Justin Crawford — OGILVIE

Justin CrawfordCF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 22 L/R 6'2" / 188 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION428 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .250

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP326

ISO102

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

570.257

POWER40

Barrel%

101.5

Avg EV

2687.3

Bat Spd

2268.4

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED71

Sprint

9029.5

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%16%▲▲12% over 66 PA (30d) · proj 21%

BB%6%▼6% over 141 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.096·.087 over 126 AB (60d) · proj .102

HR/BB1.4%·0.9% over 113 BBE (60d) · proj 1.9%

BABIP.329▼.295 over 112 BIP (60d) · proj .334

SLASH.281/.327/.377·proj .269/.321/.372

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.7	$10M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.8M
Totals		$31M		$41M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	23	21	3	0	0	0	2	9	0	2	1	143	217	143	360		250	39	9	179	7	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	43	37	11	0	1	0	5	6	1	8	3	297	395	351	747	54	355	14	12	346	120	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	82	73	21	6	2	0	7	16	2	7	1	288	366	425	791	137	368	20	9	354	126	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	308	276	95	16	6	3	25	53	2	40	7	344	403	478	881	134	413	17	8	386	147	+17	+5	—	—	+7	3.0
2024	20	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	180	165	55	11	0	3	11	29	2	15	1	333	382	455	837	121	388	16	6	370	137	+8	+3	—	—	+4	1.5
2024	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	317	292	88	14	4	6	21	64	1	27	8	301	350	438	789	137	368	20	7	348	121	+8	+2	—	—	+7	1.8
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	440	147	23	4	7	58	91	1	46	11	334	413	452	865	118	407	18	11	383	146	+27	+5	—	—	+11	4.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	23	22	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	2	1	91	130	91	221		230	57	4	122	-31	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	43	39	9	0	1	0	3	9	1	8	3	231	302	282	584	51	293	21	7	257	60	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	19	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	82	75	19	5	2	0	5	22	2	7	1	253	317	373	690	120	339	27	6	286	80	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	308	283	90	15	5	3	18	74	2	40	7	318	363	438	801	120	407	24	6	345	120	+7	+5	—	—	+7	1.9
2024	20	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	180	168	52	10	0	2	8	36	2	15	1	310	348	405	753	95	374	20	4	323	105	+1	+3	—	—	+4	0.8
2024	20	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	317	299	78	12	4	5	14	84	1	27	8	261	296	378	674	117	339	26	4	289	82	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	21	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	461	144	20	4	5	37	110	1	46	11	312	365	406	770	93	393	22	7	338	115	+9	+5	—	—	+11	2.5
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	66	60	11	0	1	0	5	21	1	10	4	183	258	217	474	33	282	32	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	66	58	14	0	1	0	7	15	1	10	4	241	333	276	609	34	326	23	11	288	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	358	108	20	6	3	23	95	4	47	8	302	351	416	767	115	399	24	6	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	390	349	116	22	8	3	32	69	4	47	8	332	395	467	862	135	404	18	8	379	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	497	467	129	21	4	7	22	120	3	42	9	276	313	383	696	107	357	24	4	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	497	457	143	25	4	9	32	