Allan Winans
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+1.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP3.92
xFIP5.60
SIERA4.89
K%21.8%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%14.3%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
SL+1.5 (19%)
SI (30%)
CU (3%)
CH-2.1 (33%)
FB-3.4 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 11 | 0 | 19 | 87 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 11.7% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 4.66 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 30 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 2.74 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 0 | 47 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 1.72 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 14 | 12 | 64 | 275 | 65 | 17 | 4 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 3.08 | 3.29 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 23 | 159 | 647 | 147 | 43 | 16 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 3.69 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 26 | 18 | 122 | 521 | 104 | 35 | 18 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 19 | 109 | 443 | 111 | 30 | 6 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 2.24 | 2.62 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 86 | 33 | 12 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 81 | 33 | 12 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 76 | 32 | 12 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 71 | 31 | 12 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 59 | 30 | 11 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 52 | 25 | 10 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 160 | 72 | 563 | 2326 | 461 | 171 | 53 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 3.61 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 26 | 200 | 826 | 164 | 61 | 19 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 3.61 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Allan Winans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.46 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 296 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 72 |
| Sam LeCure R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 69 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 67 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 30 | SP- | 2.98 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% | .337 | 4.29 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 157 | +1.31 | 2.98 | 598 | 67 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 66 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 64 |
| Doug Fister R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.05 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.27 | 3.76 | 455 | 63 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 63 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 63 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.13 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .278 | 2.34 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.79 | 2.16 | 287 | 63 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 62 |
| Scott Feldman R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 62 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 62 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 61 |
| Michael Brady R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.31 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 55 | -0.50 | 3.08 | 333 | 61 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 60 |
| Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.68 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.49 | 2.89 | 326 | 60 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 60 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.3 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.1 | $9M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $14M | $23M | +$10M | ||