Josh Knoth — OGILVIE

Josh Knoth P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.8%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL—50

CMD2050

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$16M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$11M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	84	361	96	40	7	100%	4.0	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.1%	4.48	4.25	—
2024	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	21	21	84	361	96	40	7	100%	4.0	26.6%	11.1%	15.5%	1.9%	4.48	3.33	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	12	12	39	162	43	14	2	100%	3.3	19.8%	8.5%	11.4%	1.8%	4.12	3.51	+0.5
ROS	20	MLB	MIL	12	12	65	274	60	31	8	100%	5.4	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	104	436	103	45	10	—	—	23.6%	10.4%	13.1%	2.3%	4.47	4.24	+1.4
2026 FULL	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	2.9%	4.66	4.28	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIL	23	23	128	543	122	57	16	100%	5.6	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.47	+1.4
2028	22	MLB	MIL	31	31	171	722	170	69	20	100%	5.5	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.24	+2.3
2029	23	MLB	MIL	32	32	175	739	179	66	21	100%	5.5	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.20	4.09	+2.7
2030	24	MLB	MIL	32	32	179	757	187	65	21	100%	5.6	24.7%	8.6%	16.1%	2.8%	4.08	4.00	+2.9
2031	25	MLB	MIL	31	31	180	760	191	64	21	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.94	+3.1
2032	26	MLB	MIL	30	30	180	760	192	64	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	2.7%	3.94	3.91	+3.1
2033	27	MLB	MIL	30	30	177	749	189	64	21	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.5%	16.8%	2.8%	3.95	3.95	+3.0
2034	28	MLB	MIL	29	29	172	726	183	63	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.9%	4.00	4.04	+2.7
2035	29	MLB	MIL	27	27	164	694	173	62	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.9%	16.1%	3.0%	4.10	4.17	+2.4
2036	30	MLB	MIL	26	26	154	652	160	60	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	3.2%	4.25	4.34	+1.9
2037	31	MLB	MIL	24	24	144	608	147	58	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	3.5%	4.43	4.55	+1.4
2038	32	MLB	MIL	22	22	133	562	134	56	21	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.7%	4.63	4.77	+1.0
2039	33	MLB	MIL	20	20	122	516	120	54	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.4%	12.9%	4.0%	4.87	5.02	+0.5
2027	21	MLB	MIL	11	11	63	266	60	28	7	100%	5.7	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.51	4.44	+0.1
2028	22	MLB	MIL	23	23	125	528	124	50	15	100%	5.4	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.21	+1.7
2029	23	MLB	MIL	27	27	148	625	151	56	17	100%	5.5	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.7%	4.17	4.06	+2.3
2030	24	MLB	MIL	29	29	160	676	167	58	18	100%	5.5	24.7%	8.6%	16.1%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+2.7
2031	25	MLB	MIL	28	28	165	697	175	59	19	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	2.7%	3.96	3.91	+2.9
2032	26	MLB	MIL	28	28	168	709	180	60	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	2.7%	3.91	3.88	+3.0
2033	27	MLB	MIL	28	28	168	709	179	60	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.92	+2.9
2034	28	MLB	MIL	27	27	163	688	173	60	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.8%	3.97	4.01	+2.7
2035	29	MLB	MIL	26	26	156	659	164	58	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.9%	16.1%	3.0%	4.07	4.14	+2.3
2036	30	MLB	MIL	24	24	147	621	153	57	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	3.2%	4.21	4.30	+1.9
2037	31	MLB	MIL	23	23	137	578	140	55	20	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	3.4%	4.39	4.51	+1.4
2038	32	MLB	MIL	21	21	127	536	127	53	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.59	4.73	+1.0
2039	33	MLB	MIL	19	19	116	490	114	51	19	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.4%	12.9%	3.9%	4.83	4.98	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			319	319	1843	7783	1908	706	232	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	3.0%	4.18	3.81	+34.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	207	77	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	3.0%	4.18	3.81	+3.7
Career	—			33	33	124	523	103	61	11	100%	3.7	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	2.0%	4.37	4.02	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			53	53	200	846	167	98	17	100%	3.7	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	2.0%	4.37	4.02	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Knoth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.8%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.25	23.5%	14.0%	474	-0.44	—	—	—
Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	87
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	86
Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	84
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	84
Brandon Young R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2028 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	83
Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	83
Levi Kelly R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	20	SP	3.53	22.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.285	6.05	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.52	3.53	125	83
Will Sanders R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2027 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP	3.52	18.7%	10.1%	1.3%	.291	3.95	19.3%	7.5%	167	+0.43	3.41	253	83
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	83
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	20.3%	11.4%	2.6%	.278	5.40	15.4%	0.3%	159	+1.15	3.89	474	82
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2029 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	81
Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	81
Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	19.9%	9.6%	2.2%	.238	4.84	20.2%	8.3%	230	+1.01	3.83	358	81
Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2028 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	81
Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	21.8%	10.0%	2.2%	.312	4.30	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.55	3.70	776	80
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	155	24.3%	9.2%	1.17	4.24
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25