Carlos Jorge

SS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 L/R 5'9" / 160 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.140 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+CIN	402	.220/.292/.394	12	28	40	—	.166/.229/.278
2025	21	A+/INTL2 orgs	583	.246/.342/.347	8	48	70	—	.223/.294/.304
2026	22	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	404	.298/.370/.420	9	33	96	—	.280/.333/.376
2026	22	MLBCIN	50	.217/.280/.326	1	2	68	0.4
2027PROJ10% MLB	23	MLBCIN	16	.236/.294/.335	0	1	76	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCIN	182	.240/.299/.347	4	14	80	0.5
2029PROJ58% MLB	25	MLBCIN	274	.241/.301/.354	6	20	83	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.140First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$5M2031Arb-2$8M2032Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed94

K%62

Whiff%61

Z-Con%50

Chase%42

Max EV29

Form.231/.291/.328 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .234/.290/.329

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 19, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsDavid Hamilton (age 24) · Vidal Bruján (age 24) · Johan Rojas (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .294 / .335

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP297

ISO85

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

350.239

POWER

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

1081.8

SPEED

Sprint

9030.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%25%▼26% over 50 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%7%·8% over 50 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.098·.109 over 46 AB (60d) · proj .095

HR/BB2.5%·3.0% over 33 BBE (60d) · proj 2.3%

BABIP.296·.281 over 32 BIP (60d) · proj .296

SLASH.231/.291/.328·proj .234/.290/.329

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.140 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$24M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	188	159	55	8	10	3	24	32	3	27	5	346	441	579	1.019	233	413	17	13	438	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	154	119	31	7	2	7	25	41	6	27	4	261	413	529	943	269	324	27	16	404	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	94	88	21	3	1	3	5	30	0	1	2	239	280	398	677	159	321	32	5	296	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	356	298	88	11	9	9	47	70	7	31	7	295	402	483	885	188	356	20	13	390	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	402	355	78	20	3	12	31	125	7	28	4	220	292	394	687	175	296	31	8	301	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	469	406	102	16	4	6	52	87	5	40	7	251	343	355	698	103	305	19	11	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	114	95	21	3	0	2	13	36	4	8	1	221	336	316	652	95	333	32	11	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	50	46	10	0	1	1	4	13	0	2	1	217	280	326	606	109	281	26	8	275	68	-2	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.4
2026	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	124	114	30	5	1	2	8	25	2	10	1	263	323	377	700	114	322	20	6	316	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	259	230	76	4	3	6	25	52	3	23	4	330	403	452	855	122	405	20	10	383	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	21	18	2	0	0	1	2	9	1	0	0	111	238	278	516	167	125	43	10	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	50	46	10	0	1	1	4	13	0	2	1	217	280	326	606	109	281	26	8	275	72	-2	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	188	166	36	5	6	1	17	39	3	27	5	217	301	337	638	120	266	21	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	154	129	23	5	1	5	15	59	6	27	4	178	293	349	642	171	242	38	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	94	89	17	2	1	2	4	39	0	1	2	191	226	303	529	112	292	41	4	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	356	313	74	8	7	7	33	95	7	31	7	236	323	374	697	137	308	27	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	402	367	61	16	2	7	23	158	7	28	4	166	229	278	507	112	258	39	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	469	421	94	14	4	4	37	111	5	40	7	223	294	304	598	81	284	24	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	50	46	10	0	1	1	4	13	0	2	1	217	280	326	606	109	281	26	8	269	68	-2	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.4
2026	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	124	116	27	4	1	1	6	30	2	10	1	233	282	310	593	78	315	24	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	259	238	72	4	3	5	17	63	3	23	4	303	357	408	764	105	389	24	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	188	166	36	5	6	1	17	39	3	27	5	217	301	337	638	120	273	21	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	188	159	55	8	10	3	24	32	3	27	5	346	441	579	1.019	233	413	17	13	438	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	154	129	23	5	1	5	15	59	6	27	4	178	293	349	642	171	265	38	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	154	119	31	7	2	7	25	41	6	27	4	261	413	529	943	269	324	27	16	404	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	450	402	90	10	8	9	37	134	7	32	9	224	300	356	656	132	308	30	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	450	386	109	14	10	12	52	100	7	32	9	282	377	464	840	181	349	22	12	370	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	402	367	61	16	2	7	23	158	7	28	4	166	229	278	507	112	261	39	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	402	355	78	20	3	12	31	125	7	28	4	220	292	394	687	175	296	31	8	301	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	521	117	18	5	5	46	138	9	48	8	225	299	307	606	83	295	24	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	583	501	123	19	4	8	65	123	9	48	8	246	342	347	689	102	309	21	11	313	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	454	419	116	9	5	8	28	112	6	35	6	277	331	379	711	103	360	25	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	454	408	118	9	5	10	39	99	6	35	6	289	360	409	769	120	360	22	9	346	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	188	166	36	5	6	1	17	39	3	27	5	217	301	337	638	120	266	21	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	154	132	23	5	1	5	15	59	6	27	4	174	293	341	634	167	242	38	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	450	403	90	10	8	9	37	134	7	32	9	223	300	355	655	132	305	30	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	402	369	61	16	2	7	23	158	7	28	4	165	229	276	506	111	258	39	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	523	117	18	5	5	46	138	9	48	8	224	299	306	605	82	284	24	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	454	417	116	9	5	8	28	112	6	35	6	278	331	381	712	103	355	25	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	402	369	61	16	2	7	23	158	7	28	4	165	229	276	506	111	258	39	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	523	117	18	5	5	46	138	9	48	8	224	299	306	605	82	284	24	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	454	417	116	9	5	8	28	112	6	35	6	278	331	381	712	103	355	25	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	543	497	117	13	4	9	35	129	6	41	5	234	293	329	622	95	296	24	6	281	76	-16	+6	+4	+6	+12	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	236	294	335	629	99	297	25	6	284	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	42%	430	393	94	11	3	8	29	101	5	32	4	237	297	340	637	103	297	23	7	287	80	-10	+5	+4	+5	+9	1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	476	435	103	12	3	9	33	111	5	36	5	239	299	347	646	108	297	23	7	290	83	-10	+5	+4	+5	+10	1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	496	453	108	13	4	10	35	115	5	37	5	239	300	350	650	111	296	23	7	292	84	-10	+5	+4	+5	+11	1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66%	490	447	106	13	3	10	35	114	5	36	5	238	300	350	650	112	296	23	7	292	84	-9	+5	+4	+5	+11	1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	67%	481	439	104	13	3	10	34	113	5	32	4	237	300	349	648	112	295	23	7	291	83	-10	+5	+3	+5	+10	1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	66%	467	426	100	13	3	9	33	111	5	28	4	235	297	343	640	108	294	24	7	288	81	-11	+4	+2	+5	+10	1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	453	414	96	12	3	8	32	109	4	23	3	232	293	335	629	103	292	24	7	283	78	-12	+3	+2	+5	+10	0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	436	399	91	11	3	8	30	107	4	17	2	228	289	326	615	98	290	25	7	278	74	-13	+3	+1	+5	+9	0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	42%	182	166	40	4	1	4	12	43	2	14	2	240	299	347	646	108	298	24	7	290	80	-4	+2	+1	+2	+4	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	274	250	61	7	2	6	19	64	3	20	3	241	301	354	655	113	298	23	7	294	83	-6	+3	+2	+3	+6	0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	321	293	70	8	2	7	22	75	3	24	3	241	302	357	659	116	298	23	7	296	84	-6	+4	+3	+3	+7	1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	66%	324	295	71	9	2	7	23	76	3	24	3	241	303	357	660	117	297	23	7	296	84	-6	+4	+3	+3	+7	1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	67%	322	293	70	9	2	7	23	76	3	22	3	239	302	356	657	117	296	24	7	295	83	-6	+3	+2	+3	+7	1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	66%	308	280	66	8	2	6	22	73	3	18	2	237	299	350	649	113	295	24	7	291	81	-7	+3	+2	+3	+7	0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	295	269	64	8	2	6	21	71	3	15	2	234	295	342	637	108	293	24	7	287	78	-8	+2	+1	+3	+6	0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	283	258	59	7	2	5	20	69	3	11	2	230	291	332	623	102	291	24	7	281	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2359	2150	511	60	16	49	166	560	23	150	21	238	299	349	648	111	297	24	7	291	78	-54	+22	+14	+30	+51	6.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	141	17	4	14	46	154	6	41	6	238	299	351	651	113	297	24	7	291	78	-15	+6	+4	+8	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6115	5552	1278	165	53	109	437	1558	78	450	70	230	296	338	633	108	298	25	7	283	78	-90	+37	+24	+46	+85	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	137	18	6	12	46	166	8	48	7	232	296	344	640	112	300	26	7	283	78	-15	+6	+4	+8	+14	1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 259 PAwOBA .374 → .332 (−42)K% 20.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.08%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.65%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.74%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.00%
