Victor Lizarraga

Victor Lizarraga P San Antonio Missions

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2030

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%7.8%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2030

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	18.3%	14.4%	5.4%	5.10	6.34	-0.5
2022	18	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	3.43	3.82	+1.5
2023	19	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	14.8%	9.6%	1.7%	4.09	4.02	+1.3
2024	20	AA	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	4.03	4.19	+1.2
2025	21	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	16.8%	14.2%	3.1%	5.77	5.17	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	3	3	7	43	4	11	0	—	—	—	20.25	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	SD	17	17	93	393	77	46	11	19.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	SD	—	—	100	436	81	57	11	18.6%	13.2%	2.6%	5.94	4.59	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	SD	21	21	117	492	102	52	14	20.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.64	+0.9
2028	24	MLB	SD	25	25	136	572	123	56	16	21.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+1.3
2029	25	MLB	SD	27	27	149	630	138	59	18	21.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.38	+1.6
2030	26	MLB	SD	28	28	156	660	145	61	19	22.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+1.7
2031	27	MLB	SD	29	29	159	671	148	62	19	22.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.36	+1.7
2032	28	MLB	SD	29	29	159	670	148	63	19	22.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	SD	28	28	155	654	143	62	19	21.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+1.5
2034	30	MLB	SD	27	27	150	635	138	60	19	21.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.50	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	SD	26	26	145	612	131	59	19	21.5%	9.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+1.2
2036	32	MLB	SD	25	25	139	588	125	58	19	21.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.66	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	SD	24	24	133	561	117	56	18	20.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.76	+0.8
2038	34	MLB	SD	23	23	126	533	109	54	18	20.5%	10.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.87	+0.6
2039	35	MLB	SD	22	22	119	502	101	52	17	20.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.91	4.99	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			103	100	423	1856	318	221	45	17.2%	11.9%	2.4%	4.66	4.50	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—			49	47	200	878	150	104	21	17.2%	11.9%	2.4%	4.66	4.50	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Lizarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	19.6%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.49	21.4%	11.6%	401	-0.43	—	—	—
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	93
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	93
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	93
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	91
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	91
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	91
Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	90
Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	90
Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	90
Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	89
Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	89
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	89
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	89
Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	89
James McArthur R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	89
Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	88
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	88
Hayden Merda R 2027 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.6	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.6	$15M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$15M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.4	$14M	+$10M
Totals		$12M		$89M	+$77M