Mason Adams — OGILVIE

Mason Adams P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%19.2%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—60

CMD5060

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p8528.6%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.69	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	109	460	125	29	8	57%	4.7	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	2.5%	3.14	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	109	460	125	29	8	57%	4.7	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	2.5%	3.14	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	109	460	125	29	8	57%	4.7	27.2%	6.3%	20.9%	1.7%	3.14	2.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	18.1%	5.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.92	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	18.1%	5.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.92	3.72	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	493	110	28	10	96%	5.2	22.3%	5.7%	16.6%	2.0%	2.92	3.05	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	19	77	22	9	5	100%	4.7	28.6%	11.7%	16.9%	6.5%	3.38	5.67	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	21	19	81	328	83	31	10	90%	3.8	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.96	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	21	19	81	328	83	31	10	90%	3.8	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	COL	1	1	2	8	1	0	0	100%	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.04	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	COL	4	4	11	44	11	2	2	100%	2.8	25.0%	4.5%	20.5%	4.5%	2.45	4.06	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	COL	12	10	49	199	49	20	3	83%	4.1	24.6%	10.1%	14.6%	1.5%	3.67	3.12	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	COL	4	4	19	77	22	9	5	100%	4.7	28.6%	11.7%	16.9%	6.5%	3.38	5.73	-0.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	COL	4	4	19	77	22	9	5	100%	4.7	28.6%	11.7%	16.9%	6.5%	3.38	5.73	-0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	13	54	10	3	2	100%	6.4	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	2.8%	3.80	3.80	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	13	55	11	3	2	100%	6.5	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	3.3%	4.04	4.04	+0.2
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	93	382	93	34	12	—	—	24.4%	9.0%	15.5%	3.0%	3.51	3.94	+1.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	31	133	93	34	12	—	—	70.4%	25.8%	44.5%	8.9%	10.52	5.30	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	138	584	118	38	19	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.3%	4.43	4.45	+0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	134	566	114	39	19	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.47	4.51	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	128	541	108	38	19	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	3.5%	4.56	4.63	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	508	100	38	19	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	474	92	37	19	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.8%	11.6%	4.0%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	439	83	36	18	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	4.2%	5.09	5.23	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	131	553	112	36	21	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.9%	4.71	4.73	+0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	127	536	108	37	21	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	3.9%	4.76	4.80	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	122	515	103	37	21	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	4.1%	4.86	4.93	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	114	481	95	36	21	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.4%	12.3%	4.3%	5.01	5.11	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	107	452	87	35	21	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.8%	11.6%	4.6%	5.21	5.33	-0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	99	418	79	34	20	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	4.8%	5.44	5.58	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	732	3087	617	227	132	100%	5.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.6%	4.3%	4.92	4.69	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	62	36	100%	5.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.6%	4.3%	4.92	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		70	54	314	1296	262	96	33	77%	4.5	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.18	3.74	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	34	200	826	167	61	21	77%	4.5	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.18	3.74	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	17.8%	5.2%	2.8%	—	4.53	20.1%	13.3%	400	+0.33	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	85
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	84
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	82
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	80
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	80
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	20.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	4.11	16.2%	9.2%	260	-0.21	3.53	612	80
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	79
Jack Cushing R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SP-	5.04	19.8%	5.6%	5.3%	.315	4.37	18.8%	11.5%	156	-0.67	3.69	523	79
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	78
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	77
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	77
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	77
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	76
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	76
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	76
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	76
Chris Bassitt R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	26	SP-	3.02	19.4%	7.7%	1.1%	.287	3.81	19.3%	10.5%	208	+0.79	3.02	1,554	76
Ivan Pineyro R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	16.8%	6.2%	3.6%	.356	4.70	13.4%	5.2%	45	+0.22	3.53	422	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	125	19.4%	6.9%	1.37	4.59
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36