Justin Crawford — OGILVIE

Justin CrawfordCF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 22 L/R 6'2" / 188 lbs MLB HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.3 · 2030

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .317 / .370

PA250

HR4

SB12

K%22

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

46↗55

PWR

32↗40

SPD

70↗71

FLD

46↗51

EYE

43↘38

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$21M	+$20M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$25M	+$24M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.1	$27M	+$20M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.3	$30M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+3.2	$30M	+$11M
Totals		$40M		$135M	+$94M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	66	60	12	0	1	0	5	21	1	10	4	.200	.273	.233	.506	.033	.308	32	8	.217	24	-6	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
2023	19	A	2 teams	390	358	110	20	6	3	23	94	4	47	8	.307	.356	.422	.778	.115	.405	24	6	.335	115	+6	+6	+0	+1	+11	2.6
2024	20	A+	2 teams	497	468	128	21	4	8	21	120	3	42	9	.274	.309	.387	.696	.113	.351	24	4	.298	86	-8	+5	+0	+2	+14	1.3
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	506	461	146	20	5	6	37	110	1	46	11	.317	.369	.421	.790	.104	.403	22	7	.344	121	+12	+5	+0	+2	+14	3.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	78	69	18	5	1	0	7	15	2	1	1	.261	.346	.362	.708	.101	.333	19	9	.320	103	+0	-0	-2	+0	+2	0.0
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	172	157	41	7	1	2	12	38	1	11	2	.261	.318	.357	.674	.096	.333	22	7	.311	96	-1	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.6
TOT	22	MLB	PHI	250	226	59	12	2	2	19	53	3	12	3	.261	.327	.358	.685	.097	.331	21	8	.314	99	-0	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB	PHI	636	583	153	25	5	10	43	134	5	41	8	.262	.319	.374	.692	.111	.321	21	7	.309	95	-4	+5	-0	+2	+18	2.2
2028	24	MLB	PHI	648	590	155	25	5	12	47	136	6	41	8	.263	.323	.383	.707	.120	.320	21	7	.316	100	-0	+5	-0	+2	+18	2.6
2029	25	MLB	PHI	653	593	157	26	5	13	49	136	6	42	8	.265	.327	.391	.718	.126	.320	21	8	.320	103	+2	+5	-0	+2	+19	2.8
2030	26	MLB	PHI	653	592	157	26	5	14	50	136	6	42	7	.265	.329	.397	.726	.132	.320	21	8	.321	104	+3	+6	-0	+2	+19	3.0
2031	27	MLB	PHI	648	586	154	25	5	13	51	136	6	41	7	.263	.328	.389	.717	.126	.320	21	8	.322	104	+3	+5	-0	+2	+18	2.9
2032	28	MLB	PHI	640	579	152	25	4	13	50	136	6	40	7	.263	.328	.387	.714	.124	.320	21	8	.320	103	+2	+5	-1	+2	+18	2.8
2033	29	MLB	PHI	628	567	148	24	4	13	50	135	6	38	6	.261	.327	.386	.714	.125	.319	21	8	.319	102	+1	+5	-2	+2	+18	2.5
2034	30	MLB	PHI	616	557	144	23	4	12	49	134	5	36	5	.259	.324	.379	.703	.120	.318	22	8	.316	100	-0	+5	-3	+2	+17	2.3
2035	31	MLB	PHI	601	543	140	23	4	11	48	134	5	32	4	.258	.324	.376	.700	.118	.317	22	8	.312	97	-2	+5	-3	+2	+17	1.9
2036	32	MLB	PHI	582	526	133	21	4	10	46	132	5	28	3	.253	.319	.365	.684	.112	.316	23	8	.307	93	-5	+4	-4	+2	+16	1.5