Singles /BIP	35.39%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.025	×1.027	34.29%
Doubles /BIP	2.25%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.025	×1.027	2.15%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.025	×1.027	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	3.37%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.77%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .374 → .332; ISO .122 → .104; BABIP .405 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 124 PAwOBA .307 → .274 (−33)K% 20.2% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.16%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.67%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.59%
Singles /BIP	24.72%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.025	×1.050	24.75%
Doubles /BIP	5.62%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.025	×1.050	5.02%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.025	×1.050	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	2.25%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .307 → .274; ISO .114 → .093; BABIP .322 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 469 PAwOBA .310 → .265 (−45)K% 18.6% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.55%	÷0.999	×1.270	—	—	23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.09%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.92%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.85%
Singles /BIP	23.82%	÷0.987	×0.920	×1.004	×1.012	22.56%
Doubles /BIP	5.02%	÷0.928	×0.810	×1.004	×1.012	4.45%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.004	×1.012	1.20%
Home runs /BIP	1.88%	÷1.124	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.35%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .310 → .265; ISO .103 → .085; BABIP .305 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 402 PAwOBA .297 → .228 (−69)K% 31.1% → 39.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.09%	÷1.006	×1.270	—	—	39.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.71%	÷0.976	×0.710	—	×1.027	5.76%
HBP% /PA	1.74%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.41%
Singles /BIP	18.70%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.980	×1.027	16.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.941	×0.810	×0.980	×1.027	7.53%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.030	×0.850	×0.980	×1.027	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	5.22%	÷1.285	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.34%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .297 → .228; ISO .175 → .120; BABIP .296 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 356 PAwOBA .383 → .306 (−77)K% 19.7% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.66%	÷1.006	×1.360	—	—	26.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.20%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.33%
HBP% /PA	1.97%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.58%
Singles /BIP	25.88%	÷1.032	×0.920	×0.979	×1.030	23.25%
Doubles /BIP	4.82%	÷1.100	×0.830	×0.979	×1.030	3.67%
Triples /BIP	3.95%	÷1.083	×0.910	×0.979	×1.030	3.34%
Home runs /BIP	3.95%	÷1.060	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .383 → .306; ISO .188 → .146; BABIP .356 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 94 PAwOBA .291 → .230 (−62)K% 31.9% → 41.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.91%	÷0.975	×1.270	—	—	41.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.32%	÷1.020	×0.710	—	×1.042	3.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷0.979	×0.920	×0.964	×1.042	22.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.17%	÷1.027	×0.810	×0.964	×1.042	4.10%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷0.916	×0.850	×0.964	×1.042	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	5.17%	÷0.951	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.53%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .291 → .230; ISO .159 → .122; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 154 PAwOBA .402 → .285 (−117)K% 26.6% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.62%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	38.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.23%	÷1.011	×0.620	—	×1.008	10.03%
HBP% /PA	3.90%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.83%
Singles /BIP	19.23%	÷1.022	×0.820	×0.986	×1.008	15.32%
Doubles /BIP	8.97%	÷1.035	×0.720	×0.986	×1.008	6.20%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷0.983	×0.720	×0.986	×1.008	1.87%
Home runs /BIP	8.97%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×1.008	7.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .402 → .285; ISO .269 → .201; BABIP .324 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Reds · 188 PAwOBA .432 → .283 (−149)K% 17.0% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.02%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.77%	÷0.979	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.20%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.13%
