Trenton Denholm — OGILVIE

Trenton Denholm P Columbus Clippers

+1.1 WAR

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.6%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%11.8%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†4545

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	22	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	4.79	4.23	+1.2
2023	23	A+	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	16.3%	6.6%	1.5%	3.16	3.38	+1.5
2024	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	16.4%	6.8%	3.0%	3.09	4.23	+1.8
2025	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	16.6%	5.4%	3.3%	3.88	4.22	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	3	3	15	65	16	4	2	21.7%	6.5%	3.4%	6.00	3.95	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	22	22	120	507	94	34	16	18.6%	6.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.47	+1.1
2026 Total	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	135	572	110	38	18	19.2%	6.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.41	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CLE	22	22	123	520	98	36	16	18.9%	6.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.46	+1.2
2028	28	MLB	CLE	22	22	123	521	99	37	16	19.1%	7.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.47	+1.2
2029	29	MLB	CLE	22	22	120	509	97	36	16	19.1%	7.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.50	+1.1
2030	30	MLB	CLE	21	21	117	494	94	36	16	19.0%	7.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.56	+1.0
2031	31	MLB	CLE	21	21	113	476	89	35	16	18.8%	7.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.63	+0.9
2032	32	MLB	CLE	20	20	108	457	85	34	15	18.5%	7.5%	3.4%	4.67	4.72	+0.7
2033	33	MLB	CLE	19	19	103	437	79	34	15	18.2%	7.7%	3.5%	4.76	4.82	+0.6
2034	34	MLB	CLE	18	18	98	415	74	33	15	17.8%	7.9%	3.6%	4.86	4.93	+0.4
2035	35	MLB	CLE	17	17	93	391	68	32	14	17.4%	8.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.05	+0.2
2036	36	MLB	CLE	16	16	87	366	62	31	14	17.0%	8.4%	3.8%	5.10	5.18	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			102	77	468	1963	335	142	54	17.1%	7.3%	2.7%	3.77	4.08	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—			44	33	200	839	143	61	23	17.1%	7.3%	2.7%	3.77	4.08	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Denholm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.6%	6.8%	3.1%	—	4.48	19.1%	12.0%	367	+0.01	—	—	—
Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	92
Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	90
David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	27	SP-	4.26	16.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.343	4.14	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.12	3.32	493	89
Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	26	SP-	3.29	19.3%	5.9%	1.9%	.309	2.86	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.43	2.61	530	89
Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	88
Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	87
Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP-	4.69	16.3%	7.2%	3.8%	.290	3.66	18.0%	9.7%	57	-1.03	2.39	396	87
David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP-	3.95	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.78	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.17	2.49	373	87
Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	26	SP-	4.28	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	270	86
Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	86
Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	86
Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	27	SP-	3.55	20.2%	6.3%	2.5%	.306	5.15	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.60	3.55	244	85
Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP-	5.10	16.1%	8.2%	4.2%	.263	4.13	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.97	3.03	406	85
Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP-	4.34	14.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.89	3.45	274	85
Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	13.0%	6.6%	3.1%	.309	3.56	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.98	2.84	484	85
Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	85
Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	85
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	18.2%	6.2%	2.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	229	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	84
Shawn Haviland R 2029 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.69	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.74	3.69	283	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.6	$3M	-$0.0M
Totals		$10M		$39M	+$30M