Kris Bubic
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.7
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.7 · 2026
ERA3.11
FIP3.37
xFIP4.07
SIERA4.05
K%24.8%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%17.1%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2026
K†5560
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p7729.5%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
CH+5.2 (21%)
SI (12%)
SL (25%)
FB-1.2 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 10 | 10 | 38 | 172 | 53 | 19 | 2 | 21.0% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 149 | 575 | 185 | 42 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 2.23 | 2.87 | +4.1 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 10 | 10 | 50 | 222 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.32 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 29 | 20 | 130 | 556 | 114 | 59 | 22 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 4.1% | 4.43 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 30 | 143 | 645 | 127 | 67 | 20 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.68 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 23.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 2.26 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 10 | 66 | 272 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 27.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 3.14 | 2.17 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 20 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 116 | 38 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 2.78 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 4 | 23 | 89 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 29.2% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 3.97 | 3.29 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 69 | 23 | 5 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 2.59 | 3.10 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 87 | 360 | 95 | 33 | 7 | 26.3% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 2.95 | 3.15 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 83 | 24 | 6 | 26.8% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 3.28 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.29 | 3.37 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 55 | 17 | 5 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 3.40 | 3.48 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 44 | 14 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.59 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 133 | 731 | 3075 | 697 | 284 | 75 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 3.69 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 36 | 200 | 841 | 191 | 78 | 21 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 3.69 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kris Bubic (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.50 | 23.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | — | 3.36 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 185 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 77 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 76 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 76 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 75 |
| John Gast L 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 74 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 73 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 73 |
| Eric Wooten L 2023 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 73 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 73 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 73 |
| Kyle Hald L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 73 |
| Orlando Lara L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 72 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 72 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 11.0% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .314 | 3.92 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 169 | -0.36 | 3.91 | 341 | 72 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.37 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.07 | 3.37 | 393 | 72 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 71 |
| Jaime García L 2027 · 2.96 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.96 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.28 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 411 | +1.32 | 2.96 | 540 | 71 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.11 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +1.03 | 4.11 | 182 | 71 |
| Greg Smith L 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 70 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2020
Service 5.785 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.7 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $6M | $14M | +$7M | ||