Justin Crawford — OGILVIE

Justin CrawfordCF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 22 L/R 6'2" / 188 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION287 act + 191 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .317 / .363

PA191

HR2

SB11

K%21

BB%6

BABIP335

ISO96

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT55

xwOBA

260.280

POWER40

Barrel%

101.0

Avg EV

2086.8

Bat Spd

2268.4

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED71

Sprint

9029.5

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$19M	+$18M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.1	$20M	+$15M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.2	$19M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+3.2	$18M	+$7M
Totals		$39M		$96M	+$71M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	—	66	60	11	0	1	0	5	21	1	10	4	183	258	217	474	33	282	32	8	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	—	66	58	14	0	1	0	7	15	1	10	4	241	333	276	609	34	326	23	11	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	390	357	111	20	6	3	24	94	4	47	8	311	361	426	787	115	411	24	6	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	390	349	116	22	8	3	32	69	4	47	8	332	395	467	862	135	404	18	8	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	497	467	128	21	4	8	22	122	3	42	9	274	311	388	699	113	354	25	4	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	2 teams	—	497	457	143	25	4	9	32	93	3	42	9	313	362	444	806	131	375	19	6	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	463	149	20	5	7	35	110	1	46	11	322	371	432	803	110	408	22	7	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	440	147	23	4	7	58	91	1	46	11	334	413	452	865	118	407	18	11	383	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	MLB	PHI	—	287	266	70	12	3	2	17	59	2	12	3	263	312	353	666	90	332	21	6	295	84	-5	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.3
YTD	22	MLB	PHI	—	287	266	70	12	3	2	17	59	2	12	3	263	312	353	666	90	332	21	6	299	87	-4	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.4
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	100%	191	176	47	7	2	2	12	41	1	11	2	267	317	363	680	96	333	21	6	308	94	-1	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	100%	191	176	48	8	2	2	12	41	1	11	2	273	323	375	698	102	335	21	6	305	92	-2	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.6
FULL	22	MLB	PHI	—	478	442	118	20	5	4	29	100	3	23	5	267	316	362	678	95	336	21	6	299	87	-7	+3	-2	+2	+14	0.9
TOT	22	MLB	PHI	—	478	442	117	19	5	4	29	100	3	23	5	265	314	357	671	93	333	21	6	300	88	-6	+3	-2	+2	+14	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	PHI	92%	636	586	159	25	6	9	41	135	4	37	7	271	323	381	704	109	333	21	6	312	97	-2	+5	-1	+2	+18	2.2
2028	24	MLB	PHI	92%	648	597	163	25	6	11	42	136	4	38	7	273	325	390	715	117	334	21	6	318	101	+1	+5	-1	+2	+18	2.6
2029	25	MLB	PHI	92%	648	596	164	25	6	12	43	135	4	38	7	275	328	398	726	122	334	21	7	321	104	+3	+5	-1	+2	+18	2.9
2030	26	MLB	PHI	92%	648	596	164	25	6	12	43	135	4	38	7	275	328	398	726	122	335	21	7	323	106	+4	+5	-1	+2	+18	3.0
2031	27	MLB	PHI	92%	643	590	163	25	6	12	44	134	4	38	7	276	331	400	731	124	334	21	7	323	106	+4	+5	-1	+2	+18	2.9
2032	28	MLB	PHI	92%	635	582	160	25	5	12	44	133	4	36	7	275	330	397	727	122	334	21	7	322	105	+4	+4	-1	+2	+18	2.7
2033	29	MLB	PHI	92%	623	571	155	24	5	11	43	132	4	32	6	271	327	389	716	117	334	21	7	321	104	+3	+4	-2	+2	+18	2.5
2034	30	MLB	PHI	92%	611	560	152	23	5	11	42	131	4	29	6	271	327	389	716	118	333	21	7	318	102	+1	+3	-3	+2	+17	2.2
2035	31	MLB	PHI	92%	596	546	146	22	5	10	41	130	4	24	5	267	323	381	704	114	331	22	7	314	99	-1	+3	-3	+2	+17	1.8
2036	32	MLB	PHI	92%	577	529	140	21	5	9	40	128	3	19	4	265	320	374	694	110	328	22	7	308	94	-4	+2	-4	+2	+16	1.3
