Trenton Denholm
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%15.5%
BB%5.3%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 23 | 98 | 432 | 107 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.3% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 4.79 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 23 | 98 | 432 | 107 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 4.79 | 3.20 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 6 | 77 | 316 | 67 | 18 | 4 | 26% | 3.3 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 3.16 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 6 | 77 | 316 | 67 | 18 | 4 | 26% | 3.3 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 15.5% | 1.3% | 3.16 | 2.74 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 603 | 127 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.09 | 4.11 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 603 | 127 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 3.09 | 3.61 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 130 | 547 | 112 | 27 | 14 | 70% | 4.8 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 3.88 | 4.41 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 130 | 547 | 112 | 27 | 14 | 70% | 4.8 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 18 | 9 | 77 | 332 | 78 | 23 | 11 | 50% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.44 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 55 | 19 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.5% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 15.5% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 161 | 688 | 133 | 42 | 22 | — | — | 19.4% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 8 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 15.5% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 88 | 373 | 60 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.1% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 86 | 362 | 60 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.4% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 82 | 345 | 57 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 77 | 325 | 59 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.3% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 72 | 303 | 54 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 66 | 280 | 49 | 18 | 11 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.1% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 54 | 228 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.4% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 60 | 253 | 42 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.77 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 61 | 258 | 47 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.3% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 58 | 245 | 43 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 5.08 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 50 | 339 | 1433 | 246 | 87 | 52 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.39 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 51 | 31 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 83 | 530 | 2230 | 389 | 162 | 64 | 71% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.12 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 31 | 200 | 842 | 147 | 61 | 24 | 71% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trenton Denholm (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 15.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.67 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 256 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.51 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 140 | 86 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 84 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 83 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 82 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 81 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 80 |
| Kris Medlen R 2029 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 80 |
| Randy Bell R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 120 | 80 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Ivan Pineyro R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .356 | 4.38 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 45 | -0.19 | 3.55 | 422 | 80 |
| Ryan Etsell R 2023 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 110 | 79 |
| Mike Augliera R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 114 | 78 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 78 |
| Tyler Wilson R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | .307 | 4.68 | 12.1% | 5.1% | 129 | +0.41 | 3.56 | 377 | 78 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 78 |
| Reed Reilly R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 10.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 101 | 78 |
| Matt Benedict R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.10 | 10.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 130 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 80 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 1.35 | 4.69 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Wade LeBlanc ('21) | 6 | 81 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 1.67 | 4.61 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |