Logan Henderson — OGILVIE

Logan Henderson P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 209 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8374vR 66

ERA3.19

FIP3.11

K%29.1%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%23.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5560

CMD5555

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p6026.9%

p9030.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.251

CT (16%)

SL (3%)

CH (35%)

FB-0.5 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2028	Arb-1	$7M	+2.2	$15M	+$9M
2029	Arb-2	$12M	+2.2	$14M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$17M	+2.0	$12M	+$0.5M
Totals		$37M		$57M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	0.0%	3.95	2.69	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	35.4%	9.2%	26.2%	0.0%	3.95	1.05	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	3.2%	2.75	3.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	3.2%	2.75	3.96	—
2023	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	35.2%	8.6%	26.6%	2.7%	2.75	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	24.8%	4.7%	20.1%	5.1%	3.32	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	24.8%	4.7%	20.1%	5.1%	3.32	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	32.8%	4.7%	28.1%	4.1%	3.32	3.17	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.42	+1.9
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.42	+1.9
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.22	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	21	114	427	132	23	15	100%	5.4	30.9%	5.4%	25.5%	3.5%	2.22	3.10	+2.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	23	21	112	426	136	26	12	91%	4.9	30.4%	5.8%	24.6%	2.7%	2.16	2.74	+3.1
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	23	21	112	426	136	26	12	91%	4.9	30.4%	5.8%	24.6%	2.7%	2.16	2.74	+3.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIL	7	5	24	98	37	11	0	71%	3.4	37.8%	11.2%	26.5%	0.0%	1.50	1.33	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIL	16	16	88	328	99	15	12	100%	5.5	30.2%	4.6%	25.6%	3.7%	2.34	3.14	+1.9
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIL	16	16	88	328	99	15	12	100%	5.5	30.2%	4.6%	25.6%	3.7%	2.34	3.14	+1.9
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	8	34	10	2	1	100%	8.1	29.1%	6.1%	23.0%	3.1%	3.19	3.11	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIL	1	1	8	34	10	2	1	100%	8.0	29.1%	6.1%	23.0%	3.3%	3.28	3.20	+0.2
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	120	460	146	28	13	—	—	31.7%	6.1%	25.6%	2.8%	2.23	2.77	+3.3
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	96	407	146	28	13	—	—	35.8%	6.9%	28.9%	3.2%	2.80	2.71	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	129	546	157	29	18	100%	5.9	28.8%	5.3%	23.4%	3.4%	3.62	3.56	+2.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	141	597	173	32	20	100%	5.9	29.0%	5.3%	23.7%	3.4%	3.57	3.54	+2.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	143	605	175	32	21	100%	6.0	29.0%	5.4%	23.6%	3.4%	3.58	3.58	+2.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	143	605	175	33	21	100%	6.0	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	3.5%	3.63	3.67	+2.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	137	578	163	33	21	100%	6.0	28.3%	5.8%	22.5%	3.7%	3.75	3.83	+1.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	129	543	150	33	21	100%	6.1	27.6%	6.0%	21.5%	3.9%	3.92	4.03	+1.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	120	507	136	32	21	100%	6.0	26.8%	6.4%	20.4%	4.1%	4.13	4.26	+0.9
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	111	469	122	32	20	100%	6.2	26.0%	6.8%	19.2%	4.3%	4.36	4.52	+0.5
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	102	430	108	31	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.2%	17.9%	4.6%	4.62	4.80	+0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	93	391	95	30	19	100%	6.2	24.3%	7.8%	16.5%	4.9%	4.91	5.10	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	123	519	149	28	18	100%	5.9	28.8%	5.3%	23.4%	3.5%	3.71	3.65	+2.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	134	566	164	30	20	100%	6.1	29.0%	5.3%	23.7%	3.5%	3.66	3.63	+2.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	136	574	166	31	21	100%	5.9	29.0%	5.4%	23.6%	3.6%	3.67	3.67	+2.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	136	574	166	32	21	100%	5.9	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	3.7%	3.73	3.77	+2.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	130	549	155	32	21	100%	5.9	28.3%	5.8%	22.5%	3.8%	3.85	3.93	+1.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	122	515	142	31	21	100%	6.1	27.6%	6.0%	21.5%	4.0%	4.03	4.14	+1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	114	481	129	31	21	100%	6.0	26.8%	6.4%	20.4%	4.3%	4.24	4.37	+0.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	105	443	115	30	20	100%	5.8	26.0%	6.8%	19.2%	4.5%	4.48	4.64	+0.5
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	103	30	20	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.2%	17.9%	4.8%	4.75	4.93	+0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	86	27	18	100%	6.0	24.3%	7.8%	16.5%	5.1%	5.04	5.23	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	220	1304	5451	1519	326	217	100%	5.9	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	4.0%	3.89	3.69	+19.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	836	233	50	33	100%	5.9	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	4.0%	3.89	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		88	85	389	1520	408	108	49	97%	4.4	26.8%	7.1%	19.7%	3.2%	2.85	3.51	+15.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	781	210	56	25	97%	4.4	26.8%	7.1%	19.7%	3.2%	2.85	3.51	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	26.5%	6.3%	3.2%	—	3.56	28.9%	23.6%	414	-0.22	—	—	—
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	82
Landon Knack R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	26.1%	3.7%	4.2%	.284	4.08	22.2%	13.9%	302	+0.40	2.77	544	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	70
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	68
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	66
Josh Winder R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	23.9%	5.1%	3.4%	.266	4.40	18.6%	10.8%	189	+0.80	2.66	426	66
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	65
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	65
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	64
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	64
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	63
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	62
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	62
Brian Van Belle R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP	4.86	19.1%	4.5%	5.1%	.332	5.14	18.0%	11.8%	372	+0.28	3.13	556	61
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.14	16.9%	6.5%	157	+1.28	3.86	278	61
Coleman Crow R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP	3.97	29.2%	7.7%	4.3%	.150	3.49	20.2%	13.5%	157	-0.48	2.31	372	60
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.92	16.8%	6.7%	145	+0.78	3.80	363	60
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	60
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	60
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	122	27.5%	6.1%	1.47	3.94
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01