Sean Burke

P Chicago White Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	23	22	91	4.07	4.08	32.2%	12.4%	1.4	K 27.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.54
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	25	147	4.53	4.77	22.6%	10.4%	1.1	K 22.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.63
2026	26	MLBCWS	32	27	172	3.34	3.47	25.8%	8.7%	4.1
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	22	22	135	4.12	4.29	24.7%	9.4%	1.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCWS	18	18	108	4.30	4.41	24.6%	9.6%	1.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCWS	15	15	91	4.46	4.57	24.0%	9.8%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.064First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$4M2030Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%70

xwOBA vs62

FB Velo54

Form3.47 ERA (proj 4.12) · K 23.3% (proj 24.7%) · BB 11.7% (proj 9.4%) ▼ last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsJames McDonald (age 27) · Bud Norris (age 27) · Max Scherzer (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.12

FIP4.29

K%24.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.064 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$14M	+$14M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$10M	+$7M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$29M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	23.9%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	2.65	3.49	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	17	73	25	11	0	100%	2.4	34.2%	15.1%	19.2%	0.0%	2.65	2.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.8%	4.75	4.63	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	108	466	137	48	15	96%	4.0	29.4%	10.3%	19.1%	3.2%	4.75	3.70	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	17.6%	14.6%	3.0%	5.2%	7.61	6.31	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	166	34	27	9	100%	4.1	20.5%	16.3%	4.2%	5.4%	7.61	6.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	27.2%	11.2%	16.0%	4.2%	4.07	4.54	+0.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	27.2%	11.2%	16.0%	4.2%	4.07	4.54	+0.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	91	388	125	48	15	96%	3.9	32.2%	12.4%	19.8%	3.9%	4.07	4.08	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.8%	4.53	4.63	+1.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	147	655	148	68	26	81%	4.7	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	4.0%	4.53	4.77	+1.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.6%	3.34	3.45	+4.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.6%	3.34	3.45	+4.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	27	172	716	185	62	19	84%	5.4	25.8%	8.7%	17.2%	2.7%	3.34	3.47	+4.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	52	326	1388	340	132	44	81%	5.1	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.2%	3.59	3.98	+5.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	22	22	135	570	141	54	18	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.4%	15.2%	3.1%	4.12	4.29	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	113	478	117	46	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.2%	4.27	4.38	+1.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	402	96	40	13	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.3%	4.43	4.54	+1.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	80	337	78	34	12	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	+0.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	272	61	28	10	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.8%	4.83	4.97	+0.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	48	205	44	22	8	100%	6.1	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	4.0%	5.07	5.23	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	108	456	112	44	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.3%	4.30	4.41	+1.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	91	384	92	38	13	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.4%	4.46	4.57	+0.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	75	32	12	100%	5.8	23.3%	10.1%	13.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.77	+0.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	61	258	58	27	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.8%	4.87	5.01	+0.3
2032	32	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	42	21	8	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	4.1%	5.11	5.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	116	707	2998	718	294	101	91%	5.5	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.17	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	848	203	83	29	91%	5.5	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.17	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		129	116	572	2464	596	265	87	90%	4.4	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.5%	4.28	4.35	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	862	208	93	30	90%	4.4	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.5%	4.28	4.35	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 13 IPFIP 4.82 → 4.55 (−0.27)K% 25.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.42%	—	×0.860	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷1.320	×1.100	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 4.82 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 64 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.90 (+0.40)K% 31.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.05%	—	×0.860	26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.00%	—	×0.900	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.33%	÷1.016	×1.100	4.69%

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL White Sox · 7 IPFIP 2.38 → 4.61 (+2.24)K% 48.6% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.57%	—	×0.680	33.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.250	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.076	×1.400	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 37 IPFIP 6.41 → 6.31 (−0.10)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.48%	—	×0.860	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.27%	—	×0.900	14.64%
HR / BF /BF	5.42%	÷1.152	×1.100	5.17%

Result: FIP 6.41 → 6.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABirmingham Barons · 73 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.58 (+0.89)K% 31.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.23%	—	×0.810	25.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.41%	—	×1.100	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.056	×1.200	3.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 28 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.77 (+1.18)K% 27.4% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.43%	—	×0.770	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×1.150	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.955	×1.250	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 7 IPFIP 4.04 → 3.94 (−0.09)K% 19.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.880	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.050	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.421	×1.100	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 184).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 14 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.49 (+1.08)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.740	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.13%	—	×1.180	19.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Burke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	24.7%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.53	24.0%	14.2%	288	+0.24	—	—	—
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	73
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	68
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	67
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	65
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	64
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	957	64
Lance Lynn R 2014 · 3.26 FIP	27	SP	3.26	20.9%	8.2%	1.6%	.286	4.02	20.9%	12.0%	362	+0.76	2.85	2,006	64
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	63
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	63
Joe Kelly R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	19.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.309	3.21	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.71	2.38	883	63
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	63
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	62
John Maine R 2008 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.262	4.64	17.3%	6.3%	121	+0.44	3.91	582	61
Jason Hammel R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	27	SP	3.45	18.3%	6.0%	2.1%	.324	4.13	16.5%	8.2%	428	+0.68	3.10	1,810	61
Kyle Gibson R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	27	SP	3.72	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.26	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.54	3.56	1,920	61
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	60
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	60
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	1,034	60
Brandon Morrow R 2011 · 3.49 FIP	27	SP	3.49	26.1%	8.8%	2.7%	.291	4.05	20.2%	11.7%	212	+0.56	2.67	922	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	108	24.1%	9.7%	1.28	4.13
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Héctor Santiago ('21)	4.7	105	20.7%	10.6%	1.38	4.12
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45