Kris Bubic — OGILVIE

Kris Bubic P Kansas City Royals

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 103

ERA3.16

FIP3.28

K%24.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

CH+5.2 (20%)

SI (13%)

SL (26%)

FB-1.2 (54%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.785 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.2M
Totals		$0.5M		$0.3M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	21.0%	13.8%	7.1%	1.6%	4.03	3.97	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	30.8%	11.0%	19.8%	1.2%	4.03	2.49	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	1.4%	2.23	2.86	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	32.2%	7.3%	24.9%	1.0%	2.23	1.99	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.9%	4.32	4.57	+0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.6%	4.32	4.48	+0.2
2021	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.3%	4.43	5.06	-0.2
2021	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.0%	4.43	4.91	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	3.4%	5.68	4.63	+0.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.1%	5.68	4.55	+0.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.6%	3.94	2.36	+0.5
2023	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.6%	3.94	2.36	+0.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.5%	3.94	2.29	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	26.8%	4.7%	22.2%	1.3%	3.14	2.16	+1.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	26.8%	4.7%	22.2%	1.3%	3.14	2.16	+1.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	29.8%	5.5%	24.3%	1.5%	3.14	2.12	+2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.3%	2.55	2.76	+3.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			126	89	522	2237	495	211	61	71%	4.1	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	2.7%	4.14	3.94	+6.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	17	12	59	245	58	28	4	71%	3.5	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	2.1%	4.27	3.76	+0.8
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	17	12	59	245	58	28	4	71%	3.5	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	2.1%	4.27	3.76	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	KC	8	3	9	38	7	2	0	38%	1.1	18.4%	5.3%	13.2%	0.0%	5.19	2.21	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	KC	9	9	50	207	51	26	4	100%	5.6	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	1.9%	4.11	3.67	+0.7
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	KC	9	9	50	207	51	26	4	100%	5.6	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	1.9%	4.11	3.67	+0.7
ROS	28	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	7	31	8	3	1	100%	7.4	24.4%	9.3%	15.2%	1.9%	3.16	3.28	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	24.4%	9.3%	15.2%	1.8%	3.08	3.20	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	66	276	66	31	5	—	—	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	1.7%	4.15	3.70	+0.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	58	244	66	31	5	—	—	26.9%	12.7%	14.2%	1.9%	4.76	3.46	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	379	90	36	8	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	2.1%	3.70	3.81	+1.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	84	356	82	35	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.3%	3.89	4.02	+0.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	332	81	31	8	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.3%	15.0%	2.5%	3.94	3.98	+0.9
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	307	72	30	8	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.7%	13.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.23	+0.6
2031	33	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	282	64	29	9	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.51	+0.3
2032	34	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	61	256	56	27	9	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.82	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	90	380	91	36	7	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	1.9%	3.61	3.72	+1.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	82	35	7	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.1%	3.80	3.93	+0.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	81	31	8	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.3%	15.0%	2.3%	3.84	3.88	+0.9
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	73	30	8	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.7%	13.8%	2.5%	4.01	4.12	+0.6
2031	33	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	67	283	64	29	8	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.24	4.39	+0.3
2032	34	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	61	258	56	28	8	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	166	982	4180	948	402	108	82%	4.8	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	2.6%	4.05	3.81	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	34	200	851	193	82	22	82%	4.8	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	2.6%	4.05	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		187	141	767	3231	730	303	81	75%	4.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.5%	3.79	3.76	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	842	190	79	21	75%	4.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.5%	3.79	3.76	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kris Bubic (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.41	24.2%	7.3%	1.9%	—	3.93	23.8%	14.2%	253	+0.52	—	—	—
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	68
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	65
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	62
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	20.7%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.12	17.9%	12.3%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	61
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	61
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	61
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	60
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	60
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	60
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	60
Wade LeBlanc L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	31	SP-	3.65	20.3%	5.3%	2.9%	.289	4.62	18.7%	13.0%	351	+0.97	3.65	609	59
Andrew Barbosa L 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SP	2.70	20.3%	8.3%	0.5%	.220	4.67	20.2%	10.6%	66	+1.97	2.70	175	59
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	58
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	57
James Paxton L 2017 · 2.46 FIP	28	SP	2.46	28.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	3.43	30.7%	23.1%	331	+0.97	2.46	924	57
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	57
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	165	57
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	56
Justin Marks L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	19.1%	9.3%	2.3%	.283	3.83	18.7%	7.7%	76	-0.08	3.83	324	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	23.5%	9.4%	0.97	3.94
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81