Alec Mills
P
Louisville Bats
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION13 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.55
FIP4.85
xFIP12.56
SIERA5.85
K%18.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.5%
IP14
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p1088.6
Whiff%
p1015.5%
K%
p1013.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.424
FB-0.9
SL-1.4
CH-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 21 | 113 | 472 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 18.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 3.02 | 2.81 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 27 | 23 | 129 | 527 | 126 | 35 | 10 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 3.33 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 7 | 7 | 28 | 107 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 10.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.65 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 25 | 143 | 602 | 131 | 48 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.73 | 3.78 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 22 | 140 | 599 | 138 | 40 | 22 | 21.1% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 11 | 62 | 252 | 46 | 19 | 13 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.48 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 35 | 23 | 131 | 568 | 97 | 35 | 17 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 6 | 30 | 141 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 14.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.71 | 5.85 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 13 | 9 | 32 | 149 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 12.0% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 6.47 | 6.23 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 13 | — | 13 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 147 | 808 | 3417 | 628 | 226 | 98 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 845 | 155 | 56 | 24 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alec Mills (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.18 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 20 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 81 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .248 | 7.10 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +3.26 | 2.85 | 141 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 75 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 75 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 74 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 71 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.52 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.68 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.16 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.59 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 192 | 70 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 70 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 70 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.85 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .325 | 5.28 | 8.7% | 0.1% | 13 | +1.43 | 2.54 | 135 | 70 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 69 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.42 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .331 | 5.73 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 99 | +1.31 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 69 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 69 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.80 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 455 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.