Tekoah Roby

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP45OGV rank#136ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	AASTL	14	14	58	4.63	2.84	28.9%	6.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.53
2024	22	MIX2 levels	10	10	38	6.57	5.63	22.2%	8.5%	—	K 17.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.81
2025	23	MIX2 levels	16	16	78	3.10	2.93	27.5%	6.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.58
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	2	2	12	4.08	4.08	23.4%	6.9%	0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSTL	10	10	60	3.94	3.91	24.0%	7.0%	1.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSTL	12	12	75	3.96	3.97	23.8%	7.1%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Ext$5M

CompsShumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Will Warren (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%23.4%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$10M		$31M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	1.5%	2.45	2.63	—
2021	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	6	6	22	90	35	7	1	100%	3.7	38.9%	7.8%	31.1%	1.1%	2.45	1.46	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	4.8%	4.64	5.02	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	21	105	444	126	35	19	95%	4.8	28.4%	7.9%	20.5%	4.3%	4.64	4.06	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	2.8%	4.63	3.53	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	58	239	69	15	6	100%	4.2	28.9%	6.3%	22.6%	2.5%	4.63	2.84	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	5.6%	6.57	5.81	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	38	176	39	15	10	100%	3.8	22.2%	8.5%	13.6%	5.7%	6.57	5.63	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.0%	3.10	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.0%	3.10	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	78	316	87	19	8	100%	4.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	2.5%	3.10	2.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	2	2	12	51	12	4	2	100%	6.0	23.4%	6.9%	16.5%	3.1%	4.08	4.08	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	125	527	126	37	16	100%	5.9	24.0%	7.0%	17.0%	3.1%	4.06	4.03	+2.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	114	479	114	34	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	3.1%	4.08	4.09	+1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	107	453	107	33	15	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	3.2%	4.14	4.18	+1.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	422	98	32	14	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.24	4.31	+1.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	91	385	89	30	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.49	+1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	345	78	28	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.8%	4.57	4.69	+0.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	302	67	26	12	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	4.0%	4.78	4.92	+0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	62	260	56	23	11	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.3%	5.01	5.17	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	61	18	7	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.0%	17.0%	2.9%	3.94	3.91	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	75	23	9	100%	6.2	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	2.9%	3.96	3.97	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	83	26	11	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	3.0%	4.02	4.06	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	82	26	11	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.11	4.18	+1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	77	26	11	100%	6.1	23.0%	7.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.25	4.35	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	73	308	70	25	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.5%	4.42	4.54	+0.6
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	65	274	61	24	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	3.8%	4.62	4.76	+0.4
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	52	22	10	100%	5.7	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.0%	4.84	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	575	2427	559	189	80	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.3%	3.3%	4.25	3.94	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	66	28	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.3%	3.3%	4.25	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		68	67	302	1265	281	99	48	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	839	187	66	32	99%	4.4	22.2%	7.9%	14.4%	3.8%	4.33	4.32	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 47 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.11 (+0.68)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.810	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.01%	—	×1.100	6.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.105	×1.200	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 31 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.24 (+0.63)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.860	19.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×0.900	5.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.869	×1.100	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 33 IPFIP 5.84 → 5.81 (−0.04)K% 21.4% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.810	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.100	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	6.49%	÷1.386	×1.200	5.62%

Result: FIP 5.84 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 5 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.43 (+0.91)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.180	16.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 58 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.53 (+0.70)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.87%	—	×0.810	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.28%	—	×1.100	6.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.080	×1.200	2.79%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 105 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.02 (+0.97)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.770	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.88%	—	×1.150	9.07%
HR / BF /BF	4.28%	÷1.123	×1.250	4.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 22 IPFIP 1.41 → 2.63 (+1.22)K% 38.9% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.89%	—	×0.740	28.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.180	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.996	×1.300	1.45%

Result: FIP 1.41 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tekoah Roby (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.10	23.8%	16.7%	345	+0.02	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	87
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	85
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	84
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	83
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	83
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	83
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	82
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	81
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	80
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	80
Kade McClure R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	21.0%	8.4%	3.7%	.329	4.38	19.3%	11.5%	110	-0.05	3.57	388	78
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	77
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	77
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	77
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	97	23.2%	7.6%	1.32	4.30
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*