Justin Crawford

CF Philadelphia Phillies
Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 188 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420AA/A+PHI497.313/.362/.44494296—.287/.323/.403
202521AAAPHI506.334/.413/.452746126—.331/.385/.438
202622MLBPHI465.264/.312/.353317850.3
2027PROJ23MLBPHI506.260/.314/.354531880.5
2028PROJ92% MLB24MLBPHI437.264/.318/.369527930.7
2029PROJ92% MLB25MLBPHI486.266/.321/.378730960.9
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$9M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2026
Speed90
xwOBA29
Avg EV24
Bat Spd22
Barrel%10
Form.256/.302/.354 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .259/.311/.352
CompsMichael Bourn (age 25) · Mallex Smith (age 24) · Micah Johnson (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†88
AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .314 / .354
PA506
HR5
SB31
K%18
BB%7
BABIP312
ISO97
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +6.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+6RUNFLD: -5.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-5FLDPOS: +1.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +11.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+11REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.81.60.90.70.91.01.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
570.257
POWER
Barrel%
102.0
Avg EV
2487.1
Bat Spd
2268.4
SPEED
Sprint
9029.6
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%19%▼20% over 69 PA (60d) · proj 18%
BB%6%▼4% over 69 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.098·.109 over 64 AB (60d) · proj .094
HR/BB1.4%·2.0% over 51 BBE (60d) · proj 1.1%
BABIP.311·.300 over 50 BIP (60d) · proj .311
SLASH.256/.302/.354·proj .259/.311/.352
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$4M+$3M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$3M+$2M
2029Arb-1$3M+0.9$3M+$0.3M
2030Arb-2$6M+1.0$6M+$2M
2031Arb-3$9M+1.0$6M+$0.1M
Totals $20M $22M +$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202218 AClearwater Threshers — 2321 3000 290 21 143217143360 250 399 179 -26 — — — — — —
202218 ROKFCL Phillies — 4337 11010 561 83 297395351747 54355 1412 346 63 — — — — — —
202319 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 8273 21620 7162 71 288366425791 137368 209 354 79 — — — — — —
202319 AClearwater Threshers — 308276 951663 25532 407 344403478881 134413 178 386 126 — — — — — —
202420 AAReading Fightin Phils — 180165 551103 11292 151 333382455837 121388 166 370 120 — — — — — —
202420 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 317292 881446 21641 278 301350438789 137368 207 348 83 — — — — — —
202521 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 506440 1472347 58911 4611 334413452865 118407 1811 383 126 — — — — — —
202622 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies — 465425 1121953 27823 174 264312353665 89317 186 294 85 -8 +2 -2 +2 +10 0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 465425 1121953 27823 174 264312353665 89317 186 294 85 -8 +2 -2 +2 +10 0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202218 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 2322 2000 1120 21 9113091221 242 524 130 -26 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 4339 9010 391 83 231302282584 51299 217 262 63 — — — — — —
202319 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 8275 19520 5212 71 253317373690 120336 266 285 79 — — — — — —
202319 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 308283 941462 18712 407 332376445821 113418 236 354 126 — — — — — —
202420 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 180168 551002 8362 151 327365423788 95402 204 345 120 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 317299 791246 14821 278 264299391691 127335 264 291 83 — — — — — —
202521 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 506459 1522156 391101 4611 331385438823 107414 228 354 126 — — — — — —
202622 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 465425 1121953 27823 174 264312353665 89317 186 293 85 -8 +2 -2 +2 +10 0.3
202218 ROK MLE2 teams — 6660 12010 5211 104 200273233506 33308 328 216 32 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAW2 teams — 6658 14010 7151 104 241333276609 34326 2311 288 32 — — — — — —
