Coleman Crow — OGILVIE

Coleman Crow P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 81

ERA3.39

FIP3.39

K%23.4%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—55

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1016.3%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SL+0.8 (8%)

CT (36%)

SI (17%)

CU (21%)

FB-0.8 (35%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+1.6	$10M	+$4M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.3	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$15M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$47M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.96	—
2021	20	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	13	10	62	287	62	29	7	77%	4.8	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	2.4%	4.19	3.97	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	3.8%	4.85	4.50	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	24	23	128	554	128	35	20	96%	5.3	23.1%	6.3%	16.8%	3.6%	4.85	3.95	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	4.3%	1.88	3.97	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	4.3%	1.88	3.97	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	4	4	24	86	31	6	3	100%	6.0	36.0%	7.0%	29.1%	3.5%	1.88	2.89	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	25.2%	5.3%	20.0%	1.2%	3.24	2.31	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	50	200	64	12	3	100%	4.2	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	1.5%	3.24	2.04	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	4	19	85	10	5	2	80%	3.7	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.4%	5.30	4.22	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	23	21	114	481	104	38	12	91%	5.0	18.3%	7.2%	11.1%	2.7%	4.01	3.94	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	23	21	114	481	104	38	12	91%	5.0	18.3%	7.2%	11.1%	2.7%	4.01	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIL	18	17	96	396	94	33	10	94%	5.3	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	2.5%	3.76	3.54	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIL	5	4	19	85	10	5	2	80%	3.7	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.4%	5.30	4.14	+0.2
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIL	5	4	19	85	10	5	2	80%	3.7	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	2.4%	5.30	4.14	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	12	53	12	3	1	100%	6.2	23.4%	6.1%	17.2%	2.7%	3.39	3.39	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	12	51	12	3	1	100%	6.0	23.4%	6.1%	17.2%	2.8%	3.47	3.47	+0.2
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	127	534	116	41	13	—	—	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	2.5%	3.95	3.89	+1.5
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	31	131	116	41	13	—	—	88.5%	31.4%	57.1%	10.3%	16.13	5.24	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	155	654	147	40	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	6.0%	16.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.82	+2.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	157	662	149	41	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	6.2%	16.2%	2.8%	3.88	3.89	+1.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	157	662	148	43	19	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	2.9%	3.95	3.99	+1.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	632	139	42	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.7%	15.4%	3.0%	4.06	4.13	+1.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	141	594	129	42	19	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.31	+1.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	131	554	118	41	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.4%	14.0%	3.5%	4.39	4.51	+0.6
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	121	512	107	40	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	3.7%	4.60	4.74	+0.2
2034	33	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	111	470	96	39	19	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	4.0%	4.83	4.99	-0.1
2035	34	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	101	428	85	37	18	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	4.3%	5.09	5.26	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	147	621	140	37	18	100%	6.1	22.5%	6.0%	16.5%	2.8%	3.90	3.89	+1.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	149	629	141	39	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	6.2%	16.2%	2.9%	3.96	3.97	+1.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	149	629	140	41	19	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.07	+1.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	142	600	132	40	19	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.14	4.21	+1.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	134	566	123	40	19	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.4%	4.30	4.40	+0.9
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	125	528	113	39	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.4%	14.0%	3.6%	4.48	4.60	+0.6
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	115	486	101	38	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	3.9%	4.70	4.84	+0.2
2034	33	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	106	448	91	37	19	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	4.2%	4.94	5.10	-0.1
2035	34	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	92	388	77	34	17	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	4.5%	5.21	5.38	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		200	199	1189	5026	1081	353	171	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.04	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	182	59	29	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.04	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		76	70	379	1608	313	125	49	92%	5.0	19.5%	7.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.09	4.12	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	849	165	66	26	92%	5.0	19.5%	7.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.09	4.12	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Coleman Crow (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.57	25.4%	5.9%	2.7%	—	3.90	22.4%	16.2%	468	+0.33	—	—	—
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	88
Dan Straily R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP	3.50	19.9%	5.5%	2.5%	.343	4.57	20.7%	12.5%	495	+1.07	3.50	890	87
Erasmo Ramírez R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SP-	3.62	18.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.267	4.64	18.4%	13.0%	286	+1.02	2.92	908	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	81
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	81
Chad Bettis R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	26	SP	3.67	19.1%	7.6%	2.2%	.310	4.17	15.9%	8.9%	385	+0.50	3.67	603	81
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	80
Jeremy Hellickson R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	19.0%	6.3%	3.4%	.285	4.33	17.2%	11.3%	444	+0.16	3.74	646	80
Erik Johnson R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	21.8%	8.8%	1.8%	.283	5.87	16.4%	8.4%	112	+2.54	3.33	280	79
Jake Odorizzi R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP	3.57	21.4%	6.6%	2.6%	.270	4.46	21.8%	13.3%	495	+0.89	3.16	1,048	79
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	79
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	79
Mike Hauschild R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	25	SP	3.26	17.2%	6.4%	1.5%	.311	3.78	17.5%	8.1%	349	+0.52	3.17	579	78
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	78
Jerad Eickhoff R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.274	3.90	20.0%	13.5%	344	+0.01	3.87	875	78
Mike Bolsinger R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	23.2%	9.3%	2.0%	.287	4.23	21.0%	12.1%	171	+0.81	3.42	327	78
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	78
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	78
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	25	SP	3.93	17.4%	4.7%	3.1%	.332	4.84	15.1%	9.4%	261	+0.91	3.71	879	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	136	22.0%	6.9%	1.24	4.19
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17