93	3	42	9	313	362	444	806	131	375	19	6	356	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	461	144	20	4	5	37	110	1	46	11	312	365	406	770	93	399	22	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	440	147	23	4	7	58	91	1	46	11	334	413	452	865	118	407	18	11	383	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	66	60	11	0	1	0	5	21	1	10	4	183	258	217	474	33	271	32	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	360	108	20	6	3	23	95	4	47	8	300	351	414	765	114	393	24	6	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	497	469	129	21	4	7	22	120	3	42	9	275	313	382	695	107	352	24	4	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	463	144	20	4	5	37	110	1	46	11	311	365	404	769	93	393	22	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	360	108	20	6	3	23	95	4	47	8	300	351	414	765	114	393	24	6	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	497	469	129	21	4	7	22	120	3	42	9	275	313	382	695	107	352	24	4	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	463	144	20	4	5	37	110	1	46	11	311	365	404	769	93	393	22	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	PHI	—	428	392	104	18	4	3	25	75	3	16	4	265	314	355	669	89	319	18	6	291	83	-9	+2	-2	+2	+9	0.2
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	PHI	—	428	392	104	18	4	3	25	75	3	16	4	265	314	355	669	89	319	18	6	297	83	-9	+2	-2	+2	+9	0.2
YTD	22	MLB RAW	PHI	—	428	392	104	18	4	3	25	75	3	16	4	265	314	355	669	89	319	18	6	297	87	-7	+2	-2	+2	+9	0.4
ROS	22	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		323	22	11	304	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	22	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		326	22	11	303	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	MLB A+C	PHI	—	437	400	106	18	4	3	26	77	3	16	4	265	315	352	667	87	319	18	6	297	83	-9	+2	-2	+2	+9	0.2
TOT	22	MLB MLE	PHI	—	437	400	106	18	4	3	26	77	3	16	4	265	315	352	667	87	319	18	6	291	83	-9	+2	-2	+2	+9	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	546	502	136	22	5	7	35	103	4	28	6	271	323	376	700	106	323	19	6	311	97	-2	+3	-5	+2	+12	1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	590	543	148	24	5	9	38	109	4	30	6	273	325	385	710	112	324	18	6	317	101	+1	+4	-6	+2	+13	1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	637	586	160	25	5	11	42	117	4	33	7	273	326	389	715	116	324	18	7	321	104	+3	+4	-6	+2	+14	1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	648	596	164	26	5	12	43	119	4	33	7	275	328	396	724	121	324	18	7	323	105	+4	+4	-6	+2	+14	1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	643	590	162	25	5	12	44	118	4	33	7	275	329	395	724	120	324	18	7	323	105	+4	+4	-6	+2	+14	1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	635	582	160	25	5	12	44	118	4	31	6	275	330	397	727	122	324	19	7	322	104	+3	+4	-7	+2	+14	1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	623	571	155	24	5	11	43	117	4	28	6	271	327	389	716	117	321	19	7	319	102	+2	+3	-8	+2	+13	1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	611	560	150	23	5	10	42	116	4	25	5	268	323	380	704	112	319	19	7	316	100	-0	+3	-8	+2	+13	1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	596	546	145	22	5	10	41	115	4	21	4	266	321	379	701	114	315	19	7	310	96	-3	+3	-9	+2	+13	0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	577	528	137	21	4	9	40	114	4	17	3	259	316	366	682	106	312	20	7	305	92	-5	+2	-9	+2	+13	0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	PHI	92%	547	502	128	19	4	8	37	111	3	13	3	255	310	357	667	102	309	20	7	298	88	-8	+1	-10	+2	+12	-0.3
2038	34	MLB MLE	PHI	88%	499	459	114	16	4	6	34	104	3	8	2	248	304	340	644	92	304	21	7	289	82	-11	+1	-10	+2	+11	-0.7
