Trenton Denholm

P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#633ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	26	26	148	3.09	3.61	21.1%	6.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.27
2025	25	MIX2 levels	27	19	130	3.88	3.40	20.5%	4.9%	—	K 16.6% · BB 5.4% · FIP 4.25
2026	26	AAACLE	29	18	129	4.59	3.73	22.6%	5.9%	—	K 19.4% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	1	1	9	4.43	4.43	17.5%	4.9%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCLE	5	5	35	4.47	4.50	17.8%	5.3%	0.4
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCLE	7	7	43	4.55	4.61	17.9%	5.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control65Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsRyan Watson (age 25) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Patrick Johnson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%17.5%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	2.4%	4.79	4.24	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	1.9%	4.79	3.20	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	16.3%	6.6%	9.8%	1.5%	3.16	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	21.2%	5.7%	15.5%	1.3%	3.16	2.74	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	6.0%	15.1%	2.8%	3.09	3.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	20.5%	4.9%	15.5%	2.6%	3.88	3.40	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	19.4%	5.3%	14.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.08	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	19.4%	5.3%	14.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.08	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.59	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	1	1	9	38	7	2	1	100%	9.0	17.5%	4.9%	12.6%	3.3%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	81	343	61	18	12	100%	6.2	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	73	308	55	18	11	100%	6.6	17.9%	5.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.55	4.61	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	66	277	49	17	10	100%	6.6	17.8%	6.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.67	4.77	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	64	272	53	16	11	100%	6.4	19.5%	5.7%	13.7%	3.9%	4.68	4.69	+0.5
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	56	237	45	14	10	100%	6.2	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.1%	4.82	4.91	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	35	148	26	8	5	100%	7.0	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	43	182	32	10	6	100%	6.1	17.9%	5.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.55	4.61	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	46	194	34	12	7	100%	6.6	17.8%	6.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.76	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	50	211	41	12	8	100%	6.2	19.5%	5.7%	13.7%	3.9%	4.67	4.68	+0.4
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	47	198	38	12	8	100%	6.7	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.1%	4.81	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	221	933	172	54	35	100%	6.5	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.32	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	156	49	32	100%	6.4	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		128	92	582	2456	429	168	72	72%	4.5	17.5%	6.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.89	4.10	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	844	147	58	25	72%	4.5	17.5%	6.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.89	4.10	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 129 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.08 (+0.37)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.860	19.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×0.900	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 127 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.25 (+0.82)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.49%	—	×0.810	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.89%	—	×1.100	5.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.926	×1.200	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 107 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.22 (+0.61)K% 21.5% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.49%	—	×0.770	16.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.150	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.190	×1.250	3.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 42 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.39 (+0.74)K% 19.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.88%	—	×0.810	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.100	7.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷0.966	×1.200	3.09%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 77 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.37 (+0.64)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.770	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.70%	—	×1.150	6.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.060	×1.250	1.49%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALynchburg Hillcats · 98 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.24 (+1.04)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.77%	—	×0.740	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.180	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.015	×1.300	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Denholm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	17.5%	4.9%	3.3%	—	4.62	17.8%	12.1%	220	+0.19	—	—	—
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	84
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	79
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	79
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	76
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	76
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	76
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	75
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	75
Joe Gunkel R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	27	SP-	4.06	14.7%	4.3%	3.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	601	75
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	73
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	73
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	72	18.1%	5.6%	1.39	4.58
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03