Sean Burke
P
Chicago White Sox
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10495vR 86
ERA3.66
FIP3.95
K%25.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 176 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p7326.4%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
SL+2.4 (18%)
SI (15%)
CT (6%)
CU (21%)
CH-0.6 (3%)
FB-1.3 (53%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 23.9% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 2.65 | 3.49 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 34.2% | 15.1% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 2.65 | 2.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 108 | 466 | 137 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 4.0 | 24.2% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.57 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 108 | 466 | 137 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 4.0 | 29.4% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 3.70 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 9 | 9 | 37 | 166 | 34 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 17.1% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 7.61 | 6.25 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 9 | 9 | 37 | 166 | 34 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.5% | 16.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.61 | 6.65 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 91 | 388 | 125 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 3.9 | 27.7% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 4.2% | 4.07 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 91 | 388 | 125 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 3.9 | 32.2% | 12.4% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 147 | 655 | 148 | 68 | 26 | 81% | 4.7 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 25 | 147 | 655 | 148 | 68 | 26 | 81% | 4.7 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 4.53 | 4.77 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 19 | 15 | 106 | 435 | 115 | 33 | 13 | 79% | 5.6 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 3.47 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 70 | 297 | 76 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 25.4% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 3.3% | 3.66 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 70 | 296 | 75 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 25.4% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 3.69 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 176 | 732 | 191 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 3.51 | 3.66 | +3.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 176 | 744 | 191 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 25.6% | 8.1% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 3.52 | 3.67 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 127 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 127 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 118 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 108 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 121 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 120 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 112 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 103 | 43 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 123 | 770 | 3265 | 802 | 308 | 116 | 92% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 32 | 200 | 848 | 208 | 80 | 30 | 92% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 104 | 505 | 2183 | 529 | 247 | 78 | 90% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 865 | 209 | 98 | 31 | 90% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Burke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | — | 4.50 | 24.8% | 15.3% | 356 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 75 |
| Alec Marsh R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.91 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 424 | 74 |
| Nate Karns R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 73 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.15 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .306 | 4.38 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 73 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 73 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.76 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .297 | 3.91 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 73 | +0.15 | 3.76 | 537 | 69 |
| Brian Van Belle R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.31 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 4.9% | .289 | 3.41 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 199 | -1.90 | 2.90 | 556 | 69 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 68 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.38 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.42 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 25 | -0.96 | 3.42 | 237 | 67 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.94 | 28.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .270 | 3.19 | 33.6% | 25.2% | 157 | -0.75 | 2.21 | 778 | 67 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 67 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 66 |
| Trevor Richards R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.20 | 27.7% | 18.1% | 160 | -0.05 | 2.61 | 890 | 66 |
| J.T. Ginn R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.07 | 26.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% | .307 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 103 | +0.18 | 3.13 | 501 | 66 |
| Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.99 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .302 | 4.02 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 323 | +0.03 | 3.01 | 603 | 66 |
| Joe Kelly R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.19 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.68 | 2.48 | 556 | 66 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.33 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 428 | 66 |
| Gavin Stone R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.02 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 485 | 66 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .315 | 4.80 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 188 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 738 | 65 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 116 | 24.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.52 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |