Coleman Crow
P
Nashville Sounds
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
5'10" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.93
FIP3.93
xFIP4.02
SIERA3.98
K%24.2%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%16.3%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6060
SL+0.8 (10%)
CT (30%)
SI (16%)
CU (23%)
FB-0.8 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 13 | 10 | 62 | 287 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 24 | 23 | 128 | 554 | 128 | 35 | 20 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 4 | 4 | 24 | 86 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.88 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 12 | 12 | 50 | 200 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 25.2% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 3.24 | 2.34 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 3 | 2 | 16 | 66 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 3.00 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 14 | — | 14 | 58 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 29 | 124 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.98 | 3.43 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 24.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 51 | 280 | 1193 | 241 | 95 | 37 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 36 | 200 | 852 | 172 | 68 | 26 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Coleman Crow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.93 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | — | 3.98 | 24.2% | 16.2% | 102 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 92 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 90 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 90 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 89 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 88 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 85 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 82 |
| Cam Bedrosian R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 27.9% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.68 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 140 | +0.56 | 1.79 | 344 | 82 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 82 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 82 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 82 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 81 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .266 | 4.42 | 26.5% | 18.0% | 166 | -0.04 | 3.97 | 252 | 81 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 201 | 81 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.00 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 1.2% | .172 | 4.28 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 83 | +1.28 | 3.00 | 107 | 81 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 80 |
| Michael Baird R 2025 · 2.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.85 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 0.9% | .273 | 6.16 | 21.6% | 13.1% | 94 | +3.31 | 2.85 | 132 | 80 |
| Edubray Ramos R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .261 | 6.23 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 15 | +3.05 | 2.55 | 264 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$3M | ||