David Shields — OGILVIE

David Shields P Quad Cities River Bandits

+0.9 WAR

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.9 · 2033

ERA4.13

FIP4.13

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.7%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.4%

IP72

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2033

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	A	Columbia Fireflies	19	19	76	302	86	15	4	21.0%	6.2%	1.3%	2.38	2.81	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	2	6	30	7	3	2	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
ROS	19	MLB	KC	13	13	72	303	69	25	8	22.7%	8.3%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.7
2026 Total	19	MLB	KC	—	—	78	333	76	28	10	22.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.51	3.81	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	20	MLB	KC	14	14	75	318	74	26	9	23.2%	8.2%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+0.9
2028	21	MLB	KC	14	14	79	334	79	27	9	23.6%	8.1%	2.7%	4.03	3.98	+1.0
2029	22	MLB	KC	15	15	83	351	86	27	9	24.5%	7.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.84	+1.2
2030	23	MLB	KC	19	19	106	448	113	33	12	25.2%	7.4%	2.6%	3.81	3.72	+1.9
2031	24	MLB	KC	23	23	125	527	136	38	14	25.7%	7.2%	2.6%	3.70	3.63	+2.4
2032	25	MLB	KC	25	25	138	585	153	41	15	26.1%	7.1%	2.6%	3.63	3.58	+2.7
2033	26	MLB	KC	26	26	146	614	162	43	16	26.3%	7.0%	2.6%	3.59	3.56	+2.9
2034	27	MLB	KC	27	27	148	627	165	44	16	26.3%	7.1%	2.6%	3.58	3.57	+2.9
2035	28	MLB	KC	27	27	148	626	164	45	16	26.3%	7.1%	2.6%	3.59	3.59	+2.9
2036	29	MLB	KC	26	26	145	612	160	44	16	26.1%	7.2%	2.6%	3.62	3.64	+2.7
2037	30	MLB	KC	26	26	141	594	154	43	16	25.9%	7.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.70	+2.6
2038	31	MLB	KC	25	25	136	573	147	43	16	25.7%	7.4%	2.8%	3.73	3.77	+2.4
2039	32	MLB	KC	24	24	130	550	140	42	16	25.4%	7.6%	2.9%	3.81	3.86	+2.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			21	21	82	332	70	22	6	21.2%	6.5%	1.8%	2.87	3.10	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			51	51	200	813	171	54	15	21.2%	6.5%	1.8%	2.87	3.10	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Shields (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	22.7%	8.3%	2.8%	—	3.96	23.8%	15.8%	238	-0.17	—	—	—
Marcelo Martinez L 2028 · 3.29 FIP	21	SW	3.29	22.0%	6.5%	2.2%	.303	5.49	18.6%	10.2%	234	+2.20	3.29	427	90
Cody Reed L 2027 · 3.37 FIP	20	SW	3.37	19.9%	7.3%	1.9%	.324	4.34	18.7%	10.3%	136	+0.97	3.37	212	87
Jake Bennett L 2029 · 3.40 FIP	22	SW	3.40	21.2%	7.2%	2.1%	.339	3.17	17.4%	10.3%	83	-0.23	1.70	146	83
Dominic LoBrutto L 2029 · 3.21 FIP	22	SW	3.21	21.4%	6.9%	1.9%	.333	3.46	17.8%	10.6%	84	+0.25	2.99	135	82
Alex Delgado L 2027 · 2.92 FIP	20	SU	2.92	24.2%	6.8%	1.8%	.318	3.66	16.0%	9.4%	195	+0.74	2.92	378	82
José Torres L 2028 · 3.35 FIP	21	SW	3.35	19.7%	8.3%	1.6%	.262	4.13	21.2%	13.6%	130	+0.78	3.35	204	81
Denny Roman L 2026 · 3.24 FIP	19	SU	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.50	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.26	3.24	109	81
Pablo Aldonis L 2027 · 4.29 FIP	20	SU	4.29	20.7%	8.0%	3.5%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.65	1.89	108	80
Josh Hendrickson L 2028 · 3.81 FIP	21	SU	3.81	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.70	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.89	3.81	255	80
Jorge Rodriguez L 2025 · 2.90 FIP	18	SU	2.90	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	.289	4.28	12.7%	5.6%	68	+1.38	2.90	178	79
Cameron Ming L 2029 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.58	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.77	3.81	111	78
Joe Filomeno L 2029 · 2.81 FIP	22	SW	2.81	20.3%	7.3%	0.9%	.277	4.77	20.5%	5.4%	93	+1.96	2.81	150	78
Leo Crawford L 2026 · 3.74 FIP	19	SW	3.74	16.6%	7.3%	2.0%	.266	3.90	15.8%	8.5%	372	+0.16	2.05	567	78
Aneury Olivo L 2027 · 3.07 FIP	20	SW	3.07	18.9%	8.0%	1.0%	.357	4.57	12.3%	-1.2%	42	+1.50	3.07	108	78
Nestor Cortes L 2027 · 4.37 FIP	20	SW	4.37	18.0%	5.0%	3.9%	.246	3.36	20.5%	12.9%	308	-1.01	2.85	1,031	78
Carlos Peña L 2027 · 3.17 FIP	20	SU	3.17	23.8%	10.5%	1.4%	.301	3.97	19.1%	10.2%	145	+0.80	3.17	520	78
José Suarez L 2026 · 4.25 FIP	19	SW	4.25	23.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.325	4.32	20.9%	11.3%	221	+0.07	2.86	848	77
Eudis Idrogo L 2027 · 3.37 FIP	20	SU	3.37	19.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.236	3.85	13.5%	7.7%	319	+0.48	3.37	364	77
Franklyn Soriano L 2027 · 2.82 FIP	20	SW	2.82	19.4%	8.5%	0.5%	.287	5.40	12.3%	0.5%	156	+2.58	2.82	241	77
David Speer L 2029 · 3.30 FIP	22	SW	3.30	17.1%	5.5%	1.7%	.343	2.99	16.6%	11.0%	176	-0.31	2.65	293	76

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.4	$22M	+$21M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.7	$26M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.9	$29M	+$18M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+2.9	$29M	+$14M
Totals		$35M		$134M	+$99M