Jeff McNeil

2B Athletics

Age 35 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 8.401 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	MLBNYM	472	.238/.310/.384	12	5	100	1.3
2025	33	MLBNYM	462	.243/.338/.411	12	3	112	2.0
2026	34	MLBOAK	520	.264/.315/.368	9	8	87	0.6
2027PROJ	35	MLBOAK	348	.276/.335/.406	7	5	104	1.2
2028PROJ	36	MLBOAK	251	.263/.321/.379	4	1	93	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2031Service8.401First FA2032

2027Ext$20M2028Ext$20M2029Ext$20M2030Ext$20M2031Ext$20M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA49

Speed26

Avg EV20

Bat Spd17

Barrel%11

Form.268/.322/.399 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .268/.326/.393

CompsGreg Dobbs (age 35) · Denard Span (age 34) · Erick Aybar (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 94104vR 107

AVG/OBP/SLG.276 / .335 / .406

PA348

HR7

SB5

K%13

BB%7

BABIP299

ISO129

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$30M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

570.257

POWER

Barrel%

113.2

Avg EV

2086.8

Bat Spd

1767.8

SPEED

Sprint

2626.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%13%·13% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 13%

BB%6%▼6% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.131·.140 over 100 AB (60d) · proj .126

HR/BB3.0%·3.5% over 86 BBE (60d) · proj 2.6%

BABIP.289·.277 over 83 BIP (60d) · proj .290

SLASH.268/.322/.399·proj .268/.326/.393

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1008 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

