Marcelo Perez — OGILVIE

Marcelo Perez P Arkansas Travelers

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%13.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF2545

CTRL5555

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	75	303	76	24	4	100%	4.1	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	2.1%	3.38	3.84	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	75	303	76	24	4	100%	4.1	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	2.1%	3.38	3.84	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	75	303	76	24	4	100%	4.1	25.1%	7.9%	17.2%	1.3%	3.38	2.73	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	104	483	91	29	18	100%	4.2	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	4.0%	6.81	4.93	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	104	483	91	29	18	100%	4.2	14.5%	6.9%	7.6%	4.0%	6.81	4.93	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	25	25	104	483	91	29	18	100%	4.2	18.8%	6.0%	12.8%	3.7%	6.81	4.43	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	370	62	23	10	100%	4.8	13.2%	6.9%	6.3%	3.8%	3.44	4.95	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	370	62	23	10	100%	4.8	13.2%	6.9%	6.3%	3.8%	3.44	4.95	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	92	370	62	23	10	100%	4.8	16.8%	6.2%	10.5%	2.7%	3.44	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	36	0	47	207	52	17	7	0%	1.3	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	4.5%	4.98	5.23	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	36	0	47	207	52	17	7	0%	1.3	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	4.5%	4.98	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	SEA	4	0	5	21	10	1	0	0%	1.2	47.6%	4.8%	42.9%	0.0%	3.60	-0.32	—
2026	26	AA RAW	SEA	32	0	42	186	42	16	7	0%	1.3	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.8%	5.14	4.35	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.2%	8.6%	4.6%	3.4%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	53	232	55	19	8	—	—	23.8%	8.3%	15.6%	3.4%	5.01	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	88	0	92	391	55	34	13	0%	1.1	14.1%	8.6%	5.5%	3.4%	5.21	5.23	-0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	85	0	90	379	55	33	13	0%	1.1	14.5%	8.7%	5.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.24	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	82	0	86	362	53	32	13	0%	1.0	14.7%	8.8%	5.8%	3.6%	5.25	5.32	-0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	SEA	77	0	81	340	49	31	13	0%	1.0	14.5%	9.1%	5.4%	3.8%	5.37	5.47	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	33	0	35	148	21	13	5	0%	1.1	14.1%	8.6%	5.5%	3.4%	5.21	5.23	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	53	224	32	19	8	0%	1.1	14.5%	8.7%	5.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.24	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	58	0	61	258	38	23	9	0%	1.1	14.7%	8.8%	5.8%	3.6%	5.25	5.32	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	SEA	60	0	63	266	39	24	10	0%	1.1	14.5%	9.1%	5.4%	3.8%	5.37	5.47	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	0	212	895	130	79	32	0%	1.0	14.5%	8.8%	5.6%	3.6%	5.27	4.95	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	123	75	30	0%	1.1	14.5%	8.8%	5.6%	3.6%	5.27	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		98	62	318	1363	211	104	49	63%	3.2	15.5%	7.7%	7.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.74	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	39	200	858	133	66	31	63%	3.2	15.5%	7.7%	7.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.74	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcelo Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	13.2%	8.6%	3.4%	—	5.26	14.4%	5.7%	268	-0.04	—	—	—
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	87
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	87
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	84
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	79
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	79
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	79
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	79
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	79
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	78
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	78
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Jake McCasland R 2018 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	12.8%	9.5%	2.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	367	78
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	84	14.2%	8.8%	1.35	5.26
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77