Mike Antico
OF Hartford Yard Goats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 523 | .262/.328/.416 | 16 | 33 | 58 | — | .217/.270/.326 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 411 | .275/.366/.408 | 7 | 24 | 79 | — | .234/.307/.346 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AACOL | 239 | .162/.298/.274 | 5 | 19 | 32 | — | .138/.252/.226 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBCOL | 3 | .207/.284/.320 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBCOL | 39 | .207/.282/.317 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 159 | 143 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 266 | 340 | 490 | 829 | 224 | 308 | 21 | 8 | 364 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 275 | 240 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 67 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 233 | 328 | 383 | 712 | 150 | 289 | 24 | 11 | 322 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 321 | 274 | 70 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 76 | 4 | 37 | 3 | 255 | 361 | 405 | 766 | 150 | 330 | 24 | 13 | 344 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 49 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 200 | 347 | 450 | 797 | 250 | 250 | 35 | 14 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 545 | 476 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 54 | 126 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 265 | 352 | 447 | 799 | 183 | 322 | 23 | 10 | 353 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 224 | 203 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 261 | 324 | 433 | 758 | 172 | 311 | 22 | 8 | 334 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 276 | 244 | 66 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 54 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 270 | 339 | 418 | 758 | 148 | 310 | 20 | 8 | 333 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 23 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 217 | 227 | 445 | 45 | 267 | 30 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 381 | 326 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 94 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 279 | 372 | 420 | 792 | 141 | 364 | 25 | 11 | 351 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 30 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 259 | 559 | 37 | 316 | 27 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 74 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 175 | 329 | 263 | 592 | 88 | 220 | 24 | 9 | 274 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 165 | 140 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 62 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 157 | 285 | 279 | 563 | 121 | 243 | 38 | 8 | 269 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 159 | 148 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 203 | 258 | 372 | 629 | 169 | 250 | 27 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 275 | 250 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 80 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 188 | 259 | 300 | 559 | 112 | 249 | 29 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 321 | 286 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 91 | 4 | 37 | 3 | 203 | 285 | 311 | 596 | 108 | 271 | 28 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 545 | 492 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 211 | 281 | 346 | 627 | 134 | 274 | 29 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 224 | 208 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 62 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 216 | 266 | 346 | 612 | 130 | 277 | 28 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 276 | 252 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 70 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 218 | 273 | 310 | 583 | 91 | 266 | 25 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 381 | 338 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 118 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 234 | 307 | 346 | 654 | 112 | 322 | 31 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 74 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 169 | 300 | 254 | 554 | 85 | 207 | 30 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 165 | 145 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 76 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 124 | 230 | 214 | 444 | 90 | 217 | 46 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 159 | 148 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 203 | 258 | 372 | 629 | 169 | 250 | 27 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 159 | 143 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 266 | 340 | 490 | 829 | 224 | 308 | 21 | 8 | 364 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 645 | 579 | 113 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 185 | 10 | 75 | 9 | 195 | 274 | 306 | 580 | 111 | 264 | 29 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 645 | 554 | 134 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 78 | 160 | 10 | 75 | 9 | 242 | 346 | 399 | 745 | 157 | 308 | 25 | 12 | 336 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 545 | 492 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 211 | 281 | 346 | 627 | 134 | 279 | 29 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 545 | 476 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 54 | 126 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 265 | 352 | 447 | 799 | 183 | 322 | 23 | 10 | 353 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 481 | 103 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 137 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 267 | 316 | 583 | 102 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 523 | 469 | 123 | 16 | 4 | 16 | 40 | 110 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 262 | 328 | 416 | 743 | 154 | 308 | 21 | 8 | 328 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 364 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 231 | 307 | 338 | 645 | 107 | 331 | 31 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 411 | 353 | 97 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 102 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 275 | 366 | 408 | 774 | 133 | 360 | 25 | 11 | 345 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 204 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 97 | 17 | 19 | 1 | 132 | 247 | 206 | 453 | 74 | 224 | 41 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 239 | 197 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 80 | 17 | 19 | 1 | 162 | 298 | 274 | 572 | 112 | 235 | 33 | 9 | 270 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 159 | 147 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 204 | 258 | 374 | 632 | 170 | 250 | 27 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 645 | 577 | 113 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 185 | 10 | 75 | 9 | 196 | 274 | 307 | 581 | 111 | 261 | 29 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 545 | 492 | 104 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 156 | 10 | 52 | 8 | 211 | 281 | 346 | 627 | 134 | 274 | 29 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 483 | 103 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 137 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 213 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 101 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 368 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 228 | 307 | 334 | 641 | 106 | 322 | 31 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 206 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 97 | 17 | 19 | 1 | 131 | 247 | 204 | 451 | 73 | 214 | 41 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 483 | 103 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 137 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 213 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 101 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 368 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 228 | 307 | 334 | 641 | 106 | 322 | 31 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 206 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 97 | 17 | 19 | 1 | 131 | 247 | 204 | 451 | 73 | 214 | 41 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 2% | 289 | 260 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 92 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 197 | 275 | 298 | 572 | 100 | 281 | 32 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -12 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 284 | 320 | 604 | 112 | 294 | 33 | 0 | 275 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 23% | 170 | 152 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 54 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 273 | 295 | 569 | 99 | 280 | 32 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -8 | +1 | -2 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 23% | 39 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 110 | 292 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 63 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 39 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 282 | 314 | 596 | 114 | 273 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 64 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 117 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 200 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 201 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 117 | 273 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 64 | -29 | +7 | -8 | -4 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2845 | 2558 | 519 | 97 | 16 | 53 | 196 | 848 | 62 | 225 | 32 | 203 | 276 | 315 | 591 | 113 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -14 | +2 | -2 | -2 | +7 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 45 | 194 | 14 | 51 | 7 | 204 | 277 | 317 | 594 | 113 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -28 | +4 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 165 PAwOBA .262 → .200 (−63)K% 37.6% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 5.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 15.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .262 → .200; ISO .121 → .086; BABIP .243 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 74 PAwOBA .279 → .248 (−31)K% 24.3% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 7.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .279 → .248; ISO .088 → .072; BABIP .220 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 381 PAwOBA .347 → .287 (−60)K% 24.7% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.67% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.02% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.29% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 24.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.05% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.02% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .347 → .287; ISO .141 → .113; BABIP .364 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 276 PAwOBA .328 → .253 (−74)K% 19.6% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷0.943 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 23.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.940 | ×0.840 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 2.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.74% | ÷1.386 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .328 → .253; ISO .148 → .092; BABIP .310 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 224 PAwOBA .326 → .262 (−64)K% 21.9% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×1.018 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×1.018 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×1.018 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .326 → .262; ISO .172 → .127; BABIP .311 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 545 PAwOBA .346 → .274 (−72)K% 23.1% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.12% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 20.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.14% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .346 → .274; ISO .183 → .139; BABIP .322 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 321 PAwOBA .338 → .263 (−75)K% 23.7% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷1.064 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.72% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷0.989 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 86, K 113, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .263; ISO .150 → .113; BABIP .330 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 275 PAwOBA .315 → .251 (−64)K% 24.4% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.36% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.81% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .251; ISO .150 → .118; BABIP .289 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .