Ryan Smith
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 28
LHP
5'11" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.5%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 23 | 129 | 534 | 153 | 33 | 20 | 96% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 4.7% | 4.24 | 4.63 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 23 | 129 | 534 | 153 | 33 | 20 | 96% | 5.4 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 22.5% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 3.51 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 32 | 10 | 79 | 358 | 81 | 35 | 17 | 31% | 2.5 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 6.75 | 5.72 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 32 | 10 | 79 | 358 | 81 | 35 | 17 | 31% | 2.5 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 6.75 | 5.18 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 14 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 13.1% | 20.0% | -6.9% | 0.9% | 6.48 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 14 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 14.9% | 19.0% | -4.1% | 0.8% | 6.48 | 4.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.21 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 33 | 233 | 1013 | 207 | 98 | 46 | 47% | 3.3 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 870 | 178 | 84 | 39 | 47% | 3.3 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.59 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 75 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 69 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 67 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 66 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 66 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 64 |
| Andy Otero L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 63 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 62 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 62 |
| Rito Lugo L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 176 | 62 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 61 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 61 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 61 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 61 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 60 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 60 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 59 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.72 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.7% | .329 | 4.99 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.27 | 3.72 | 333 | 59 |