Christian Zazueta

Christian Zazueta P Tulsa Drillers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%23.1%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$51M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5060

CMD4560

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+2.3	$14M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$13M	+2.4	$13M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$19M	+2.3	$12M	+$2M
Totals		$42M		$66M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	4.9%	7.59	5.30	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	26.3%	6.3%	20.0%	4.2%	7.59	4.04	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	2.3%	3.29	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	2.3%	3.29	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.29	3.60	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.8%	5.20	4.59	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	3.0%	5.20	3.30	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.2%	2.41	3.89	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	29.7%	5.9%	23.8%	2.6%	2.41	2.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	22	104	408	144	20	14	96%	4.5	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	4.2%	3.65	3.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	LAD	11	10	49	190	66	12	5	91%	4.4	34.7%	6.3%	28.4%	2.6%	3.88	2.41	—
2026	21	AA RAW	LAD	12	12	55	218	78	8	9	100%	4.6	35.8%	3.7%	32.1%	4.1%	3.44	2.81	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	8	34	8	2	1	100%	4.1	23.1%	6.8%	16.3%	3.1%	4.07	4.07	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	112	442	152	22	15	—	—	34.3%	5.0%	29.3%	3.4%	3.68	3.76	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	28	28	143	602	145	39	18	100%	5.1	24.0%	6.5%	17.6%	3.0%	3.99	3.92	+1.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	33	33	175	739	182	46	22	100%	5.3	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.81	+2.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	32	32	179	757	190	46	22	100%	5.6	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	2.9%	3.81	3.74	+2.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	31	31	180	760	193	46	22	100%	5.8	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	2.9%	3.75	3.70	+2.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	30	30	180	760	195	45	22	100%	6.0	25.6%	6.0%	19.6%	2.9%	3.70	3.67	+2.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	30	30	177	749	192	45	22	100%	5.9	25.6%	6.0%	19.5%	3.0%	3.71	3.71	+2.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	726	185	45	22	100%	5.9	25.5%	6.2%	19.3%	3.1%	3.76	3.80	+2.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	164	694	175	45	22	100%	6.1	25.2%	6.4%	18.8%	3.2%	3.86	3.93	+1.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	154	652	162	44	22	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.7%	18.1%	3.4%	4.01	4.10	+1.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	144	608	149	43	22	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.6%	4.19	4.31	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	133	562	135	42	22	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.5%	16.6%	3.9%	4.40	4.53	+0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	122	516	121	41	21	100%	6.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	4.2%	4.63	4.78	+0.2
2039	34	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	111	470	108	40	21	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	4.5%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	71	300	72	19	9	100%	5.1	24.0%	6.5%	17.6%	3.1%	4.06	3.99	+0.8
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	128	540	133	34	17	100%	5.3	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	3.1%	3.96	3.88	+1.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	149	629	158	38	19	100%	5.5	25.1%	6.1%	19.0%	3.1%	3.88	3.81	+2.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	159	671	170	40	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.0%	19.4%	3.0%	3.82	3.77	+2.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	28	28	165	697	178	42	21	100%	5.9	25.6%	6.0%	19.6%	3.0%	3.77	3.74	+2.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	164	692	177	42	21	100%	6.1	25.6%	6.0%	19.5%	3.1%	3.78	3.78	+2.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	161	680	173	42	22	100%	6.0	25.5%	6.2%	19.3%	3.2%	3.83	3.87	+2.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	156	659	166	42	22	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.4%	18.8%	3.3%	3.93	4.00	+1.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	147	621	154	42	22	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.7%	18.1%	3.6%	4.09	4.18	+1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	137	578	142	41	22	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.8%	4.27	4.39	+0.9
2037	32	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	127	536	129	40	22	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.5%	16.6%	4.1%	4.49	4.62	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	116	490	115	39	21	100%	6.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	4.3%	4.73	4.88	+0.2
2039	34	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	98	36	20	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	4.7%	4.99	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		304	304	1781	7520	1867	497	259	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	3.4%	4.08	3.73	+25.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	56	29	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	3.4%	4.08	3.73	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		79	70	315	1290	287	97	47	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+21.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	818	182	61	30	89%	4.0	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.94	4.16	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Zazueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	23.1%	6.8%	3.1%	—	3.82	24.6%	18.4%	497	-0.25	—	—	—
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	87
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	86
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	85
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	83
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	82
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	81
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	81
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	81
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	81
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	81
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	80
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	24.7%	6.6%	1.26	4.00
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70