Janson Junk
P
Miami Marlins
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 197 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87
ERA3.85
FIP3.77
K%17.1%
BB%4.7%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1017.9%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p530.309
SL+5.6 (36%)
SI (4%)
CU (7%)
CH (19%)
FB-3.4 (38%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 11.1% | 12.3% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 0.71 | 3.72 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.71 | 2.94 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 17 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 31 | 9 | 88% | 5.2 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.77 | 5.93 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 17 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 31 | 9 | 88% | 5.2 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 14 | 88 | 411 | 81 | 42 | 10 | 64% | 4.0 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.54 | 4.81 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 14 | 88 | 411 | 81 | 42 | 10 | 64% | 4.0 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 5.54 | 4.17 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 109 | 446 | 107 | 29 | 16 | 91% | 4.8 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 2.96 | 4.05 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 109 | 446 | 107 | 29 | 16 | 91% | 4.8 | 24.0% | 6.5% | 17.5% | 3.6% | 2.96 | 3.84 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 82 | 349 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 89% | 4.3 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 82 | 349 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 89% | 4.3 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 3.50 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 147 | 627 | 99 | 46 | 15 | 90% | 5.1 | 13.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.67 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 147 | 627 | 99 | 46 | 15 | 90% | 5.1 | 15.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.02 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 9 | 68 | 302 | 62 | 25 | 10 | 30% | 2.3 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 9 | 68 | 302 | 62 | 25 | 10 | 30% | 2.3 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 160 | 642 | 125 | 20 | 10 | 81% | 5.2 | 18.6% | 3.2% | 15.4% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 2.89 | +4.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 160 | 642 | 125 | 20 | 10 | 81% | 5.2 | 19.5% | 3.1% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 3.70 | 2.73 | +5.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 14 | 14 | 71 | 302 | 54 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 4.7% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.1% | 4.7% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.73 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 114 | 485 | 85 | 26 | 15 | — | — | 17.6% | 5.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.04 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 108 | 457 | 85 | 26 | 15 | — | — | 18.7% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 100 | 420 | 69 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 60 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 52 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 77 | 324 | 51 | 18 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 66 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 57 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 50 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 47 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 99 | 590 | 2495 | 409 | 126 | 78 | 88% | 5.3 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 139 | 43 | 26 | 88% | 5.3 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 196 | 141 | 827 | 3512 | 595 | 257 | 107 | 72% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 850 | 144 | 62 | 26 | 72% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Janson Junk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.89 | 16.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.64 | 15.6% | 10.1% | 276 | +0.75 | — | — | — |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 74 |
| Bruce Billings R 2025 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.01 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 0.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 121 | 72 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 71 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 71 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 70 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 70 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 70 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 70 |
| Casey Lawrence R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .305 | 3.98 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 86 | +0.06 | 3.50 | 1,320 | 69 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 68 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 68 |
| Leo Medrano R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.74 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 222 | 67 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 67 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.18 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.81 | 8.5% | -4.6% | 21 | +0.63 | 3.34 | 262 | 66 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 65 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 65 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 65 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 64 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 15.9% | 5.0% | 1.23 | 4.46 |
| Cole Irvin ('24) | 5 | 118 | 17.1% | 5.6% | 1.28 | 4.46 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Scott Feldman ('17) | 3 | 99 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 1.33 | 4.25 |
| Wei-Yin Chen ('19) | 5 | 110 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 1.43 | 4.49 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Wade LeBlanc ('21) | 6 | 81 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 4.61 |