Kris Bubic

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX4 levels	41	10	66	3.14	2.12	29.8%	5.5%	2.0	K 27.2% · BB 4.7% · FIP 2.13
2025	27	MLBKC	20	20	116	2.55	2.76	24.4%	8.0%	3.9
2026	28	MIX2 levels	23	12	65	3.88	3.21	24.4%	10.7%	1.7	K 24.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAD	9	9	53	3.53	3.75	24.1%	9.3%	1.1
2028PROJ	30	MLBLAD	10	10	59	3.84	4.01	23.4%	9.6%	1.0
2029PROJ	31	MLBLAD	9	9	52	4.09	4.25	22.6%	10.0%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.785First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%64

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo14

CompsJohn Lamb (age 28) · John Bale (age 29) · Chris O'Grady (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.53

FIP3.75

K%24.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p6424.8%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.785 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.1	$9M	-$4M
Totals		$12M		$9M	-$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	21.0%	13.8%	7.1%	1.6%	4.03	3.97	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	30.8%	11.0%	19.8%	1.2%	4.03	2.49	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	1.4%	2.23	2.86	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	32.2%	7.3%	24.9%	1.0%	2.23	1.99	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.9%	4.32	4.57	+0.5
2020	22	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.6%	4.32	4.48	+0.5
2021	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.3%	4.43	5.06	+0.5
2021	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.0%	4.43	4.91	+0.7
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	3.4%	5.68	4.63	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.1%	5.68	4.55	+1.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.6%	3.94	2.36	+0.6
2023	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.5%	3.94	2.29	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	27.2%	4.7%	22.5%	1.3%	3.14	2.13	+1.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	27.2%	4.7%	22.5%	1.3%	3.14	2.13	+1.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	29.8%	5.5%	24.3%	1.5%	3.14	2.12	+2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.8
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.8
2025	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.3%	2.55	2.76	+3.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	1.7%	3.88	3.40	+1.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	1.7%	3.88	3.40	+1.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	1.5%	3.88	3.21	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			131	89	527	2256	500	211	61	68%	4.0	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.10	3.91	+9.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAD	9	9	53	224	54	21	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.3%	14.7%	2.0%	3.53	3.75	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	59	249	58	24	6	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	2.2%	3.79	3.96	+1.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	52	220	50	22	5	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.5%	4.03	4.19	+0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	58	24	6	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.84	4.01	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	50	22	6	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.6%	4.09	4.25	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	108	638	2726	608	257	73	72%	4.3	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.87	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	34	200	855	191	81	23	72%	4.3	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.87	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		193	141	773	3256	737	303	81	73%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.73	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	842	191	78	21	73%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.73	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 10 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.23 (+0.18)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×0.900	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 27 IPFIP 2.54 → 2.73 (+0.18)K% 25.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.44%	—	×0.860	21.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×0.900	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.87%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 5 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.55 (+1.24)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.810	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.920	×1.200	6.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 14 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.96 (+0.56)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.31%	—	×0.880	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.050	7.24%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.984	×1.100	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 102 IPFIP 2.02 → 2.87 (+0.85)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.06%	—	×0.770	21.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.89%	—	×1.150	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷0.884	×1.250	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALexington Legends · 48 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.83 (+1.25)K% 41.0% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.98%	—	×0.740	30.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.180	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.095	×1.300	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 38 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.97 (+1.44)K% 30.8% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.81%	—	×0.680	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×1.250	13.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kris Bubic (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.0%	—	4.07	23.0%	13.2%	111	+0.32	—	—	—
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	61
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	59
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	59
Mike Montgomery L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP-	3.64	16.1%	6.6%	1.9%	.300	5.22	17.4%	8.6%	108	+1.58	3.43	764	59
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	58
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	58
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	58
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	57
Tom Gorzelanny L 2011 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP-	3.94	21.3%	6.3%	3.4%	.282	3.69	22.2%	13.4%	178	-0.25	2.67	899	56
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	55
Scott Downs L 2005 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	18.4%	8.4%	2.9%	.283	3.29	20.5%	12.9%	206	-0.93	2.68	748	55
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	54
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,056	54
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	54
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	53
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	52
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	52
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	52
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	52
Brian Burres L 2010 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	12.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.281	6.49	16.7%	10.0%	14	+1.91	4.50	344	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	77	22.4%	9.6%	1.00	4.03
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Wade Davis ('21)	5.0	83	22.1%	9.3%	0.95	3.94
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80
Don Aase ('77-'90, 12 WAR*)	5.5	92	20.7%*	9.6%*	0.94*	4.14*
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*