Coleman Crow
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 25
RHP
5'10" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10090vR 81
ERA3.49
FIP3.49
K%23.4%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p1016.3%
K%
p1011.8%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL+0.8 (8%)
CT (36%)
SI (17%)
CU (21%)
FB-0.8 (35%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 13 | 10 | 62 | 287 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 77% | 4.8 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.92 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 13 | 10 | 62 | 287 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 77% | 4.8 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 24 | 23 | 128 | 554 | 128 | 35 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.28 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 24 | 23 | 128 | 554 | 128 | 35 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 23.1% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 3.95 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 4 | 4 | 24 | 86 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 4.4% | 1.88 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 4 | 4 | 24 | 86 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 36.0% | 7.0% | 29.1% | 3.5% | 1.88 | 2.89 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 50 | 200 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.2% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 1.1% | 3.24 | 2.23 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 50 | 200 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 26.0% | 1.5% | 3.24 | 2.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 14 | 12 | 60 | 262 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 86% | 4.3 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 125 | 536 | 118 | 41 | 16 | — | — | 22.1% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.97 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 83 | 352 | 118 | 41 | 15 | — | — | 33.5% | 11.8% | 21.8% | 4.4% | 6.35 | 4.16 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 141 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +2.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 138 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.91 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 597 | 133 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 126 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.14 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 116 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 107 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 109 | 462 | 96 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 424 | 86 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 4.84 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 386 | 77 | 34 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 134 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.81 | +2.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 132 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.88 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 126 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.98 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 119 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 6.9% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 111 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 101 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 92 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 82 | 34 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 4.80 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 69 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 5.05 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 194 | 193 | 1140 | 4820 | 1040 | 345 | 151 | 99% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 3.90 | +20.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 182 | 61 | 26 | 99% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 61 | 324 | 1389 | 274 | 114 | 42 | 91% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.14 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 169 | 70 | 26 | 91% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Coleman Crow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.60 | 25.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | — | 3.92 | 22.4% | 16.0% | 435 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 88 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 85 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 84 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 84 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 84 |
| Dan Straily R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.42 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .343 | 4.60 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 495 | +1.18 | 3.42 | 890 | 80 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 79 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.61 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .274 | 3.93 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.32 | 3.00 | 483 | 79 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 78 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 183 | +0.97 | 3.24 | 289 | 78 |
| Félix Peña R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.68 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 3.92 | 24.0% | 15.6% | 263 | +0.24 | 2.84 | 615 | 78 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 77 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2024 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.74 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 144 | 77 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.72 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | .261 | 4.54 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 282 | -0.18 | 3.06 | 584 | 77 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 77 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 77 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.27 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 3.87 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 261 | -0.40 | 3.80 | 651 | 76 |
| Erasmo Ramírez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .267 | 4.71 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 286 | +1.05 | 2.85 | 908 | 76 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | .269 | 4.73 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.15 | 3.50 | 395 | 76 |
| Logan Evans R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.20 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 232 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 122 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 1.24 | 4.21 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jordan Montgomery ('24) | 7 | 124 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.07 | 4.01 |