Jonatan Clase
LF Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAATOR | 426 | .263/.349/.439 | 12 | 38 | 83 | — | .232/.297/.368 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLBTOR | 66 | .246/.303/.328 | 1 | 3 | 81 | -0.6 | |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 383 | .260/.352/.423 | 9 | 31 | 78 | — | .213/.279/.329 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBTOR | 112 | .210/.288/.300 | 2 | 3 | 68 | -0.9 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAATOR | 217 | .223/.325/.359 | 5 | 17 | 57 | — | .198/.274/.307 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBTOR | 25 | .273/.360/.545 | 2 | 0 | 153 | -0.0 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBTOR | 50 | .212/.283/.334 | 1 | 3 | 74 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 26 | MLBTOR | 132 | .211/.283/.334 | 3 | 9 | 74 | -0.2 |
Tools · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 286 | 223 | 67 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 56 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 300 | 439 | 444 | 883 | 143 | 387 | 20 | 18 | 388 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 57 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 245 | 339 | 388 | 727 | 143 | 303 | 26 | 11 | 325 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 499 | 423 | 113 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 133 | 8 | 55 | 10 | 267 | 374 | 463 | 838 | 196 | 358 | 27 | 13 | 371 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 489 | 414 | 92 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 64 | 137 | 6 | 62 | 11 | 222 | 335 | 396 | 731 | 174 | 294 | 28 | 13 | 327 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 106 | 87 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 333 | 453 | 701 | 1.154 | 368 | 423 | 26 | 17 | 490 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 45 | 40 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 50 | 143 | 27 | 9 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 66 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 303 | 328 | 631 | 82 | 326 | 26 | 5 | 289 | 81 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 426 | 369 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 110 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 263 | 349 | 439 | 788 | 176 | 335 | 26 | 12 | 345 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 112 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 288 | 300 | 588 | 90 | 271 | 25 | 9 | 270 | 68 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 352 | 310 | 79 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 90 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 255 | 336 | 403 | 739 | 148 | 336 | 26 | 10 | 329 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 31 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 533 | 714 | 1.248 | 381 | 357 | 19 | 23 | 510 | 231 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 25 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 545 | 905 | 273 | 333 | 32 | 12 | 395 | 153 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 217 | 184 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 54 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 223 | 325 | 359 | 684 | 136 | 281 | 25 | 13 | 305 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 203 | 183 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 53 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 230 | 302 | 339 | 641 | 109 | 296 | 26 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -3 | -13 | +4 | -1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 286 | 238 | 45 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 68 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 189 | 306 | 265 | 570 | 76 | 246 | 24 | 13 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 57 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 196 | 268 | 333 | 601 | 137 | 246 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 499 | 444 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 186 | 8 | 55 | 10 | 203 | 288 | 354 | 641 | 151 | 309 | 37 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 489 | 433 | 84 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 45 | 160 | 6 | 62 | 11 | 194 | 279 | 351 | 630 | 157 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 106 | 91 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 36 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 264 | 368 | 560 | 928 | 297 | 344 | 34 | 13 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 66 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 303 | 328 | 631 | 82 | 326 | 26 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 426 | 383 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 132 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 232 | 297 | 368 | 665 | 136 | 313 | 31 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 112 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 288 | 300 | 588 | 90 | 271 | 25 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 352 | 319 | 68 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 109 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 213 | 279 | 329 | 608 | 116 | 296 | 31 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 25 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 545 | 905 | 273 | 333 | 32 | 12 | 394 | 153 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 217 | 192 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 65 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 198 | 274 | 307 | 581 | 109 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 286 | 238 | 45 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 68 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 189 | 306 | 265 | 570 | 76 | 256 | 24 | 13 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 286 | 223 | 67 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 56 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 300 | 439 | 444 | 883 | 143 | 387 | 20 | 18 | 388 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 57 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 196 | 268 | 333 | 601 | 137 | 286 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Mariners | — | 57 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 245 | 339 | 388 | 727 | 143 | 303 | 26 | 11 | 325 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 499 | 444 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 186 | 8 | 55 | 10 | 203 | 288 | 354 | 641 | 151 | 317 | 37 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 499 | 423 | 113 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 133 | 8 | 55 | 10 | 267 | 374 | 463 | 838 | 196 | 358 | 27 | 13 | 371 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 640 | 564 | 114 | 25 | 7 | 20 | 63 | 211 | 8 | 81 | 15 | 202 | 291 | 378 | 669 | 176 | 278 | 33 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 640 | 541 | 125 | 28 | 9 | 20 | 86 | 177 | 8 | 81 | 15 | 231 | 345 | 427 | 772 | 196 | 301 | 28 | 13 | 343 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 444 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 149 | 2 | 41 | 14 | 234 | 298 | 363 | 660 | 128 | 322 | 30 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 430 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 127 | 2 | 41 | 14 | 260 | 343 | 423 | 766 | 163 | 333 | 26 | 11 | 337 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 495 | 445 | 94 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 147 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 211 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 106 | 295 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 495 | 431 | 107 | 30 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 124 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 