2037	33	MLB	PHI	92%	547	501	129	18	4	8	38	124	3	14	3	257	314	357	671	100	325	23	7	302	89	-7	+2	-5	+2	+15	0.8
2027	23	MLB	PHI	92%	585	539	147	23	5	9	37	125	4	34	7	273	324	384	708	111	335	21	6	309	95	-3	+4	-1	+2	+17	1.9
2028	24	MLB	PHI	92%	596	548	151	24	5	10	39	125	4	35	7	276	328	392	721	117	336	21	7	315	99	-0	+4	-1	+2	+17	2.3
2029	25	MLB	PHI	92%	596	548	152	24	5	11	39	124	4	35	7	277	330	400	730	122	337	21	7	319	102	+1	+4	-1	+2	+17	2.5
2030	26	MLB	PHI	92%	596	547	152	24	5	11	40	124	4	35	7	278	332	400	732	122	337	21	7	321	104	+2	+4	-1	+2	+17	2.6
2031	27	MLB	PHI	92%	592	543	150	23	5	11	40	123	4	35	7	276	330	398	728	122	337	21	7	321	104	+2	+4	-1	+2	+17	2.6
2032	28	MLB	PHI	92%	584	535	148	23	5	11	40	123	4	33	6	277	332	400	732	123	336	21	7	320	103	+2	+4	-1	+2	+17	2.4
2033	29	MLB	PHI	92%	573	524	144	22	5	10	40	121	4	30	6	275	331	393	724	118	336	21	7	318	102	+1	+4	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2034	30	MLB	PHI	92%	562	515	141	22	5	10	39	121	3	26	5	274	329	394	723	120	335	22	7	316	100	-0	+3	-2	+2	+16	1.9
2035	31	MLB	PHI	92%	548	502	135	21	4	9	38	119	3	22	4	269	324	380	705	112	333	22	7	312	97	-2	+3	-3	+2	+16	1.6
2036	32	MLB	PHI	92%	531	486	128	19	4	8	37	118	3	18	3	263	319	368	688	105	330	22	7	306	92	-5	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.1
2037	33	MLB	PHI	92%	503	460	119	17	4	7	35	114	3	13	3	259	315	359	674	100	327	23	7	299	87	-7	+1	-4	+2	+14	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6457	5923	1615	250	54	109	436	1378	41	327	64	273	327	388	715	116	337	21	7	314	99	-10	+40	-19	+23	+183	22.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	162	25	5	11	44	139	4	33	6	272	326	386	711	114	336	21	7	314	99	-1	+4	-2	+2	+18	2.2
Career	—			—	8462	7777	2141	326	77	137	559	1841	52	499	100	275	328	390	718	115	343	22	7	318	101	+12	+60	-21	+30	+240	32.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	165	25	6	11	43	141	4	38	8	276	329	394	723	117	344	22	7	318	101	+1	+4	-2	+2	+18	2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	23	21	3	0	0	0	2	9	0	2	1	143	217	143	360		250	39	9	179	-5	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	43	37	11	0	1	0	5	6	1	8	3	297	395	351	747	54	355	14	12	346	123	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	82	73	21	6	2	0	7	16	2	7	1	288	366	425	791	137	368	20	9	354	129	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	308	276	95	16	6	3	25	53	2	40	7	344	403	478	881	134	413	17	8	386	153	+19	+5	—	—	+9	3.3
2024	20	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	180	165	55	11	0	3	11	29	2	15	1	333	382	455	837	121	388	16	6	370	141	+8	+3	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	317	292	88	14	4	6	21	64	1	27	8	301	350	438	789	137	368	20	7	348	124	+9	+2	—	—	+9	2.0
2025	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	506	440	147	23	4	7	58	91	1	46	11	334	413	452	865	118	407	18	11	383	152	+29	+5	—	—	+14	5.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Denard Spanlast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,956 PA	11	5,956	71	185	281	347	398	+8	-3	26.3	24.1
	/162	664	8	21	281	347	398	+0.9	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 22
#3Julio Lugolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,290 PA	11	5,290	80	198	270	334	386	+31	+25	23.8	23.1
	/162	664	10	25	270	334	386	+3.9	+3.1	3.0	pk7: 22
#4Chone Figginslast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,348 PA	11	5,348	35	339	276	350	363	+16	+13	22.1	22.9
	/162	664	4	42	276	350	363	+2.0	+1.6	2.7	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,904	114	354	271	322	386	+17	-27	25.7	21.7
	/162	664	11	34	271	322	386	+1.7	-2.6	2.5	pk7: 18
#5Whit Merrifieldlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,866 PA	9	4,866	94	218	280	328	413	+14	+7	22.2	21.5
	/162	664	13	30	280	328	413	+1.9	+0.9	3.0	pk7: 21