202319 A MLE2 teams — 390359 1111972 22924 478 309356418774 109407 246 339 116 — — — — — —
202319 A RAW2 teams — 390349 1162283 32694 478 332395467862 135404 188 379 116 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 497467 1342248 221183 429 287323403726 116367 244 311 96 — — — — — —
202420 A+ RAW2 teams — 497457 1432549 32933 429 313362444806 131375 196 356 96 — — — — — —
202521 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 506459 1522156 391101 4611 331385438823 107423 228 354 126 — — — — — —
202521 AAA RAWLehigh Valley IronPigs — 506440 1472347 58911 4611 334413452865 118407 1811 383 126 — — — — — —
202622 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 465425 1121953 27823 174 264312353665 89317 186 293 85 -8 +2 -2 +2 +10 0.3
202622 MLB RAWPhiladelphia Phillies — 465425 1121953 27823 174 264312353665 89317 186 294 85 -8 +2 -2 +2 +10 0.3
202218 ROK MLE2 teams — 6660 12010 5211 104 200273233506 33279 328 216 32 — — — — — —
202319 A MLE2 teams — 390361 1111972 22924 478 307356416771 108401 246 339 116 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 497469 1342248 221183 429 286323401724 115359 244 311 96 — — — — — —
202521 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 506461 1522156 391101 4611 330385436821 106414 228 354 126 — — — — — —
202622 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 465432 1121953 27823 174 259312347659 88317 186 293 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A+ MLE2 teams — 497469 1342248 221183 429 286323401724 115359 244 311 96 — — — — — —
202521 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 506461 1522156 391101 4611 330385436821 106414 228 354 126 — — — — — —
202622 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 465432 1121953 27823 174 259312347659 88317 186 293 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEPHI 100% 572526 1372465 371044 356 259313353666 94311 186 299 88 -8 +5 -6 +2 +12 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXPHI 100% 506464 1212055 33924 315 260314354668 95312 187 300 88 -7 +4 -5 +2 +11 0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEPHI 92% 475438 1152055 31853 295 263317367684 104313 187 306 93 -4 +4 -5 +2 +10 0.7
202925 MLB MLEPHI 92% 528484 1282257 35944 335 265320375695 110313 187 310 96 -2 +5 -5 +2 +11 1.1
203026 MLB MLEPHI 92% 528484 1292258 35944 325 266321380700 114313 187 312 98 -1 +4 -5 +2 +11 1.1
203127 MLB MLEPHI 92% 522478 1262157 35944 315 265320377697 112313 187 311 97 -2 +4 -5 +2 +11 1.0
203228 MLB MLEPHI 92% 512470 1242157 34933 285 263318373691 110312 187 309 95 -3 +4 -6 +2 +11 0.8
203329 MLB MLEPHI 92% 498459 1192056 33923 244 261315367682 106311 187 305 93 -4 +3 -6 +2 +11 0.5
203430 MLB MLEPHI 92% 483445 1141946 32913 203 258312360672 102310 197 301 90 -6 +3 -7 +2 +10 0.2
203531 MLB MLEPHI 92% 466430 1091845 30893 143 254307350658 96307 196 295 86 -8 +2 -7 +2 +10 -0.2
203632 MLB MLEPHI 92% 444411 1031744 28872 92 249301338639 89304 206 287 81 -10 +1 -8 +2 +10 -0.6
202824 MLB CTXPHI 92% 437402 1061845 29783 274 264318369687 105313 187 307 93 -4 +4 -4 +2 +9 0.7
202925 MLB CTXPHI 92% 486448 1192057 32873 305 266321378699 112313 187 312 96 -2 +4 -5 +2 +11 0.9
203026 MLB CTXPHI 92% 486447 1202058 33873 305 267322383705 116313 187 314 98 -1 +4 -5 +2 +11 1.0
203127 MLB CTXPHI 92% 480442 1171957 32863 295 266321381701 115313 187 313 97 -2 +4 -5 +2 +10 1.0
203228 MLB CTXPHI 92% 471433 1141947 32863 264 264319376695 112312 187 310 95 -3 +4 -5 +2 +10 0.8
203329 MLB CTXPHI 92% 458421 1101846 31853 224 262316370686 108311 197 307 93 -4 +3 -6 +2 +10 0.5
203430 MLB CTXPHI 92% 444409 1061746 29843 183 259313363675 103310 197 302 90 -5 +2 -6 +2 +10 0.2
203531 MLB CTXPHI 92% 429396 1011645 28822 132 255308353661 98308 197 296 86 -7 +2 -7 +2 +9 -0.1
203632 MLB CTXPHI 92% 408377 951544 26802 82 250302340642 91304 206 288 81 -9 +1 -7 +1 +9 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 45644200 11001814458 29983728 22038 262315367683 105313 187 305 95 -46 +29 -52 +16 +99 4.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650598 1562668 431194 315 261315365679 104312 187 305 95 -7 +4 -7 +2 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 68866333 17082826978 441133445 41378 270322373695 103329 196 309 95 -56 +35 -61 +19 +118 5.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650598 1622777 421264 397 271323375698 104331 196 309 95 -7 +4 -7 +2 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 506 PAwOBA .375 → .354 (−21)K% 18.0% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.98%÷0.996×1.200——21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.46%÷1.075×0.690—×1.0507.73%
