Kris Bubic
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.8 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8494vR 103
ERA3.15
FIP3.27
K%24.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%15.2%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p6324.6%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
CH+5.2 (20%)
SI (13%)
SL (26%)
FB-1.2 (54%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 10 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 53 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 21.0% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 4.03 | 3.97 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 10 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 53 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 30.8% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 1.2% | 4.03 | 2.49 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 149 | 575 | 185 | 42 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 1.4% | 2.23 | 2.89 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 149 | 575 | 185 | 42 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.2% | 7.3% | 24.9% | 1.0% | 2.23 | 1.99 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 10 | 10 | 50 | 222 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 10 | 10 | 50 | 222 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.32 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 29 | 20 | 130 | 556 | 114 | 59 | 22 | 69% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 4.43 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 29 | 20 | 130 | 556 | 114 | 59 | 22 | 69% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 4.43 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 143 | 645 | 127 | 67 | 20 | 97% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 5.68 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 143 | 645 | 127 | 67 | 20 | 97% | 4.6 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 5.68 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.5% | 2.9% | 20.6% | 1.6% | 3.94 | 2.35 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.5% | 2.9% | 20.6% | 1.5% | 3.94 | 2.29 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 10 | 66 | 272 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 24% | 1.6 | 27.5% | 5.3% | 22.1% | 1.3% | 3.14 | 2.17 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 10 | 66 | 272 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 24% | 1.6 | 29.8% | 5.5% | 24.3% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 2.12 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 20 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 116 | 38 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 2.79 | +3.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 20 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 116 | 38 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 2.76 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 12 | 12 | 55 | 230 | 52 | 27 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 3.27 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 3.11 | 3.23 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 88 | 372 | 87 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.05 | 3.52 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 84 | 354 | 87 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 24.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 3.50 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 379 | 90 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 3.69 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 82 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 3.88 | 4.01 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 79 | 332 | 81 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 56 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 91 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 3.76 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 82 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 3.84 | 3.97 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 81 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.18 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 56 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 181 | 1063 | 4520 | 1024 | 439 | 120 | 83% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.87 | +19.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 34 | 200 | 851 | 193 | 83 | 23 | 83% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 141 | 763 | 3216 | 728 | 303 | 80 | 77% | 4.2 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.75 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 843 | 191 | 79 | 21 | 77% | 4.2 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kris Bubic (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.41 | 24.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | — | 3.92 | 23.8% | 14.2% | 253 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 69 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 63 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 62 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 62 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 61 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 61 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 28 | SP | 2.68 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 0.4% | .220 | 4.83 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 66 | +2.15 | 2.68 | 175 | 60 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 60 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 60 |
| Zach Logue L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 700 | 59 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 59 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2029 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +1.11 | 3.53 | 609 | 59 |
| Bruce Zimmermann L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.18 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .367 | 4.07 | 19.0% | 12.6% | 293 | +0.89 | 2.91 | 934 | 59 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 58 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 76 | +0.09 | 3.75 | 324 | 58 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 58 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 58 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .262 | 4.55 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 172 | +0.04 | 3.64 | 856 | 58 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 57 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 71 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 1.01 | 4.06 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |