Josh Knoth — OGILVIE

Josh Knoth P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%21.8%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL—50

CMD2050

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$10M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+1.9	$10M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$15M	+1.8	$8M	+$1M
Totals		$35M		$49M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	84	361	96	40	7	100%	4.0	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.3%	4.48	4.35	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	84	361	96	40	7	100%	4.0	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.3%	4.48	4.35	—
2024	18	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	84	361	96	40	7	100%	4.0	26.6%	11.1%	15.5%	1.9%	4.48	3.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	20	88	366	87	35	10	91%	4.0	18.0%	10.4%	7.6%	3.6%	4.11	4.89	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	20	88	366	87	35	10	91%	4.0	18.0%	10.4%	7.6%	3.6%	4.11	4.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIL	3	3	6	26	8	4	0	100%	2.0	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	4.50	2.45	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	16	14	69	288	66	26	7	88%	4.3	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	2.4%	4.33	3.64	—
2026	20	AA RAW	MIL	3	3	13	52	13	5	3	100%	4.3	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	5.8%	2.77	5.37	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	8	32	7	4	1	100%	3.8	21.8%	12.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	95	398	94	39	11	—	—	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.7%	4.16	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	128	543	122	61	16	100%	4.9	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	+0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	33	33	171	722	170	73	20	100%	5.2	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.32	+1.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	33	33	175	739	179	69	21	100%	5.3	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.16	+1.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	32	32	179	757	187	68	21	100%	5.6	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.05	+1.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	31	31	180	760	191	67	21	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.98	+2.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	30	30	180	760	192	66	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	3.99	3.96	+2.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	30	30	177	749	189	66	21	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.8%	3.99	4.00	+1.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	172	726	183	65	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.9%	16.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.08	+1.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	164	694	173	64	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.21	+1.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	154	652	160	62	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.3%	4.29	4.39	+0.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	144	608	147	60	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.5%	4.47	4.59	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	133	562	134	57	21	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	3.7%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	122	516	120	55	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.6%	4.0%	4.91	5.07	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	63	266	60	30	8	100%	4.8	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.66	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	125	528	124	53	16	100%	5.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.40	+0.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	148	625	151	59	18	100%	5.3	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.35	4.24	+1.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	29	29	160	676	167	61	20	100%	5.5	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.22	4.13	+1.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	165	697	175	61	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.06	+1.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	168	709	180	62	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.04	+1.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	168	709	179	62	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.08	+1.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	27	27	163	688	173	62	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.12	4.16	+1.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	26	26	156	659	164	60	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	3.2%	4.22	4.29	+1.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	147	621	153	59	21	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.4%	4.38	4.48	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	137	578	140	57	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.7%	4.57	4.69	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	127	536	127	55	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	3.9%	4.78	4.92	+0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	116	490	114	52	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.6%	4.2%	5.02	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	319	1843	7781	1908	732	249	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.2%	4.35	3.98	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	207	79	27	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.2%	4.35	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		43	41	172	727	137	85	22	95%	4.0	18.9%	11.7%	7.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.62	+15.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	48	200	845	159	99	25	95%	4.0	18.9%	11.7%	7.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.62	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Knoth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.8%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.33	23.5%	13.4%	474	-0.50	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	88
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	87
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	85
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	84
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	82
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	81
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	572	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
AJ Smith-Shawver R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	20	SP	4.55	23.4%	11.9%	3.5%	.204	4.81	22.4%	11.9%	174	+0.26	3.74	323	81
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	81
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.40	23.9%	12.8%	346	-0.65	3.90	519	81
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	155	24.3%	9.6%	1.17	4.30
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73