David Shields

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.3 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP50OGV rank#22ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	MIX2 levels	19	19	76	2.38	2.11	28.5%	5.0%	—	K 21.0% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.80
2026	19	A+KC	25	25	117	4.01	2.55	29.7%	6.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	20	MLBKC	1	1	1	3.79	3.79	23.0%	5.6%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBKC	14	14	68	3.67	3.63	23.3%	5.6%	1.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBKC	20	20	100	3.59	3.51	24.1%	5.4%	2.1

Next 3 projected WAR 3.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$7M2032Arb-2$11M2033Arb-3$16M

Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -1.1 / P90 25, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 71%

CompsJohn Doxakis (age 22) · Rodney Boone (age 22) · Jordan Wicks (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%23.0%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%17.4%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$81M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.9	$19M	+$14M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+2.8	$16M	+$10M
2033	Arb-3	$16M	+2.9	$16M	+$7M
Totals		$36M		$93M	+$72M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	1.3%	2.38	2.80	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	1.3%	2.38	2.80	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	28.5%	5.0%	23.5%	1.3%	2.38	2.11	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.01	3.51	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.01	3.51	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	29.7%	6.0%	23.7%	2.1%	4.01	2.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	23.0%	5.6%	17.4%	2.8%	3.79	3.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	KC	28	28	137	577	135	32	16	100%	4.9	23.3%	5.6%	17.7%	2.8%	3.78	3.74	+2.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	137	577	139	31	16	100%	5.1	24.1%	5.4%	18.8%	2.7%	3.70	3.62	+2.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	137	577	143	30	16	100%	5.3	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.7%	3.61	3.53	+3.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	137	577	146	29	15	100%	5.7	25.3%	5.0%	20.2%	2.7%	3.52	3.45	+3.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	125	527	135	26	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	4.9%	20.8%	2.7%	3.45	3.40	+3.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	125	529	137	26	14	100%	6.0	25.8%	4.9%	21.0%	2.7%	3.40	3.37	+3.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	123	519	134	26	14	100%	6.2	25.8%	4.9%	20.9%	2.7%	3.41	3.41	+3.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	118	498	128	25	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.1%	20.6%	2.8%	3.46	3.50	+2.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	110	467	119	25	14	100%	6.1	25.5%	5.3%	20.2%	3.0%	3.56	3.63	+2.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	425	107	24	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	5.6%	19.5%	3.2%	3.71	3.80	+1.9
2038	31	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	380	94	23	13	100%	6.0	24.7%	5.9%	18.8%	3.4%	3.89	4.01	+1.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	334	81	21	12	100%	6.1	24.3%	6.3%	17.9%	3.6%	4.09	4.23	+1.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	289	69	20	11	100%	6.2	23.8%	6.8%	17.0%	3.9%	4.32	4.48	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	68	287	67	16	7	100%	4.9	23.3%	5.6%	17.7%	2.6%	3.67	3.63	+1.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	100	422	102	23	11	100%	5.0	24.1%	5.4%	18.8%	2.5%	3.59	3.51	+2.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	115	486	120	25	12	100%	5.5	24.8%	5.2%	19.6%	2.5%	3.50	3.42	+2.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	122	515	130	26	13	100%	5.5	25.3%	5.0%	20.2%	2.5%	3.41	3.34	+2.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	114	481	123	24	12	100%	6.0	25.6%	4.9%	20.8%	2.5%	3.34	3.29	+2.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	117	494	128	24	12	100%	5.8	25.8%	4.9%	21.0%	2.5%	3.29	3.26	+2.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	117	494	128	24	12	100%	5.8	25.8%	4.9%	20.9%	2.5%	3.30	3.30	+2.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	112	473	122	24	12	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.1%	20.6%	2.6%	3.34	3.38	+2.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	113	23	12	100%	5.8	25.5%	5.3%	20.2%	2.7%	3.44	3.51	+2.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	102	23	12	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.6%	19.5%	2.9%	3.58	3.67	+1.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	86	363	90	22	11	100%	6.1	24.7%	5.9%	18.8%	3.1%	3.75	3.87	+1.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	75	317	77	20	11	100%	6.2	24.3%	6.3%	17.9%	3.4%	3.94	4.08	+1.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	65	19	10	100%	5.9	23.8%	6.8%	17.0%	3.6%	4.16	4.32	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	225	1291	5452	1365	292	147	100%	5.7	25.0%	5.4%	19.7%	2.7%	3.52	3.15	+36.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	45	23	100%	5.7	25.0%	5.4%	19.7%	2.7%	3.52	3.15	+5.6
Career	—	MLE		44	44	192	770	170	51	16	100%	4.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.1%	3.37	3.23	+31.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	46	200	801	177	53	17	100%	4.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.1%	3.37	3.23	+4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 117 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.51 (+0.98)K% 29.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.70%	—	×0.770	22.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.98%	—	×1.150	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 72 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.80 (+0.85)K% 28.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.740	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.24%	—	×1.180	6.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Shields (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.63	24.1%	18.7%	410	-0.16	—	—	—
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.94	18.0%	5.4%	229	+1.75	3.19	332	83
Rodney Boone L 2022 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP	4.51	22.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.286	4.52	19.0%	9.7%	197	+0.01	3.64	311	80
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.12	20.9%	13.1%	278	+0.29	2.92	472	78
Nick Bush L 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SP	3.66	17.7%	5.6%	2.5%	.320	4.16	19.3%	14.0%	188	+0.50	3.48	320	78
Will Dion L 2022 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.00	20.3%	11.7%	332	+0.60	3.14	535	78
Logan Allen L 2021 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	26.3%	6.8%	3.5%	.260	4.52	22.5%	13.1%	424	+0.85	3.67	812	76
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	76
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.17	24.8%	17.3%	458	-0.74	2.97	580	76
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.03	23.6%	14.1%	414	-0.05	3.80	626	76
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	75
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	75
Ryan Smith L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	22.5%	6.9%	4.5%	.293	5.42	18.2%	6.2%	104	+0.87	4.55	233	75
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	75
Zac Lowther L 2018 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP	3.09	23.6%	8.1%	1.8%	.265	3.95	21.0%	9.6%	208	+0.86	3.09	375	74
Kirk McCarty L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP	4.12	19.7%	7.3%	3.2%	.330	4.73	17.7%	9.6%	180	+0.61	3.06	429	74
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	74
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	74
Shane Dawson L 2015 · 3.74 FIP	21	SP	3.74	17.2%	7.0%	2.2%	.294	5.11	11.6%	-0.4%	245	+1.37	3.74	373	73
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	73
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.1	116	24.8%	5.4%	1.12	3.66
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Marty Pattin ('68-'80, 21 WAR*)	10.2	157	19.9%*	6.9%*	1.34*	4.16*