Eliazar Dishmey — OGILVIE

Eliazar Dishmey P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.1%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4055

CTRL3040

CMD3535

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$17M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	24.7%	13.5%	11.2%	1.3%	2.74	3.45	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	10	3	23	102	37	11	1	30%	2.3	36.3%	10.8%	25.5%	1.0%	2.74	1.88	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	17.9%	15.1%	2.8%	4.7%	6.64	6.06	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	7	3	20	91	24	11	3	43%	2.9	26.4%	12.1%	14.3%	3.3%	6.64	4.28	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	17.4%	11.0%	6.5%	3.6%	5.29	4.98	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	17	16	68	294	74	27	6	94%	4.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.0%	5.29	3.26	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	20.0%	14.0%	6.0%	0.9%	2.90	3.68	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	20	99	404	108	48	3	91%	4.5	26.7%	11.9%	14.9%	0.7%	2.90	2.77	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	15	15	70	285	92	36	5	100%	4.7	25.5%	14.2%	11.3%	2.1%	3.07	3.92	+0.7
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	13	13	65	274	58	38	7	100%	5.0	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.91	4.91	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	135	559	150	74	12	—	—	26.8%	13.2%	13.5%	2.2%	3.95	4.40	+1.6
2026 FULL	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.87	4.49	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIA	26	26	130	551	125	68	14	100%	5.0	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.68	4.58	+1.3
2028	23	MLB	MIA	32	32	169	715	169	82	19	100%	5.3	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.48	4.37	+2.0
2029	24	MLB	MIA	31	31	175	739	179	81	19	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	2.6%	4.34	4.25	+2.4
2030	25	MLB	MIA	30	30	177	748	184	81	19	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	2.6%	4.25	4.19	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	MIA	30	30	177	748	185	80	19	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.6%	4.20	4.17	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	MIA	29	29	174	737	182	80	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	2.6%	4.20	4.20	+2.4
2033	28	MLB	MIA	28	28	169	715	176	78	20	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.29	+2.2
2034	29	MLB	MIA	27	27	162	683	167	76	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.35	4.42	+1.9
2035	30	MLB	MIA	25	25	152	642	154	74	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.60	+1.4
2036	31	MLB	MIA	24	24	142	598	142	71	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	3.3%	4.68	4.80	+1.0
2027	22	MLB	MIA	13	13	65	274	62	34	7	100%	5.0	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	2.5%	4.64	4.54	+0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIA	23	23	124	524	124	60	13	100%	5.4	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	2.5%	4.44	4.33	+1.6
2029	24	MLB	MIA	26	26	145	612	148	67	15	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	2.5%	4.30	4.21	+2.0
2030	25	MLB	MIA	27	27	157	663	163	71	17	100%	5.8	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	2.5%	4.21	4.15	+2.3
2031	26	MLB	MIA	27	27	162	684	169	73	17	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.5%	4.16	4.13	+2.4
2032	27	MLB	MIA	27	27	162	684	169	74	18	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	2.6%	4.16	4.16	+2.3
2033	28	MLB	MIA	26	26	159	671	165	74	18	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.25	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	MIA	26	26	154	650	159	73	18	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.38	+1.8
2035	30	MLB	MIA	24	24	144	608	146	70	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.55	+1.4
2036	31	MLB	MIA	22	22	135	570	135	67	18	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.63	4.75	+1.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			242	242	1408	5945	1443	664	160	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.32	3.94	+24.0
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	205	94	23	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.32	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			71	57	281	1176	246	157	26	80%	4.0	20.9%	13.3%	7.6%	2.2%	3.78	4.23	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—			51	41	200	837	175	112	18	80%	4.0	20.9%	13.3%	7.6%	2.2%	3.78	4.23	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliazar Dishmey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.1%	13.9%	2.6%	—	4.38	23.6%	12.0%	475	-0.53	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	89
Cade Smith R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	89
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	21.8%	13.4%	2.2%	.275	5.43	15.2%	2.1%	20	+1.24	4.19	141	88
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	87
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	87
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	86
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	86
Isaiah Lowe R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	18.5%	12.0%	1.3%	.303	6.00	13.0%	-1.6%	143	+2.22	3.78	249	85
Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	6.03	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.83	2.73	357	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2028 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	85
Jurrangelo Cijntje S 2027 · 5.16 FIP	22	SP	5.16	20.5%	12.6%	4.0%	.242	5.35	22.9%	10.5%	80	+0.19	5.16	189	85
Max Bain R 2028 · 5.37 FIP	23	SP	5.37	20.5%	15.2%	3.8%	.291	6.65	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.28	5.16	174	85
Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	21	SP	4.72	18.1%	15.6%	2.1%	.281	5.19	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.47	4.72	149	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	85
Will Sanders R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	85
Lucas Elissalt R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP-	3.85	20.1%	11.0%	1.9%	.253	4.98	21.4%	9.2%	60	+1.13	3.85	149	84
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	84
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP	4.48	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.44	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.04	2.88	245	84
Davis Polo R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP	4.51	21.0%	12.9%	2.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	190	84
Blake Rivera R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	21	SP	3.80	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.92	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.12	3.78	179	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	156	24.0%	11.4%	1.06	4.41
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Gio Gonzalez ('20)	6	141	21.8%	9.5%	0.85	3.85