#6Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Crawford (OGILVIE)	22	44→55	32→40	70→71	37	265/314/357	93	333	4	23	21%	6%	88	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Micah Johnson 2014 · AA	23	52→60	40→45	63→60	44	247/298/348	101	326	6	35	25%	7%	80	+0.4	257/301/351	94	334	6	28	23%	6%	82	+0.5	255/298/342	87	332	5	27	24%	6%	75	+0.0
●Mallex Smith 2016 · AAA	23	56→61	39→45	65	47	261/320/351	89	336	5	46	23%	8%	91	+1.1	259/318/361	102	332	6	40	22%	8%	92	+1.2	262/328/367	105	334	4	43	21%	8%	96	+1.0
●Michael Bourn 2007 · AAA	24	52→62	39→45	64→65	45	244/297/336	92	320	6	31	25%	7%	76	+0.1	248/307/338	90	318	6	43	22%	8%	82	+0.5	274/337/375	101	350	5	38	21%	8%	101	+2.0
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	55→59	45→50	63→60	51	268/330/405	136	307	11	34	16%	8%	109	+2.4	247/316/380	133	296	12	33	19%	8%	97	+1.5	245/325/405	160	290	16	28	20%	9%	105	+2.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2015 · MLB	22	52→59	41→45	62→55	46	245/305/357	112	325	7	27	26%	8%	86	+0.8	246/301/342	96	317	7	24	23%	7%	80	+0.4	249/306/339	90	319	7	25	23%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Delino DeShields 2015 · AA	22	47→55	42→45	62→65	45	225/295/333	109	304	9	41	28%	8%	77	+0.1	235/310/338	103	316	7	32	26%	9%	84	+0.6	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
●Dee Strange-Gordon 2010 · A	22	55→65	37→40	60→65	42	257/297/336	79	317	3	30	20%	4%	76	+0.1	254/291/320	66	313	2	40	18%	4%	69	-0.4	313/345/388	75	364	3	52	14%	4%	106	+2.1
●Carl Crawford 2004 · MLB	22	56→65	39→55	64→65	44	269/300/362	93	310	6	38	16%	4%	84	+0.6	289/325/436	147	320	11	44	13%	5%	115	+2.7	302/341/465	163	337	13	47	14%	5%	125	+3.8
●Elvis Andrus 2010 · MLB	21	53→61	39→50	60	47	254/309/343	89	307	6	34	19%	7%	84	+0.6	263/329/336	73	306	4	28	14%	8%	90	+1.0	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	51→58	41→45	60→65	48	243/301/349	105	291	8	34	19%	7%	82	+0.5	223/280/337	114	267	11	36	20%	7%	71	-0.3	214/288/314	100	265	7	24	21%	8%	64	-0.3
●Peter Bourjos 2010 · AA	23	51→56	42→50	62→60	42	245/287/363	119	304	8	28	22%	5%	79	+0.3	243/292/385	142	299	12	24	22%	5%	88	+0.9	250/310/389	140	318	12	18	24%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Roman Quinn 2016 · AA	23	52→53	42→45	59→65	44	248/302/351	103	319	9	34	24%	6%	83	+0.6	240/294/342	102	333	7	35	28%	6%	77	+0.1	244/301/381	137	331	12	48	28%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Everth Cabrera 2010 · MLB	23	53→60	39→40	61→65	49	248/318/348	100	319	5	34	22%	8%	89	+1.0	240/306/326	86	315	4	37	23%	8%	79	+0.3	262/328/346	84	335	4	54	21%	8%	89	+0.7
●Garin Cecchini 2013 · A	22	54→62	39→45	59→55	44	253/306/345	92	329	5	27	24%	6%	83	+0.6	249/313/349	100	330	6	16	24%	8%	88	+0.9	240/305/335	95	320	7	13	25%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2014 · AAA	23	52→60	39→40	60→55	46	244/301/338	94	314	5	27	23%	7%	79	+0.3	208/263/285	77	291	6	20	29%	7%	50	-1.7	197/253/264	66	281	5	20	30%	6%	37	-1.3
✕Ben Revere 2009 · A	21	62→64	38→40	63→65	46	295/335/391	96	336	2	29	13%	5%	106	+2.2	277/322/341	64	312	2	32	11%	5%	88	+0.9	298/328/356	58	329	1	38	9%	4%	91	+1.0
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	47→54	44→50	61→55	44	226/282/354	129	300	9	28	27%	7%	76	+0.1	240/293/376	136	286	14	16	21%	7%	86	+0.8	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Ryan Brett 2014 · AA	22	52→58	42→45	59→60	44	249/294/358	109	301	8	27	20%	5%	82	+0.5	242/279/345	103	296	8	18	20%	4%	72	-0.2	230/262/326	96	287	8	15	22%	3%	57	-0.7
●Andrés Giménez 2021 · MLB	22	48→58	44→50	55	41	232/289/356	123	295	10	26	24%	5%	80	+0.4	257/318/409	152	314	16	23	23%	5%	106	+2.2	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
✕Kyle Wren 2014 · A	23	56→58	41→40	62→60	45	266/304/375	109	307	7	32	16%	5%	90	+1.0	249/294/314	65	311	2	30	19%	6%	69	-0.4	242/299/313	71	312	3	25	22%	7%	69	-0.3