Janson Junk — OGILVIE

Janson Junk P Miami Marlins

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.90

FIP3.79

K%16.0%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3535

CTRL7575

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1014.8%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL+5.6 (35%)

SI (4%)

CU (9%)

CH (18%)

FB-3.4 (38%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 1.262 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	11	0	13	61	10	6	0	0%	1.2	11.1%	12.3%	-1.1%	0.0%	0.71	3.72	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	11	0	13	61	10	6	0	0%	1.2	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	0.0%	0.71	2.94	—
2018	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	15	88	372	71	31	9	88%	5.2	14.1%	9.8%	4.3%	3.9%	3.77	5.28	—
2018	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	17	15	88	372	71	31	9	88%	5.2	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.4%	3.77	3.87	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	14	88	411	81	42	10	64%	4.0	15.6%	11.3%	4.2%	2.8%	5.54	4.74	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	14	88	411	81	42	10	64%	4.0	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	2.4%	5.54	4.17	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	109	446	107	29	16	91%	4.8	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.5%	2.96	4.23	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	109	446	107	29	16	91%	4.8	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	3.6%	2.96	3.84	+1.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	82	349	80	21	10	89%	4.3	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.01	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	82	349	80	21	10	89%	4.3	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	2.9%	4.83	3.50	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	147	627	99	46	15	90%	5.1	13.1%	6.7%	6.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.41	+0.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	147	627	99	46	15	90%	5.1	13.1%	6.7%	6.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.41	+0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	147	627	99	46	15	90%	5.1	15.8%	7.3%	8.5%	2.4%	4.21	4.02	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.87	4.21	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.87	4.21	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.29	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	18.2%	3.0%	15.2%	1.7%	3.70	2.87	+4.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	18.2%	3.0%	15.2%	1.7%	3.70	2.87	+4.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	19.5%	3.1%	16.4%	1.6%	3.70	2.73	+4.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			59	45	261	1108	185	54	31	76%	4.4	16.7%	4.9%	11.8%	2.8%	4.72	3.85	+3.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	25	24	117	498	80	30	14	96%	4.7	15.7%	6.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.17	+1.0
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	25	24	117	498	80	30	14	96%	4.7	15.7%	6.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.17	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIA	2	2	6	26	6	0	1	100%	2.9	23.1%	0.0%	23.1%	3.8%	3.18	3.26	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	MIA	23	22	111	472	74	30	13	96%	4.8	15.7%	6.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.54	4.09	+1.1
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	MIA	23	22	111	472	74	30	13	96%	4.8	15.7%	6.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.54	4.09	+1.1
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIA	2	2	10	43	7	2	1	100%	5.1	16.0%	5.1%	10.9%	2.5%	3.90	3.79	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	10	42	7	2	1	100%	5.0	16.0%	5.1%	10.9%	2.4%	3.83	3.72	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	127	541	87	32	15	—	—	16.1%	6.0%	10.1%	2.8%	4.43	4.14	+1.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	121	512	87	32	15	—	—	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.08	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	420	64	23	12	100%	5.9	15.3%	5.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.43	+0.5
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	92	388	56	23	12	100%	6.1	14.5%	5.9%	8.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.68	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	84	356	49	22	12	100%	6.0	13.7%	6.3%	7.3%	3.3%	4.80	4.96	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	95	401	61	22	11	100%	5.9	15.3%	5.5%	9.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.35	+0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	87	367	53	22	11	100%	6.2	14.5%	5.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.60	+0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	80	338	46	21	11	100%	6.2	13.7%	6.3%	7.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	91	533	2258	353	121	64	87%	5.1	15.6%	5.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.59	4.02	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	847	132	45	24	87%	5.1	15.6%	5.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.59	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		207	151	873	3708	610	259	105	73%	4.2	16.5%	7.0%	9.5%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	35	200	850	140	59	24	73%	4.2	16.5%	7.0%	9.5%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janson Junk (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.85	16.7%	3.4%	2.4%	—	4.68	14.5%	8.7%	276	+0.83	—	—	—
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	75
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	74
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	70
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	70
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	70
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	70
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,365	69
Jeremy Kehrt R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	12.7%	7.4%	2.2%	.333	4.71	8.5%	-4.6%	21	+0.54	3.37	262	69
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	69
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	69
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	68
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	68
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	68
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	67
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	67
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	67
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	66
Edgar Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	32	SP	4.29	11.0%	4.7%	2.8%	.293	3.62	10.8%	5.2%	216	-0.67	3.19	450	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	96	15.1%	5.2%	1.12	4.40
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13