Christian Zazueta

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP50OGV rank#23ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	19	11	71	5.20	3.30	28.5%	7.6%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.59
2025	20	MIX2 levels	17	17	67	2.41	2.76	29.7%	5.9%	—	K 22.0% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.89
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	22	104	3.65	2.66	35.3%	4.9%	—	K 27.9% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	1	1	7	3.63	3.63	28.1%	5.1%	0.1
2028PROJ52% MLB	23	MLBLAD	12	12	64	3.70	3.65	28.2%	5.1%	1.4
2029PROJ71% MLB	24	MLBLAD	16	16	88	3.66	3.61	28.3%	5.1%	2.0

Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$9M2033Arb-3$12M

Career WAR0.9 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 61%

CompsPeyton Battenfield (age 23) · Tanner Bibee (age 23) · Kyle Brnovich (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.63

FIP3.63

K%28.1%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%22.9%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$72M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+2.4	$14M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+2.3	$13M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$12M	+2.2	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$30M		$76M	+$58M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	4.9%	7.59	5.30	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	26.3%	6.3%	20.0%	4.2%	7.59	4.04	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	2.3%	3.29	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.29	3.60	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	3.0%	5.20	3.30	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	29.7%	5.9%	23.8%	2.6%	2.41	2.76	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	35.3%	4.9%	30.4%	3.4%	3.65	2.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	1	1	7	30	8	2	1	100%	7.0	28.1%	5.1%	22.9%	3.4%	3.63	3.63	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	124	522	147	27	17	100%	5.4	28.2%	5.1%	23.1%	3.3%	3.62	3.57	+2.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	124	522	148	26	17	100%	5.6	28.3%	5.1%	23.2%	3.3%	3.58	3.53	+2.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	116	491	139	25	16	100%	5.8	28.4%	5.1%	23.3%	3.2%	3.55	3.51	+2.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	116	491	139	25	16	100%	6.1	28.4%	5.1%	23.3%	3.2%	3.53	3.50	+2.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	483	137	25	16	100%	6.0	28.4%	5.2%	23.2%	3.3%	3.54	3.54	+2.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	111	467	132	25	16	100%	6.2	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	3.4%	3.59	3.62	+2.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	105	442	124	25	16	100%	6.2	28.0%	5.5%	22.5%	3.5%	3.69	3.75	+2.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	97	409	113	24	15	100%	6.0	27.7%	5.8%	21.8%	3.7%	3.83	3.93	+1.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	88	369	101	23	15	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	4.0%	4.01	4.13	+1.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	326	87	21	14	100%	5.9	26.8%	6.6%	20.2%	4.2%	4.22	4.36	+0.9
2038	33	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	280	74	20	13	100%	6.0	26.3%	7.0%	19.3%	4.5%	4.45	4.61	+0.6
2039	34	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	56	236	61	18	11	100%	6.2	25.8%	7.5%	18.3%	4.8%	4.71	4.88	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	64	270	76	14	9	100%	5.3	28.2%	5.1%	23.1%	3.5%	3.70	3.65	+1.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	88	372	105	19	13	100%	5.5	28.3%	5.1%	23.2%	3.4%	3.66	3.61	+2.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	95	401	114	20	14	100%	5.9	28.4%	5.1%	23.3%	3.4%	3.63	3.59	+2.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	102	431	122	22	15	100%	6.0	28.4%	5.1%	23.3%	3.4%	3.61	3.58	+2.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	104	439	125	23	15	100%	6.1	28.4%	5.2%	23.2%	3.4%	3.62	3.62	+2.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	102	431	122	23	15	100%	6.0	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.67	3.70	+2.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	98	414	116	23	15	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.5%	22.5%	3.7%	3.77	3.83	+1.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	91	384	106	22	15	100%	6.1	27.7%	5.8%	21.8%	3.9%	3.92	4.02	+1.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	83	350	96	22	14	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	4.1%	4.10	4.22	+1.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	73	308	83	20	14	100%	6.1	26.8%	6.6%	20.2%	4.4%	4.32	4.46	+0.9
2038	33	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	63	266	70	19	12	100%	6.3	26.3%	7.0%	19.3%	4.7%	4.55	4.71	+0.6
2039	34	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	56	16	11	100%	6.4	25.8%	7.5%	18.3%	5.0%	4.82	4.99	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	172	1014	4283	1191	243	162	100%	5.9	27.8%	5.7%	22.1%	3.8%	3.88	3.54	+23.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	235	48	32	100%	5.9	27.8%	5.7%	22.1%	3.8%	3.88	3.54	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		79	70	315	1290	287	97	47	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+22.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	818	182	61	30	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 55 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.88 (+1.07)K% 35.8% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.78%	—	×0.810	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.67%	—	×1.100	4.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.13%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 49 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.57 (+1.16)K% 34.7% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.74%	—	×0.770	26.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.150	7.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 66 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.89 (+1.12)K% 29.7% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.74%	—	×0.740	22.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.95%	—	×1.180	7.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.055	×1.300	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 52 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.70 (+1.15)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.740	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.180	10.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.072	×1.300	3.66%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 19 IPFIP 2.44 → 4.22 (+1.79)K% 32.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.86%	—	×0.680	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.29%	—	×1.250	5.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.942	×1.400	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL NYY Yankees · 52 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.20 (+0.58)K% 23.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.58%	—	×0.680	16.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.250	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷1.724	×1.400	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL NYY Yankees · 21 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.30 (+1.31)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.680	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.250	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	4.21%	÷1.195	×1.400	4.93%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Zazueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	3.54	28.3%	23.2%	364	-0.09	—	—	—
Peyton Battenfield R 2021 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.2%	5.3%	3.7%	.232	5.45	13.8%	4.9%	363	+1.87	3.58	466	78
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.58	23.9%	16.9%	513	+0.45	3.13	834	77
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	76
Roy Oswalt R 2001 · 2.71 FIP	23	SP-	2.71	25.0%	3.8%	2.3%	.285	3.14	21.3%	15.4%	597	+0.43	2.71	2,245	76
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.97	18.4%	10.8%	320	+1.56	3.41	558	76
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	74
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	74
Luke Weaver R 2016 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.5%	4.8%	2.5%	.317	3.45	23.2%	16.3%	339	+0.45	2.54	1,043	73
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	73
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	73
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	72
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	72
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	72
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	71
Logan Henderson R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP	4.38	25.1%	4.7%	5.1%	.241	3.11	28.4%	21.7%	225	-1.27	2.69	386	71
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	71
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.15	19.3%	12.4%	283	+0.22	3.04	593	71
Shane Baz R 2021 · 2.82 FIP	22	SP	2.82	32.2%	4.6%	3.4%	.252	3.74	23.1%	14.0%	159	+0.92	2.82	741	70
Logan Gilbert R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	22	SP	3.04	24.6%	7.2%	2.0%	.278	3.42	23.8%	18.0%	305	+0.38	3.04	1,156	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	101	27.9%	5.6%	1.38	3.76
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Rick Aguilera ('85-'00, 22 WAR*)	6.5	81	24.3%*	6.1%*	1.18*	3.65*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Greg Swindell ('86-'02, 30 WAR*)	11.2	131	20.9%*	5.3%*	1.32*	3.99*