Logan Henderson — OGILVIE

Logan Henderson P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 209 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9081vR 72

ERA3.15

FIP3.06

K%29.1%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%21.7%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5560

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p9030.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

CT (21%)

SL (4%)

CH (32%)

FB-0.5 (42%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.5	$12M	+$12M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$14M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$20M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$1M		$20M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	MIX	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	0.0%	3.95	2.69	—
2022	20	MIX	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	35.4%	9.2%	26.2%	0.0%	3.95	1.05	—
2023	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	3.0%	2.75	3.85	—
2023	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	35.2%	8.6%	26.6%	2.7%	2.75	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	25.3%	5.1%	20.2%	4.9%	3.32	4.31	—
2024	22	MIX	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	32.8%	4.7%	28.1%	4.1%	3.32	3.17	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	26.7%	8.1%	18.6%	2.7%	3.15	3.37	+2.4
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.22	+2.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	13	11	52	209	71	18	2	85%	4.0	31.8%	8.9%	23.0%	1.0%	2.41	2.06	+1.5
ROS	24	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	260	76	19	7	100%	5.6	29.1%	7.3%	21.7%	2.7%	3.15	3.06	+1.1
ROS	24	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	262	76	19	7	100%	5.6	29.1%	7.3%	21.7%	2.7%	3.12	3.03	+1.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB	MIL	—	—	114	469	147	37	9	—	—	31.3%	7.9%	23.4%	1.9%	2.81	2.60	+3.7
2026 FULL	24	MLB	MIL	—	—	90	380	147	37	9	—	—	38.6%	9.8%	28.8%	2.3%	3.54	2.36	+3.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIL	19	19	109	461	129	31	13	100%	5.7	28.0%	6.7%	21.4%	2.9%	3.60	3.54	+2.4
2028	26	MLB	MIL	20	20	121	511	142	34	15	100%	6.1	27.8%	6.7%	21.1%	2.9%	3.60	3.57	+2.6
2029	27	MLB	MIL	21	21	123	521	143	36	15	100%	5.9	27.5%	6.8%	20.7%	2.9%	3.64	3.64	+2.5
2030	28	MLB	MIL	21	21	123	521	142	36	16	100%	5.9	27.2%	7.0%	20.2%	3.0%	3.71	3.74	+2.4
2031	29	MLB	MIL	20	20	118	497	132	36	16	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.2%	19.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.90	+2.1
2032	30	MLB	MIL	18	18	111	467	121	35	16	100%	6.2	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.11	+1.7
2033	31	MLB	MIL	17	17	103	436	110	34	16	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.6%	4.20	4.34	+1.3
2034	32	MLB	MIL	16	16	96	403	98	33	16	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	3.9%	4.44	4.59	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	MIL	15	15	88	370	87	32	15	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	4.1%	4.70	4.87	+0.3
2036	34	MLB	MIL	13	13	80	337	83	28	15	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	4.4%	4.82	4.91	+0.1
2037	35	MLB	MIL	12	12	72	302	71	27	14	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	4.8%	5.07	5.24	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	MIL	18	18	104	439	123	29	12	100%	5.8	28.0%	6.7%	21.4%	2.8%	3.57	3.51	+2.3
2028	26	MLB	MIL	19	19	115	486	135	32	14	100%	6.1	27.8%	6.7%	21.1%	2.8%	3.57	3.54	+2.5
2029	27	MLB	MIL	20	20	117	494	136	34	14	100%	5.8	27.5%	6.8%	20.7%	2.9%	3.61	3.61	+2.5
2030	28	MLB	MIL	20	20	117	494	134	35	15	100%	5.8	27.2%	7.0%	20.2%	3.0%	3.68	3.71	+2.3
2031	29	MLB	MIL	19	19	112	473	126	34	15	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.2%	19.4%	3.1%	3.78	3.86	+2.0
2032	30	MLB	MIL	18	18	105	443	115	33	15	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.07	+1.6
2033	31	MLB	MIL	16	16	98	414	104	33	15	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.6%	4.16	4.30	+1.2
2034	32	MLB	MIL	15	15	91	384	94	32	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	3.8%	4.40	4.55	+0.7
2035	33	MLB	MIL	14	14	83	350	82	31	14	100%	5.9	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	4.1%	4.65	4.82	+0.2
2036	34	MLB	MIL	12	12	72	304	75	26	13	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	4.4%	4.77	4.86	-0.0
2037	35	MLB	MIL	10	10	61	258	61	23	12	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.0%	14.7%	4.7%	5.02	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			204	204	1191	5012	1329	375	166	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	3.3%	3.90	3.62	+24.7
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	842	223	63	28	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	3.3%	3.90	3.62	+4.2
Career	—			78	75	329	1303	350	107	38	96%	4.2	26.9%	8.2%	18.7%	2.9%	3.01	3.47	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—			47	46	200	792	213	65	23	96%	4.2	26.9%	8.2%	18.7%	2.9%	3.01	3.47	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	27.4%	6.8%	3.1%	—	3.59	27.8%	21.0%	354	-0.15	—	—	—
Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	24	SP	3.18	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.78	20.9%	13.1%	225	+0.60	3.18	256	75
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	22	SP	3.24	29.0%	9.7%	2.5%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	136	72
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	71
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	71
Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP	23	SP	2.74	21.9%	5.9%	1.4%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	144	69
Landon Knack R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP-	3.86	26.1%	3.7%	4.5%	.284	4.22	22.7%	13.8%	302	+0.36	3.67	509	69
Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	24	SP	3.52	29.9%	10.4%	2.9%	.267	3.23	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.85	613	69
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	68
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2027 · 2.55 FIP	25	SP	2.55	28.5%	6.0%	2.0%	.303	3.04	27.6%	20.2%	284	+0.49	2.55	374	68
Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	177	67
Ty Johnson R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP	3.77	29.0%	10.1%	3.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	244	67
Jack Flaherty R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	28.8%	9.4%	3.5%	.273	3.77	23.7%	14.2%	275	-0.04	3.11	1,499	66
Javi Rivera R 2026 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	21.7%	8.4%	0.7%	.293	7.44	14.0%	-0.5%	42	+4.72	2.72	229	66
Tyler Ivey R 2025 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	26.9%	9.6%	2.9%	.225	5.89	22.2%	8.9%	24	+2.27	2.96	304	65
Josh Winder R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	23.9%	5.1%	3.1%	.266	4.44	19.1%	10.7%	189	+1.01	2.66	426	65
Gabriel Hughes R 2026 · 2.58 FIP	24	SP-	2.58	24.4%	6.7%	1.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	210	65
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	65
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	24.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	259	65
Javier Perez R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	22	SP	4.03	21.9%	5.1%	3.9%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	2.20	166	65
Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	24	SP	3.44	22.7%	7.8%	2.3%	.291	4.56	17.8%	3.6%	59	+1.12	3.44	259	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	103	26.2%	7.5%	1.33	4.05
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17