Logan Henderson

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 209 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX4 levels	19	19	81	3.32	3.17	32.8%	4.7%	—	K 25.1% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.38
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	20	103	3.15	3.22	29.2%	7.8%	2.8	K 26.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.37
2026	24	MIX2 levels	25	23	122	2.28	2.92	31.3%	6.4%	3.8	K 30.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	12	12	70	3.23	3.58	27.8%	5.6%	1.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBMIL	16	16	95	3.52	3.65	28.0%	5.6%	2.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIL	16	16	98	3.62	3.69	28.0%	5.7%	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.250First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo30

Form2.45 ERA (proj 3.23) · K 28.2% (proj 27.8%) · BB 5.9% (proj 5.6%) · last 60d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsKutter Crawford (age 25) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Andy Ferguson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 73

ERA3.23

FIP3.58

K%27.8%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%22.2%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$50M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.257

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$12M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.1	$14M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.0	$13M	+$7M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.7	$10M	+$3M
Totals		$25M		$65M	+$46M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	0.0%	3.95	2.69	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	14	65	23	6	0	100%	2.0	35.4%	9.2%	26.2%	0.0%	3.95	1.05	—
2023	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	3.2%	2.75	3.96	—
2023	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	79	301	106	26	8	100%	4.4	35.2%	8.6%	26.6%	2.7%	2.75	2.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	5.1%	3.32	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	5.1%	3.32	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	81	317	104	15	13	100%	4.3	32.8%	4.7%	28.1%	4.1%	3.32	3.17	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	26.2%	7.2%	19.0%	2.9%	3.15	3.37	+2.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	26.2%	7.2%	19.0%	2.9%	3.15	3.37	+2.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	103	411	120	32	12	95%	4.9	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.9%	3.15	3.22	+2.8
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	30.2%	6.2%	24.1%	2.8%	2.28	2.89	+3.8
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	30.2%	6.2%	24.1%	2.8%	2.28	2.89	+3.8
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	122	469	147	30	14	92%	4.9	31.3%	6.4%	24.9%	3.0%	2.28	2.92	+3.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	23	124	470	143	27	17	100%	5.4	30.4%	5.7%	24.7%	3.6%	2.33	3.23	+3.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	12	12	70	296	82	17	9	100%	5.8	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.2%	3.23	3.58	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	100	422	118	24	13	100%	5.9	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.2%	3.43	3.56	+2.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	103	436	122	25	14	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.2%	3.53	3.60	+2.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	103	433	121	25	14	100%	6.0	27.8%	5.8%	22.0%	3.3%	3.62	3.68	+2.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	407	111	25	14	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.0%	21.2%	3.5%	3.75	3.84	+1.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	87	369	98	23	14	100%	5.8	26.6%	6.3%	20.2%	3.7%	3.93	4.05	+1.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	76	320	83	21	12	100%	5.8	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	3.9%	4.14	4.28	+1.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	62	262	65	19	11	100%	6.2	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	4.1%	4.38	4.54	+0.6
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	47	197	48	15	9	100%	5.8	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	4.4%	4.64	4.82	+0.3
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	5	5	32	134	31	11	6	100%	6.4	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	4.7%	4.93	5.12	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	95	401	112	22	13	100%	5.9	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.3%	3.52	3.65	+2.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	98	414	116	23	14	100%	6.1	28.0%	5.7%	22.3%	3.4%	3.62	3.69	+2.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	114	24	14	100%	6.1	27.8%	5.8%	22.0%	3.5%	3.71	3.77	+2.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	92	388	106	23	14	100%	6.1	27.3%	6.0%	21.2%	3.6%	3.84	3.93	+1.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	83	350	93	22	13	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.3%	20.2%	3.8%	4.03	4.15	+1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	78	20	12	100%	6.0	25.8%	6.7%	19.1%	4.1%	4.25	4.39	+0.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	59	249	62	18	11	100%	5.9	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	4.3%	4.49	4.65	+0.6
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	45	14	9	100%	6.3	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	4.6%	4.76	4.94	+0.3
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	29	122	28	10	6	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	4.9%	5.06	5.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	793	3296	898	204	124	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	3.8%	3.72	3.65	+16.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	831	226	51	31	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	3.8%	3.72	3.65	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		90	87	399	1563	423	112	51	97%	4.4	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.3%	2.86	3.51	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	783	212	56	26	97%	4.4	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.3%	2.86	3.51	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 24 IPFIP 1.33 → 1.64 (+0.30)K% 37.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.76%	—	×0.860	32.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.22%	—	×0.900	10.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.33 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 78 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.52 (+0.22)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.860	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.86%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 46 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.89 (+0.58)K% 32.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.58%	—	×0.810	26.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.93%	—	×1.100	4.33%
HR / BF /BF	4.49%	÷1.198	×1.200	4.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 24 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.26 (+0.82)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.860	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.12%	—	×0.900	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	5.10%	÷0.909	×1.100	6.17%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 7 IPFIP 0.74 → 1.66 (+0.93)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.979	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 0.74 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 79 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.96 (+1.28)K% 35.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.22%	—	×0.740	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.180	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.072	×1.300	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 12 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.69 (+0.95)K% 32.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.740	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.180	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.136	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	3.61	27.9%	22.2%	306	+0.03	—	—	—
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	74
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	74
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	73
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	71
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	71
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	69
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	69
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	69
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	68
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	68
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	68
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	67
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	67
Glenn Otto Jr. R 2021 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	28.3%	6.9%	1.8%	.336	4.94	19.8%	8.1%	194	+2.38	2.56	369	66
Mike Fiers R 2012 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP	2.99	25.0%	6.7%	2.1%	.317	3.82	24.0%	16.9%	274	+0.83	2.83	1,140	66
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	66
Zebby Matthews R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	24	SP	3.35	24.6%	3.4%	3.5%	.307	4.18	22.7%	16.0%	281	+0.83	3.15	521	66
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	66
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	27.3%	6.1%	1.38	3.62
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
Jeff Reardon ('79-'94, 19 WAR*)	5.7	75	25.2%*	7.5%*	1.28*	3.50*
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
Bruce Sutter ('76-'88, 22 WAR*)	5.2	95	28.5%*	7.3%*	1.12*	3.14*
Jake McGee ('22)	2.9	48	26.0%	6.6%	1.10	3.71
Enrique Romo ('77-'82, 6 WAR*)	3.0	100	26.0%*	8.2%*	1.33*	3.81*