Tekoah Roby
P
Springfield Cardinals
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%14.6%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 6 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 28.8% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 2.45 | 2.63 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 21 | 105 | 444 | 126 | 35 | 19 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 4.64 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 14 | 14 | 58 | 239 | 69 | 15 | 6 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 10 | 10 | 38 | 176 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.57 | 5.79 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 16 | 16 | 78 | 316 | 87 | 19 | 8 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.10 | 3.63 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | STL | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 21 | 8 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 21 | 8 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 54 | 20 | 8 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 19 | 8 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 45 | 18 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 38 | 17 | 7 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 67 | 302 | 1265 | 282 | 101 | 47 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 839 | 187 | 67 | 31 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tekoah Roby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.26 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 190 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 90 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 90 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 90 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 89 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 88 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 88 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 87 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Jarod Bayless R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.90 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .250 | 4.52 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 100 | +0.62 | 1.29 | 217 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 86 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 85 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 85 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .175 | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 195 | -0.11 | 3.66 | 242 | 85 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 85 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 85 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 85 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 85 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.63 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 142 | -0.18 | 3.97 | 252 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $12M | +$6M | ||