Blake Sabol — OGILVIE

Blake SabolC Durham Bulls

Age 28 L/R 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION259 act + 172 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .281 / .351

PA172

HR5

K%31

BB%7

BABIP291

ISO134

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT30

Whiff%

1016.9%

xwOBA

280.282

POWER45

Barrel%

6810.9

Avg EV

5089.2

Bat Spd

5672.0

EYE55

Chase%

4632.4%

SPEED50

Sprint

4727.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.1M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$1M		$1M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	288	261	66	13	3	7	23	110	2	6	2	253	318	406	724	153	404	38	8	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	288	245	76	14	3	13	39	84	2	6	2	310	409	551	960	241	420	29	14	417	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	568	517	120	27	5	16	39	191	5	11	3	232	292	397	689	164	328	34	7	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	568	494	138	28	6	20	62	144	5	11	3	279	365	482	847	202	350	25	11	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	344	310	77	11	0	14	24	117	6	4	2	248	315	419	734	171	348	34	7	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.5
2023	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	344	310	73	10	0	13	24	117	6	4	2	235	303	394	696	158	330	34	7	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.2
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	441	393	89	13	1	9	37	118	4	11	1	226	300	333	633	107	296	27	8	277	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	441	377	95	16	1	11	53	107	4	11	1	252	350	387	737	135	319	24	12	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	271	242	34	10	1	3	23	99	5	7	2	140	230	227	457	87	220	37	8	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	271	234	42	12	1	6	31	83	5	7	2	179	289	316	605	137	247	31	11	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	259	241	53	9	0	8	15	88	2	8	2	220	271	357	628	137	308	34	6	273	67	-10	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.3
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	259	234	61	11	0	10	22	73	2	8	2	261	329	436	765	175	336	28	8	340	118	+5	+1	+0	+5	+7	1.8
ROS	28	AAA	TB	10%	172	156	34	6	0	5	12	53	2	4	1	217	281	351	632	134	292	31	7	288	79	-4	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.2
ROS	28	MLB	TB	10%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	295	29	6	281	73	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	AAA	TB	—	276	257	56	10	0	8	16	93	2	8	2	218	269	350	619	132	306	34	6	273	67	-10	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.3
TOT	28	AAA	TB	—	431	397	87	15	0	13	27	141	4	12	3	219	275	355	630	136	301	33	6	279	72	-14	+1	-2	+8	+12	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TB	33%	376	342	75	13	1	11	27	116	4	8	2	219	284	360	644	140	290	31	7	286	77	-10	+1	-5	+7	+11	0.3
2027	29	MLB	TB	33%	123	112	25	4	0	4	9	38	1	3	1	223	287	366	653	143	294	31	7	279	71	-4	+0	-2	+2	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	540	486	113	18	0	17	40	176	8	7	3	233	301	374	676	142	323	33	7	300	88	-7	+0	-5	+21	+15	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	136	22	0	20	48	212	10	8	4	232	302	373	674	140	324	33	7	300	88	-9	+0	-6	+26	+18	3.0
Career	—			—	2460	2221	495	93	11	65	185	804	28	51	13	223	291	362	653	140	313	33	8	286	77	-63	+5	-10	+44	+70	4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	131	25	3	17	49	212	7	13	3	223	291	363	654	140	314	33	8	286	77	-17	+1	-3	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	229	199	59	12	3	11	27	72	1	6	0	296	383	553	936	256	407	31	12	404	168	+17	+1	—	—	+6	2.6
2021	23	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	59	46	17	2	0	2	12	12	1	0	2	370	508	543	1.052	174	469	20	20	468	216	+8	-1	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	101	81	24	3	1	5	17	22	2	1	0	296	430	543	973	247	345	22	17	424	182	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	412	366	103	23	5	14	38	107	2	9	2	281	352	486	839	205	355	26	9	364	137	+17	+1	—	—	+12	3.0
2022	24	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	47	11	2	0	1	7	15	1	1	1	234	345	340	686	106	323	27	13	318	102	+0	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	344	310	73	10	0	13	24	117	6	4	2	235	303	394	696	158	330	34	7	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.2
