Robbie Erlin
P
Oklahoma City Dodgers
Age 35
LHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.59
FIP4.74
K%20.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.3
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-1.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 142 | 627 | 115 | 39 | 23 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 5.50 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 142 | 627 | 115 | 39 | 23 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.3% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 5.50 | 4.41 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 16 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 67% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 5.6% | 4.02 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 16 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 67% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 5.2% | 4.02 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 39 | 12 | 109 | 439 | 88 | 12 | 12 | 31% | 2.8 | 20.0% | 2.7% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.37 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 39 | 12 | 109 | 439 | 88 | 12 | 12 | 31% | 2.8 | 20.0% | 2.7% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 3.25 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 74 | 341 | 72 | 18 | 9 | 2% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.3% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 6.05 | 3.60 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 74 | 341 | 72 | 18 | 9 | 2% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 6.05 | 3.46 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 5 | 27 | 122 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 56% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 8.10 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 5 | 27 | 122 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 56% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 8.10 | 5.80 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 79 | 371 | 70 | 36 | 15 | 61% | 3.4 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 7.06 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 79 | 371 | 70 | 36 | 15 | 61% | 3.4 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 7.06 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 17 | 16 | 79 | 363 | 65 | 31 | 19 | 94% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.83 | 6.03 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 17 | 16 | 79 | 363 | 65 | 31 | 19 | 94% | 4.6 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 5.83 | 5.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 5.06 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 23 | 226 | 946 | 189 | 39 | 31 | 25% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 3.74 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 20 | 200 | 837 | 167 | 34 | 27 | 25% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 77 | 526 | 2321 | 416 | 150 | 100 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 5.68 | 4.77 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 29 | 200 | 883 | 158 | 57 | 38 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 5.68 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robbie Erlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.11 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 42 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 74 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 69 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.96 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.85 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | -0.11 | 2.65 | 922 | 66 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 62 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 58 |
| Dana Eveland L 2024 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 54 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.24 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 4.29 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 81 | +0.05 | 2.35 | 306 | 49 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.86 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | .322 | 7.02 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +1.16 | 4.35 | 327 | 48 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 48 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 47 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.53 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .418 | 4.50 | 15.7% | 5.5% | 55 | -0.03 | 4.22 | 159 | 47 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 47 |
| Brandon Mann L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 46 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 46 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 46 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 127 | 44 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 44 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.24 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 650 | 44 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 44 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.42 | 16.1% | 19.2% | 2.3% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 294 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 45 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 1.33 | 4.74 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |