Will Rudy — OGILVIE

Will Rudy P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%21.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP74

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	A	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.1%	3.46	4.65	—
2023	22	A	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	2.7%	3.46	3.81	—
2024	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.7%	4.61	5.34	—
2024	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.13	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	MIL	13	13	74	311	66	28	10	100%	5.7	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.64	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	MIL	12	12	74	311	67	28	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.60	4.59	+0.2
2028	27	MLB	MIL	12	12	72	306	66	28	10	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.61	+0.2
2027	26	MLB	MIL	5	5	32	135	29	12	4	100%	6.4	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.55	-0.0
2028	27	MLB	MIL	8	8	46	194	42	18	6	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			13	13	77	326	71	30	10	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	184	78	26	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+2.8
Career	—			41	40	194	805	133	72	32	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.0%	4.13	5.05	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			42	41	200	830	137	74	33	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.0%	4.13	5.05	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Rudy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	21.2%	9.1%	3.3%	—	4.60	21.6%	12.6%	146	-0.04	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	19.2%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	5.47	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.95	4.52	239	84
Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	19.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.321	5.05	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.24	3.81	171	83
Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	25	SP	5.22	20.9%	10.3%	4.7%	.335	5.81	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.59	4.87	274	82
Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	81
Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.86	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.06	120	81
Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	177	81
Zack Wheeler R 2028 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.31	1,536	81
Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP	5.06	23.6%	10.4%	4.8%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	258	80
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	25	SP	4.39	23.0%	10.5%	3.5%	.335	4.65	21.4%	11.7%	382	+0.26	3.67	509	80
Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP	4.79	19.3%	11.8%	3.3%	.286	5.16	19.9%	6.6%	108	+0.37	4.09	414	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	79
Kade McClure R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	25	SP	4.23	21.0%	8.4%	3.4%	.329	4.05	19.4%	11.2%	110	-0.18	3.55	388	79
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP	3.55	20.4%	10.4%	1.6%	.286	5.51	25.3%	9.1%	58	+1.96	3.29	142	79
Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	21.8%	13.3%	2.8%	.290	5.09	23.5%	9.3%	58	+0.63	3.39	236	79
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP	5.37	22.4%	10.1%	5.2%	.295	4.67	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.70	3.70	776	79
Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	5.06	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.03	4.10	218	78
Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	25	SP	3.61	18.4%	7.7%	2.0%	.274	3.93	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.32	3.00	483	78
Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP	4.44	16.9%	8.6%	3.1%	.258	4.95	19.6%	6.5%	105	+0.51	3.38	372	78
M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	21.3%	7.1%	4.3%	.269	4.73	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.15	3.50	395	78
K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	25	SP	4.05	19.3%	9.0%	2.6%	.287	7.08	12.2%	-7.5%	30	+3.03	2.65	253	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	73	21.5%	9.1%	1.27	4.61
Travis Wood ('17)	3	85	20.8%	9.8%	1.34	4.72
Bud Norris ('18)	4	79	22.7%	9.2%	1.28	5.07
Joe Biagini ('19)	4	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Brandon Maurer ('18)	4	53	21.5%	8.8%	1.06	5.20
Matt Albers ('19)	5	49	20.3%	8.3%	1.37	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	5	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41