HBP% /PA0.20%—×0.940—×1.0500.20%
Singles /BIP32.38%÷0.986×0.930×1.050×1.05033.68%
Doubles /BIP6.59%÷1.018×0.830×1.050×1.0505.93%
Triples /BIP1.15%÷0.900×0.970×1.050×1.0501.36%
Home runs /BIP2.01%÷0.947×0.700—×1.0501.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .375 → .354; ISO .118 → .108; BABIP .407 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 317 PAwOBA .339 → .291 (−49)K% 20.2% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.19%÷1.023×1.310——25.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.62%÷0.972×0.600—×1.0424.26%
HBP% /PA0.32%—×0.770—×1.0420.25%
Singles /BIP28.07%÷1.035×0.870×1.050×1.04225.81%
Doubles /BIP6.14%÷1.000×0.780×1.050×1.0425.24%
Triples /BIP1.75%÷0.946×0.850×1.050×1.0421.73%
Home runs /BIP2.63%÷0.926×0.880—×1.0422.60%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .339 → .291; ISO .137 → .125; BABIP .368 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 180 PAwOBA .362 → .345 (−18)K% 16.1% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.11%÷0.974×1.220——20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.11%÷1.013×0.700—×1.0504.44%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.850—×1.0500.99%
Singles /BIP30.15%÷0.997×0.970×1.050×1.05032.34%
Doubles /BIP8.09%÷1.022×0.860×1.050×1.0507.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.983×0.950×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.21%÷1.137×0.780—×1.0501.59%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .362 → .345; ISO .121 → .100; BABIP .388 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 308 PAwOBA .378 → .354 (−24)K% 17.2% → 22.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.21%÷1.020×1.360——22.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.79%÷0.972×0.690—×1.0455.78%
HBP% /PA0.65%—×0.780—×1.0450.53%
Singles /BIP31.39%÷0.965×0.920×1.050×1.04532.85%
Doubles /BIP7.17%÷1.002×0.830×1.050×1.0456.52%
Triples /BIP2.69%÷1.056×0.910×1.050×1.0452.54%
Home runs /BIP1.35%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0451.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .378 → .354; ISO .134 → .118; BABIP .413 → .418. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 82 PAwOBA .345 → .285 (−60)K% 19.5% → 25.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.51%÷0.993×1.310——25.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.54%÷0.973×0.600—×1.0505.53%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.770—×1.0501.97%
Singles /BIP22.81%÷1.006×0.870×1.050×1.05021.75%
Doubles /BIP10.53%÷1.034×0.780×1.050×1.0508.75%
Triples /BIP3.51%÷1.071×0.850×1.050×1.0503.07%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.858×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .345 → .285; ISO .137 → .112; BABIP .368 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Phillies · 43 PAwOBA .338 → .262 (−76)K% 14.0% → 20.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.95%÷1.004×1.440——20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.63%÷0.989×0.620—×1.0227.46%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.720—×1.0221.71%
Singles /BIP32.26%÷0.981×0.820—×1.02227.56%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.178×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Triples /BIP3.23%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0222.37%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.947×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .262; ISO .054 → .039; BABIP .355 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 23 PAwOBA .175 → .130 (−45)K% 39.1% → 53.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.13%÷1.000×1.360——53.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0506.30%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.920—×1.05024.15%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0500.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .175 → .130; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).