2027	23	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	502	462	125	20	4	7	32	95	3	26	5	271	322	377	699	106	325	19	6	310	97	-2	+3	-5	+2	+11	0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	543	499	138	22	5	9	35	101	4	28	6	277	329	395	724	118	326	19	6	317	101	+1	+3	-5	+2	+12	1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	586	538	150	24	5	11	39	108	4	30	6	279	332	403	736	125	326	18	7	321	104	+2	+4	-6	+2	+13	1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	596	547	153	24	5	12	40	109	4	31	6	280	333	408	741	128	327	18	7	323	105	+3	+4	-6	+2	+13	1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	592	543	152	24	5	12	40	109	4	31	6	280	334	409	743	129	327	18	7	323	105	+4	+4	-6	+2	+13	1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	584	535	148	23	5	11	40	108	4	29	6	277	332	400	732	123	326	18	7	322	104	+3	+3	-6	+2	+13	1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	573	524	145	23	5	11	40	108	4	26	5	277	333	403	735	126	324	19	7	319	102	+2	+3	-7	+2	+12	1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	562	514	139	22	4	10	39	107	4	23	5	270	327	387	714	117	321	19	7	315	100	-0	+3	-7	+2	+12	0.9
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	548	502	134	21	4	10	38	106	3	20	4	267	322	384	707	118	318	19	7	310	96	-2	+2	-8	+2	+12	0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	531	486	128	19	4	9	37	105	3	16	3	263	319	374	694	111	315	20	7	304	92	-5	+2	-8	+2	+12	0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	PHI	92%	503	461	119	17	4	8	34	102	3	12	2	258	313	364	678	106	311	20	7	297	88	-7	+2	-9	+2	+11	-0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	PHI	88%	437	402	100	14	3	6	30	91	2	7	1	249	304	343	647	95	306	21	7	288	82	-10	+1	-9	+2	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6566	6021	1633	253	53	116	445	1251	42	279	55	271	326	389	714	117	324	19	7	313	99	-12	+34	-82	+23	+142	10.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	161	25	5	11	44	124	4	28	5	270	324	384	708	114	323	19	7	313	99	-1	+3	-8	+2	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8620	7919	2153	333	72	132	571	1709	55	445	94	272	325	382	707	110	330	20	7	314	99	-13	+35	-90	+26	+155	11.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	162	25	5	10	43	129	4	34	7	271	324	380	704	109	330	20	7	314	99	-1	+3	-8	+2	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Coco Crisplast yr '16 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,627 PA	10.0	6,627	130	309	265	327	402	+4	+51	30.8	28.0
/162	664	13	31	+0.4	+5.1	3.1	pk7: 25
#2B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#3Denard Spanlast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,956 PA	9.0	5,956	71	185	281	347	398	+8	-3	26.3	24.1
/162	664	8	21	+0.9	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 22
#4Whit Merrifieldlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,866 PA	7.3	4,866	94	218	280	328	413	+14	+7	22.2	21.6
/162	664	13	30	+1.9	+0.9	3.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	11.0	7,335	115	317	269	319	380	+13	-29	24.4	20.6
/162	664	10	29	+1.2	-2.7	2.2	pk7: 17
#5Ángel Pagánlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,465 PA	6.7	4,465	64	176	280	330	408	+4	-6	17.3	16.9
/162	664	10	26	+0.6	-0.9	2.6	pk7: 17
#6Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	5.9	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
/162	664	17	40	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Crawford (OGILVIE)	22	44→55	32→40	70→71	37	264/315/359	95	323	4	18	19%	6%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Micah Johnson 2014 · AA	23	53→59	40→45	63→60	43	249/298/351	102	329	6	35	25%	6%	83	+0.1	256/301/349	93	330	5	28	23%	6%	84	+0.1	254/299/339	85	328	5	27	23%	6%	77	-0.3
