Tekoah Roby — OGILVIE

Tekoah Roby P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%22.8%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%16.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL5055

CMD5050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	1.5%	2.45	2.63	—
2021	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	38.9%	7.8%	31.1%	1.1%	2.45	1.46	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	4.8%	4.64	5.02	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	28.4%	7.9%	20.5%	4.3%	4.64	4.06	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.63	3.53	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.63	3.53	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	28.9%	6.3%	22.6%	2.5%	4.63	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	22.2%	8.5%	13.6%	5.7%	6.57	5.63	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.5%	6.1%	16.4%	3.0%	3.10	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.5%	6.1%	16.4%	3.0%	3.10	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	2.5%	3.10	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	STL	1	1	7	30	7	2	1	100%	7.0	22.8%	6.6%	16.2%	3.2%	4.14	4.14	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	109	461	109	30	15	100%	5.7	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	3.2%	4.09	4.05	+1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	121	511	124	34	16	100%	6.1	24.2%	6.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.05	4.01	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	504	121	34	16	100%	6.0	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	3.2%	4.06	4.06	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	489	117	34	16	100%	6.1	23.9%	6.9%	16.9%	3.3%	4.11	4.15	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	467	110	33	16	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.2%	16.5%	3.4%	4.21	4.28	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	439	102	33	16	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.6%	4.36	4.45	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	409	94	32	16	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.9%	4.54	4.66	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	378	85	31	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	4.1%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	347	76	30	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.3%	4.4%	4.98	5.13	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	53	15	7	100%	5.9	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	2.9%	3.97	3.93	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	86	24	10	100%	6.0	24.2%	6.6%	17.5%	2.9%	3.93	3.89	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	95	27	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	3.0%	3.94	3.94	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	100	29	13	100%	6.2	23.9%	6.9%	16.9%	3.1%	3.98	4.02	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	98	414	98	30	13	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.2%	16.5%	3.2%	4.08	4.15	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	92	30	13	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.22	4.31	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	86	29	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.51	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	79	29	13	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.8%	4.59	4.72	+0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	71	28	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.3%	4.1%	4.81	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	129	770	3251	759	240	108	100%	6.0	23.4%	7.4%	16.0%	3.3%	4.21	3.89	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	62	28	100%	6.0	23.4%	7.4%	16.0%	3.3%	4.21	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		68	67	302	1265	280	99	48	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	839	186	66	32	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tekoah Roby (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	22.8%	6.6%	3.2%	—	4.04	24.0%	17.3%	350	-0.10	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	89
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	84
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	80
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	80
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	80
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	79
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	79
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	79
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	79
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.92	16.8%	6.7%	145	+0.78	3.80	363	79
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	78
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	78
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	78
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	103	23.4%	7.2%	1.36	4.30
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36