Kyle Teel
C Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AABOS | 505 | .288/.391/.433 | 13 | 12 | 97 | — | .259/.337/.373 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAACWS | 213 | .295/.394/.492 | 8 | 7 | 99 | — | .257/.333/.377 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBCWS | 297 | .273/.376/.411 | 8 | 3 | 126 | 2.8 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAACWS | 58 | .358/.414/.566 | 3 | 0 | 126 | — | .315/.362/.463 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBCWS | 144 | .210/.338/.361 | 5 | 0 | 101 | 0.7 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBCWS | 238 | .230/.321/.378 | 7 | 3 | 98 | 0.8 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 325 | .230/.321/.378 | 10 | 4 | 98 | 1.1 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 325 | .229/.320/.375 | 10 | 4 | 97 | 1.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 39 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 323 | 462 | 484 | 945 | 161 | 474 | 28 | 21 | 425 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 66 | 53 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 377 | 492 | 453 | 945 | 75 | 465 | 17 | 17 | 425 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 123 | 102 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 377 | 343 | 720 | 88 | 333 | 24 | 16 | 333 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 382 | 325 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 87 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 298 | 395 | 462 | 857 | 163 | 371 | 23 | 13 | 379 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 297 | 253 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 273 | 376 | 411 | 787 | 138 | 361 | 26 | 12 | 355 | 126 | +9 | +0 | +2 | +9 | +6 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 213 | 183 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 54 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 295 | 394 | 492 | 886 | 197 | 380 | 25 | 14 | 393 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 144 | 119 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 338 | 361 | 699 | 151 | 312 | 35 | 13 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +3 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 58 | 53 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 358 | 414 | 566 | 980 | 208 | 432 | 22 | 7 | 431 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 441 | 372 | 94 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 128 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 364 | 395 | 759 | 142 | 348 | 29 | 13 | 343 | 118 | +10 | +0 | +2 | +13 | +10 | 3.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 39 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 303 | 410 | 455 | 865 | 152 | 464 | 33 | 15 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 66 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 385 | 351 | 735 | 53 | 388 | 23 | 11 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 123 | 108 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 241 | 328 | 324 | 652 | 83 | 326 | 28 | 11 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 382 | 339 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 265 | 340 | 389 | 729 | 124 | 341 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 297 | 253 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 273 | 376 | 411 | 787 | 138 | 361 | 26 | 12 | 354 | 126 | +9 | +0 | +2 | +9 | +6 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 213 | 191 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 65 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 257 | 333 | 377 | 710 | 120 | 367 | 31 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 144 | 119 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 338 | 361 | 699 | 151 | 312 | 35 | 13 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +3 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 58 | 54 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 362 | 463 | 825 | 148 | 407 | 28 | 5 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 105 | 91 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 297 | 385 | 385 | 769 | 88 | 413 | 27 | 11 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 105 | 84 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 481 | 464 | 945 | 107 | 468 | 21 | 18 | 425 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 447 | 115 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 137 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 257 | 335 | 365 | 699 | 107 | 343 | 27 | 10 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 427 | 123 | 23 | 0 | 13 | 68 | 116 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 288 | 391 | 433 | 824 | 145 | 362 | 23 | 13 | 368 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 444 | 118 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 59 | 142 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 266 | 358 | 396 | 755 | 131 | 364 | 28 | 12 | 338 | 115 | +9 | +1 | +2 | +9 | +11 | 3.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 510 | 436 | 123 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 67 | 131 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 282 | 384 | 445 | 829 | 163 | 369 | 26 | 13 | 371 | 115 | +9 | +1 | +2 | +9 | +11 | 3.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 202 | 173 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 345 | 393 | 738 | 150 | 350 | 33 | 11 | 328 | 108 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 202 | 172 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 360 | 424 | 784 | 169 | 356 | 32 | 11 | 351 | 108 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 105 | 91 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 297 | 385 | 385 | 769 | 88 | 416 | 27 | 11 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 448 | 115 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 137 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 257 | 335 | 364 | 699 | 107 | 337 | 27 | 10 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 441 | 118 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 59 | 142 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 268 | 358 | 399 | 757 | 132 | 363 | 28 | 12 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 202 | 173 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 345 | 393 | 738 | 150 | 340 | 33 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 448 | 115 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 137 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 257 | 335 | 364 | 699 | 107 | 337 | 27 | 10 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 441 | 118 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 59 | 142 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 268 | 358 | 399 | 757 | 132 | 363 | 28 | 12 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 