Logan Henderson
P
Nashville Sounds
+1.4
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 209 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.6 · 2028
ERA3.14
FIP4.04
xFIP3.02
SIERA3.22
K%25.9%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%17.9%
IP91
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2028
K†6060
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p9033.3%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
CT (18%)
SL (7%)
CH (31%)
FB-0.5 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 7 | 7 | 14 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 2.69 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 18 | 79 | 301 | 106 | 26 | 8 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 2.75 | 3.99 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 19 | 19 | 81 | 317 | 104 | 15 | 13 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.32 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 21 | 20 | 103 | 411 | 120 | 32 | 12 | 26.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.15 | 3.46 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 97 | 30 | 12 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 3.14 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 100 | 421 | 114 | 37 | 12 | 27.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 3.05 | 3.58 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 114 | 34 | 14 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 3.67 | 4.01 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 121 | 37 | 15 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 4.00 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 123 | 38 | 15 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.03 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 123 | 38 | 15 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 118 | 37 | 15 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 112 | 37 | 15 | 24.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 105 | 36 | 15 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 99 | 35 | 14 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 91 | 34 | 14 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 84 | 33 | 14 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.71 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 77 | 32 | 13 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 69 | 31 | 13 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 67 | 288 | 1140 | 301 | 95 | 37 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.09 | 3.73 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 47 | 200 | 792 | 209 | 66 | 26 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.09 | 3.73 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan Henderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.01 | 25.8% | 17.9% | 329 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.11 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .243 | 4.69 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.58 | 3.11 | 110 | 77 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 74 |
| Diego Castillo R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.01 | 29.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .232 | 3.49 | 29.3% | 21.5% | 149 | +0.48 | 2.37 | 524 | 72 |
| Brendan McCurry R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.87 | 23.2% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .309 | 3.76 | 23.8% | 16.7% | 163 | +0.89 | 2.52 | 308 | 71 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.68 | 26.8% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .277 | 4.34 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 121 | +1.66 | 2.68 | 223 | 71 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 71 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 70 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 70 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 69 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 69 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.90 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .313 | 4.20 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.30 | 3.02 | 519 | 68 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 68 |
| Mitch White R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.65 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.43 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -1.22 | 2.49 | 626 | 67 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 67 |
| Hunter Wood R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.17 | 28.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 4.63 | 21.3% | 14.9% | 57 | +1.46 | 2.88 | 483 | 67 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 66 |
| Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 66 |
| Zack Weiss R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 66 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.54 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 438 | 66 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 66 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.6M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $5M | +1.6 | $14M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $9M | +1.6 | $14M | +$5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $14M | +1.6 | $14M | +$0.3M |
| Totals | $30M | $64M | +$34M | ||