Victor Lizarraga

P San Antonio Missions

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AASD	21	21	96	4.03	3.37	25.1%	10.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.18
2025	21	MIX2 levels	27	25	101	5.77	4.34	19.9%	13.0%	—	K 16.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.13
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	20	90	7.57	5.55	17.4%	12.6%	—	K 13.4% · BB 14.3% · FIP 6.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBSD	1	1	1	6.11	6.11	14.1%	15.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBSD	5	5	29	5.78	5.69	16.0%	13.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBSD	7	7	40	5.53	5.44	17.1%	12.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsReid Schaller (age 22) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25) · Hayden Merda (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%14.1%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%-1.6%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	5.4%	5.10	6.34	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	3.8%	5.10	4.43	—
2022	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	17.2%	9.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.43	3.82	—
2022	18	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	1.2%	3.43	2.86	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	1.8%	4.09	4.07	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	1.2%	4.09	3.22	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	25.1%	10.3%	14.7%	2.0%	4.03	3.37	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	19.9%	13.0%	6.9%	2.2%	5.77	4.34	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	13.4%	14.3%	-0.9%	4.2%	7.57	6.11	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	13.4%	14.3%	-0.9%	4.2%	7.57	6.11	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	3.7%	7.57	5.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	14.1%	15.7%	-1.6%	3.3%	6.11	6.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	67	284	45	40	9	100%	5.6	16.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.3%	5.78	5.69	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	60	252	43	32	8	100%	6.0	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.2%	5.53	5.44	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	244	43	31	8	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.6%	5.1%	3.2%	5.40	5.35	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	56	237	42	30	8	100%	6.2	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.36	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	53	225	40	29	8	100%	5.9	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	3.4%	5.41	5.44	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	50	211	37	27	7	100%	6.2	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	46	193	33	25	7	100%	5.7	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.75	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	29	122	20	17	4	100%	5.8	16.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.3%	5.78	5.69	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	40	169	29	22	5	100%	5.7	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.2%	5.53	5.44	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	46	194	34	24	6	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.6%	5.1%	3.2%	5.40	5.35	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	48	203	36	25	7	100%	6.0	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.36	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	48	203	36	26	7	100%	6.0	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	3.4%	5.41	5.44	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	45	190	33	24	7	100%	5.6	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	42	177	30	23	7	100%	6.0	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.75	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	299	1261	219	162	43	100%	6.0	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	3.4%	5.50	5.12	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	147	108	29	100%	5.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	3.4%	5.50	5.12	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		123	117	507	2249	373	272	64	95%	4.1	16.6%	12.1%	4.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.79	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	888	147	107	25	95%	4.1	16.6%	12.1%	4.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.79	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 87 IPFIP 5.29 → 6.11 (+0.82)K% 16.5% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.51%	—	×0.810	13.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.97%	—	×1.100	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.29 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 91 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.13 (+0.84)K% 20.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.76%	—	×0.810	16.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.89%	—	×1.100	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷0.950	×1.200	3.01%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 10 IPFIP 3.89 → 3.85 (−0.04)K% 11.6% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.63%	—	×0.860	10.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×0.900	12.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.981	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 96 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.18 (+0.81)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.06%	—	×0.810	20.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.100	11.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.953	×1.200	2.47%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 95 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.07 (+0.85)K% 19.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.21%	—	×0.770	14.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.150	9.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.848	×1.250	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 94 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.82 (+0.96)K% 23.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.740	17.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.938	×1.300	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 30 IPFIP 4.40 → 6.34 (+1.94)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.680	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.250	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 6.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Lizarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	14.1%	15.7%	3.3%	—	5.50	16.9%	3.7%	185	-0.61	—	—	—
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	85
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	82
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	81
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	81
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	81
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	81
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	81
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	81
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	80
Yoan López R 2016 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.282	3.67	25.5%	17.4%	153	-2.17	2.21	377	80
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	79
Victor Mederos R 2024 · 5.51 FIP	23	SP	5.51	13.4%	12.6%	3.5%	.322	3.93	17.6%	8.4%	198	-1.58	3.73	394	79
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	57	16.8%	13.3%	1.30	5.61
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*