Steward Berroa

RF Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 S/R 5'9" / 193 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.593 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAA/INTL2 orgs	371	.272/.377/.415	10	46	92	—	.251/.319/.380
2024	25	MLBTOR	45	.189/.333/.216	0	6	71	-0.2
2025	26	AAA/A+/INTL2 orgs	470	.251/.372/.352	5	51	85	—	.215/.304/.277
2026	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	319	.241/.353/.350	5	16	65	—	.223/.304/.313
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBPHI	16	.215/.297/.301	0	1	71	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBPHI	68	.214/.295/.299	1	4	70	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.593First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

BB%88

Whiff%68

Chase%63

Z-Con%52

K%46

Max EV37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBilly Hamilton (age 29) · Darren Ford (age 28) · Dwaine Bacon (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .297 / .301

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP293

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.127

POWER35

Avg EV

1074.7

Bat Spd

5672.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.593 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	221	188	49	3	7	1	25	49	3	20	12	261	356	367	724	106	340	22	11	322	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	167	142	40	9	1	0	23	36	1	17	6	282	386	359	745	77	377	22	14	342	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	333	278	68	12	5	7	50	76	1	55	9	245	362	399	761	155	311	23	15	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	60	55	10	0	1	1	5	17	0	7	0	182	250	273	523	91	243	28	8	240	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	255	215	47	11	6	6	33	67	4	40	7	219	333	409	743	191	285	26	13	329	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	54	45	7	3	0	0	7	13	1	4	0	156	283	222	505	67	219	24	13	242	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	396	324	88	21	2	7	57	106	2	43	10	272	384	414	797	142	377	27	14	350	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	6	0	125	176	125	301		222	41	6	148	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	37	7	1	0	0	8	14	0	6	2	189	333	216	550	27	304	31	18	273	71	-2	+0	+3	-4	+1	-0.2
2024	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	300	260	73	9	3	10	35	71	3	34	8	281	372	454	826	173	350	24	12	367	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	71	53	12	0	0	0	15	11	0	12	1	226	397	226	623		286	15	21	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	310	256	63	13	0	2	43	79	1	31	9	246	357	320	677	74	335	25	14	307	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	29	21	3	1	1	0	6	6	2	3	0	143	379	286	665	143	200	21	21	326	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	131	106	30	8	0	3	19	26	3	17	2	283	406	443	850	160	342	20	15	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	301	251	63	12	1	5	45	68	0	15	4	251	365	367	731	116	322	23	15	331	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	18	15	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	67	125	67	192		91	28	6	89	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	45	37	7	1	0	0	8	14	0	6	2	189	333	216	550	27	304	31	18	273	71	-2	+0	+3	-4	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	221	195	33	2	4	0	18	60	3	20	12	169	250	221	471	51	227	27	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	167	151	31	6	1	0	14	52	1	17	6	205	277	258	535	53	304	31	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	333	291	60	10	4	5	37	98	1	55	9	206	298	320	617	113	287	29	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	60	56	10	0	1	1	4	20	0	7	0	179	233	268	501	89	245	33	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	255	226	38	7	5	5	22	90	4	40	7	168	254	310	564	142	243	35	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	54	47	7	3	0	0	5	16	1	4	0	149	245	213	458	64	199	30	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	396	345	87	20	2	6	36	134	2	43	10	252	326	374	700	122	366	34	9	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	37	7	1	0	0	8	14	0	6	2	189	333	216	550	27	304	31	18	273	71	-2	+0	+3	-4	+1	-0.2