223

785

—

wRC+

105

▶▶R

wOBA

299

324

▶R

ISO

113

164

▶▶R

BABIP

266

260

—

14.3%

13.1%

▶R

BB%

9.0%

8.0%

◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.401 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$20M	+1.2	$10M	-$10M
2028	Ext	$20M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$40M		$9M	-$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	21	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	199	164	54	9	2	0	17	14	10	11	2	329	424	409	833	79	348	7	9	366	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	241	207	51	8	2	1	22	25	4	2	2	246	330	319	649	72	275	10	9	291	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	265	232	77	20	2	2	20	34	8	15	3	332	404	461	865	129	379	13	8	381	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	200	250	200	450		231	12	6	213	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	529	468	146	18	6	1	35	59	12	16	5	312	375	382	757	71	353	11	7	336	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	69	61	14	1	0	0	4	8	3	4	0	230	304	246	550	16	264	12	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	78	71	18	5	0	1	3	10	2	2	0	254	303	366	669	113	274	13	4	294	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	116	105	34	7	0	3	7	19	4	2	2	324	388	476	864	152	373	16	6	386	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	248	225	74	11	6	3	14	24	5	7	1	329	381	471	852	142	359	10	6	372	143	+13	+1	+3	+2	+5	2.5
2018	26	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	143	125	46	10	2	5	14	19	1	3	0	368	436	600	1.036	232	394	13	10	442	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	241	214	70	16	3	14	22	23	5	3	0	327	402	626	1.029	299	316	10	9	444	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	567	510	162	38	1	23	35	75	21	5	6	318	385	531	917	214	337	13	6	403	164	+43	-1	+1	-6	+12	4.9
2020	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	209	183	57	14	0	4	20	24	3	0	2	311	388	454	842	142	335	11	10	372	140	+10	-1	+1	-2	+5	1.2
2021	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	426	386	97	19	1	7	29	58	10	3	0	251	320	360	680	109	280	14	7	309	100	+0	+1	+4	+2	+9	1.6
2021	29	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	16	15	6	2	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	400	438	733	1.171	333	500	25	6	504	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	589	533	174	39	1	9	40	61	11	4	0	326	385	454	839	128	353	10	7	373	145	+31	+1	+5	+2	+13	5.3
2023	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	648	585	158	25	4	10	39	65	18	10	0	270	335	378	713	108	288	10	6	320	108	+6	+2	+2	+2	+14	2.7
2024	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	472	424	101	26	0	12	35	68	9	5	1	238	310	384	694	146	256	14	7	310	100	+0	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.3
2025	33	MLB	New York Mets	—	462	399	97	21	5	12	49	55	8	3	0	243	338	411	749	168	253	12	11	332	112	+6	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.0
2026	34	MLB	Athletics	—	520	478	126	23	0	9	31	59	5	8	2	264	315	368	683	105	283	11	6	305	87	-8	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4141	3723	1046	216	18	89	292	489	90	45	12	281	348	420	768	139	302	12	7	342	118	+86	+4	+16	+5	+90	20.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	21	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	199	170	47	7	2	0	11	20	10	11	2	276	356	341	697	65	284	10	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	241	214	49	9	1	1	15	36	4	2	2	229	292	294	586	65	263	15	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	265	241	70	17	2	2	11	45	8	15	3	290	342	402	745	112	338	17	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	200	250	200	450		223	19	6	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	529	478	127	16	5	1	25	85	12	16	5	266	318	326	645	61	308	16	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	78	72	16	4	0	1	2	14	2	2	0	222	263	319	583	97	236	18	3	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	116	107	28	5	0	3	5	28	4	2	2	262	319	393	711	131	325	24	4	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	248	226	76	12	6	3	13	24	5	7	1	336	385	482	868	146	359	10	5	380	143	+13	+1	+3	+2	+5	2.5
2018	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	143	130	45	10	2	4	9	25	1	3	0	346	393	546	939	200	373	17	6	395	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	241	222	62	15	2	11	14	28	5	3	0	279	336	514	850	234	277	12	6	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	567	512	167	40	1	23	33	75	21	5	6	326	390	543	933	217	337	13	6	410	164	+43	-1	+1	-6	+12	4.9
