5.29	3.26	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	20.0%	14.0%	6.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	20.0%	14.0%	6.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	26.7%	11.9%	14.9%	0.7%	2.90	2.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	23	105	420	140	47	6	100%	4.6	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	1.7%	2.92	3.40	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	23	105	420	140	47	6	100%	4.6	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	1.7%	2.92	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIA	7	7	34	136	48	18	2	100%	4.8	35.3%	13.2%	22.1%	1.5%	2.14	2.60	—
2026	21	AA RAW	MIA	16	16	71	284	92	29	4	100%	4.4	32.4%	10.2%	22.2%	1.4%	3.30	2.43	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	MIA	2	2	8	32	7	5	1	100%	3.8	21.1%	14.6%	6.4%	2.6%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	112	452	147	52	7	—	—	32.5%	11.4%	21.0%	1.5%	3.06	3.51	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	144	606	138	79	16	100%	5.1	22.7%	13.0%	9.7%	2.6%	4.75	4.63	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	175	739	175	88	19	100%	5.3	23.7%	11.9%	11.7%	2.6%	4.54	4.41	+1.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	179	757	184	86	20	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.28	+1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	187	84	20	100%	5.8	24.6%	11.0%	13.6%	2.6%	4.28	4.21	+1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	188	83	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.6%	4.23	4.19	+1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	185	83	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	11.1%	13.7%	2.6%	4.23	4.23	+1.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	179	81	20	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.28	4.31	+1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	169	79	20	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.44	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	157	76	20	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.7%	12.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.62	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	608	144	73	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	133	562	131	70	20	100%	6.1	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.5%	4.91	5.05	-0.2
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	516	117	67	20	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.8%	5.14	5.30	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	72	304	69	39	8	100%	5.1	22.7%	13.0%	9.7%	2.5%	4.68	4.56	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	128	540	128	64	13	100%	5.3	23.7%	11.9%	11.7%	2.5%	4.47	4.34	+0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	149	629	152	71	15	100%	5.5	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.31	4.21	+1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	159	671	165	74	16	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.0%	13.6%	2.4%	4.21	4.14	+1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	173	76	17	100%	5.9	24.8%	11.0%	13.8%	2.4%	4.16	4.12	+1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	164	692	172	77	17	100%	6.1	24.8%	11.1%	13.7%	2.5%	4.16	4.16	+1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	161	680	168	76	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.2%	13.5%	2.6%	4.21	4.24	+1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	161	75	18	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.7%	4.30	4.36	+0.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	149	73	18	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.54	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	137	70	18	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	3.1%	4.61	4.73	+0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	124	67	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.95	-0.2
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	116	490	111	63	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.9%	9.8%	3.6%	5.04	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		287	287	1681	7098	1709	826	195	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.6%	12.4%	2.7%	4.41	4.05	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	98	23	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.6%	12.4%	2.7%	4.41	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		79	65	315	1311	285	169	26	82%	4.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.65	3.98	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	832	181	107	16	82%	4.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.65	3.98	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliazar Dishmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	21.1%	14.6%	2.6%	—	4.43	23.6%	11.6%	498	-0.56	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	86
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	86
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	86
Blake Rivera R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.04	3.72	179	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	84
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	84
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.40	23.9%	12.8%	346	-0.65	3.90	519	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.1	155	23.9%	11.8%	1.10	4.52
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67