Mason Adams
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%17.8%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 1.69 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 1.74 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 13 | 109 | 460 | 125 | 29 | 8 | 57% | 4.7 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 3.14 | 3.88 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 13 | 109 | 460 | 125 | 29 | 8 | 57% | 4.7 | 27.2% | 6.3% | 20.9% | 1.7% | 3.14 | 2.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 120 | 493 | 110 | 28 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 2.92 | 3.84 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 120 | 493 | 110 | 28 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 11 | 11 | 38 | 154 | 37 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 103 | 428 | 86 | 27 | 13 | — | — | 20.1% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 17.8% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 106 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 104 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 128 | 541 | 99 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 92 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 112 | 474 | 84 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 45 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 65 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 72 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 73 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 71 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.92 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 73 | 433 | 1830 | 332 | 122 | 61 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 56 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 46 | 271 | 1122 | 221 | 79 | 32 | 77% | 4.5 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.88 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 34 | 200 | 828 | 163 | 58 | 23 | 77% | 4.5 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.41 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 400 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 85 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 85 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 84 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 84 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 82 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 81 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 81 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 81 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2029 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 80 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 80 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .315 | 4.80 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 188 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 738 | 80 |
| Donn Roach R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.62 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | .300 | 3.76 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 174 | +0.14 | 2.94 | 455 | 79 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 79 |
| Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 78 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 78 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 78 |
| Randy Bell R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 120 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 129 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Alex Cobb ('23) | 7 | 114 | 19.5% | 6.6% | 1.03 | 4.14 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Cole Irvin ('24) | 5 | 118 | 17.1% | 5.6% | 1.28 | 4.46 |