Will Rudy — OGILVIE

Will Rudy P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%18.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.76	—
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.76	—
2023	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	2.7%	3.46	3.81	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.6%	4.61	5.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.6%	4.61	5.28	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	MIL	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.9%	9.6%	3.3%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	102	431	84	38	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.75	4.72	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	100	424	83	37	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.73	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	98	412	81	36	14	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.79	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	93	393	77	36	14	100%	5.8	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	369	71	35	14	100%	5.8	19.1%	9.4%	9.8%	3.7%	4.99	5.08	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	36	16	6	100%	6.3	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.84	4.81	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	63	266	52	23	9	100%	6.3	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.82	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	61	27	11	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.88	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	62	29	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.7%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	61	30	12	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.4%	9.8%	3.9%	5.09	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	331	1398	272	126	51	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.91	4.58	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	76	31	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.91	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		41	40	194	805	133	72	33	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.1%	4.13	5.07	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	830	137	74	34	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.1%	4.13	5.07	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Rudy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	18.6%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.75	19.6%	10.8%	300	-0.09	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	88
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	87
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	86
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	82
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	82
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	81
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	81
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	81
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	81
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	81
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	80
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	92	19.4%	8.9%	1.31	4.81
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32