2037	33	MLB	PHI	552	500	123	19	3	9	43	129	4	25	2	.246	.311	.350	.661	.104	.315	23	8	.301	89	-7	+4	-5	+2	+16	1.1
2038	34	MLB	PHI	504	456	112	17	3	8	39	122	4	21	2	.246	.311	.349	.659	.103	.314	24	8	.295	84	-9	+3	-5	+2	+14	0.5
2039	35	MLB	PHI	447	407	97	15	3	6	34	113	3	18	1	.238	.302	.334	.636	.096	.312	25	8	.288	78	-11	+3	-6	+2	+13	0.1
2040	36	MLB	PHI	386	351	82	12	2	5	29	102	3	15	1	.234	.298	.322	.620	.088	.310	26	8	.279	72	-12	+3	-7	+1	+11	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9825	8934	2344	374	73	168	726	2198	80	616	103	.262	.323	.377	.700	.115	.329	22	7	.312	97	-33	+82	-37	+35	+278	33.1
/ 162G	—			650	591	155	25	5	11	48	145	5	41	7	.262	.322	.377	.700	.115	.329	22	7	.312	97	-2	+5	-2	+2	+18	2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	3	0	0	0	2	9	0	2	1	.143	.217	.143	.360	.000	.250	39	9	.179	-5	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	43	37	11	0	1	0	5	6	1	8	3	.297	.395	.351	.747	.054	.355	14	12	.346	123	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	82	73	21	6	2	0	7	16	2	7	1	.288	.366	.425	.791	.137	.368	20	9	.354	129	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	308	276	95	16	6	3	25	53	2	40	7	.344	.403	.478	.881	.134	.413	17	8	.386	153	+19	+5	—	—	+9	3.3
2024	20	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	180	165	55	11	0	3	11	29	2	15	1	.333	.382	.455	.837	.121	.388	16	6	.370	141	+8	+3	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	317	292	88	14	4	6	21	64	1	27	8	.301	.350	.438	.789	.137	.368	20	7	.348	124	+9	+2	—	—	+9	2.0
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	506	440	147	23	4	7	58	91	1	46	11	.334	.413	.452	.865	.118	.407	18	11	.383	152	+29	+5	—	—	+14	5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Crawford (OGILVIE)	22	46→55	32→40	70→71	38	.264/.321/.368	.104	.319	3	16	19%	7%	96	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Mallex Smith 2016 · AAA	23	56→61	38→45	64→65	48	.260/.321/.346	.086	.331	5	45	22%	8%	90	+1.0	.262/.321/.364	.102	.336	5	41	22%	8%	94	+1.3	.265/.331/.373	.108	.337	5	43	21%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Everth Cabrera 2010 · MLB	23	52→59	39→40	61→65	48	.243/.310/.342	.099	.312	5	34	22%	8%	85	+0.7	.238/.305/.324	.086	.311	4	36	23%	8%	78	+0.2	.260/.326/.339	.079	.330	3	54	20%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Micah Johnson 2014 · AA	23	51→59	40→45	61→60	43	.241/.289/.339	.099	.318	6	33	26%	6%	74	-0.1	.254/.299/.351	.097	.327	6	28	23%	6%	82	+0.5	.254/.299/.343	.089	.327	6	27	23%	6%	76	+0.0
●Dee Strange-Gordon 2011 · AA	23	54→64	36→40	60→65	43	.255/.294/.328	.073	.311	3	33	19%	4%	73	-0.1	.251/.292/.313	.062	.309	2	45	18%	5%	69	-0.4	.308/.341/.394	.087	.364	3	55	15%	4%	106	+2.0
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	54→59	45→50	62→60	50	.264/.324/.399	.135	.301	11	33	16%	7%	105	+2.1	.250/.317/.380	.130	.300	11	33	19%	8%	98	+1.6	.252/.331/.406	.154	.301	15	28	21%	9%	106	+2.2
