Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A | Kane County Cougars | 13 | 13 | 62 | 261 | 68 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 3.32 | 4.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Kane County Cougars | 13 | 13 | 62 | 261 | 68 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 3.32 | 2.81 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 4 | 78 | 312 | 97 | 29 | 6 | 11% | 2.1 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 2.4% | 2.54 | 3.61 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 4 | 78 | 312 | 97 | 29 | 6 | 11% | 2.1 | 31.1% | 9.3% | 21.8% | 1.9% | 2.54 | 2.73 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 1 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 7% | 1.2 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 2.58 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 1 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 7% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 2.14 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 35 | 158 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.71 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 35 | 158 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 3% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 5.71 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 52 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.2% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 3.91 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 52 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 4.2% | 3.91 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 48 | 212 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 4.53 | 3.70 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 48 | 212 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 25.5% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 1.9% | 4.53 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 31 | 24 | 137 | 561 | 118 | 50 | 14 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 3.21 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 31 | 24 | 137 | 561 | 118 | 50 | 14 | 77% | 4.4 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | STL | 77 | 0 | 81 | 340 | 61 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 71 | 0 | 75 | 315 | 63 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 289 | 57 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | STL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | STL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 55 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 4.66 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 80 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 196 | 44 | 424 | 1772 | 367 | 178 | 51 | 22% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.53 | 4.20 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 21 | 200 | 837 | 173 | 84 | 24 | 22% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.53 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Curtis Taylor (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | — | 5.02 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 143 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 86 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 85 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 81 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 79 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 77 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 75 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 74 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 72 |
| Vin Mazzaro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 126 | 72 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 72 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 71 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 71 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.78 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .282 | 3.61 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.45 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 135 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 75 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 1.38 | 5.00 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |