Briggs McKenzie

P Rome Emperors

Age 20 LHP A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP45OGV rank#63ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX3 levels	7	7	26	2.08	2.60	28.7%	11.1%	—	K 21.6% · BB 20.7% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	20	MLBATL	1	1	3	4.99	4.99	23.9%	15.0%	0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	21	MLBATL	8	8	43	4.89	4.86	23.0%	13.6%	0.3
2029PROJ74% MLB	22	MLBATL	15	15	80	4.63	4.49	24.3%	11.8%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$4M2034Ext$7M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJacob Bresnahan (age 19) · Caden Grice (age 22) · Jay Groome (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%23.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	26	108	31	12	1	100%	3.7	21.6%	20.7%	0.9%	2.5%	2.08	5.27	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	26	108	31	12	1	100%	3.7	21.6%	20.7%	0.9%	2.5%	2.08	5.27	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	7	26	108	31	12	1	100%	3.7	28.7%	11.1%	17.6%	0.9%	2.08	2.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ATL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.9%	15.0%	9.0%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	84	353	81	48	10	100%	5.6	23.0%	13.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.86	+0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	108	458	111	54	13	100%	5.4	24.3%	11.8%	12.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.49	+1.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	125	527	133	56	15	100%	5.4	25.1%	10.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.39	4.25	+1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	126	534	137	52	15	100%	5.5	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.09	+2.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	530	138	49	15	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.3%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	3.99	+2.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	532	140	49	15	100%	6.0	26.2%	9.3%	17.0%	2.8%	4.01	3.97	+2.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	123	520	136	49	15	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.3%	16.9%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+2.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	497	130	47	15	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.5%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+1.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	110	464	120	45	14	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.22	+1.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	100	421	108	42	14	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.30	4.40	+1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	89	377	95	39	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	10.4%	14.8%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	+0.8
2039	32	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	79	334	83	36	13	100%	6.1	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	3.8%	4.69	4.83	+0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	70	294	71	33	12	100%	5.8	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	4.0%	4.92	5.08	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	43	182	42	25	5	100%	5.4	23.0%	13.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.86	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	80	338	82	40	10	100%	5.3	24.3%	11.8%	12.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.49	+0.9
2030	23	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	106	448	113	47	13	100%	5.6	25.1%	10.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.39	4.25	+1.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	113	477	122	47	13	100%	5.7	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.09	+1.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	115	486	126	45	14	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.3%	16.7%	2.8%	4.08	3.99	+1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	117	494	130	46	14	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.3%	17.0%	2.8%	4.01	3.97	+2.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	117	494	130	46	14	100%	5.8	26.2%	9.3%	16.9%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+1.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	112	473	124	45	14	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.5%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+1.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	104	439	114	43	14	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.22	+1.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	95	401	102	40	13	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.3%	4.30	4.40	+1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	85	359	90	37	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.4%	14.8%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	+0.8
2039	32	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	75	317	78	34	12	100%	6.2	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	3.8%	4.69	4.83	+0.5
2040	33	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	66	279	67	31	11	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	4.0%	4.92	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	213	1229	5188	1321	526	159	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.1%	15.3%	3.1%	4.30	3.92	+21.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	215	86	26	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.1%	15.3%	3.1%	4.30	3.92	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		7	7	26	108	23	22	3	100%	3.7	21.6%	20.7%	0.9%	2.5%	2.08	5.27	+17.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	54	200	831	179	172	21	100%	3.7	21.6%	20.7%	0.9%	2.5%	2.08	5.27	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 10 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.27 (+1.16)K% 28.0% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.770	21.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.00%	—	×1.150	20.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 11 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.61 (+0.75)K% 22.0% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.680	14.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.250	6.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Briggs McKenzie (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.49	24.3%	12.5%	317	-0.50	—	—	—
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	88
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	84
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	83
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	82
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	80
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	80
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	80
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	78
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	77
Scott Kazmir L 2004 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	27.0%	13.8%	2.6%	.337	3.34	24.9%	14.8%	537	-0.68	3.20	1,764	76
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	76
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	76
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	76
Kris Bubic L 2018 · 3.97 FIP	20	SP	3.97	21.0%	13.8%	1.6%	.367	3.99	22.5%	13.0%	329	+0.02	2.13	755	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	104	25.3%	10.5%	1.18	4.35
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15