202 | 173 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 345 | 393 | 738 | 150 | 340 | 33 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 426 | 374 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 121 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 146 | 300 | 28 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 238 | 208 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 148 | 301 | 29 | 11 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 353 | 309 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 100 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 146 | 300 | 28 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 353 | 309 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 101 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 319 | 372 | 691 | 144 | 299 | 29 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 350 | 306 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 101 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 317 | 367 | 684 | 141 | 298 | 29 | 11 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 337 | 295 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 98 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 314 | 360 | 674 | 137 | 296 | 29 | 10 | 305 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +6 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 325 | 284 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 96 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 310 | 352 | 662 | 132 | 294 | 30 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -4 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 291 | 256 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 306 | 342 | 647 | 126 | 291 | 30 | 10 | 294 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | CWS | 92% | 255 | 224 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 299 | 328 | 628 | 118 | 286 | 30 | 10 | 286 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 325 | 284 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 92 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 148 | 301 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 325 | 284 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 146 | 300 | 29 | 10 | 313 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 322 | 281 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 93 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 318 | 370 | 688 | 143 | 299 | 29 | 11 | 310 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 310 | 271 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 90 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 315 | 363 | 678 | 139 | 297 | 29 | 10 | 306 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 299 | 263 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 311 | 355 | 666 | 134 | 295 | 29 | 10 | 301 | 89 | -4 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 268 | 236 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 306 | 344 | 651 | 128 | 292 | 30 | 10 | 295 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | CWS | 92% | 235 | 207 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 300 | 331 | 631 | 120 | 287 | 30 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +5 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2525 | 2198 | 503 | 80 | 5 | 72 | 272 | 735 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 229 | 323 | 368 | 691 | 139 | 307 | 29 | 11 | 312 | 97 | -11 | +1 | -15 | +50 | +55 | 8.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 130 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 70 | 189 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 322 | 371 | 694 | 141 | 307 | 29 | 11 | 312 | 97 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +13 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3824 | 3346 | 791 | 126 | 7 | 100 | 402 | 1102 | 44 | 45 | 13 | 236 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 132 | 319 | 29 | 11 | 312 | 97 | -14 | +2 | -18 | +57 | +64 | 9.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 134 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 187 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 325 | 366 | 690 | 130 | 317 | 29 | 10 | 312 | 97 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +13 | +14 | 2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 58 PAwOBA .419 → .355 (−64)K% 22.4% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 34.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .419 → .355; ISO .208 → .152; BABIP .432 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 213 PAwOBA .383 → .315 (−67)K% 25.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.35% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.08% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.13% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×1.037 | ×1.050 | 27.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.050 | 7.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×1.037 | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.45% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .383 → .315; ISO .197 → .132; BABIP .380 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 382 PAwOBA .374 → .320 (−54)K% 22.8% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.77% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.73% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 27.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.69% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .374 → .320; ISO .163 → .129; BABIP .371 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 123 PAwOBA .328 → .286 (−42)K% 23.6% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.58% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.26% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.77% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 28.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.11% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .286; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 66 PAwOBA .421 → .333 (−88)K% 16.7% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 22.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 9.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.10% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 32.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .421 → .333; ISO .075 → .061; BABIP .465 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 39 PAwOBA .415 → .355 (−59)K% 28.2% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 14.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 36.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.050 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.91% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .415 → .355; ISO .161 → .126; BABIP .474 → .464. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).