Janson Junk
P
Miami Marlins
+1.5
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 197 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2026
ERA3.93
FIP3.77
xFIP4.36
SIERA4.48
K%18.7%
BB%4.9%
K-BB%13.7%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2026
K†4045
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SL+5.6 (38%)
SI (2%)
CU (8%)
CH (21%)
FB-3.4 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 0 | 13 | 61 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.71 | 3.72 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 17 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 31 | 9 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 3.77 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 14 | 88 | 411 | 81 | 42 | 10 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 23 | 21 | 109 | 446 | 107 | 29 | 16 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 4.18 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 19 | 17 | 82 | 349 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.00 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 26 | 147 | 627 | 99 | 46 | 15 | 13.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.46 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 30 | 9 | 68 | 302 | 62 | 25 | 10 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 25 | 160 | 642 | 125 | 20 | 10 | 18.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 2.86 | +4.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 3 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 17.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 348 | 62 | 18 | 9 | 17.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.65 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 99 | 417 | 74 | 22 | 11 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.70 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 65 | 20 | 10 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 63 | 15 | 9 | 18.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.97 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 54 | 14 | 8 | 18.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 45 | 13 | 8 | 17.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 16.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 14.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 130 | 773 | 3279 | 555 | 243 | 91 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 34 | 200 | 849 | 144 | 63 | 24 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Janson Junk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.07 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 239 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 77 |
| Donovan Hand R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.54 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.23 | 4.31 | 237 | 77 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 76 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 76 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.66 | 12.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | .353 | 3.76 | 10.8% | 4.1% | 172 | +0.10 | 3.61 | 326 | 76 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.65 | 10.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | .343 | 4.80 | 9.0% | 2.4% | 129 | +1.15 | 3.65 | 244 | 75 |
| Leo Medrano R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 75 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 74 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2029 · 3.64 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.64 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .313 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.51 | 3.41 | 394 | 74 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 74 |
| Bruce Billings R 2025 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 74 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.72 | 8.5% | -4.6% | 21 | +0.55 | 3.38 | 262 | 74 |
| Scott Feldman R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 73 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 73 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 72 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .353 | 3.35 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.54 | 3.27 | 283 | 72 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 72 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 71 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 71 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.96 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .286 | 5.08 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.12 | 3.96 | 248 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2021
Service 1.262 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $35M | +$26M | ||