David Shields
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 19
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2033
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 108
ERA3.87
FIP3.87
K%21.8%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%16.1%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 76 | 302 | 86 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 1.2% | 2.38 | 2.75 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 76 | 302 | 86 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.5% | 5.0% | 23.5% | 1.3% | 2.38 | 2.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 17 | 17 | 77 | 313 | 92 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 2.0% | 4.11 | 3.45 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 50 | 212 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.8% | 5.7% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 5.7% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.82 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | KC | — | — | 127 | 525 | 138 | 37 | 11 | — | — | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.3% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 3.62 | +2.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 19 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.8% | 5.7% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 53 | 223 | 50 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 55 | 233 | 54 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 58 | 245 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 5.7% | 18.4% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.8% | 5.4% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 66 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 20.1% | 2.6% | 3.48 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.7% | 5.1% | 20.6% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 3.35 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 63 | 264 | 69 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.9% | 5.1% | 20.9% | 2.5% | 3.36 | 3.33 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 5.1% | 20.8% | 2.6% | 3.36 | 3.37 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 60 | 252 | 65 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 5.3% | 20.5% | 2.7% | 3.41 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 62 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.58 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 57 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 5.8% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 52 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.8% | 6.2% | 18.6% | 3.3% | 3.84 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 48 | 13 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.69 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.1% | 5.7% | 18.4% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 54 | 228 | 57 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.8% | 5.4% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.53 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 20.1% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.36 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 64 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.7% | 5.1% | 20.6% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.30 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 65 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 5.1% | 20.9% | 2.5% | 3.31 | 3.28 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 65 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 5.1% | 20.8% | 2.5% | 3.31 | 3.32 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 62 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.8% | 5.3% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 3.36 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 58 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 5.5% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.46 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.2% | 5.8% | 19.4% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 50 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 6.2% | 18.6% | 3.2% | 3.78 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 45 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 3.99 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 657 | 2774 | 695 | 154 | 74 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.0% | 5.5% | 19.5% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.16 | +17.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 212 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.0% | 5.5% | 19.5% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 3.16 | +5.2 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 152 | 615 | 134 | 47 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 3.25 | 3.11 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 47 | 200 | 807 | 176 | 62 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 3.25 | 3.11 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Shields (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.7% | 2.7% | — | 3.71 | 23.3% | 17.5% | 166 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jake Bennett L 2029 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 82 |
| Marcelo Martinez L 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.29 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.66 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 234 | +2.37 | 3.29 | 427 | 79 |
| Cody Reed L 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.26 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 1.7% | .324 | 4.29 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 136 | +1.03 | 3.26 | 212 | 79 |
| Mitch Bratt L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.54 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 294 | -0.05 | 3.08 | 427 | 78 |
| Luis Cepeda L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.37 | 21.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | .306 | 4.98 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 22 | +1.61 | 3.37 | 115 | 78 |
| John Doxakis L 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.21 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | .279 | 4.95 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 229 | +1.74 | 3.21 | 332 | 77 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.18 | 2.93 | 431 | 76 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 76 |
| Riley Frey L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .417 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 180 | +0.64 | 4.00 | 198 | 76 |
| Aneury Olivo L 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.07 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 1.0% | .357 | 4.57 | 12.3% | -1.2% | 42 | +1.50 | 3.07 | 108 | 76 |
| Michael Kennedy L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.97 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .294 | 4.71 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 122 | +0.74 | 3.54 | 237 | 74 |
| Yadiel Batista L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.08 | 16.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | .360 | 4.42 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 162 | +1.34 | 3.08 | 201 | 74 |
| Eudis Idrogo L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.37 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .236 | 4.05 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 319 | +0.68 | 3.37 | 364 | 74 |
| Ryan Weathers L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.19 | 16.9% | 5.4% | 1.5% | .338 | 5.69 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 218 | +2.50 | 3.19 | 689 | 73 |
| José Suarez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.07 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .325 | 4.36 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 221 | +0.29 | 2.86 | 898 | 73 |
| Nestor Cortes L 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.37 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | .246 | 3.39 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 308 | -0.98 | 2.87 | 1,031 | 73 |
| Robby Snelling L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.22 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 1.4% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 274 | +0.52 | 3.04 | 378 | 73 |
| Franklyn Soriano L 2027 · 2.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 2.82 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 0.5% | .287 | 5.43 | 12.3% | 0.5% | 156 | +2.61 | 2.82 | 241 | 73 |
| Thomas White L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.74 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .332 | 2.97 | 29.6% | 16.3% | 99 | -0.77 | 2.61 | 195 | 72 |
| Cristian Castillo L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.90 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .255 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 295 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 419 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 57 | 24.7% | 5.6% | 1.07 | 3.61 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |