Robbie Erlin
P
Oklahoma City Dodgers
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
LHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP5.83
SIERA5.73
K%21.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.6%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1089.3
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-1.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 27 | 27 | 142 | 627 | 115 | 39 | 23 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.50 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 16 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 22.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.02 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 39 | 12 | 109 | 439 | 88 | 12 | 12 | 20.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 3.23 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 50 | 1 | 74 | 341 | 72 | 18 | 9 | 19.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 6.05 | 3.50 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 5 | 27 | 122 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.10 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 | 14 | 79 | 371 | 70 | 36 | 15 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 7.06 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 17 | 16 | 79 | 363 | 65 | 31 | 19 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.83 | 6.05 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 25 | 9 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 77 | 526 | 2321 | 416 | 150 | 95 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 4.66 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 29 | 200 | 883 | 158 | 57 | 36 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.68 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robbie Erlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.02 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 64 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 80 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.23 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .343 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 81 | +0.02 | 2.38 | 306 | 78 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.65 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 40 | +0.02 | 2.58 | 922 | 74 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 650 | 71 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.28 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .418 | 4.63 | 15.7% | 5.5% | 55 | +0.35 | 4.28 | 159 | 70 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 69 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.98 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 166 | 66 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 66 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.79 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.94 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.15 | 4.49 | 408 | 64 |
| Dana Eveland L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 64 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 225 | 64 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.52 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.3% | .322 | 6.33 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +0.81 | 4.17 | 327 | 64 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.67 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 574 | 63 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 63 |
| Adam Loewen L 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 62 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 60 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.82 | 13.3% | 14.9% | 3.5% | .290 | 5.91 | 7.1% | 2.0% | 13 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 198 | 60 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.00 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 299 | 59 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 426 | 58 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.23 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 146 | 58 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.