Singles /BIP	26.77%	÷0.998	×0.680	×0.990	×1.008	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.30%	÷0.977	×0.600	×0.990	×1.008	3.86%
Triples /BIP	7.87%	÷0.998	×0.600	×0.990	×1.008	4.72%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.104	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.01%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .432 → .283; ISO .233 → .133; BABIP .413 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddie Patek'68-'81 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,246 PA	9.4	6,246	41	385	242*	311*	356*	+66	-5	14.7	15.3
/162	664	4	41	+7.0	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Julio Cruz'77-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,437 PA	6.7	4,437	23	343	233*	321*	315*	+14	+67	12.3	12.7
/162	664	3	51	+2.2	+10.0	1.8	pk7: 13
#3Emilio Bonifáciolast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,780 PA	4.2	2,780	13	165	259	315	337	+15	-1	5.5	5.9
/162	664	3	39	+3.5	-0.1	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,375	46	151	236	294	344	+25	+24	5.8	5.7
/162	664	13	42	+7.1	+6.7	1.6	pk7: 6
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Jorge (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	232/290/326	94	296	2	12	24%	6%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	43	42→50	65→70	46	208/270/320	112	273	8	36	26%	8%	66	-1.1	211/279/332	121	278	12	50	27%	8%	73	-0.6	227/287/350	124	282	13	56	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Vidal Bruján 2022 · MLB	24	47→57	43→45	61→65	49	229/286/346	117	269	10	41	19%	7%	78	-0.3	226/289/341	115	276	10	30	21%	7%	79	-0.2	228/301/339	111	280	8	25	20%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Johan Rojas 2024 · MLB	23	51→60	43→45	64→65	42	246/291/366	120	307	9	37	23%	5%	84	+0.2	245/288/337	92	309	6	34	22%	5%	76	-0.4	243/284/316	73	306	4	40	21%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Victor Scott II 2024 · AA	23	52→55	41→40	70→65	45	246/304/351	104	306	7	50	21%	6%	86	+0.3	214/279/302	88	272	7	40	23%	7%	66	-1.1	197/269/275	78	252	7	40	23%	7%	56	-1.5
✕Cooper Bowman 2024 · AA	24	41→44	44→45	62→60	45	204/283/324	119	284	12	37	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/281/325	115	288	10	33	29%	8%	72	-0.7	209/280/324	115	279	10	37	27%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Delino DeShields 2015 · AA	22	49→56	42→45	62→65	47	234/308/343	109	312	9	41	26%	8%	86	+0.3	236/312/335	99	316	7	32	25%	9%	86	+0.3	240/319/333	93	321	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Braiden Ward 2023 · A	24	48	38→40	64→70	41	221/318/303	83	324	6	41	30%	7%	83	+0.1	226/316/313	87	315	5	49	28%	6%	84	+0.1	233/320/331	98	311	5	64	24%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB	24	42→45	43→45	59→60	47	210/278/320	111	268	10	32	25%	8%	70	-0.9	208/281/302	94	284	8	28	27%	9%	67	-1.1	197/275/280	83	277	7	30	29%	9%	59	-1.2
✕Corey Rosier 2024 · AAA	24	49→54	42→40	65→60	44	235/295/346	111	311	8	37	26%	7%	82	-0.0	210/275/304	94	279	7	28	26%	8%	65	-1.2	187/260/267	80	246	7	28	25%	8%	49	-1.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2018 · AA	23	43→50	43→50	63→65	38	209/254/334	126	297	9	34	32%	5%	63	-1.3	206/247/327	121	303	9	24	33%	4%	59	-1.7	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Micah Johnson 2014 · AA	23	52→61	40→45	63→60	43	247/296/348	101	326	6	35	25%	6%	82	-0.0	261/306/358	97	336	6	28	23%	6%	88	+0.4	261/307/352	91	337	6	27	23%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Nasim Nuñez 2024 · AA	23	46→51	36→30	61→65	52	212/296/269	57	291	4	40	26%	10%	65	-1.2	218/296/283	65	290	5	48	24%	10%	68	-1.0	216/292/270	54	281	5	65	23%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Khalil Lee 2021 · AA	23	47→54	41→45	57→55	43	217/294/316	99	333	9	30	35%	8%	75	-0.5	210/317/340	130	347	11	15	38%	10%	91	+0.6	198/316/331	133	347	11	13	40%	10%	85	+0.2
●Jonathan Villar 2015 · MLB	24	47→57	43→50	62→65	44	225/287/336	110	318	10	39	31%	8%	76	-0.4	253/317/386	133	348	12	43	28%	8%	99	+1.3	264/333/405	141	352	15	44	27%	9%	110	+1.9
✕Steward Berroa 2022 · A	23	45→51	43→45	64→65	50	216/296/333	117	300	10	40	30%	10%	80	-0.2	213/287/330	117	314	10	46	32%	9%	76	-0.4	227/306/323	96	332	8	52	31%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Luisangel Acuña 2024 · AA	22	54→60	43→45	60	45	257/310/365	108	337	10	37	26%	7%	91	+0.7	249/290/337	88	311	6	35	21%	5%	77	-0.3	246/284/323	77	302	5	38	20%	5%	70	-0.6
✕Billy Hamilton 2015 · MLB	24	52→62	39→40	71→70	45	246/292/340	94	307	5	64	21%	6%	78	-0.3	238/289/323	85	293	5	60	19%	7%	74	-0.6	242/301/327	85	311	4	55	22%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jonatan Clase 2024 · AA	22	41→48	50	66→65	45	208/288/367	160	300	16	45	34%	9%	85	+0.2	218/286/349	131	306	13	38	31%	8%	80	-0.2	216/282/334	118	299	12	39	30%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	48→54	48→50	57→60	42	240/294/380	140	304	17	31	27%	6%	90	+0.6	219/285/342	123	278	15	25	26%	7%	78	-0.3	204/275/315	112	259	14	24	26%	7%	67	-0.7

Carlos Jorge

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps