Victor Lizarraga
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.9 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.57
FIP5.57
K%16.7%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%2.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 11 | 30 | 130 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 2.7 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.10 | 6.34 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 11 | 30 | 130 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 2.7 | 26.9% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 4.43 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 20 | 19 | 94 | 408 | 95 | 34 | 5 | 95% | 4.7 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.43 | 3.89 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 20 | 19 | 94 | 408 | 95 | 34 | 5 | 95% | 4.7 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 2.86 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 21 | 21 | 95 | 406 | 78 | 34 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 4.09 | 4.29 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 21 | 21 | 95 | 406 | 78 | 34 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 1.2% | 4.09 | 3.22 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 21 | 21 | 96 | 407 | 102 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 21 | 21 | 96 | 407 | 102 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.1% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 101 | 462 | 92 | 60 | 10 | 93% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.77 | 5.22 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 101 | 462 | 92 | 60 | 10 | 93% | 3.8 | 19.9% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 5.77 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 17 | 15 | 68 | 324 | 54 | 48 | 8 | 88% | 4.0 | 13.5% | 16.3% | -2.8% | 3.0% | 6.35 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 133 | 598 | 100 | 88 | 16 | — | — | 16.7% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.97 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 68 | 285 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.2% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 56 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 46 | 265 | 1117 | 219 | 135 | 33 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.58 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 102 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 112 | 484 | 2137 | 358 | 262 | 58 | 96% | 4.1 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 46 | 200 | 882 | 148 | 108 | 24 | 96% | 4.1 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Lizarraga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.57 | 16.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.04 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 207 | -0.53 | — | — | — |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 90 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 90 |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 89 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 88 |
| Steven Brooks R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.61 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 40 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 103 | 87 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.99 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 4.4% | .282 | 4.74 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 184 | -1.25 | 3.40 | 322 | 86 |
| Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.8% | .319 | 4.54 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 165 | 86 |
| Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 86 |
| Hayden Merda R 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 86 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 85 |
| Evan Johnson R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.41 | 15.3% | 14.2% | 1.5% | .287 | 4.38 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 65 | -0.03 | 4.32 | 103 | 85 |
| Michael YaSenka R 2027 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.84 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .288 | 5.74 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | -0.10 | 5.74 | 154 | 85 |
| Max Bain R 2027 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.37 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.8% | .291 | 6.65 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.28 | 5.16 | 174 | 84 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.49 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | .293 | 5.36 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 88 | -0.13 | 5.03 | 185 | 84 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.55 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 59 | +0.96 | 4.59 | 138 | 83 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 83 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 83 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 83 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 18.9% | 19.3% | 2.3% | .265 | 4.94 | 19.9% | 3.0% | 116 | -0.28 | 3.51 | 278 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 68 | 19.0% | 12.6% | 1.13 | 5.12 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |