Mason Adams

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	23	13	109	3.14	2.56	27.2%	6.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.67
2024	24	MIX2 levels	23	22	120	2.92	3.05	22.3%	5.7%	—	K 18.2% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.72
2026	26	MIX4 levels	23	21	91	3.66	3.77	24.5%	9.1%	1.8	K 22.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	17	17	102	4.28	4.37	21.3%	7.5%	1.2
2028PROJ81% MLB	28	MLBCOL	16	16	96	4.65	4.72	21.2%	7.7%	1.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	29	MLBCOL	15	15	90	4.78	4.87	20.7%	7.9%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.198First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$2M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%65

FB Velo30

xwOBA vs24

Form4.32 ERA (proj 4.28) · K 24.5% (proj 21.3%) · BB 8.5% (proj 7.5%) · last 60d · 25 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.28

FIP4.37

K%21.3%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$21M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.69	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	109	460	125	29	8	57%	4.7	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	2.5%	3.14	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	109	460	125	29	8	57%	4.7	27.2%	6.3%	20.9%	1.7%	3.14	2.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	18.2%	5.9%	12.3%	2.6%	2.92	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	18.2%	5.9%	12.3%	2.6%	2.92	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	22.3%	5.7%	16.6%	2.0%	2.92	3.05	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	91	375	92	34	11	91%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.4%	2.7%	3.66	3.83	+1.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	21	91	375	92	34	11	91%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.4%	2.7%	3.66	3.83	+1.7
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	21	91	375	92	34	11	91%	4.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.5%	2.9%	3.66	3.77	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	29	124	31	12	6	100%	4.8	25.0%	9.7%	15.3%	4.8%	4.03	4.89	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	17	17	102	431	92	32	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.5%	13.8%	3.2%	4.28	4.37	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	119	502	106	38	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.7%	13.6%	3.3%	4.38	4.45	+1.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	105	443	92	35	15	100%	6.2	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	3.4%	4.50	4.59	+1.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	93	394	79	32	14	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.7
2031	31	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	82	347	67	30	13	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	3.8%	4.86	5.00	+0.4
2032	32	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	301	56	27	12	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.6%	4.0%	5.10	5.25	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	96	405	86	31	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.7%	13.6%	3.8%	4.65	4.72	+1.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	79	30	15	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	3.9%	4.78	4.87	+0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	83	350	70	29	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	+0.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	61	27	14	100%	6.2	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	4.4%	5.18	5.32	+0.3
2032	32	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	51	24	13	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.6%	4.6%	5.44	5.59	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	438	1850	378	153	77	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.2%	4.90	4.71	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	173	70	35	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.2%	4.90	4.71	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		72	56	324	1343	272	98	34	78%	4.5	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.5%	3.25	3.71	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	35	200	829	168	61	21	78%	4.5	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.5%	3.25	3.71	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 49 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.37 (+0.25)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.62%	—	×0.860	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×0.900	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 11 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.26 (+1.20)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 103 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.61 (+0.79)K% 24.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.57%	—	×0.810	19.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×1.100	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.935	×1.200	2.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 17 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.28 (+0.05)K% 11.0% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.98%	—	×0.860	9.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×0.900	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.016	×1.100	1.32%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 78 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.64 (+1.26)K% 28.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.740	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.180	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.861	×1.300	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 13 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.45 (+0.48)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.31%	—	×1.100	13.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.013	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 18 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.05 (+1.01)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.770	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×1.150	5.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.017	×1.250	3.78%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.59	20.7%	12.8%	317	+0.22	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	82
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	76
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	76
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	75
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	75
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	73
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	73
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	73
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	71
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	70
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	69
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	69
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	69
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	91	20.6%	8.1%	1.37	4.54
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*