Trenton Denholm — OGILVIE

Trenton Denholm P Columbus Clippers

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%15.5%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	2.4%	4.79	4.24	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	1.9%	4.79	3.20	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	16.3%	6.6%	9.8%	1.5%	3.16	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	16.3%	6.6%	9.8%	1.5%	3.16	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	21.2%	5.7%	15.5%	1.3%	3.16	2.74	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	6.0%	15.1%	2.8%	3.09	3.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	20.5%	4.9%	15.5%	2.6%	3.88	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	18	122	536	120	33	18	64%	4.4	18.6%	5.5%	13.0%	3.7%	4.86	4.26	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	18	122	536	120	33	18	64%	4.4	18.6%	5.5%	13.0%	3.7%	4.86	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CLE	28	18	122	536	120	33	18	64%	4.4	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	3.4%	4.86	3.83	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	5	2	1	100%	7.6	15.5%	5.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	130	568	125	35	19	—	—	22.0%	6.1%	15.9%	3.3%	4.84	4.28	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	136	572	92	32	18	100%	6.5	16.1%	5.6%	10.5%	3.2%	4.55	4.56	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	136	572	94	34	19	100%	6.5	16.4%	5.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	129	546	90	34	18	100%	6.5	16.5%	6.2%	10.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.73	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	122	513	84	34	18	100%	6.4	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	3.6%	4.80	4.90	0.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	113	479	76	33	18	100%	6.3	15.9%	6.9%	8.9%	3.8%	4.98	5.10	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	58	245	40	14	8	100%	6.4	16.1%	5.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.56	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	85	359	59	21	12	100%	6.5	16.4%	5.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.62	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	94	397	65	25	13	100%	6.3	16.5%	6.2%	10.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.73	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	97	410	67	27	15	100%	6.5	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	3.6%	4.80	4.90	0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	96	405	64	28	15	100%	6.4	15.9%	6.9%	8.9%	3.8%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	430	1817	295	115	63	100%	6.4	16.3%	6.3%	9.9%	3.5%	4.73	4.42	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	137	53	29	100%	6.4	16.3%	6.3%	9.9%	3.5%	4.73	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		127	92	575	2434	420	168	72	72%	4.5	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.0%	3.94	4.14	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	846	146	58	25	72%	4.5	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.0%	3.94	4.14	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Denholm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	15.5%	5.3%	3.1%	—	4.64	16.4%	10.4%	400	+0.08	—	—	—
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	86
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	84
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	83
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	83
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	83
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	83
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	82
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	82
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	82
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	81
Ivan Pineyro R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	16.8%	6.2%	3.6%	.356	4.70	13.4%	5.2%	45	+0.22	3.53	422	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	80
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	80
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	79
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	78
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	78
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	78
Reed Reilly R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP-	4.82	10.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	101	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	121	16.2%	6.1%	1.31	4.69
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37