Coleman Crow — OGILVIE

Coleman Crow P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 124 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.20

FIP4.16

K%19.1%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP124

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—55

CMD4550

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SL+0.8 (8%)

CT (36%)

SI (17%)

CU (21%)

FB-0.8 (35%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.96	—
2021	20	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	2.4%	4.19	3.97	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	3.8%	4.85	4.50	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	23.1%	6.3%	16.8%	3.6%	4.85	3.95	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	4.3%	1.88	3.97	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	36.0%	7.0%	29.1%	3.5%	1.88	2.89	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	1.5%	3.24	2.04	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	2.5%	3.85	3.76	+1.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	2.5%	3.85	3.76	+1.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.3%	3.85	3.52	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	4	19	85	10	5	2	80%	3.7	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.4%	5.30	4.22	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	21	21	124	524	100	35	14	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.6%	12.4%	2.6%	4.20	4.16	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	632	122	43	17	100%	6.0	19.3%	6.8%	12.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.20	+1.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	632	123	44	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.26	4.29	+1.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	143	604	114	44	18	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.45	+0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	134	568	104	43	18	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.54	4.65	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	125	529	93	42	18	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.74	4.88	+0.0
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	116	490	82	41	18	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.3%	8.5%	3.7%	4.98	5.14	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	96	405	78	28	12	100%	6.0	19.3%	6.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	114	481	93	34	14	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.37	+0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	117	494	94	36	16	100%	5.8	18.9%	7.3%	11.7%	3.2%	4.45	4.53	+0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	116	490	90	37	16	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.74	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	111	469	82	37	17	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	3.6%	4.83	4.97	+0.0
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	105	443	74	37	17	100%	5.8	16.8%	8.3%	8.5%	3.9%	5.08	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	114	678	2870	522	214	94	99%	5.9	18.2%	7.4%	10.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.31	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	154	63	28	99%	5.9	18.2%	7.4%	10.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		78	72	388	1649	323	126	49	92%	5.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.05	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	849	166	65	25	92%	5.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.05	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Coleman Crow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	19.1%	6.6%	2.6%	—	4.31	19.2%	12.2%	443	+0.15	—	—	—
Mike Bolsinger R 2014 · 3.85 FIP	26	SP	3.85	20.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.353	3.84	22.1%	13.0%	327	-0.01	3.42	379	80
Corey Kluber R 2012 · 4.05 FIP	26	SP	4.05	19.2%	6.4%	3.2%	.335	2.64	26.6%	21.7%	605	-1.41	2.16	1,636	80
Allan Winans R 2022 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	19.4%	6.3%	1.9%	.299	3.53	20.2%	14.2%	373	+0.23	2.52	541	76
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	76
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	76
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	235	74
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	74
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	74
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	73
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	73
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	73
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	73
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	72
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	72
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	72
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	71
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71
Ryan Vogelsong R 2003 · 3.14 FIP	26	SP	3.14	13.9%	5.6%	0.9%	.337	4.46	14.8%	5.0%	252	+1.32	3.14	1,184	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	137	18.4%	7.3%	1.18	4.47
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Odalis Perez ('08)	6.7	148	16.2%	6.8%	1.09	4.46
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jeremy Bonderman ('13)	6.2	154	18.0%	8.1%	1.13	4.91
Shaun Marcum ('15)	5.2	129	19.4%	7.3%	1.22	3.93
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30