Allan Winans — OGILVIE

Allan Winans P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.90

FIP3.96

K%18.8%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4545

SL+1.5 (19%)

SI (30%)

CU (3%)

CH-2.1 (33%)

FB-3.4 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$11M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	11	0	19	87	15	7	1	0%	1.8	11.7%	10.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.66	4.27	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	11	0	19	87	15	7	1	0%	1.8	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	1.1%	4.66	3.31	—
2019	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	43	174	40	14	2	0%	1.4	17.0%	9.5%	7.5%	1.6%	2.74	3.73	—
2019	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	43	174	40	14	2	0%	1.4	23.0%	8.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.74	2.82	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	47	179	45	15	3	0%	1.8	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	2.0%	1.72	3.71	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	47	179	45	15	3	0%	1.8	25.1%	8.4%	16.8%	1.7%	1.72	2.97	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	12	64	275	65	17	4	86%	4.6	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	1.9%	3.08	3.30	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	12	64	275	65	17	4	86%	4.6	23.6%	6.2%	17.5%	1.5%	3.08	2.68	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	159	647	147	43	16	79%	5.5	19.8%	6.1%	13.7%	2.7%	3.35	3.67	+2.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	159	647	147	43	16	79%	5.5	19.8%	6.1%	13.7%	2.7%	3.35	3.67	+2.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	159	647	147	43	16	79%	5.5	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.37	+3.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	3.6%	4.05	4.33	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	3.6%	4.05	4.33	+0.8
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	122	521	104	35	18	69%	4.7	20.0%	6.7%	13.2%	3.5%	4.05	4.17	+1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	22.0%	6.1%	15.8%	1.0%	2.24	2.59	+3.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	22.0%	6.1%	15.8%	1.0%	2.24	2.59	+3.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	109	443	111	30	6	79%	4.5	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	1.4%	2.24	2.60	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	9	49	228	44	14	10	82%	4.5	19.3%	6.1%	13.2%	4.4%	7.48	4.80	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	NYY	13	0	14	59	11	3	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	5.0%	13.8%	2.6%	3.90	3.96	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYY	147	0	154	650	119	36	19	0%	1.0	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	2.9%	4.10	4.22	+0.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYY	136	0	142	601	107	37	19	0%	1.0	17.8%	6.2%	11.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.48	+0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	NYY	124	0	131	552	95	37	19	0%	1.1	17.2%	6.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.57	4.74	-0.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	NYY	113	0	119	502	82	36	19	0%	1.1	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.7%	4.85	5.04	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYY	54	0	57	241	44	14	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	3.1%	4.21	4.33	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYY	74	0	78	329	59	20	11	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.45	4.60	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	NYY	84	0	88	372	64	25	13	0%	1.0	17.2%	6.7%	10.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.87	-0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	NYY	71	0	75	317	52	23	12	0%	1.1	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.9%	4.99	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		295	9	348	1489	263	96	54	3%	1.2	17.7%	6.4%	11.2%	3.7%	5.02	4.43	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		170	5	200	856	151	55	31	3%	1.2	17.7%	6.4%	11.2%	3.7%	5.02	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		160	72	563	2326	444	156	53	45%	3.5	19.1%	6.7%	12.4%	2.3%	3.12	3.60	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	26	200	826	158	56	19	45%	3.5	19.1%	6.7%	12.4%	2.3%	3.12	3.60	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Allan Winans (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	18.8%	5.0%	2.6%	—	4.47	17.8%	11.7%	427	+0.51	—	—	—
Josh A. Smith R 2018 · 2.91 FIP	30	SP-	2.91	21.7%	5.2%	1.8%	.337	4.28	19.5%	12.2%	157	+1.37	2.91	598	67
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	66
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	65
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	65
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	65
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	64
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	64
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	63
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	63
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	62
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	61
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	61
Doug Fister R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	14.0%	4.7%	3.1%	.302	4.33	16.2%	8.3%	352	+0.11	3.63	455	61
A.J. Morris R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	16.9%	6.9%	3.7%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	123	61
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	61
Logan Verrett R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	29	SP-	3.90	20.1%	3.3%	3.8%	.283	4.48	16.9%	12.4%	240	+0.58	3.81	550	60
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	59
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	59
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	58
Zach Neal R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	13.8%	3.6%	3.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	142	17.8%	6.0%	1.20	4.31
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20