Shelby Lackey
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%23.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP5
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 21 | 21 | 100 | 459 | 113 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 5.47 | 4.18 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 21 | 21 | 100 | 459 | 113 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 5.47 | 3.70 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 20 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 1.0% | 2.79 | 2.82 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 20 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.1% | 9.4% | 24.7% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 2.01 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 41 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 4.93 | 4.28 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 41 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 4.93 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 13 | 82 | 19 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 16.5% | 30.6% | -14.1% | 2.1% | 11.08 | 6.71 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 13 | 82 | 19 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.2% | 30.5% | -7.3% | 1.2% | 11.08 | 6.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.19 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 21 | 178 | 833 | 157 | 115 | 16 | 21% | 1.8 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 5.45 | 4.32 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 24 | 200 | 934 | 176 | 129 | 18 | 21% | 1.8 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 5.45 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shelby Lackey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 22.9% | 12.8% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 73 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 73 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 72 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 71 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 71 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 71 |
| Nick Merkel R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 70 |