John Klein — OGILVIE

John Klein P Buffalo Bisons

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

K%21.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5550

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$31M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	100%	4.5	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.47	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	100%	4.5	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.47	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	100%	4.5	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.6%	4.17	3.08	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	15.7%	9.9%	5.8%	2.1%	4.57	4.20	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	15.7%	9.9%	5.8%	2.1%	4.57	4.20	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.0%	4.57	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	1.8%	3.98	3.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	1.8%	3.98	3.21	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	1.5%	3.98	2.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	4	19	2	4	1	0%	1.4	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	5.3%	4.15	7.95	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	33	19	88	401	94	53	15	58%	2.7	20.0%	11.5%	8.4%	4.0%	5.75	5.09	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	33	19	88	401	94	53	15	58%	2.7	20.0%	11.5%	8.4%	4.0%	5.75	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIN	30	19	83	382	92	49	14	63%	2.8	24.1%	12.8%	11.3%	3.7%	5.83	4.70	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIN	3	0	4	19	2	4	1	0%	1.4	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	5.3%	4.15	7.77	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIN	3	0	4	19	2	4	1	0%	1.4	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	5.3%	4.15	7.77	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	6	27	6	2	1	100%	6.3	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	2.4%	4.11	4.11	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIN	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	2.4%	4.12	4.12	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	94	428	100	55	16	—	—	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	3.7%	5.64	5.02	-0.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	11	45	100	55	16	—	—	221.7%	123.0%	98.7%	34.8%	49.80	19.07	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	109	460	99	38	11	100%	5.7	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.07	4.05	+1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	116	489	107	40	12	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.5%	4.06	4.04	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	118	499	109	41	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	2.6%	4.08	4.09	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	118	499	108	42	13	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.18	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	113	477	102	41	14	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.8%	4.24	4.31	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	106	448	95	40	14	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.0%	4.39	4.49	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	99	418	87	39	14	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.57	4.69	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	92	386	78	37	14	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.5%	4.78	4.91	-0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	84	355	70	36	13	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%	5.01	5.16	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	103	435	94	36	11	100%	5.7	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.08	4.06	+1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	110	464	101	38	12	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	2.5%	4.07	4.05	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	112	473	103	39	12	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	2.6%	4.09	4.10	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	112	473	103	39	13	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.19	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	107	452	97	39	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.8%	4.25	4.32	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	101	426	90	38	13	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.50	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	94	397	82	37	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	87	367	74	35	13	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.5%	4.79	4.92	-0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	80	338	67	34	13	100%	6.2	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%	5.02	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	153	918	3875	821	341	114	98%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.04	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	845	179	74	25	98%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.04	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		101	67	355	1570	300	158	40	66%	3.5	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.6%	4.59	4.17	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	885	169	89	23	66%	3.5	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	2.6%	4.59	4.17	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Klein (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	21.2%	8.6%	2.4%	—	4.06	21.8%	13.6%	343	-0.05	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	87
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	86
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	86
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	81
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	80
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	80
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	80
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	80
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	79
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	102	21.2%	8.7%	1.12	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88