Micah Ottenbreit

Micah Ottenbreit P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%18.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	5	0	6	25	4	3	0	0%	1.2	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.27	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	5	0	6	25	4	3	0	0%	1.2	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.27	—
2022	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	2	6	28	4	5	1	100%	2.8	14.3%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	7.94	6.12	—
2022	19	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	2	2	6	28	4	5	1	100%	2.8	14.3%	17.9%	-3.6%	3.6%	7.94	6.63	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	2	2	13	0	2	0	100%	1.2	0.0%	15.4%	-15.4%	0.0%	11.57	5.05	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	2	2	13	0	2	0	100%	1.2	0.0%	15.4%	-15.4%	0.0%	11.57	5.05	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	2	2	2	13	0	2	0	100%	1.2	0.0%	15.4%	-15.4%	0.0%	11.57	5.67	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	19	94	410	99	41	8	100%	4.9	17.9%	11.8%	6.1%	2.3%	4.88	4.33	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	19	94	410	99	41	8	100%	4.9	17.9%	11.8%	6.1%	2.3%	4.88	4.33	—
2024	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	19	19	94	410	99	41	8	100%	4.9	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	2.0%	4.88	3.41	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	6	6	24	105	20	4	1	100%	4.1	14.7%	4.4%	10.3%	1.1%	4.81	3.04	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	6	6	24	105	20	4	1	100%	4.1	14.7%	4.4%	10.3%	1.1%	4.81	3.04	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	6	6	24	105	20	4	1	100%	4.1	19.0%	3.8%	15.2%	1.0%	4.81	2.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	0	33	150	38	17	1	0%	1.6	20.9%	14.5%	6.4%	1.2%	4.86	3.84	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	0	33	150	38	17	1	0%	1.6	20.9%	14.5%	6.4%	1.2%	4.86	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	PHI	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	4.50	-0.07	—
2026	23	A RAW	PHI	5	0	9	39	7	4	0	0%	1.8	17.9%	10.3%	7.7%	0.0%	4.00	2.88	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	PHI	14	0	22	103	28	13	1	0%	1.6	27.2%	12.6%	14.6%	1.0%	5.24	2.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	83	0	87	366	72	32	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.8%	4.52	4.46	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	84	0	88	371	76	32	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	84	0	88	371	77	31	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.36	4.33	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	82	0	86	365	76	31	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.37	4.37	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	80	0	84	354	73	31	10	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.45	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	76	0	80	338	69	30	10	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	72	0	75	318	70	27	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.49	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	PHI	67	0	70	296	64	26	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	PHI	62	0	65	274	58	25	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.8%	4.80	4.92	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	35	0	37	156	31	14	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.57	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	55	0	58	245	50	21	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.48	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	67	0	70	296	61	25	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.47	4.44	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	70	0	74	312	65	27	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	71	0	75	317	65	27	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.7%	12.0%	3.2%	4.54	4.57	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	70	0	73	308	63	27	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.3%	4.64	4.70	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	66	0	69	291	64	24	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.5%	4.63	4.62	+0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	59	24	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.9%	3.8%	4.76	4.83	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	PHI	58	0	61	258	55	24	10	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	4.0%	4.95	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		554	0	582	2457	513	213	82	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.62	4.26	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	73	28	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.62	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		55	29	166	731	128	85	13	53%	3.0	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	1.8%	5.05	4.09	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	882	155	102	16	53%	3.0	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	1.8%	5.05	4.09	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Micah Ottenbreit (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	18.2%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.39	20.2%	11.6%	262	-0.26	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	88
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	83
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	83
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	82
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	81
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	80
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	80
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	79
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	75	20.7%	8.7%	1.18	4.50
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98