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	209	185	59	15	0	4	18	24	3	0	2	319	388	465	853	146	335	11	9	375	140	+10	-1	+1	-2	+5	1.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	426	386	100	20	1	7	29	58	10	3	0	259	327	370	698	111	280	14	7	316	100	+0	+1	+4	+2	+9	1.6
2021	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	16	15	5	2	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	333	375	667	1.042	333	432	31	6	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	534	179	41	1	9	39	61	11	4	0	335	392	466	858	131	353	10	7	382	145	+31	+1	+5	+2	+13	5.3
2023	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	648	585	163	27	4	10	39	65	18	10	0	279	343	390	732	111	288	10	6	328	108	+6	+2	+2	+2	+14	2.7
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	425	105	28	0	12	34	68	9	5	1	247	316	398	714	151	256	14	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.3
2025	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	462	403	100	22	5	12	45	55	8	3	0	248	336	417	752	169	253	12	10	333	112	+6	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.0
2026	34	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	520	480	123	21	0	9	30	59	5	8	2	256	307	356	663	100	283	11	6	297	87	-8	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.6
2013	21	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	199	170	47	7	2	0	11	20	10	11	2	276	356	341	697	65	303	10	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	199	164	54	9	2	0	17	14	10	11	2	329	424	409	833	79	348	7	9	366	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	454	121	26	4	3	27	81	12	17	5	267	325	361	686	95	316	16	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	506	439	128	28	4	3	42	59	12	17	5	292	369	394	763	103	329	12	8	338	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	556	147	18	6	1	29	98	15	20	6	264	318	324	642	59	317	16	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	614	544	163	19	6	1	40	69	15	20	6	300	363	362	725	62	340	11	7	324	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	194	179	42	9	0	3	7	42	6	4	2	235	286	335	622	101	287	22	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	194	176	52	12	0	4	10	29	6	4	2	295	354	432	786	136	331	15	5	349	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	632	578	182	36	10	18	36	77	11	13	1	315	366	505	872	190	337	12	6	375	140	+30	+2	+3	+2	+14	5.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	632	564	190	37	11	22	50	66	11	13	1	337	402	559	960	222	351	10	8	416	140	+30	+2	+3	+2	+14	5.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	567	512	167	40	1	23	33	75	21	5	6	326	390	543	933	217	347	13	6	410	164	+43	-1	+1	-6	+12	4.9
2019	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	567	510	162	38	1	23	35	75	21	5	6	318	385	531	917	214	337	13	6	403	164	+43	-1	+1	-6	+12	4.9
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	209	185	59	15	0	4	18	24	3	0	2	319	388	465	853	146	344	11	9	375	140	+10	-1	+1	-2	+5	1.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	209	183	57	14	0	4	20	24	3	0	2	311	388	454	842	142	335	11	10	372	140	+10	-1	+1	-2	+5	1.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	401	105	22	1	8	30	63	10	3	0	262	329	382	710	120	293	14	7	318	102	+1	+1	+4	+2	+10	1.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	442	401	103	21	1	8	30	62	10	3	0	257	324	374	698	117	286	14	7	316	102	+1	+1	+4	+2	+10	1.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	534	179	41	1	9	39	61	11	4	0	335	392	466	858	131	362	10	7	382	145	+31	+1	+5	+2	+13	5.3
2022	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	589	533	174	39	1	9	40	61	11	4	0	326	385	454	839	128	353	10	7	373	145	+31	+1	+5	+2	+13	5.3
2023	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	648	585	163	27	4	10	39	65	18	10	0	279	343	390	732	111	298	10	6	328	108	+6	+2	+2	+2	+14	2.7
2023	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	648	585	158	25	4	10	39	65	18	10	0	270	335	378	713	108	288	10	6	320	108	+6	+2	+2	+2	+14	2.7
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	425	105	28	0	12	34	68	9	5	1	247	316	398	714	151	267	14	7	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.3
2024	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	472	424	101	26	0	12	35	68	9	5	1	238	310	384	694	146	256	14	7	310	100	+0	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.3
2025	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	462	403	100	22	5	12	45	55	8	3	0	248	336	417	752	169	259	12	10	333	112	+6	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.0
2025	33	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	462	399	97	21	5	12	49	55	8	3	0	243	338	411	749	168	253	12	11	332	112	+6	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.0