248 | 337 | 394 | 732 | 146 | 322 | 25 | 11 | 327 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 214 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 206 | 283 | 332 | 614 | 126 | 275 | 30 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 206 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 62 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 228 | 329 | 379 | 708 | 150 | 286 | 26 | 13 | 315 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 286 | 244 | 45 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 68 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 184 | 306 | 258 | 564 | 74 | 246 | 24 | 13 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 57 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 192 | 268 | 327 | 595 | 135 | 246 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 499 | 443 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 186 | 8 | 55 | 10 | 203 | 288 | 354 | 642 | 151 | 309 | 37 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 640 | 564 | 114 | 25 | 7 | 20 | 63 | 211 | 8 | 81 | 15 | 202 | 291 | 378 | 669 | 176 | 277 | 33 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 449 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 149 | 2 | 41 | 14 | 232 | 298 | 359 | 656 | 127 | 315 | 30 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 495 | 448 | 94 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 147 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 210 | 282 | 315 | 597 | 105 | 290 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 203 | 283 | 327 | 610 | 124 | 263 | 30 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 449 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 149 | 2 | 41 | 14 | 232 | 298 | 359 | 656 | 127 | 315 | 30 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 495 | 448 | 94 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 147 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 210 | 282 | 315 | 597 | 105 | 290 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 203 | 283 | 327 | 610 | 124 | 263 | 30 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 45% | 263 | 237 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 211 | 282 | 333 | 616 | 122 | 274 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -8 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 45% | 50 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 283 | 334 | 617 | 122 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 51% | 259 | 233 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 71 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 211 | 282 | 333 | 615 | 122 | 274 | 27 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -8 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 51% | 132 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 211 | 283 | 334 | 617 | 122 | 275 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -4 | +1 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 335 | 302 | 67 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 89 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 222 | 294 | 334 | 629 | 113 | 286 | 27 | 8 | 286 | 74 | -8 | +2 | -3 | -15 | +7 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 130 | 19 | 0 | 16 | 52 | 173 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 222 | 294 | 336 | 630 | 114 | 286 | 27 | 8 | 286 | 74 | -16 | +3 | -6 | -28 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3080 | 2732 | 570 | 113 | 25 | 66 | 278 | 957 | 32 | 299 | 64 | 209 | 289 | 341 | 630 | 132 | 291 | 31 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -15 | +4 | -3 | -17 | +12 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 120 | 24 | 5 | 14 | 59 | 202 | 7 | 63 | 14 | 208 | 290 | 340 | 629 | 132 | 290 | 31 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -18 | +4 | -4 | -19 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 217 PAwOBA .300 → .252 (−48)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 19.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .300 → .252; ISO .136 → .109; BABIP .281 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 352 PAwOBA .321 → .265 (−56)K% 25.6% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.57% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.94% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.36% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.050 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.050 | 8.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.18% | ÷0.847 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .321 → .265; ISO .148 → .118; BABIP .336 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 426 PAwOBA .341 → .291 (−50)K% 25.8% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.82% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.50% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.17% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 22.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.63% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .341 → .291; ISO .176 → .143; BABIP .335 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 489 PAwOBA .322 → .276 (−46)K% 28.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.02% | ÷1.041 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.13% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.050 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷0.983 | ×0.840 | ×0.969 | ×1.050 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.103 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×1.050 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 4.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .322 → .276; ISO .174 → .163; BABIP .294 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 106 PAwOBA .476 → .369 (−108)K% 26.4% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.42% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.98% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 12.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.018 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.25% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 11.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.86% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 9.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .476 → .369; ISO .368 → .283; BABIP .423 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AModesto Nuts · 499 PAwOBA .363 → .279 (−84)K% 26.7% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.65% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.03% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.10% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.79% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.030 | 3.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .363 → .279; ISO .196 → .158; BABIP .358 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Mariners · 57 PAwOBA .322 → .232 (−90)K% 26.3% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷0.992 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 22.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.030 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.904 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 5.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 81, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .232; ISO .143 → .110; BABIP .303 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Mariners · 286 PAwOBA .382 → .261 (−121)K% 19.6% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 12.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 18.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.58% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .382 → .261; ISO .143 → .087; BABIP .387 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .