Will Rudy

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1173ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ACarolina Mudc…	18	18	81	3.46	3.81	20.6%	7.8%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.76
2024	23	A+MIL	23	22	113	4.61	4.13	22.6%	7.7%	—	K 17.4% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.59	4.59	20.5%	9.0%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBMIL	4	4	26	4.67	4.69	20.8%	9.1%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBMIL	6	6	38	4.71	4.75	20.8%	9.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Chase Anderson (age 26) · Riley Gowens (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.76	—
2023	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	81	335	69	26	9	100%	4.5	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	2.7%	3.46	3.81	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.6%	4.61	5.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	17.4%	8.8%	8.6%	4.6%	4.61	5.28	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	23	22	113	470	106	36	17	96%	4.9	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	9.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	70	296	61	27	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.60	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	269	56	25	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.66	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	58	247	51	23	8	100%	5.8	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.4%	4.71	4.78	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	53	222	45	22	8	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.6%	4.84	4.94	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	4	4	26	110	23	10	4	100%	6.5	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.67	4.69	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	38	160	33	15	5	100%	6.3	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.4%	4.71	4.75	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	41	173	36	16	6	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.5%	4.80	4.87	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	41	173	35	17	6	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.94	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	145	614	127	58	22	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.47	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	80	30	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		41	40	194	805	133	72	33	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.1%	4.13	5.07	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	830	137	74	34	98%	4.7	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	4.1%	4.13	5.07	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 113 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.28 (+1.13)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.55%	—	×0.770	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.66%	—	×1.150	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.62%	÷0.979	×1.250	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 81 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.76 (+0.94)K% 20.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.60%	—	×0.740	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.180	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷1.072	×1.300	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Rudy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.5%	9.0%	3.1%	—	4.67	20.8%	11.5%	192	+0.08	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	84
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	82
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	80
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	80
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	79
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	79
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	79
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	79
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	78
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	78
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	78
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	77
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	77
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	77
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	65	20.6%	9.2%	1.26	4.66
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*