Allan Winans

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIEArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	29	23	159	3.35	3.37	22.7%	6.6%	4.0	K 20.3% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.63
2024	28	MIX2 levels	26	18	122	4.05	4.17	20.0%	6.7%	1.8	K 17.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.27
2025	29	MIX2 levels	24	19	109	2.24	2.60	25.1%	6.8%	3.8	K 22.7% · BB 6.1% · FIP 2.52
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBNYY	15	0	16	3.77	3.96	19.7%	5.2%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBNYY	47	0	49	4.17	4.35	19.1%	5.8%	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBNYY	58	0	61	4.46	4.64	18.5%	6.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$10M2028Arb-3$10M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control60Command60FB velo34

CompsHisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Casey Lawrence (age 30) · Josh A. Smith (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.77

FIP3.96

K%19.7%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	11	0	19	87	15	7	1	0%	1.8	11.7%	10.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.66	4.27	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	11	0	19	87	15	7	1	0%	1.8	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	1.1%	4.66	3.31	—
2019	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	43	174	40	14	2	0%	1.4	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	1.6%	2.74	3.73	—
2019	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	43	174	40	14	2	0%	1.4	23.0%	8.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.74	2.82	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	47	179	45	15	3	0%	1.8	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	2.0%	1.72	3.71	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	47	179	45	15	3	0%	1.8	25.1%	8.4%	16.8%	1.7%	1.72	2.97	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	12	64	275	65	17	4	86%	4.6	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	1.9%	3.08	3.30	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	12	64	275	65	17	4	86%	4.6	23.6%	6.2%	17.5%	1.5%	3.08	2.68	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	159	647	147	43	16	79%	5.5	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	2.7%	3.35	3.63	+3.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	159	647	147	43	16	79%	5.5	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.37	+4.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	17.9%	5.8%	12.1%	3.6%	4.05	4.27	+1.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	17.9%	5.8%	12.1%	3.6%	4.05	4.27	+1.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	20.0%	6.7%	13.2%	3.5%	4.05	4.17	+1.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	1.0%	2.24	2.52	+4.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	1.0%	2.24	2.52	+4.0
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	1.4%	2.24	2.60	+3.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	9	49	228	44	14	10	82%	4.5	19.3%	6.1%	13.2%	4.4%	7.48	4.80	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	NYY	15	0	16	68	13	4	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	5.2%	14.5%	2.7%	3.77	3.96	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYY	127	0	133	561	107	33	17	0%	1.0	19.1%	5.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.06	4.24	+0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	NYY	106	0	111	470	87	30	15	0%	1.0	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	3.3%	4.34	4.52	+0.0
2030	34	MLB MLE	NYY	89	0	93	393	70	27	14	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.5%	4.62	4.81	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYY	47	0	49	207	40	12	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	5.8%	13.3%	3.2%	4.17	4.35	+0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	NYY	58	0	61	258	48	17	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	3.5%	4.46	4.64	+0.0
2030	34	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	35	14	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.8%	4.75	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	9	207	892	167	57	33	6%	1.3	18.7%	6.3%	12.3%	3.7%	5.18	4.36	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	9	200	864	162	55	32	6%	1.3	18.7%	6.3%	12.3%	3.7%	5.18	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		160	72	563	2326	454	156	53	45%	3.5	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	2.3%	3.12	3.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	26	200	826	161	56	19	45%	3.5	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	2.3%	3.12	3.56	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 99 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.52 (+0.24)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.45%	—	×0.860	22.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×0.900	6.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.070	×1.100	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 115 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.27 (+0.40)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.860	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.968	×1.100	3.55%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 126 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.62 (+0.31)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.33%	—	×0.860	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.11%	—	×0.900	6.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 44 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.92 (+0.60)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.16%	—	×0.810	18.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.74%	—	×1.100	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷0.927	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 15 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.37 (+0.51)K% 24.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.880	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.981	×1.100	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 27 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.19 (+0.88)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.16%	—	×0.810	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.100	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷0.995	×1.200	3.51%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 20 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.07 (+0.58)K% 21.1% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.770	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.150	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AColumbia Fireflies · 43 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.73 (+0.92)K% 23.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.99%	—	×0.740	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.180	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.949	×1.300	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Allan Winans (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	19.7%	5.2%	2.7%	—	4.49	18.5%	12.2%	337	+0.53	—	—	—
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	78
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	73
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	66
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	65
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	64
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	63
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	62
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	60
Eddie Gamboa R 2016 · 2.92 FIP	31	SW	2.92	20.7%	11.3%	0.2%	.257	5.43	12.4%	2.1%	164	+2.51	2.92	385	59
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	58
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	57
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	57
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	57
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	57
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	57
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	56
Tyler Cloyd R 2018 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	16.1%	6.0%	4.3%	.317	5.21	18.9%	9.4%	67	+0.37	3.89	343	56
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	56
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	581	55
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	110	19.0%	6.0%	1.23	4.43
Zach Plesac ('24)	2.4	96	18.1%	6.5%	1.43	4.31
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*
Tommy Boggs ('76-'85, 3 WAR*)	2.9	97	16.4%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.77*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*