Robbie Erlin — OGILVIE

Robbie Erlin P Oklahoma City Dodgers

Age 35 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.57

FIP4.72

K%19.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.3

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	142	627	115	39	23	100%	5.3	16.3%	6.5%	9.8%	4.4%	5.50	4.94	-0.1
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	142	627	115	39	23	100%	5.3	18.3%	6.2%	12.1%	3.7%	5.50	4.41	+0.8
2016	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	3	2	16	58	13	3	3	67%	5.2	22.4%	5.2%	17.2%	5.0%	4.02	4.63	+0.0
2016	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	3	2	16	58	13	3	3	67%	5.2	22.4%	5.2%	17.2%	5.2%	4.02	4.50	+0.1
2018	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	39	12	109	439	88	12	12	31%	2.8	20.0%	2.7%	17.3%	2.7%	4.21	3.22	+1.8
2018	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	39	12	109	439	88	12	12	31%	2.8	20.0%	2.7%	17.3%	2.7%	4.21	3.25	+1.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	1	74	341	72	18	9	2%	1.5	19.9%	5.3%	14.6%	2.5%	6.05	3.48	+1.0
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	1	74	341	72	18	9	2%	1.5	21.1%	5.3%	15.8%	2.6%	6.05	3.46	+1.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	9	5	27	122	25	6	8	56%	3.0	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	6.6%	8.10	5.59	-0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	9	5	27	122	25	6	8	56%	3.0	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	6.6%	8.10	5.80	-0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	79	371	70	36	15	61%	3.4	16.8%	10.2%	6.6%	4.3%	7.06	5.31	-0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	79	371	70	36	15	61%	3.4	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	4.0%	7.06	5.16	-0.2
2023	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	17	16	79	363	65	31	19	94%	4.6	14.9%	7.7%	7.2%	5.7%	5.83	5.96	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	17	16	79	363	65	31	19	94%	4.6	14.9%	7.7%	7.2%	5.7%	5.83	5.96	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	17	16	79	363	65	31	19	94%	4.6	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	5.2%	5.83	5.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	23	226	944	189	39	31	25%	2.4	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.3%	5.03	3.73	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	LAD	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.57	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	LAD	40	0	42	179	34	17	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.6%	4.88	5.09	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.8%	4.97	5.18	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	23	226	946	189	39	31	25%	2.4	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.3%	5.02	3.74	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		83	20	200	837	167	34	27	25%	2.4	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.3%	5.02	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		168	77	526	2321	412	145	95	46%	3.1	17.8%	6.3%	11.5%	4.1%	5.68	4.64	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	29	200	883	157	55	36	46%	3.1	17.8%	6.3%	11.5%	4.1%	5.68	4.64	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robbie Erlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	19.8%	8.8%	3.3%	—	5.09	18.8%	9.4%	42	+0.37	—	—	—
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	72
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	69
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	62
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	58
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	55
David Price L 2021 · 3.82 FIP	35	SW	3.82	17.8%	7.4%	2.4%	.301	3.65	22.2%	18.0%	40	-0.17	2.65	922	55
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	49
Fernando Abad L 2021 · 4.24 FIP	35	SU	4.24	17.6%	6.4%	3.3%	.343	4.24	18.2%	12.6%	81	+0.00	2.37	306	49
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	48
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	47
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	47
Craig Breslow L 2016 · 4.26 FIP	35	SU	4.26	17.0%	9.2%	2.6%	.418	4.54	15.7%	5.5%	55	+0.28	4.22	159	47
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	46
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	46
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	44
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	44
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	43
Jorge De La Rosa L 2016 · 4.56 FIP	35	SP	4.56	17.3%	10.1%	3.0%	.315	4.08	19.9%	11.2%	107	-0.48	3.86	405	42
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	42
Jerry Blevins L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	35	SU	4.09	26.2%	9.9%	3.5%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	166	39

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	45	19.4%	9.1%	1.33	4.72
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79