Allan Winans
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 145 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.92
FIP4.00
K%19.7%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP145
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.5 (19%)
SI (30%)
CU (3%)
CH-2.1 (33%)
FB-3.4 (46%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 11 | 0 | 19 | 87 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 11.7% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 4.66 | 4.27 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 11 | 0 | 19 | 87 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 4.66 | 3.31 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 30 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 2.74 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 30 | 0 | 43 | 174 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 1.1% | 2.74 | 2.82 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 47 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 1.72 | 3.72 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 47 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 1.72 | 2.97 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 12 | 64 | 275 | 65 | 17 | 4 | 86% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 3.08 | 3.35 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 12 | 64 | 275 | 65 | 17 | 4 | 86% | 4.6 | 23.6% | 6.2% | 17.5% | 1.5% | 3.08 | 2.68 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 159 | 647 | 147 | 43 | 16 | 79% | 5.5 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 3.35 | 3.72 | +3.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 159 | 647 | 147 | 43 | 16 | 79% | 5.5 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.37 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 122 | 521 | 104 | 35 | 18 | 69% | 4.7 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.05 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 122 | 521 | 104 | 35 | 18 | 69% | 4.7 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 109 | 443 | 111 | 30 | 6 | 79% | 4.5 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 16.1% | 1.0% | 2.24 | 2.57 | +3.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 19 | 109 | 443 | 111 | 30 | 6 | 79% | 4.5 | 25.1% | 6.8% | 18.3% | 1.4% | 2.24 | 2.60 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 157 | 0 | 165 | 697 | 137 | 41 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 4.00 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 147 | 0 | 154 | 650 | 125 | 42 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.25 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 136 | 0 | 142 | 601 | 112 | 42 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 124 | 0 | 131 | 552 | 99 | 41 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 46 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 61 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 84 | 0 | 88 | 372 | 67 | 28 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 9 | 273 | 1172 | 218 | 80 | 41 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 4.32 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 7 | 200 | 859 | 160 | 59 | 30 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 160 | 72 | 563 | 2326 | 461 | 171 | 54 | 45% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 3.64 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 26 | 200 | 826 | 164 | 61 | 19 | 45% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Allan Winans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 427 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 68 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 66 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 65 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 65 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 65 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 64 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 64 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 63 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 63 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 61 |
| Doug Fister R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 60 |
| A.J. Morris R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.92 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 123 | 60 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 60 |
| Chris Mazza R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.90 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .348 | 3.84 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 111 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 563 | 59 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 59 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 59 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 59 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 148 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.15 | 4.23 |
| Jason Hammel ('18) | 4 | 161 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 1.28 | 4.65 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Jeff Samardzija ('19) | 5 | 170 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 1.24 | 4.31 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |