Eliazar Dishmey

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP45OGV rank#71ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	17	16	68	5.29	3.26	25.2%	9.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.74
2025	20	MIX2 levels	22	20	99	2.90	2.77	26.7%	11.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.69
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	105	2.92	2.52	33.3%	11.2%	—	K 26.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	1	1	2	4.39	4.39	25.9%	13.8%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBMIA	10	10	55	4.19	4.11	26.3%	12.3%	0.8
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIA	15	15	86	4.06	3.98	26.6%	11.4%	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$5M+1

Career WAR0.8 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 67%

CompsTrace Bright (age 22) · Cade Smith (age 22) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%25.9%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$78M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$11M	+$11M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$9M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$53M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	24.7%	13.5%	11.2%	1.4%	2.74	3.47	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	36.3%	10.8%	25.5%	1.0%	2.74	1.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	17.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.6%	6.64	6.05	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	26.4%	12.1%	14.3%	3.3%	6.64	4.28	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.0%	5.29	3.26	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	20.0%	14.0%	6.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	20.0%	14.0%	6.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.69	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	26.7%	11.9%	14.9%	0.7%	2.90	2.77	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	105	420	140	47	6	100%	4.6	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	1.7%	2.92	3.40	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	105	420	140	47	6	100%	4.6	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	1.7%	2.92	3.40	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	105	420	140	47	6	100%	4.6	33.3%	11.2%	22.1%	1.4%	2.92	2.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.9%	13.8%	12.2%	2.5%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	110	464	122	57	11	100%	5.2	26.3%	12.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.26	4.18	+1.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	123	519	138	59	13	100%	5.6	26.6%	11.4%	15.2%	2.5%	4.13	4.05	+2.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	128	540	144	59	13	100%	5.8	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	2.5%	4.04	3.97	+2.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	128	538	144	58	14	100%	6.1	26.8%	10.8%	16.0%	2.5%	4.00	3.96	+2.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	526	141	57	13	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.8%	15.9%	2.6%	4.00	4.00	+2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	119	503	134	55	13	100%	6.0	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	2.7%	4.05	4.08	+1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	111	469	124	53	13	100%	5.8	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.15	4.21	+1.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	101	426	111	49	13	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.29	4.39	+1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	90	381	98	45	12	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.59	+0.8
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	80	337	85	41	12	100%	6.1	25.2%	12.3%	13.0%	3.5%	4.68	4.82	+0.5
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	70	294	73	37	11	100%	5.8	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	3.8%	4.91	5.07	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	55	232	61	29	5	100%	5.5	26.3%	12.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.19	4.11	+0.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	86	363	96	41	9	100%	5.7	26.6%	11.4%	15.2%	2.4%	4.06	3.98	+1.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	104	439	117	48	10	100%	5.8	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	2.4%	3.97	3.90	+1.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	112	473	127	51	11	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.8%	16.0%	2.4%	3.93	3.89	+1.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	113	477	128	52	12	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.93	3.93	+1.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	124	51	12	100%	6.1	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	2.5%	3.98	4.01	+1.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	103	435	115	49	12	100%	6.1	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.13	+1.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	95	401	105	46	11	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.31	+1.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	86	363	93	43	11	100%	6.1	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.38	4.50	+0.8
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	76	321	81	39	11	100%	5.8	25.2%	12.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.58	4.72	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	66	279	69	35	10	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	3.6%	4.81	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	170	1005	4245	1115	484	114	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	2.7%	4.15	3.80	+19.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	222	96	23	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	2.7%	4.15	3.80	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		79	65	315	1311	285	169	26	82%	4.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.65	3.98	+16.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	832	181	107	16	82%	4.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.65	3.98	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 71 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.23 (+0.80)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.810	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.21%	—	×1.100	11.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 34 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.74 (+1.14)K% 35.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.770	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.150	15.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 75 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.03 (+0.93)K% 24.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.740	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.50%	—	×1.180	15.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.035	×1.300	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 25 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.54 (+0.93)K% 34.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.41%	—	×0.770	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.34%

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 64 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.74 (+1.27)K% 23.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.57%	—	×0.740	17.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.180	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.888	×1.300	3.14%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 20 IPFIP 4.21 → 6.05 (+1.83)K% 26.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.680	17.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×1.250	15.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.30%	÷0.995	×1.400	4.64%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Marlins · 23 IPFIP 1.94 → 3.47 (+1.53)K% 36.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.27%	—	×0.680	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.78%	—	×1.250	13.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.016	×1.400	1.35%

Result: FIP 1.94 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliazar Dishmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.06	26.5%	15.0%	361	-0.33	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	94
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	89
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	89
Jackson Baumeister R 2024 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP	3.32	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.44	18.9%	6.2%	166	+2.12	3.32	265	88
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	82
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	82
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	82
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	82
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	82
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	80
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	106	26.3%	11.6%	1.07	4.23
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02