Josh Knoth
P
Carolina Mudcats
+0.8
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 3.0 · 2032
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.7%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 21 | 21 | 84 | 361 | 96 | 40 | 7 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.33 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 81 | 36 | 10 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 374 | 86 | 35 | 11 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 116 | 42 | 14 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.12 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 139 | 588 | 144 | 49 | 16 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 159 | 670 | 167 | 54 | 19 | 24.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.91 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 173 | 729 | 185 | 58 | 20 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +2.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 33 | 33 | 180 | 759 | 194 | 60 | 21 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 178 | 753 | 192 | 60 | 21 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 176 | 742 | 189 | 59 | 21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +2.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 172 | 725 | 184 | 58 | 21 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.91 | +2.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 166 | 703 | 177 | 57 | 20 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 161 | 679 | 169 | 56 | 20 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 154 | 651 | 161 | 55 | 20 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +2.0 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 622 | 151 | 53 | 20 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 84 | 361 | 71 | 47 | 8 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.33 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 50 | 200 | 856 | 168 | 111 | 19 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Knoth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.12 | 23.9% | 15.2% | 343 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 92 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 89 |
| Chase Hampton R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 88 |
| David Perez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 88 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 2.67 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 74 | -1.32 | 2.67 | 174 | 88 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .239 | 6.75 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.24 | 4.51 | 129 | 87 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 86 |
| Levi Kelly R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .285 | 6.22 | 19.4% | -7.9% | 25 | +2.81 | 3.41 | 125 | 86 |
| Cade Horton R 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.24 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 181 | +0.40 | 3.24 | 270 | 86 |
| Brandon Young R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.57 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.54 | 3.13 | 319 | 86 |
| Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 86 |
| Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 85 |
| Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 85 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 84 |
| Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 84 |
| Zach Peek R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 84 |
| Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.17 | 16.8% | 2.6% | 91 | +0.98 | 3.82 | 406 | 84 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 84 |
| Jharel Cotton R 2029 · 3.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.27 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.73 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 315 | +1.46 | 3.20 | 560 | 84 |
| Mason Black R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.75 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 364 | +0.82 | 3.93 | 476 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.8 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +3.0 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.9 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.8 | $28M | +$22M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +2.7 | $28M | +$18M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $19M | $140M | +$121M | ||