Shelby Lackey — OGILVIE

Shelby Lackey P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%22.4%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	21	100	459	113	39	13	100%	4.8	18.2%	10.0%	8.2%	2.9%	5.47	4.45	—
2019	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	21	21	100	459	113	39	13	100%	4.8	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	2.8%	5.47	3.70	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	0	19	85	29	8	1	0%	1.0	26.3%	10.8%	15.4%	1.2%	2.79	2.92	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	20	0	19	85	29	8	1	0%	1.0	34.1%	9.4%	24.7%	1.2%	2.79	2.01	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	41	0	46	207	49	30	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	16.7%	1.6%	1.4%	4.93	4.43	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	41	0	46	207	49	30	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	1.4%	4.93	3.78	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	13	82	19	25	1	0%	0.8	16.5%	30.6%	-14.1%	2.1%	11.08	6.75	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	13	82	19	25	1	0%	0.8	16.5%	30.6%	-14.1%	2.1%	11.08	6.75	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	13	82	19	25	1	0%	0.8	23.2%	30.5%	-7.3%	1.2%	11.08	6.95	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.95	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		98	21	178	833	157	115	19	21%	1.8	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	2.3%	5.45	4.51	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	24	200	934	176	129	21	21%	1.8	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	2.3%	5.45	4.51	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shelby Lackey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	22.4%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.95	22.2%	9.6%	20	+0.13	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	75
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	74
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	72
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	70
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	70
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	70
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	70
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	69
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	69
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	69
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	68
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	68