2024	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	300	271	68	8	3	7	24	85	3	34	8	251	319	380	699	129	333	28	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	310	269	60	12	0	1	30	94	1	31	9	223	303	279	582	56	310	30	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	29	23	3	1	1	0	4	8	2	3	0	130	310	261	571	130	171	28	14	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	301	265	59	10	1	4	31	82	0	15	4	223	304	313	617	91	297	27	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	221	195	33	2	4	0	18	60	3	20	12	169	250	221	471	51	239	27	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	221	188	49	3	7	1	25	49	3	20	12	261	356	367	724	106	340	22	11	322	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	167	151	31	6	1	0	14	52	1	17	6	205	277	258	535	53	313	31	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	—	167	142	40	9	1	0	23	36	1	17	6	282	386	359	745	77	377	22	14	342	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	333	291	60	10	4	5	37	98	1	55	9	206	298	320	617	113	291	29	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	333	278	68	12	5	7	50	76	1	55	9	245	362	399	761	155	311	23	15	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	315	282	48	7	6	6	26	111	4	47	7	170	250	301	551	131	251	35	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	315	270	57	11	7	7	38	84	4	47	7	211	317	381	699	170	276	27	12	312	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	467	407	97	24	2	6	43	156	3	53	10	238	316	351	667	113	365	33	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	467	385	97	24	2	7	65	126	3	53	10	252	364	379	743	127	352	27	14	330	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	416	369	90	11	3	9	39	119	3	52	11	244	321	363	684	119	335	29	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	416	350	92	10	3	10	58	96	3	52	11	263	372	394	767	131	335	23	14	345	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	470	403	87	17	1	2	48	141	6	51	11	216	309	278	586	62	316	30	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	470	383	96	22	1	5	68	111	6	51	11	251	372	352	724	102	330	24	14	327	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	279	63	11	1	4	33	86	0	16	4	226	308	315	623	90	307	27	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	319	266	64	12	1	5	46	73	0	16	4	241	353	350	702	109	309	23	14	317	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	221	198	33	2	4	0	18	60	3	20	12	167	250	217	467	51	227	27	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	167	150	31	6	1	0	14	52	1	17	6	207	277	260	537	53	304	31	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	333	292	60	10	4	5	37	98	1	55	9	205	298	318	616	113	287	29	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	315	282	48	7	6	6	26	111	4	47	7	170	250	301	551	131	243	35	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	467	418	97	24	2	6	43	156	3	53	10	232	316	342	658	110	346	33	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	416	371	90	11	3	9	39	119	3	52	11	243	321	361	682	119	329	29	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	470	413	87	17	1	2	48	141	6	51	11	211	309	271	580	61	298	30	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	283	63	11	1	4	33	86	0	16	4	223	308	311	619	88	297	27	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	416	371	90	11	3	9	39	119	3	52	11	243	321	361	682	119	329	29	9	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	470	413	87	17	1	2	48	141	6	51	11	211	309	271	580	61	298	30	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	283	63	11	1	4	33	86	0	16	4	223	308	311	619	88	297	27	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	10%	351	312	67	12	1	4	35	97	1	23	4	214	296	298	594	84	293	28	10	273	71	-12	+3	+2	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	215	297	301	598	86	293	25	12	274	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	27%	248	221	47	8	1	3	24	68	1	14	3	213	294	297	591	84	291	27	10	272	70	-9	+2	-0	-3	+5	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	27%	68	61	13	2	0	1	7	19	0	4	1	214	295	299	594	86	291	28	10	273	70	-2	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	113	98	20	3	0	1	15	33	0	10	3	204	310	265	575	61	297	29	13	273	68	-4	+1	+3	-5	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	115	17	0	6	86	190	0	58	17	204	309	266	575	62	296	29	13	273	68	-23	+5	+16	-30	+14	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3111	2736	586	101	24	37	297	934	23	335	75	214	296	309	606	95	307	30	10	269	68	-16	+3	+4	-9	+10	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	123	21	5	8	62	195	5	70	16	215	297	311	609	96	307	30	10	269	68	-23	+5	+5	-13	+14	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 301 PAwOBA .325 → .274 (−51)K% 22.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.59%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.95%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	10.35%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.018	×1.003	23.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.018	×1.003	5.56%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.018	×1.003	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.73%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .325 → .274; ISO .116 → .093; BABIP .322 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 310 PAwOBA .306 → .265 (−41)K% 25.5% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.48%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	30.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.87%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.74%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.31%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷0.983	×0.930	×0.981	×1.018	25.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.34%	÷0.973	×0.830	×0.981	×1.018	6.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.981	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.13%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .306 → .265; ISO .074 → .061; BABIP .335 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 29 PAwOBA .320 → .250 (−70)K% 20.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.69%	÷0.943	×1.270	—	—	27.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.69%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×0.968	14.74%
HBP% /PA	6.90%	—	×0.790	—	×0.968	5.27%
Singles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.023	×0.920	—	×0.968	5.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.013	×0.810	—	×0.968	5.16%
Triples /BIP	6.67%	÷0.900	×0.850	—	×0.968	6.09%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.246	×0.800	—	×0.968	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .320 → .250; ISO .143 → .125; BABIP .200 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 300 PAwOBA .358 → .306 (−53)K% 23.7% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.67%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.67%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.09%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.97%
Singles /BIP	26.98%	÷0.988	×0.930	×1.010	×1.033	26.51%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.959	×0.830	×1.010	×1.033	4.30%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.010	×1.033	1.40%
Home runs /BIP	5.29%	÷0.990	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .358 → .306; ISO .173 → .135; BABIP .350 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 396 PAwOBA .345 → .301 (−43)K% 26.8% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.77%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	33.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.39%	÷1.105	×0.700	—	×1.012	9.23%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.43%
Singles /BIP	26.61%	÷1.023	×0.970	×1.034	×1.012	26.40%
Doubles /BIP	9.63%	÷0.963	×0.860	×1.034	×1.012	9.00%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.033	×0.950	×1.034	×1.012	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	3.21%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.53%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 93, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .345 → .301; ISO .142 → .127; BABIP .377 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 54 PAwOBA .237 → .199 (−38)K% 24.1% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.07%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	29.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.96%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.53%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.82%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.048	11.97%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.033	×0.830	—	×1.048	7.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.700	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .237 → .199; ISO .067 → .056; BABIP .219 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 255 PAwOBA .322 → .248 (−74)K% 26.3% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.27%	÷1.003	×1.350	—	—	35.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.55%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×0.998	8.58%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	1.27%
Singles /BIP	16.22%	÷0.950	×0.910	×0.986	×0.998	15.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷1.254	×0.830	×0.986	×0.998	4.84%
Triples /BIP	4.05%	÷0.900	×0.820	×0.986	×0.998	3.63%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷0.952	×0.830	—	×0.998	3.53%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 151, 3B 80, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .322 → .248; ISO .191 → .147; BABIP .285 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 60 PAwOBA .234 → .207 (−28)K% 28.3% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.33%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	34.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.911	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.991	×0.970	—	×1.027	21.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.067	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	2.63%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×1.027	2.85%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.05%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 102, BB 82 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .234 → .207; ISO .091 → .077; BABIP .243 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Steward Berroa (OGILVIE)	28	45	35	60	60	212/294/295	83	293	2	10	27%	10%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2020 · MLB	29	49→59	38→40	62→70	49	231/293/314	83	301	4	37	23%	8%	73	-0.6	207/262/306	99	291	7	34	29%	7%	60	-1.6	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Darren Ford 2014 · MLB	28	46→53	39→45	58→65	42	222/271/306	84	294	6	41	26%	6%	63	-1.4	220/269/299	79	291	7	37	25%	6%	61	-1.5	216/266/283	68	282	6	37	24%	6%	53	-1.4
✕Dwaine Bacon 2006 · AAA	27	49→50	38→40	63→65	45	224/298/311	87	333	4	39	31%	8%	75	-0.5	208/270/305	97	284	7	32	27%	7%	63	-1.3	185/244/275	90	243	6	40	25%	6%	43	-1.8
✕Chavez Young 2024 · AAA	27	42→50	41→45	59→60	47	204/280/299	95	274	8	33	27%	8%	66	-1.1	206/278/308	102	289	8	22	30%	7%	68	-1.0	181/254/268	87	272	5	21	33%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	46→51	37→30	58→65	41	216/274/285	69	308	5	34	30%	6%	60	-1.6	217/286/287	70	322	4	41	31%	7%	65	-1.2	220/297/258	38	327	0	78	30%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Darin Mastroianni 2014 · MLB	28	48→58	38→40	61→60	47	227/292/306	78	291	5	34	23%	7%	71	-0.8	218/269/293	75	276	5	24	22%	6%	59	-1.6	214/262/278	64	270	4	24	21%	5%	50	-1.6
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	45→55	40→45	57→60	50	216/289/307	92	274	8	35	23%	9%	71	-0.8	231/297/309	78	304	6	35	24%	8%	74	-0.5	232/301/293	61	309	4	40	24%	8%	70	-0.4
✕Jovanny Rosario 2012 · AAA	27	49→51	39→40	60	44	235/277/323	88	282	6	34	19%	5%	70	-0.9	250/294/347	97	328	5	28	24%	6%	81	-0.1	278/318/377	98	388	2	39	27%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Mel Stocker 2009 · AAA	28	51	36→40	66→65	45	239/288/312	74	290	2	41	18%	5%	70	-0.8	223/281/310	87	269	4	33	18%	6%	68	-1.0	208/272/292	84	248	3	44	16%	6%	58	-1.0
✕Quintin Berry 2014 · MLB	29	46→56	37→40	63→65	47	218/290/293	75	295	5	38	26%	8%	68	-1.0	220/288/286	66	297	4	33	25%	8%	65	-1.2	221/288/272	51	300	3	37	25%	8%	60	-1.2
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	47→50	42→45	60	41	224/281/335	111	303	8	29	28%	6%	74	-0.5	210/272/317	107	307	10	20	33%	7%	68	-1.0	148/218/218	71	242	7	18	39%	7%	24	-1.2
✕Nook Logan 2007 · MLB	27	51	37→40	57→60	47	240/290/319	79	299	4	27	21%	7%	72	-0.7	244/290/335	91	323	5	27	24%	6%	77	-0.3	259/297/337	78	350	0	39	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	50→52	39→40	63→65	45	238/292/325	87	288	6	42	19%	6%	76	-0.4	230/294/306	76	290	4	37	20%	8%	72	-0.7	225/302/289	64	290	2	42	21%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Bryce Johnson 2024 · MLB	28	51→54	43→45	62→60	44	240/306/355	114	332	10	32	29%	8%	88	+0.4	238/310/342	104	325	7	28	27%	8%	86	+0.3	237/312/330	93	329	4	33	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Tommy Murphy 2009 · MLB	29	50→53	40→45	55→60	43	237/284/332	95	310	7	29	25%	6%	74	-0.6	218/275/310	92	291	7	25	26%	7%	66	-1.1	186/247/252	65	251	4	26	26%	7%	39	-1.6
✕Delino DeShields 2020 · MLB	27	49→56	40→45	58→65	52	231/310/323	91	299	7	32	24%	10%	82	+0.0	221/306/306	85	303	6	28	26%	10%	77	-0.3	203/300/264	60	295	3	32	28%	11%	64	-0.7
✕Johnny Davis 2018 · AA	28	50→54	36→30	59→65	39	233/274/296	62	327	3	33	29%	5%	61	-1.5	229/271/299	70	313	4	40	27%	5%	61	-1.5	236/277/299	63	310	4	58	24%	4%	61	-1.2
✕Cade Gotta 2019 · AAA	27	49→51	40→45	59→55	45	235/283/335	100	293	6	32	22%	6%	74	-0.5	236/302/347	111	306	8	21	24%	8%	84	+0.2	245/324/354	109	318	8	21	23%	10%	95	+0.3
✕Josh Prince 2015 · AAA	27	44→46	40	54→60	49	213/286/303	90	274	8	30	24%	9%	70	-0.9	214/280/311	97	278	9	23	25%	8%	68	-1.0	209/278/295	85	286	8	18	28%	9%	61	-0.6
✕Roemon Fields 2019 · AAA	28	49→57	36→30	58→60	42	230/277/293	63	301	3	38	24%	6%	62	-1.4	222/276/300	78	282	5	24	22%	6%	64	-1.3	212/268/269	57	262	3	24	19%	6%	51	-1.3