Pedro Montero

P DSL Miami

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 144 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#461ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Miami	11	11	36	3.00	2.54	30.1%	9.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.58	4.58	23.5%	11.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIA	7	7	41	4.51	4.54	22.4%	11.3%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIA	14	14	78	4.37	4.29	23.5%	10.3%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

CompsRayner Urbaez (age 20) · Marco Raya (age 20) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%23.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	30.1%	9.6%	20.5%	1.4%	3.00	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	83	350	79	40	10	100%	5.5	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.62	+0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	108	454	107	47	13	100%	5.4	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+1.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	124	523	126	51	15	100%	5.4	24.2%	9.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	+1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	125	527	130	49	15	100%	5.7	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.20	4.12	+1.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	123	518	130	48	14	100%	5.8	25.1%	9.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.06	+2.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	123	521	131	48	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.04	+2.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	121	509	129	47	14	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.3%	16.0%	2.8%	4.07	4.08	+1.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	115	486	122	46	14	100%	6.1	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.16	+1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	107	453	113	44	14	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+1.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	412	101	41	14	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	3.3%	4.37	4.47	+1.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	88	370	89	38	13	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	78	328	78	35	12	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.8%	4.76	4.89	+0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	67	32	12	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.1%	12.0%	4.0%	4.99	5.15	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	41	173	39	20	5	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.51	4.54	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	78	329	77	34	9	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.7%	4.37	4.29	+0.9
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	104	439	106	43	12	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.7%	14.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+1.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	111	469	116	44	12	100%	5.5	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.12	4.04	+1.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	113	477	120	44	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.2%	15.8%	2.6%	4.03	3.98	+1.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	115	486	123	45	13	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.99	3.96	+1.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	115	486	123	45	13	100%	6.1	25.2%	9.3%	16.0%	2.7%	3.99	4.00	+1.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	109	460	116	43	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.08	+1.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	107	42	13	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.21	+1.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	93	393	96	39	12	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.38	+1.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	83	350	85	36	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.57	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	74	312	74	33	11	100%	6.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.6%	4.66	4.79	+0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	65	274	64	31	11	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.1%	12.0%	3.8%	4.88	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		208	208	1203	5081	1244	498	147	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.23	3.87	+22.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	207	83	24	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.23	3.87	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		11	11	36	146	30	18	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	61	200	811	166	97	11	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKDSL Miami · 36 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.63 (+1.11)K% 30.1% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.14%	—	×0.680	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.250	11.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.423	×1.400	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 185).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.38	23.5%	13.1%	314	-0.20	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	87
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	82
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	81
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	80
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	79
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	78
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	78
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	78
Josh Knoth R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	19.7%	13.1%	2.3%	.326	4.89	18.0%	7.6%	82	+0.54	4.35	166	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	102	24.4%	9.9%	1.18	4.34
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15