David Shields — OGILVIE

David Shields P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.6 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%21.8%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$70M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4055

CTRL5060

CMD4060

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.5	$14M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$13M	+2.6	$14M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$19M	+2.7	$13M	+$4M
Totals		$42M		$75M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	1.3%	2.38	2.80	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	21.0%	6.2%	14.8%	1.3%	2.38	2.80	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	100%	4.0	28.5%	5.0%	23.5%	1.3%	2.38	2.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.01	3.51	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	22.9%	6.9%	16.0%	2.7%	4.01	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A+ RAW	KC	25	25	117	468	139	28	10	100%	4.7	29.7%	6.0%	23.7%	2.1%	4.01	2.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	120	507	114	27	14	100%	4.6	22.5%	5.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.79	3.75	+1.7
2028	21	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	126	532	122	28	14	100%	4.8	22.9%	5.3%	17.7%	2.7%	3.74	3.68	+1.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	132	559	133	28	15	100%	5.1	23.8%	5.0%	18.9%	2.6%	3.63	3.55	+2.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	137	580	142	28	15	100%	5.3	24.6%	4.8%	19.8%	2.6%	3.52	3.44	+2.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	141	594	149	27	15	100%	5.6	25.1%	4.5%	20.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.34	+2.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	142	602	153	26	15	100%	5.9	25.5%	4.4%	21.1%	2.6%	3.34	3.29	+2.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	142	602	155	26	15	100%	5.9	25.7%	4.4%	21.3%	2.6%	3.29	3.26	+2.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	140	593	152	26	15	100%	6.1	25.7%	4.4%	21.2%	2.6%	3.30	3.30	+2.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	136	575	147	26	16	100%	5.9	25.6%	4.6%	21.0%	2.7%	3.35	3.39	+2.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	130	549	139	26	16	100%	5.9	25.3%	4.8%	20.5%	2.9%	3.45	3.52	+2.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	122	516	129	26	16	100%	6.1	25.0%	5.1%	19.8%	3.1%	3.60	3.70	+1.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	481	118	26	16	100%	6.0	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	3.3%	3.78	3.90	+1.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	445	107	26	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	5.9%	18.2%	3.5%	3.99	4.13	+1.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	59	249	56	13	6	100%	4.5	22.5%	5.3%	17.2%	2.5%	3.68	3.64	+0.8
2028	21	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	92	388	89	20	10	100%	4.8	22.9%	5.3%	17.7%	2.5%	3.63	3.57	+1.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	112	473	113	24	12	100%	5.1	23.8%	5.0%	18.9%	2.4%	3.52	3.44	+1.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	123	519	127	25	12	100%	5.3	24.6%	4.8%	19.8%	2.4%	3.41	3.33	+2.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	130	549	138	25	13	100%	5.7	25.1%	4.5%	20.6%	2.4%	3.30	3.23	+2.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	KC	23	23	133	562	143	25	13	100%	5.8	25.5%	4.4%	21.1%	2.4%	3.23	3.18	+2.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	135	570	146	25	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	4.4%	21.3%	2.4%	3.18	3.15	+2.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	133	562	144	25	14	100%	6.0	25.7%	4.4%	21.2%	2.4%	3.19	3.19	+2.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	129	545	139	25	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	4.6%	21.0%	2.5%	3.24	3.28	+2.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	124	524	133	25	14	100%	5.9	25.3%	4.8%	20.5%	2.6%	3.33	3.40	+2.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	116	490	122	25	14	100%	6.1	25.0%	5.1%	19.8%	2.8%	3.47	3.57	+1.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	108	456	112	25	14	100%	6.0	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	3.0%	3.64	3.76	+1.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	100	422	102	25	14	100%	5.9	24.1%	5.9%	18.2%	3.3%	3.84	3.98	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	264	1496	6315	1566	307	162	100%	5.7	24.8%	4.9%	19.9%	2.6%	3.41	3.03	+35.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	209	41	22	100%	5.7	24.8%	4.9%	19.9%	2.6%	3.41	3.03	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		44	44	192	770	170	51	16	100%	4.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.1%	3.37	3.23	+27.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	46	200	801	177	53	17	100%	4.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.1%	3.37	3.23	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Shields (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	21.8%	5.2%	2.8%	—	3.66	23.1%	17.9%	378	-0.15	—	—	—
Francis Texido L 2023 · 3.64 FIP	18	SP	3.64	20.4%	7.4%	2.4%	.260	5.41	16.0%	-2.9%	285	+1.77	3.64	336	84
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	80
Marcelo Martinez L 2018 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	22.0%	6.5%	2.2%	.303	5.47	18.6%	10.2%	234	+2.18	3.29	427	80
Luis Cepeda L 2019 · 3.37 FIP	18	SP	3.37	21.3%	3.8%	2.9%	.306	5.06	17.7%	9.5%	22	+1.69	3.37	115	79
Cody Reed L 2016 · 3.34 FIP	20	SP	3.34	19.9%	7.3%	1.8%	.324	4.35	18.7%	10.3%	136	+1.01	3.34	212	78
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	17.9%	5.3%	229	+1.76	3.19	332	77
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	75
Yadiel Batista L 2023 · 3.00 FIP	19	SP	3.00	16.6%	1.6%	2.0%	.360	4.47	14.5%	5.5%	186	+1.47	3.00	225	75
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	75
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	75
Aneury Olivo L 2015 · 3.07 FIP	20	SP	3.07	18.9%	8.0%	1.0%	.357	4.57	12.3%	-1.2%	42	+1.50	3.07	108	74
Nestor Cortes L 2015 · 4.37 FIP	20	SP	4.37	18.0%	5.0%	3.9%	.246	3.36	20.5%	12.9%	308	-1.01	2.85	1,031	74
Eudis Idrogo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	20	SP	3.37	19.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.236	3.84	13.5%	7.7%	319	+0.47	3.37	364	73
Ryan Weathers L 2019 · 3.30 FIP	19	SP	3.30	16.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.338	5.75	15.6%	6.4%	218	+2.45	3.30	728	73
Andrew Suárez L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP	4.12	21.6%	4.0%	4.3%	.297	3.87	18.0%	11.7%	476	-0.25	3.52	717	73
Mitch Bratt L 2022 · 3.44 FIP	19	SP	3.44	21.8%	9.8%	1.7%	.302	3.64	22.0%	15.9%	294	+0.20	3.44	476	72
José Suarez L 2017 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	23.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.325	4.28	20.9%	11.3%	221	+0.07	2.86	909	71
Franklyn Soriano L 2015 · 2.82 FIP	20	SP	2.82	19.4%	8.5%	0.5%	.287	5.41	12.3%	0.5%	156	+2.59	2.82	241	71
Robby Snelling L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	19	SP	3.16	21.6%	9.4%	1.3%	.300	3.78	23.1%	14.2%	274	+0.62	2.95	378	71
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.7	124	24.6%	4.9%	1.07	3.54
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70