2026	34	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	520	480	123	21	0	9	30	59	5	8	2	256	307	356	663	100	274	11	6	297	87	-8	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.6
2026	34	MLB RAW	Athletics	—	520	478	126	23	0	9	31	59	5	8	2	264	315	368	683	105	283	11	6	305	87	-8	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.6
2013	21	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	199	176	47	7	2	0	11	20	10	11	2	267	356	330	686	62	284	10	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	462	121	26	4	3	27	81	12	17	5	262	325	355	680	93	302	16	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	565	147	18	6	1	29	98	15	20	6	260	318	319	637	58	306	16	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	194	179	42	9	0	3	7	42	6	4	2	235	286	335	622	101	289	22	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	632	580	182	36	10	18	36	77	11	13	1	314	366	503	870	190	331	12	6	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	567	508	167	40	1	23	33	75	21	5	6	329	390	547	938	219	337	13	6	410	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	209	186	59	15	0	4	18	24	3	0	2	317	388	462	851	145	335	11	9	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	399	105	22	1	8	30	63	10	3	0	263	329	383	712	120	285	14	7	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	589	534	179	41	1	9	39	61	11	4	0	335	392	466	858	131	353	10	7	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	648	586	163	27	4	10	39	65	18	10	0	278	343	389	732	111	288	10	6	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	426	105	28	0	12	34	68	9	5	1	246	316	397	713	150	256	14	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	462	406	100	22	5	12	45	55	8	3	0	246	336	414	749	167	253	12	10	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	520	480	123	21	0	9	30	59	5	8	2	256	307	356	663	100	283	11	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	472	426	105	28	0	12	34	68	9	5	1	246	316	397	713	150	256	14	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	462	406	100	22	5	12	45	55	8	3	0	246	336	414	749	167	253	12	10	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	520	480	123	21	0	9	30	59	5	8	2	256	307	356	663	100	283	11	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	440	401	107	20	2	9	31	55	5	6	2	268	328	394	722	126	290	12	7	322	104	+2	+0	+1	+2	+10	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	348	317	87	18	1	7	24	44	4	5	1	276	335	406	742	131	299	13	7	330	104	+2	+1	+1	+1	+8	1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	251	229	59	11	1	4	17	34	3	1	1	256	315	367	682	112	281	14	7	306	93	-2	-0	-6	+1	+5	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	251	229	60	12	1	4	17	34	3	1	1	263	321	379	700	116	289	14	7	313	93	-2	-0	-6	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4392	3952	1106	228	19	93	309	523	93	46	13	280	346	418	764	138	301	12	7	340	110	+84	+4	+10	+6	+95	20.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	164	34	3	14	46	77	14	7	2	280	348	421	768	140	301	12	7	340	110	+12	+1	+2	+1	+14	3.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6653	6008	1683	339	36	123	419	866	146	109	29	280	342	410	752	130	308	13	6	331	110	+86	+5	+11	+7	+103	21.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	165	33	4	12	41	85	14	11	3	281	343	412	755	131	310	13	6	331	110	+12	+1	+2	+1	+14	3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 16 PAwOBA .489 → .378 (−111)K% 25.0% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.21%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.032	×0.930	—	×0.982	24.13%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.897	×0.830	—	×0.982	16.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.01%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .489 → .378; ISO .333 → .239; BABIP .500 → .432. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 241 PAwOBA .431 → .359 (−71)K% 9.5% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.54%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	11.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.71%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.988	5.86%
HBP% /PA	2.07%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	1.74%
Singles /BIP	19.37%	÷1.009	×0.970	×0.950	×0.988	17.49%
Doubles /BIP	8.38%	÷0.906	×0.860	×0.950	×0.988	7.46%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.134	×0.950	×0.950	×0.988	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	7.33%	÷1.013	×0.780	—	×0.988	5.57%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 127, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .431 → .359; ISO .299 → .242; BABIP .316 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALas Vegas 51s · 143 PAwOBA .438 → .395 (−43)K% 13.3% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.29%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.32%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.70%