2024	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	38	32	10	2	0	0	5	9	1	0	0	312	421	375	796	62	435	24	13	369	141	+2	+0	-0	+8	+1	1.1
2024	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	403	345	85	14	1	11	48	98	3	11	1	246	343	388	732	142	308	24	12	326	108	+4	+2	—	—	+11	1.7
2025	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	18	16	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	125	176	188	364	62	200	39	6	160	-19	-2	+0	-0	+5	+1	0.3
2025	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	253	218	40	11	1	6	30	76	5	7	2	183	296	326	622	142	250	30	12	288	78	-6	+1	—	—	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	400	358	85	13	0	13	30	133	7	4	2	237	309	383	692	145	335	33	8	308	94	-3	+0	-3	+19	+11	2.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	5	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
	/162	664	24	5	248	301	431	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	502	18	7	230	294	383	+9	-1	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	23	10	230	294	383	+11.9	-1.5	2.3	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blake Sabol (OGILVIE)	28	30	45	50	55	219/275/355	136	301	13	12	33%	6%	72	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	36→43	49→50	46→40	50	190/284/340	150	262	16	6	32%	11%	75	-0.0	214/291/357	143	326	16	7	36%	10%	82	+0.5	207/287/340	133	326	15	4	38%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Isan Díaz 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	53→55	46→45	47	217/298/391	173	286	22	8	31%	10%	93	+1.3	214/285/396	182	277	26	9	32%	8%	89	+1.0	178/253/347	170	203	29	6	30%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕César Salazar 2023 · AAA	27	40	50→45	47→45	40	213/272/360	147	258	19	9	26%	5%	76	+0.0	209/299/331	122	250	13	7	21%	8%	79	+0.3	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	52→55	46→40	48	203/292/382	179	269	18	6	31%	10%	89	+1.0	195/284/360	165	248	20	6	29%	10%	81	+0.4	169/268/327	158	201	23	3	29%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	40	47→50	48→40	48	204/290/339	135	259	14	5	26%	9%	78	+0.2	218/297/342	124	289	13	7	27%	9%	81	+0.4	195/295/265	70	263	10	0	27%	12%	58	-0.2
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	42	220/270/377	157	256	20	12	24%	5%	79	+0.3	219/286/373	154	263	20	9	24%	7%	84	+0.6	177/272/313	136	213	19	8	27%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Jason Smith 2005 · MLB	28	46→35	51→55	49→50	43	234/281/401	167	279	17	9	23%	6%	88	+0.9	222/264/375	153	293	16	12	29%	5%	74	-0.1	214/252/367	153	289	17	12	32%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Johnny Monell 2014 · AAA	28	43→44	49→50	43→45	47	218/291/369	150	287	16	6	29%	9%	85	+0.7	225/282/345	120	285	12	8	24%	7%	74	-0.1	232/283/341	109	291	11	4	23%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2022 · AAA	28	42	50→55	43→45	42	218/275/381	163	272	17	7	26%	6%	81	+0.4	200/264/356	156	259	17	8	29%	7%	70	-0.3	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Josh VanMeter 2023 · MLB	28	41→47	49→55	49→50	53	212/299/366	154	266	16	9	26%	11%	87	+0.8	203/306/333	130	272	14	9	28%	12%	82	+0.5	169/296/280	111	230	13	8	30%	14%	63	-0.3
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	41	48→45	46→30	43	210/274/348	137	279	17	4	30%	8%	72	-0.2	197/260/308	111	344	12	5	43%	7%	56	-1.3	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Nolan Fontana 2019 · MLB	28	40→43	43→40	51→50	51	198/284/313	115	267	10	12	28%	10%	68	-0.5	202/287/326	124	291	12	10	32%	10%	72	-0.2	124/238/209	86	192	10	0	38%	12%	22	-0.8
✕Skye Bolt 2022 · MLB	28	46→39	51→50	53→50	44	233/295/399	166	302	19	13	29%	7%	94	+1.3	234/298/369	135	314	15	12	29%	7%	87	+0.8	227/296/337	110	316	12	9	30%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	47	229/290/350	121	273	12	17	21%	7%	79	+0.3	228/308/352	124	288	13	12	24%	10%	87	+0.8	220/310/331	111	279	11	10	23%	11%	81	+0.1
✕Drew Robinson 2019 · MLB	27	45→40	52→55	47→50	44	222/293/394	172	328	19	11	36%	9%	92	+1.2	209/284/348	139	363	15	14	42%	9%	76	+0.1	162/249/275	112	309	12	16	47%	9%	43	-0.6
✕JD Closser 2008 · MLB	28	42	47→50	45	52	212/289/351	138	253	15	7	22%	10%	79	+0.3	209/273/306	97	265	9	6	23%	8%	60	-1.0	209/267/281	72	262	7	6	22%	7%	48	-0.9