✕Delino DeShields 2015 · AA	22	47→53	42→45	63→65	45	.226/.295/.333	.107	.303	9	42	27%	8%	76	+0.1	.228/.304/.326	.098	.306	7	32	25%	9%	79	+0.3	.226/.309/.316	.089	.304	7	31	25%	10%	75	-0.0
●Michael Bourn 2007 · AAA	24	53→62	39→45	63→65	45	.248/.301/.341	.092	.326	6	30	25%	7%	79	+0.3	.250/.308/.340	.090	.321	5	42	22%	8%	82	+0.5	.276/.342/.360	.084	.347	2	52	19%	9%	96	+1.6
✕Ben Revere 2011 · MLB	23	61→65	36→40	58→65	49	.285/.332/.353	.068	.320	2	32	12%	6%	95	+1.4	.274/.314/.325	.051	.306	1	35	10%	5%	80	+0.4	.303/.332/.358	.055	.334	1	38	9%	4%	93	+1.1
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	52→59	41→45	59→65	49	.247/.305/.351	.104	.294	8	34	18%	7%	85	+0.7	.222/.280/.339	.117	.266	11	37	20%	7%	72	-0.2	.220/.290/.331	.110	.269	10	28	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Roman Quinn 2016 · AA	23	50→56	42→45	59→65	43	.239/.294/.340	.101	.313	9	34	26%	6%	77	+0.1	.248/.302/.353	.105	.339	7	35	27%	7%	84	+0.6	.253/.308/.365	.112	.348	6	42	27%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Dalton Pompey 2015 · MLB	22	52→58	41→45	61→55	47	.244/.306/.355	.111	.320	7	27	25%	8%	86	+0.8	.249/.305/.347	.098	.317	7	24	22%	7%	83	+0.6	.250/.308/.341	.091	.317	7	25	22%	7%	81	+0.3
●Brett Gardner 2007 · AA	23	55→59	35→55	62→65	51	.251/.323/.320	.069	.334	2	36	24%	9%	84	+0.6	.255/.324/.342	.087	.330	3	40	21%	9%	90	+1.0	.248/.332/.422	.175	.280	19	16	18%	10%	111	+2.5
✕José Peraza 2017 · MLB	23	57→64	38→45	60→65	42	.270/.296/.354	.084	.305	5	33	14%	3%	80	+0.4	.264/.301/.353	.089	.296	8	23	13%	4%	83	+0.6	.262/.305/.370	.108	.288	9	16	13%	4%	85	+0.5
●Carl Crawford 2004 · MLB	22	56→65	40→55	64→65	44	.267/.300/.362	.094	.308	6	37	16%	4%	84	+0.6	.288/.323/.431	.143	.321	11	43	13%	5%	112	+2.6	.302/.341/.465	.163	.337	13	47	14%	5%	125	+3.8
●Erick Aybar 2006 · AA	22	54→64	43→50	58→60	45	.259/.300/.380	.121	.282	9	31	12%	4%	90	+1.0	.250/.287/.353	.103	.281	7	27	13%	4%	77	+0.1	.273/.310/.401	.128	.296	9	21	11%	4%	98	+1.5
✕Kyle Wren 2014 · A	23	53→59	41→40	61→60	45	.254/.293/.359	.105	.293	7	30	16%	5%	81	+0.4	.251/.295/.317	.066	.311	2	30	19%	6%	71	-0.3	.248/.308/.321	.072	.317	4	25	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Ryan Brett 2014 · AA	22	52→55	41→45	59→60	45	.249/.295/.357	.108	.296	8	27	19%	6%	82	+0.5	.243/.280/.350	.107	.297	9	19	21%	4%	74	-0.1	.229/.261/.327	.098	.288	8	15	23%	3%	57	-0.7
●Andrés Giménez 2021 · MLB	22	49→59	43→50	56→55	40	.235/.290/.355	.120	.303	9	26	25%	5%	80	+0.4	.255/.316/.408	.153	.312	16	23	23%	5%	105	+2.1	.262/.326/.420	.159	.312	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.1
●Garin Cecchini 2013 · A	22	51→61	39→45	58→55	44	.240/.292/.333	.093	.308	5	26	23%	6%	74	-0.1	.250/.315/.352	.102	.327	7	17	24%	8%	89	+1.0	.240/.307/.336	.096	.316	7	13	24%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Billy Hamilton 2013 · AA	22	53→60	36→40	75→70	46	.245/.303/.322	.077	.335	2	68	26%	8%	76	+0.0	.240/.287/.323	.083	.309	4	68	22%	6%	69	-0.4	.242/.301/.319	.077	.310	4	55	22%	8%	70	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)