Victor Lizarraga

Victor Lizarraga P San Antonio Missions

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%16.7%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	5.4%	5.10	6.34	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	3.8%	5.10	4.43	—
2022	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	17.2%	9.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.43	3.82	—
2022	18	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	1.2%	3.43	2.86	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	1.8%	4.09	4.07	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	1.8%	4.09	4.07	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	1.2%	4.09	3.22	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	25.1%	10.3%	14.7%	2.0%	4.03	3.37	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	19.9%	13.0%	6.9%	2.2%	5.77	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	22	19	86	417	75	55	14	86%	3.9	13.8%	14.9%	-1.1%	3.9%	7.40	5.94	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	22	19	86	417	75	55	14	86%	3.9	13.8%	14.9%	-1.1%	3.9%	7.40	5.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SD	1	1	3	12	6	0	1	100%	3.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	8.3%	9.00	3.45	—
2026	22	AA RAW	SD	21	18	83	405	69	55	13	86%	4.0	17.0%	13.6%	3.5%	3.2%	7.34	5.14	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	6	25	4	4	1	100%	5.9	16.7%	14.7%	2.0%	2.9%	5.52	5.52	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	92	442	79	59	15	—	—	17.9%	13.3%	4.6%	3.3%	7.28	5.91	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	95	399	72	52	11	100%	5.3	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	2.9%	5.27	5.18	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	97	410	78	50	12	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.8%	5.07	4.98	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	98	415	81	48	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	11.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.93	4.86	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	98	415	82	47	12	100%	6.1	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	2.8%	4.86	4.82	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	97	408	81	47	12	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	94	396	78	46	12	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.0%	4.91	4.94	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	90	378	73	45	12	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.9%	7.5%	3.1%	5.01	5.07	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	84	356	68	43	12	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.3%	5.15	5.25	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	47	198	36	26	6	100%	5.2	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	2.9%	5.31	5.22	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	68	287	54	35	8	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.1%	6.8%	2.9%	5.11	5.02	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	80	338	66	39	10	100%	5.7	19.5%	11.6%	7.9%	2.9%	4.97	4.90	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	86	363	72	42	11	100%	6.1	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.86	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	72	42	11	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	86	363	71	42	11	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.1%	4.95	4.98	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	83	350	68	42	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.9%	7.5%	3.2%	5.05	5.11	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	79	334	63	41	11	100%	6.1	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.4%	5.20	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	618	2608	504	309	79	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.03	4.64	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	163	100	26	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.03	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		122	116	503	2230	372	272	61	95%	4.1	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.75	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	887	148	108	24	95%	4.1	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.75	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Lizarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	16.7%	14.7%	2.9%	—	5.00	18.8%	6.6%	290	-0.52	—	—	—
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	91
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	89
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	89
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	87
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	87
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	86
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	85
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	84
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	91	19.0%	12.1%	1.14	5.05
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88