Singles /BIP	27.36%	÷0.992	×0.900	×1.045	×1.018	26.40%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷0.918	×0.810	×1.045	×1.018	8.85%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷0.959	×0.810	×1.045	×1.018	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷1.009	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.71%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 92, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .438 → .395; ISO .232 → .202; BABIP .394 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+St. Lucie Mets · 116 PAwOBA .373 → .305 (−68)K% 16.4% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.38%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	24.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.17%	÷0.957	×0.750	—	×0.978	3.96%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.930	—	×0.978	3.14%
Singles /BIP	27.91%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.950	×0.978	24.59%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.056	×0.960	×0.950	×0.978	6.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷0.911	×0.880	—	×0.978	3.30%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .373 → .305; ISO .152 → .127; BABIP .373 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 78 PAwOBA .293 → .243 (−50)K% 12.8% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.82%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	17.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.85%	÷1.015	×0.710	—	×1.033	2.78%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	2.60%
Singles /BIP	19.67%	÷0.994	×0.900	×0.955	×1.033	17.57%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.955	×1.033	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.810	×0.955	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷1.209	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.09%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .293 → .243; ISO .113 → .083; BABIP .274 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+St. Lucie Mets · 529 PAwOBA .328 → .281 (−47)K% 11.2% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.15%	÷0.992	×1.420	—	—	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.43%	÷1.023	×0.750	—	×0.998	4.70%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	2.11%
Singles /BIP	29.58%	÷1.049	×0.920	×0.993	×0.998	25.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.40%	÷1.055	×0.960	×0.993	×0.998	3.97%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.993	×0.998	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	0.24%	÷1.269	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.17%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 110, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .328 → .281; ISO .071 → .062; BABIP .353 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABinghamton Mets · 16 PAwOBA .208 → .188 (−20)K% 12.5% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	15.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.988	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.55%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.030	×0.970	—	×1.027	22.33%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.034	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.088	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .208 → .188; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 265 PAwOBA .371 → .321 (−50)K% 12.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.83%	÷1.018	×1.340	—	—	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.79%	÷1.053	×0.660	—	—	4.26%
HBP% /PA	3.02%	—	×0.770	—	—	2.32%
Singles /BIP	26.77%	÷1.017	×0.920	×1.006	—	24.37%
Doubles /BIP	10.10%	÷0.984	×0.820	×1.006	—	8.47%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷0.908	×0.940	×1.006	—	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	1.01%	÷0.987	×0.820	—	—	0.84%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 82, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .371 → .321; ISO .129 → .114; BABIP .379 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Cirillo'94-'07 * career totals — 14 seasons, 6,136 PA	9.2	6,136	112	63	283*	350*	414*	+14	+34	26.9	27.5
/162	664	12	7	+1.5	+3.7	2.9	pk7: 28
#2Carlos Guillen'98-'11 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,277 PA	7.9	5,277	124	74	274*	346*	434*	+25	-12	26.7	26.1
/162	664	16	9	+3.2	-1.5	3.4	pk7: 25
#3Pablo Sandovallast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,045 PA	7.6	5,045	153	12	278	330	444	+11	+1	24.9	24.6
