Logan Gragg

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX2 levels	30	15	103	4.82	4.65	20.3%	6.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 5.35
2023	24	MIX2 levels	27	19	125	4.98	4.91	18.9%	8.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.49
2024	25	MIX2 levels	32	1	60	3.47	4.14	20.9%	8.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.42
2025	26	No MLB games played
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	1	1	1	4.53	4.53	20.9%	8.9%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBSEA	2	2	11	4.58	4.64	21.0%	9.1%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Sam Lewis (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%20.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	9	8	35	149	35	12	3	89%	3.9	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.14	—
2019	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	9	8	35	149	35	12	3	89%	3.9	23.5%	8.1%	15.4%	2.0%	3.38	3.24	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	20	99	431	80	27	15	80%	4.0	14.3%	7.2%	7.1%	4.1%	4.45	5.05	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	25	20	99	431	80	27	15	80%	4.0	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	3.5%	4.45	4.27	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	103	449	91	27	20	50%	3.4	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	5.0%	4.82	5.35	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	103	449	91	27	20	50%	3.4	20.3%	6.0%	14.3%	4.5%	4.82	4.65	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	125	540	102	48	22	70%	4.6	15.4%	9.6%	5.9%	4.5%	4.98	5.49	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	125	540	102	48	22	70%	4.6	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	4.1%	4.98	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	60	244	51	20	8	3%	1.9	17.1%	8.4%	8.6%	4.9%	3.47	5.42	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	60	244	51	20	8	3%	1.9	17.1%	8.4%	8.6%	4.9%	3.47	5.42	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	60	244	51	20	8	3%	1.9	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.3%	3.47	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	5	5	34	142	30	13	5	100%	6.7	21.0%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	11	46	10	4	1	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	45	9	4	1	100%	5.3	21.0%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	171	76	19	100%	6.7	21.0%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		123	63	421	1813	284	148	80	51%	3.4	15.7%	8.1%	7.5%	4.4%	4.47	5.23	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	30	200	862	135	70	38	51%	3.4	15.7%	8.1%	7.5%	4.4%	4.47	5.23	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 51 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.42 (+1.29)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.810	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.66%	—	×1.100	8.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷0.820	×1.200	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 9 IPFIP 4.43 → 4.46 (+0.03)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×0.900	10.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.142	×1.100	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 107 IPFIP 5.16 → 5.86 (+0.70)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.91%	—	×0.810	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.080	×1.200	5.14%

Result: FIP 5.16 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 18 IPFIP 2.70 → 2.81 (+0.10)K% 18.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.860	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×0.900	8.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.955	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 60 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.14 (+0.65)K% 19.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.68%	—	×0.770	15.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.02%	—	×1.150	4.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.114	×1.250	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 43 IPFIP 5.97 → 6.85 (+0.88)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.00%	—	×0.810	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.50%	—	×1.100	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	6.50%	÷1.069	×1.200	7.30%

Result: FIP 5.97 → 6.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Peoria Chiefs · 99 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.05 (+0.82)K% 18.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.56%	—	×0.770	14.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.26%	—	×1.150	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.063	×1.250	4.09%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 APeoria Chiefs · 35 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.14 (+0.89)K% 23.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.49%	—	×0.740	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.180	9.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷1.105	×1.300	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Gragg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.9%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.64	21.0%	11.8%	34	+0.11	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	75
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	73
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	72
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	71
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	71
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	71
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	70
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	70
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	70
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	70
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	70
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	68
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	68
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.0%	9.0%	1.22	4.55
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*