Sean Burke — OGILVIE

Sean Burke P Chicago White Sox

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION156 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.77

FIP4.05

K%25.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

SL+2.4 (18%)

SI (14%)

CT (9%)

CU (20%)

CH-0.6 (2%)

FB-1.3 (51%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.064 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	23.9%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	2.65	3.49	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	34.2%	15.1%	19.2%	0.0%	2.65	2.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.8%	4.75	4.63	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	29.4%	10.3%	19.1%	3.2%	4.75	3.70	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	17.0%	14.6%	2.4%	5.2%	7.61	6.36	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	17.0%	14.6%	2.4%	5.2%	7.61	6.36	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	20.5%	16.3%	4.2%	5.4%	7.61	6.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	26.5%	11.2%	15.3%	4.2%	4.07	4.61	+0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	26.5%	11.2%	15.3%	4.2%	4.07	4.61	+0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	32.2%	12.4%	19.8%	3.9%	4.07	4.08	+0.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	4.0%	4.53	4.77	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	50	309	1321	324	126	43	82%	5.1	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.3%	3.72	4.03	+3.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	25	156	649	169	56	18	86%	5.4	26.0%	8.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.58	3.49	+2.7
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	29	25	156	649	169	56	18	86%	5.4	26.0%	8.6%	17.4%	2.7%	3.58	3.49	+2.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	CWS	29	25	156	649	169	56	18	86%	5.4	26.0%	8.6%	17.4%	2.8%	3.58	3.52	+2.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CWS	29	25	156	649	169	56	18	86%	5.4	26.0%	8.6%	17.4%	2.8%	3.58	3.52	+2.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	15	65	16	6	2	100%	7.7	25.3%	9.4%	15.9%	3.5%	3.77	4.05	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	15	63	16	6	2	100%	7.5	25.3%	9.4%	15.9%	3.5%	3.81	4.09	+0.2
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	171	714	185	62	20	—	—	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	2.8%	3.59	3.54	+2.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	171	724	185	62	20	—	—	25.6%	8.6%	17.0%	2.8%	3.60	3.56	+2.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	26	26	154	652	163	62	21	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.4%	15.6%	3.2%	4.21	4.34	+1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	26	26	154	652	163	63	22	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	3.3%	4.34	4.42	+0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	623	152	61	22	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.5%	4.49	4.58	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	139	586	138	59	22	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	129	546	125	57	21	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.9%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	120	505	111	55	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	4.2%	5.12	5.28	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	147	621	155	59	20	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.4%	15.6%	3.3%	4.24	4.37	+1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	147	621	155	60	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.45	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	23	23	140	591	144	58	21	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.5%	4.52	4.61	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	132	557	132	56	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.83	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	123	519	119	54	21	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	4.0%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	114	481	106	52	20	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	4.2%	5.16	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	186	1127	4772	1150	471	169	94%	5.7	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.6%	4.37	4.26	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	204	84	30	94%	5.7	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.6%	4.37	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		126	114	555	2397	576	259	86	90%	4.4	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	3.6%	4.38	4.40	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	863	207	93	31	90%	4.4	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	3.6%	4.38	4.40	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Burke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	22.9%	10.8%	3.7%	—	4.44	24.8%	15.1%	456	-0.51	—	—	—
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	77
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	75
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	74
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	74
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.39	21.0%	11.4%	292	+0.35	4.04	577	73
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	70
Trevor Richards R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	26	SP-	4.19	21.9%	8.6%	3.4%	.281	4.19	27.7%	18.1%	160	-0.00	2.64	927	69
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	68
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	68
Alec Marsh R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	25	SP-	4.70	23.6%	11.6%	3.9%	.325	3.94	23.3%	16.3%	148	-0.76	3.94	424	68
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	68
Dinelson Lamet R 2017 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.1%	11.2%	3.0%	.270	3.02	33.6%	25.2%	157	-0.78	2.11	778	68
Brian Van Belle R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	18.2%	8.3%	5.0%	.289	3.50	17.2%	12.3%	199	-1.83	3.13	556	68
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	5.00	25.1%	16.4%	112	+0.31	2.33	484	68
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	68
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	68
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	67
Graham Ashcraft R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	17.8%	8.3%	3.4%	.285	3.51	20.6%	11.5%	172	-1.02	2.67	569	67
Jesse Scholtens R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP	3.84	19.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.360	4.18	21.5%	13.2%	185	+0.34	3.40	876	67
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	137	23.8%	10.1%	1.40	4.60
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45