Christian Zazueta

Christian Zazueta P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2030

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 124 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.68

FIP3.68

K%27.8%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%22.4%

ROS IP124

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5560

CMD4560

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$11M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$10M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+1.7	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$33M		$59M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	4.9%	7.59	5.30	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	26.3%	6.3%	20.0%	4.2%	7.59	4.04	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	2.3%	3.29	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.29	3.60	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	3.0%	5.20	3.30	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	29.7%	5.9%	23.8%	2.6%	2.41	2.76	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	35.3%	4.9%	30.4%	3.4%	3.65	2.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	24	24	124	524	145	28	18	100%	5.2	27.8%	5.3%	22.4%	3.4%	3.68	3.68	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	128	542	151	28	18	100%	5.3	27.9%	5.2%	22.7%	3.3%	3.66	3.61	+2.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	132	555	156	29	18	100%	5.7	28.0%	5.2%	22.8%	3.3%	3.62	3.57	+2.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	133	562	158	29	18	100%	5.8	28.1%	5.2%	22.9%	3.2%	3.59	3.54	+2.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	133	562	158	29	18	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.2%	22.9%	3.2%	3.57	3.54	+2.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	131	554	156	29	18	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.3%	22.9%	3.3%	3.57	3.58	+2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	127	537	151	29	18	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.5%	22.6%	3.4%	3.62	3.66	+1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	122	513	143	29	18	100%	6.1	27.8%	5.7%	22.1%	3.5%	3.72	3.79	+1.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	482	132	29	18	100%	6.0	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	3.7%	3.87	3.97	+1.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	106	450	122	28	18	100%	5.9	27.1%	6.3%	20.7%	4.0%	4.05	4.17	+0.9
2037	32	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	98	416	111	28	18	100%	6.2	26.6%	6.7%	19.9%	4.2%	4.26	4.40	+0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	90	382	100	27	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	4.5%	4.49	4.65	+0.3
2039	34	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	347	89	27	17	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	4.8%	4.75	4.92	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	64	270	75	14	9	100%	5.3	27.9%	5.2%	22.7%	3.5%	3.74	3.69	+1.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	92	388	109	20	13	100%	5.8	28.0%	5.2%	22.8%	3.4%	3.70	3.65	+1.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	108	456	128	24	15	100%	6.0	28.1%	5.2%	22.9%	3.4%	3.67	3.62	+1.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	117	494	139	26	17	100%	5.8	28.2%	5.2%	22.9%	3.4%	3.65	3.62	+1.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	119	502	141	27	17	100%	6.0	28.2%	5.3%	22.9%	3.4%	3.65	3.66	+1.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	117	494	139	27	17	100%	5.8	28.0%	5.5%	22.6%	3.5%	3.70	3.74	+1.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	113	477	133	27	18	100%	5.9	27.8%	5.7%	22.1%	3.7%	3.80	3.87	+1.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	107	452	124	27	18	100%	5.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	3.9%	3.96	4.06	+1.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	115	27	18	100%	5.9	27.1%	6.3%	20.7%	4.1%	4.14	4.26	+0.9
2037	32	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	94	397	106	27	17	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.7%	19.9%	4.4%	4.36	4.50	+0.6
2038	33	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	86	363	95	26	17	100%	6.1	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	4.7%	4.59	4.75	+0.2
2039	34	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	74	312	80	24	16	100%	6.2	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	5.0%	4.86	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	202	1193	5035	1385	296	192	100%	5.9	27.5%	5.9%	21.6%	3.8%	3.95	3.62	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	232	50	32	100%	5.9	27.5%	5.9%	21.6%	3.8%	3.95	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		79	70	315	1290	287	97	47	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	818	182	61	30	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Zazueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.68	27.8%	5.3%	3.4%	—	3.57	28.0%	22.8%	393	-0.11	—	—	—
Peyton Battenfield R 2021 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.2%	5.3%	3.7%	.232	5.45	13.8%	4.9%	363	+1.87	3.58	466	79
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	78
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.58	23.9%	16.9%	513	+0.45	3.13	834	77
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.97	18.4%	10.8%	320	+1.56	3.41	558	76
Roy Oswalt R 2001 · 2.71 FIP	23	SP-	2.71	25.0%	3.8%	2.3%	.285	3.14	21.3%	15.4%	597	+0.43	2.71	2,245	76
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	76
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	76
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	76
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	74
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	74
Luke Weaver R 2016 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.5%	4.8%	2.5%	.317	3.45	23.2%	16.3%	339	+0.45	2.54	1,043	74
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	74
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	73
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	73
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.15	19.3%	12.4%	283	+0.22	3.04	593	72
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	72
Logan Gilbert R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	22	SP	3.04	24.6%	7.2%	2.0%	.278	3.42	23.8%	18.0%	305	+0.38	3.04	1,156	71
Logan Henderson R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP	4.38	25.1%	4.7%	5.1%	.241	3.11	28.4%	21.7%	225	-1.27	2.69	386	71
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.03	19.7%	12.5%	153	-0.63	3.62	266	71
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	117	27.6%	5.8%	1.40	3.83
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Andrew Heaney ('25)	5.7	103	23.8%	7.0%	1.58	4.57
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77