/162	664	20	2	+1.4	+0.1	3.3	pk7: 24
#4Martín Pradolast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,812 PA	8.8	5,812	99	40	287	335	412	-3	+10	23.7	23.3
/162	664	11	5	-0.4	+1.2	2.7	pk7: 23
#5Bill Mueller'96-'06 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,886 PA	7.4	4,886	85	20	279*	359*	413*	+17	-7	23.9	21.9
/162	664	12	3	+2.3	-1.0	3.2	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.1	4,740	101	51	280	342	417	+17	+20	23.3	21.4
/162	664	14	7	+2.4	+2.8	3.3	pk7: 19
#6David Freeselast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,195 PA	6.3	4,195	112	8	277	351	423	+11	+7	23.1	21.0
/162	664	18	1	+1.7	+1.1	3.7	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeff McNeil (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	266/326/390	125	290	7	5	13%	7%	104	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Dobbs 2013 · MLB	35	54→58	44→55	45→50	43	267/299/386	119	308	12	5	18%	4%	92	+0.7	236/281/334	98	280	9	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	212/260/281	69	255	5	1	19%	5%	53	-0.7
●Denard Span 2018 · MLB	34	56→64	47→50	49→55	53	273/332/416	143	294	13	13	12%	8%	112	+2.2	260/334/416	156	291	14	11	15%	9%	112	+2.2	259/344/418	159	294	14	11	16%	10%	117	+2.1
✕Erick Aybar 2019 · MLB	35	49→59	43→45	47→60	49	236/294/345	109	266	10	13	16%	7%	82	-0.0	239/311/368	129	280	12	9	18%	8%	93	+0.8	237/312/356	118	280	10	6	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Eric Sogard 2021 · MLB	35	50→57	46→45	52→55	53	245/311/374	129	273	13	8	16%	8%	95	+0.9	239/293/350	111	279	10	10	17%	7%	82	-0.0	242/276/304	62	288	3	10	17%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Carlos Ruiz 2014 · MLB	35	57→63	46→50	49→45	49	279/337/416	137	297	13	5	12%	6%	114	+2.4	245/323/353	108	276	8	6	14%	9%	95	+0.9	236/326/329	93	270	6	5	14%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Ronny Paulino 2016 · AAA	35	51→61	44→50	46→40	48	250/298/368	118	287	12	4	17%	6%	88	+0.4	236/283/343	107	273	12	8	18%	6%	77	-0.3	225/268/302	77	255	11	7	16%	5%	60	-0.8
✕Gabriel Gutierrez 2019 · AAA	35	50	45	48→45	47	244/295/369	125	277	12	11	17%	6%	87	+0.4	255/305/392	137	284	15	11	16%	6%	97	+1.1	277/322/407	129	300	16	8	13%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Mark Kotsay 2012 · MLB	36	52→62	44→50	46→50	53	253/307/375	122	268	11	7	11%	7%	93	+0.8	237/295/338	101	261	9	5	13%	7%	80	-0.1	224/281/289	64	249	5	0	12%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Gerald Laird 2014 · MLB	34	54→47	42→50	44→50	53	259/329/368	109	295	8	6	15%	8%	99	+1.3	231/296/330	99	279	8	6	19%	8%	78	-0.3	199/261/248	49	253	0	0	20%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Alcides Escobar 2022 · MLB	35	51→61	43→45	51→55	43	249/295/368	119	295	10	7	19%	5%	87	+0.4	239/292/353	114	299	9	9	22%	6%	82	+0.0	221/262/291	71	297	0	5	24%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Fernando Viña 2004 · MLB	35	57→63	40	48→50	51	268/326/369	102	278	6	13	7%	5%	99	+1.2	241/312/351	110	258	9	11	10%	7%	90	+0.6	222/305/265	43	241	0	9	7%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Miguel Rojas 2024 · MLB	35	51→61	42→45	49→50	50	246/298/350	104	269	9	12	12%	6%	84	+0.1	261/315/384	123	285	11	11	12%	7%	98	+1.2	271/325/398	128	294	11	9	12%	7%	107	+0.9
✕Timo Perez 2010 · MLB	35	53→60	45→50	51→50	50	257/304/381	125	267	12	16	10%	6%	93	+0.8	244/283/342	98	265	8	14	11%	5%	76	-0.4	246/280/329	83	269	6	14	11%	4%	69	-0.7
✕Dioner Navarro 2019 · MLB	35	45→55	47→50	46→45	48	227/290/362	135	269	14	8	22%	8%	84	+0.1	222/297/340	118	273	12	8	22%	9%	82	-0.0	171/255/218	47	218	4	0	22%	9%	37	-0.6
✕Jesse Castillo 2017 · AAA	34	54→61	43→45	48→50	51	261/321/371	110	307	10	15	18%	8%	97	+1.1	257/313/386	129	298	14	12	18%	7%	98	+1.2	267/321/401	134	299	17	10	16%	7%	106	+1.4
✕Ramon Martinez 2007 · MLB	34	55→52	40→45	48→40	52	261/316/355	94	285	8	4	12%	7%	91	+0.7	232/291/311	79	258	6	6	12%	7%	72	-0.7	220/283/272	51	244	2	3	10%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Aaron Boone 2008 · MLB	35	51→57	46→60	46→55	49	253/323/384	131	286	14	8	17%	7%	102	+1.5	244/311/384	140	288	14	6	20%	8%	97	+1.1	237/294/377	140	281	14	0	20%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Ricky Gutierrez 2004 · MLB	34	55→58	41→45	42→45	50	266/321/361	96	288	9	4	12%	6%	95	+0.9	217/281/293	76	255	6	7	16%	7%	65	-1.2	182/252/207	24	221	0	4	16%	7%	33	-0.7
●Marco Scutaro 2011 · MLB	35	55→63	43→45	44→45	58	268/340/381	113	286	10	8	11%	10%	107	+1.8	285/341/391	106	303	8	7	9%	8%	109	+2.0	294/348/387	94	310	6	5	7%	7%	111	+2.0

Jeff McNeil

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps