Tekoah Roby
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
K%23.1%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%15.9%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 6 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 28.8% | 9.2% | 19.6% | 1.5% | 2.45 | 2.63 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 6 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 38.9% | 7.8% | 31.1% | 1.1% | 2.45 | 1.46 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 21 | 105 | 444 | 126 | 35 | 19 | 95% | 4.8 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 4.64 | 4.76 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 21 | 105 | 444 | 126 | 35 | 19 | 95% | 4.8 | 28.4% | 7.9% | 20.5% | 4.3% | 4.64 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 14 | 14 | 58 | 239 | 69 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 3.43 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 14 | 14 | 58 | 239 | 69 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.9% | 6.3% | 22.6% | 2.5% | 4.63 | 2.84 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 38 | 176 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 6.57 | 5.13 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 38 | 176 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 5.7% | 6.57 | 5.63 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 78 | 316 | 87 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 3.10 | 3.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 78 | 316 | 87 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 3.10 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 15.9% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 109 | 461 | 110 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 124 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 504 | 122 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 116 | 489 | 117 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 110 | 467 | 111 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.7% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 102 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 97 | 409 | 94 | 34 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 4.59 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 97 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 103 | 31 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 104 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 100 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 95 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 87 | 32 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 109 | 655 | 2766 | 657 | 209 | 93 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 3.91 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 64 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 67 | 302 | 1265 | 282 | 101 | 44 | 99% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.15 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 839 | 187 | 67 | 29 | 99% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tekoah Roby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.09 | 24.1% | 16.9% | 350 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 83 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 82 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 82 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 80 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 80 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 80 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 79 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 79 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 78 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 78 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 78 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.05 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .358 | 2.73 | 21.9% | 15.6% | 47 | -1.32 | 2.73 | 202 | 78 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 77 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 77 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 77 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 76 |
| Mitch White R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.58 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -0.99 | 2.49 | 626 | 76 |
| Luc Rennie R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .352 | 5.49 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 209 | +2.01 | 3.48 | 265 | 76 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.39 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .293 | 4.60 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 438 | 76 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 105 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.30 | 4.24 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Mike Minor ('22) | 6 | 126 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 1.44 | 4.38 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |