Christian Zazueta

Christian Zazueta P Great Lakes Loons

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95

ERA4.13

FIP4.13

K%22.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD3560

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	4.2%	7.59	4.92	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	8	8	21	95	25	6	4	100%	2.7	26.3%	6.3%	20.0%	4.2%	7.59	4.04	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	1.6%	3.29	3.83	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	52	212	50	16	6	100%	4.3	23.6%	7.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.29	3.60	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	3.7%	5.20	4.53	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	19	11	71	302	86	23	9	58%	3.7	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	3.0%	5.20	3.30	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.0%	2.41	3.80	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	17	17	67	273	81	16	7	100%	4.0	29.7%	5.9%	23.8%	2.6%	2.41	2.76	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	15	14	66	254	93	13	8	93%	4.4	28.6%	5.9%	22.8%	3.9%	3.43	3.55	+0.9
ROS	21	MLB	LAD	10	10	46	196	45	14	6	100%	4.6	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.0%	4.13	4.13	+0.2
ROS	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	112	450	138	27	14	—	—	30.6%	6.0%	24.6%	3.1%	3.72	3.79	+2.1
2026 FULL	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.08	3.70	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	LAD	10	10	49	206	49	14	6	100%	4.9	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	3.0%	4.05	3.98	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	LAD	9	9	50	213	52	15	6	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.8%	17.7%	2.9%	3.96	3.88	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	LAD	9	9	52	219	55	15	6	100%	5.8	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	2.9%	3.88	3.81	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	LAD	9	9	52	221	56	15	6	100%	5.8	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	2.9%	3.82	3.77	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	LAD	9	9	52	221	56	15	6	100%	5.8	25.5%	6.6%	18.9%	2.9%	3.77	3.74	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	LAD	9	9	52	218	56	15	6	100%	5.7	25.5%	6.7%	18.8%	2.9%	3.78	3.78	+0.5
2027	22	MLB	LAD	5	5	24	101	24	7	3	100%	4.8	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	2.9%	4.01	3.94	+0.2
2028	23	MLB	LAD	7	7	37	156	38	11	4	100%	5.3	24.5%	6.8%	17.7%	2.8%	3.92	3.84	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	LAD	8	8	43	182	45	12	5	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	2.8%	3.84	3.77	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	LAD	8	8	46	194	49	13	5	100%	5.8	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	2.8%	3.78	3.73	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	LAD	8	8	48	203	52	13	6	100%	6.0	25.5%	6.6%	18.9%	2.8%	3.73	3.70	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	LAD	8	8	48	203	52	14	6	100%	6.0	25.5%	6.7%	18.8%	2.9%	3.74	3.74	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			43	43	246	1039	260	70	29	100%	5.7	25.1%	6.7%	18.4%	2.8%	3.81	3.39	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	211	57	24	100%	5.7	25.1%	6.7%	18.4%	2.8%	3.81	3.39	+4.7
Career	—			71	62	277	1136	246	89	37	87%	3.9	21.7%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	3.93	4.04	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			51	45	200	819	177	64	26	87%	3.9	21.7%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	3.93	4.04	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Zazueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	22.8%	7.2%	3.0%	—	3.89	24.4%	17.6%	151	-0.24	—	—	—
Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.03 FIP	21	SP	3.03	23.6%	8.1%	1.6%	.275	5.12	19.0%	8.7%	311	+2.09	3.03	420	85
Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	85
Mariano Salomon R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	21	SP-	3.11	21.0%	6.9%	1.7%	.282	4.98	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.87	2.47	158	85
Dylan DeLucia R 2028 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	84
Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	83
Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	25.0%	9.0%	2.8%	.341	3.99	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.32	3.44	259	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	82
Jaden Hamm R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	81
Angel Jimenez R 2025 · 3.27 FIP	20	SP	3.27	23.3%	5.1%	2.7%	.368	3.76	21.3%	10.7%	115	+0.49	3.04	194	81
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.9%	9.8%	2.7%	.175	4.15	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.15	3.59	307	81
Brendan Beck R 2029 · 3.18 FIP	24	SP	3.18	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.78	20.9%	13.1%	225	+0.60	3.18	256	81
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	80
Cody Stashak R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	21	SP	4.07	19.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.304	3.55	17.1%	9.8%	261	-0.52	1.99	467	80
Braxton Bragg R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	80
Cody Morris R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	80
Jarrod Cande R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.1%	7.3%	3.7%	.330	5.02	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.59	4.37	292	80
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	80
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	80
JR Ritchie R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	21	SP	3.94	22.8%	9.1%	2.9%	.260	4.47	20.4%	9.0%	234	+0.53	1.00	280	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	51	24.7%	6.8%	1.13	3.91
Sergio Romo ('21)	7	50	26.3%	7.0%	1.20	3.70
Joe Smith ('22)	7	44	22.5%	6.4%	1.08	3.67
Héctor Rondón ('20)	6	53	25.3%	7.1%	1.19	3.48
Nick Vincent ('20)	6	45	22.7%	6.3%	1.13	3.71
Chris Devenski ('24)	6	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04