●Michael Bourn 2007 · AAA	24	52→62	39→45	64→65	45	246/299/335	89	318	5	31	24%	7%	80	-0.2	249/308/338	89	318	5	43	22%	8%	84	+0.1	276/338/379	103	351	5	38	21%	8%	102	+1.6
✕Dalton Pompey 2015 · MLB	22	52→58	42→45	62→55	47	246/307/360	113	325	7	27	25%	8%	89	+0.5	246/303/340	94	313	7	24	22%	7%	83	+0.1	248/306/335	87	314	7	25	22%	7%	81	-0.0
●Elvis Andrus 2010 · MLB	21	54→61	39→50	60	47	255/310/343	88	307	6	34	19%	7%	86	+0.3	263/329/334	71	306	3	28	14%	8%	91	+0.7	277/330/414	137	310	11	19	14%	7%	105	+1.6
✕Desmond Jennings 2011 · MLB	24	53→59	41→50	65→60	50	253/314/365	112	298	6	37	17%	7%	93	+0.8	245/318/389	144	295	13	29	20%	9%	101	+1.4	243/323/397	154	290	15	28	21%	9%	102	+1.5
●Mallex Smith 2016 · AAA	23	56→62	38→45	65	47	264/321/348	84	337	4	46	22%	7%	91	+0.7	261/320/361	100	335	5	40	22%	8%	94	+0.9	265/331/371	106	338	4	43	21%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2014 · AAA	23	52→57	39→40	60→55	47	246/302/340	94	315	5	27	22%	7%	82	+0.0	206/263/281	75	293	5	20	29%	7%	55	-2.0	193/250/256	63	281	5	20	31%	6%	41	-1.5
●Carl Crawford 2004 · MLB	22	56→65	39→55	64→65	44	269/300/362	93	310	6	38	16%	4%	86	+0.3	289/325/436	147	320	11	44	13%	5%	113	+2.3	302/341/465	163	337	13	47	14%	5%	122	+3.2
✕Ben Revere 2009 · A	21	62→64	38→40	63→65	46	295/335/391	96	336	2	29	13%	5%	105	+1.7	279/324/342	63	314	2	32	11%	5%	91	+0.6	300/329/358	58	330	1	38	9%	4%	93	+0.7
●Garin Cecchini 2013 · A	22	53→63	39→45	59→55	45	250/306/346	96	325	5	27	24%	7%	85	+0.2	248/313/347	99	326	6	16	24%	8%	88	+0.5	238/304/329	91	314	6	13	24%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Peter Bourjos 2010 · AA	23	51→55	42→50	62→60	43	245/288/362	117	303	7	28	22%	5%	82	-0.0	246/294/386	140	303	12	24	22%	5%	91	+0.6	249/309/385	136	316	11	18	24%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	46→54	43→50	61→55	45	223/282/346	122	298	9	28	27%	7%	77	-0.3	240/293/371	131	287	13	16	20%	7%	87	+0.4	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
●Andrés Giménez 2021 · MLB	22	48→58	43→50	55	40	232/288/349	117	295	9	26	24%	5%	80	-0.1	254/316/403	149	311	16	23	23%	5%	103	+1.6	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	51→59	41→45	60→65	48	243/300/344	101	291	7	34	19%	7%	83	+0.1	219/278/329	110	265	10	36	20%	7%	72	-0.7	224/301/331	107	277	8	25	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Kyle Wren 2014 · A	23	55→61	41→40	62→60	46	265/305/372	107	306	6	32	16%	5%	91	+0.6	255/299/320	65	315	2	30	18%	6%	76	-0.4	250/309/325	75	320	3	25	21%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Ryan Brett 2014 · AA	22	52→57	41→45	59→60	45	249/294/357	108	298	8	27	19%	5%	83	+0.1	241/278/343	102	295	8	18	20%	4%	74	-0.5	231/263/324	93	289	7	15	22%	3%	61	-0.8
●Ender Inciarte 2015 · MLB	24	54→63	38→45	58→60	47	258/297/339	81	292	5	28	14%	5%	80	-0.2	283/328/381	98	317	7	20	12%	6%	101	+1.4	294/343/394	100	328	7	19	12%	6%	106	+1.8
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	51→58	41→50	57→60	48	245/302/348	103	308	7	27	22%	8%	84	+0.2	253/310/363	110	308	8	26	19%	8%	91	+0.6	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Grégor Blanco 2006 · AA	22	49→59	41→45	58→60	48	229/304/338	110	332	7	22	31%	10%	83	+0.1	255/331/329	74	335	3	21	22%	10%	91	+0.7	272/348/379	107	328	6	19	17%	10%	103	+1.1
✕Rey Fuentes 2014 · MLB	23	52→62	39→40	57→60	43	245/300/333	87	331	6	29	27%	6%	80	-0.1	256/303/345	89	333	7	29	24%	6%	84	+0.1	258/302/336	78	335	5	31	23%	5%	79	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps