John Klein — OGILVIE

John Klein P St. Paul Saints

+0.6 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2028

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.8%

IP99

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2028

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	FCL Twins	2	0	2	9	2	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2023	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	13	13	58	255	61	23	4	17.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.17	4.53	+0.3
2024	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	100	441	90	38	9	15.7%	9.9%	2.2%	4.57	4.25	+1.2
2025	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	31	15	106	464	128	37	7	22.8%	8.6%	1.7%	3.98	3.22	+2.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	4	3	11	49	13	5	6	—	—	—	7.94	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	40	—	40	168	37	15	4	22.1%	9.2%	2.4%	4.11	4.11	+0.4
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	51	217	50	20	10	23.1%	9.5%	4.6%	4.96	3.20	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIN	20	20	112	475	106	42	12	22.4%	8.8%	2.5%	4.08	4.05	+1.6
2028	26	MLB	MIN	22	22	119	504	114	44	13	22.6%	8.7%	2.5%	4.07	4.05	+1.7
2029	27	MLB	MIN	22	22	122	517	117	45	13	22.6%	8.7%	2.5%	4.07	4.07	+1.7
2030	28	MLB	MIN	22	22	123	518	117	45	13	22.5%	8.7%	2.6%	4.08	4.10	+1.7
2031	29	MLB	MIN	22	22	120	506	113	45	13	22.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.12	4.14	+1.6
2032	30	MLB	MIN	21	21	116	491	109	44	13	22.2%	8.9%	2.7%	4.17	4.21	+1.4
2033	31	MLB	MIN	20	20	112	474	104	43	13	22.0%	9.0%	2.8%	4.24	4.28	+1.3
2034	32	MLB	MIN	20	20	108	455	99	42	13	21.7%	9.2%	2.8%	4.32	4.37	+1.1
2035	33	MLB	MIN	19	19	103	434	93	41	13	21.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.46	+1.0
2036	34	MLB	MIN	18	18	98	413	87	39	12	21.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.57	+0.8
2037	35	MLB	MIN	17	17	92	389	80	38	12	20.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.70	+0.6
2038	36	MLB	MIN	16	16	86	364	74	37	12	20.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.83	+0.3
2039	37	MLB	MIN	15	15	80	338	73	32	11	21.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.72	4.70	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			72	51	278	1218	235	119	31	19.3%	9.8%	2.5%	4.37	4.09	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—			52	37	200	875	169	86	22	19.3%	9.8%	2.5%	4.37	4.09	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Klein (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	22.1%	9.2%	2.4%	—	4.06	22.5%	13.8%	354	-0.05	—	—	—
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	93
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	92
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	91
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	91
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	90
Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	25	SU	3.49	22.4%	10.2%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.49	140	90
Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	24	SU	3.74	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.68	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.06	3.68	118	90
Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	24	SU	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	4.15	20.6%	13.7%	152	+0.96	3.19	183	89
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	89
Mark Montgomery R 2026 · 3.13 FIP	24	SU	3.13	20.8%	8.8%	1.2%	.254	2.75	25.3%	16.9%	126	-0.38	2.60	169	89
Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.51	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.09	3.51	103	89
Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	21.3%	7.5%	3.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	100	88
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	88
Michael Baird R 2026 · 2.85 FIP	24	SU	2.85	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.31	2.85	132	88
Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	19.1%	8.1%	3.4%	.275	4.54	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.16	4.12	230	87
Micah Dallas R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	18.7%	7.1%	3.1%	.273	3.61	17.5%	9.0%	50	-0.48	3.61	147	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	22.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.333	4.24	18.2%	8.5%	116	+0.39	3.85	149	87
Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.66	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.05	2.53	421	87
Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	19.0%	9.6%	1.4%	.305	5.78	17.8%	4.9%	107	+2.30	3.48	153	87
Joe Colón J R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	19.4%	7.4%	1.5%	.312	4.04	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.24	113	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+1.6	$15M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.4	$13M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.3	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$18M		$86M	+$68M