Mason Adams
P
Birmingham Barons
+1.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.7%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 23 | 13 | 109 | 460 | 125 | 29 | 8 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 3.14 | 3.66 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 23 | 22 | 120 | 493 | 110 | 28 | 10 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 3.76 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 103 | 40 | 14 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 106 | 41 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 107 | 41 | 15 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 104 | 40 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 100 | 40 | 15 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 95 | 39 | 14 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 90 | 38 | 14 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 85 | 37 | 14 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 79 | 36 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 73 | 35 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 67 | 33 | 13 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 35 | 233 | 968 | 188 | 65 | 24 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.09 | 3.68 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 30 | 200 | 831 | 161 | 56 | 21 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.09 | 3.68 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.34 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 360 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 92 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 91 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 88 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 88 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 85 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 84 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.61 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.39 | 3.22 | 221 | 84 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 84 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2023 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 83 |
| Michael Bowden R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 83 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.0 | $9M | +$7M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $12M | $48M | +$36M | ||