Coleman Crow

P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAASP40M40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AALAA	4	4	24	1.88	2.89	36.0%	7.0%	—	K 29.2% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.97
2025	24	MIX2 levels	12	12	50	3.24	2.04	32.0%	6.0%	—	K 25.2% · BB 5.3% · FIP 2.31
2026	25	MIX2 levels	25	23	124	3.85	3.52	21.5%	7.7%	2.8	K 18.7% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.76
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	14	14	87	4.23	4.19	19.1%	6.9%	1.2
2028PROJ77% MLB	27	MLBMIL	16	16	97	4.30	4.30	19.3%	7.0%	1.3
2029PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBMIL	16	16	95	4.36	4.40	19.4%	7.2%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.273First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs26

FB Velo10

K%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsMike Bolsinger (age 26) · Corey Kluber (age 26) · Allan Winans (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.19

K%19.1%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$38M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.96	—
2021	20	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	2.4%	4.19	3.97	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	3.8%	4.85	4.50	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	23.1%	6.3%	16.8%	3.6%	4.85	3.95	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	4.3%	1.88	3.97	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	36.0%	7.0%	29.1%	3.5%	1.88	2.89	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	1.5%	3.24	2.04	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	2.5%	3.85	3.76	+2.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	2.5%	3.85	3.76	+2.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	124	522	112	40	12	92%	5.0	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.3%	3.85	3.52	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	4	19	85	10	5	2	80%	3.7	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.4%	5.30	4.22	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	14	14	87	367	70	25	10	100%	6.2	19.1%	6.9%	12.2%	2.6%	4.23	4.19	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	126	532	103	37	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+1.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	116	490	95	35	14	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	2.8%	4.28	4.32	+1.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	105	444	84	33	13	100%	5.8	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.47	+1.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	94	398	73	31	13	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.67	+0.8
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	83	351	62	28	12	100%	5.9	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	3.4%	4.77	4.91	+0.5
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	72	306	51	26	11	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.5%	8.3%	3.7%	5.00	5.16	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	79	29	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+1.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	95	401	78	29	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.40	+1.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	89	376	71	28	12	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.47	4.55	+1.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	82	346	63	27	12	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.8%	10.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.76	+0.7
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	55	25	11	100%	6.2	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	3.6%	4.86	5.00	+0.4
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	65	274	46	23	11	100%	5.9	16.8%	8.5%	8.3%	3.9%	5.10	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	88	521	2207	403	166	71	99%	5.9	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	3.2%	4.61	4.28	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	155	64	27	99%	5.9	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	3.2%	4.61	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		78	72	388	1649	323	126	49	92%	5.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.05	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	849	166	65	25	92%	5.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.05	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 105 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.70 (+0.30)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.34%	—	×0.860	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×0.900	7.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 43 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.31 (+0.58)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.14%	—	×0.810	25.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.79%	—	×1.100	5.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 7 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.49 (+0.26)K% 36.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.860	31.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×0.900	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.111	×1.100	3.00%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 24 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.97 (+1.12)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.05%	—	×0.810	29.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.100	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷0.970	×1.200	4.31%

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 128 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.50 (+0.57)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.10%	—	×0.810	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.100	6.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.131	×1.200	3.83%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AInland Empire 66ers · 62 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.96 (+1.07)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.60%	—	×0.740	15.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.10%	—	×1.180	11.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.023	×1.300	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Coleman Crow (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.33	19.2%	12.0%	347	+0.14	—	—	—
Mike Bolsinger R 2014 · 3.85 FIP	26	SP	3.85	20.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.353	3.84	22.1%	13.0%	327	-0.01	3.42	379	80
Corey Kluber R 2012 · 4.05 FIP	26	SP	4.05	19.2%	6.4%	3.2%	.335	2.64	26.6%	21.7%	605	-1.41	2.16	1,636	79
Allan Winans R 2022 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	19.4%	6.3%	1.9%	.299	3.53	20.2%	14.2%	373	+0.23	2.52	541	76
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	76
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	76
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	74
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	74
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	235	74
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	74
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	73
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	72
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	72
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	71
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	71
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	18.5%	7.4%	1.16	4.47
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Rod Nichols ('88-'95, 1 WAR*)	2.1	103	16.1%*	6.6%*	1.21*	4.64*
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38