Dean Livingston

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#216ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX3 levels	18	17	82	3.31	3.46	23.6%	8.2%	—	K 16.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	20	MLBARI	—	—	0	4.97	4.97	18.3%	10.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBARI	10	10	50	4.70	4.62	20.0%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBARI	18	18	91	4.48	4.36	21.7%	9.2%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsWill Sanders (age 22) · Victor Lizarraga (age 20) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%18.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$79M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$8M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$8M	+$6M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$7M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$47M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	2.4%	3.31	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	3.1%	4.97	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	102	432	86	42	13	100%	4.9	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.71	+0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	124	524	114	48	16	100%	5.2	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.45	+1.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	124	524	119	46	15	100%	5.4	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.29	+1.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	124	524	123	45	15	100%	5.6	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+1.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	122	513	122	43	15	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.13	+1.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	122	515	123	43	15	100%	6.1	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+1.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	119	503	121	43	15	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.14	4.15	+1.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	114	480	115	41	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.23	+1.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	448	106	40	14	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.36	+1.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	96	407	95	37	14	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.54	+1.0
2038	31	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	87	366	84	35	13	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.6%	4.62	4.74	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	77	326	73	32	13	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.97	+0.4
2040	33	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	68	288	63	30	12	100%	6.2	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	4.1%	5.06	5.22	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	50	211	42	21	6	100%	5.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.62	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	91	384	83	35	11	100%	5.1	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.36	+1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	105	443	101	39	12	100%	5.2	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+1.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	111	469	110	40	13	100%	5.5	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+1.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	112	473	112	40	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.10	4.04	+1.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	114	481	115	40	13	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	113	477	114	40	13	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.8%	4.05	4.06	+1.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	108	456	109	39	13	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+1.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	101	38	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.19	4.26	+1.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	92	388	90	36	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.2%	4.34	4.44	+0.9
2038	31	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	82	346	79	33	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	73	308	69	31	11	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.85	+0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	60	28	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.93	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		211	211	1216	5133	1184	460	154	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.30	3.93	+21.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	76	25	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.30	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		18	17	82	330	55	33	12	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	808	133	82	29	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 58 IPFIP 4.26 → 5.46 (+1.19)K% 20.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.58%	—	×0.740	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.180	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 14 IPFIP 1.28 → 2.43 (+1.15)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×1.250	9.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.28 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 10 IPFIP 1.22 → 1.92 (+0.70)K% 30.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.770	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.150	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.22 → 1.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dean Livingston (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.47	21.5%	12.3%	351	-0.50	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	88
Victor Lizarraga R 2024 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP	4.18	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.61	15.1%	0.9%	179	+1.43	3.82	494	88
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	88
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	87
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	87
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	87
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	86
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	85
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	85
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	85
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	579	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	105	22.7%	9.1%	1.22	4.45
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*