John Klein

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+MIN	22	20	100	4.57	3.61	20.4%	8.6%	—	K 15.7% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.20
2025	23	MIX2 levels	31	15	106	3.98	2.59	27.6%	8.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.19
2026	24	MIX2 levels	36	19	95	5.99	5.22	23.4%	13.1%	0.2	K 20.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.39
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	8	8	48	4.93	4.93	21.1%	10.9%	0.3
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBTOR	11	11	68	4.85	4.84	21.4%	10.6%	0.4
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBTOR	12	12	69	4.83	4.84	21.4%	10.4%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.052First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsAlfredo Figaro (age 25) · Carlos Torres (age 26) · Jeff Niemann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%21.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.052 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	100%	4.5	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.47	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	100%	4.5	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.6%	4.17	3.08	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	15.7%	9.9%	5.8%	2.1%	4.57	4.20	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	15.7%	9.9%	5.8%	2.1%	4.57	4.20	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	91%	4.6	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.0%	4.57	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.8%	3.98	3.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.8%	3.98	3.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	48%	3.4	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	1.5%	3.98	2.59	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	95	435	102	57	18	53%	2.6	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	4.7%	5.99	5.39	+0.0
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	95	435	102	57	18	53%	2.6	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	4.7%	5.99	5.39	+0.0
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	19	95	435	102	57	18	53%	2.6	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	4.1%	5.99	5.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	8	35	7	6	1	0%	2.1	20.0%	17.1%	2.9%	2.9%	2.16	5.14	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	8	8	48	203	43	22	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.93	4.93	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	85	359	77	38	12	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.85	4.84	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	81	340	73	35	11	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.83	4.84	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	77	327	70	34	11	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.85	4.89	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	302	64	32	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.01	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	272	56	30	10	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.8%	5.09	5.18	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	68	287	61	30	10	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.85	4.84	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	62	30	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.83	4.84	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	62	30	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.85	4.89	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	58	29	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	3.6%	4.94	5.01	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	60	253	53	28	10	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.8%	5.09	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	55	339	1433	303	154	50	93%	5.8	21.2%	10.7%	10.4%	3.5%	4.84	4.58	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	844	179	91	29	93%	5.7	21.2%	10.7%	10.4%	3.5%	4.84	4.58	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		104	67	362	1604	310	162	44	64%	3.5	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.27	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	37	200	887	171	89	25	64%	3.5	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.27	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 86 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.39 (+0.35)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.860	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.75%	—	×0.900	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.25%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 81 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.35 (+0.73)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.810	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.100	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.986	×1.200	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 26 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.73 (+0.14)K% 28.2% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.860	24.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.253	×1.100	0.75%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 100 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.20 (+0.62)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.41%	—	×0.770	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.150	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 30 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.76 (+0.93)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.59%	—	×0.740	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.66%	—	×1.180	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷0.976	×1.300	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Twins · 23 IPFIP 3.56 → 5.26 (+1.70)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.680	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.250	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.913	×1.400	4.14%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 5 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.58 (+0.44)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.770	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Klein (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.86	21.4%	10.9%	243	-0.07	—	—	—
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	86
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	83
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	82
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	81
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	77
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	74
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	74
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	73
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	72
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	72
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	76	21.2%	10.7%	1.34	4.86
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78