Alec Mills
P
Louisville Bats
+0.0
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP12.56
SIERA5.85
K%22.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.8%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1088.6
Whiff%
p1015.5%
K%
p1013.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.424
FB-0.9
SL-1.4
CH-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 21 | 113 | 472 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 18.1% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 3.02 | 2.53 | +3.6 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 27 | 23 | 129 | 527 | 126 | 35 | 10 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 3.37 | +2.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 7 | 7 | 28 | 107 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 10.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.65 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 25 | 143 | 602 | 131 | 48 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 4.73 | 3.71 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 22 | 140 | 599 | 138 | 40 | 22 | 21.1% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 11 | 62 | 252 | 46 | 19 | 13 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.48 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 35 | 23 | 131 | 568 | 97 | 35 | 17 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 4.07 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 6 | 30 | 141 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 14.7% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 7.71 | 6.06 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 13 | 9 | 32 | 149 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 12.0% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 6.47 | 6.39 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 18 | — | 18 | 77 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 147 | 808 | 3417 | 628 | 226 | 99 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.97 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 845 | 155 | 56 | 24 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alec Mills (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.00 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 20 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 290 | 80 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.70 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 605 | 72 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.71 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 192 | 72 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 72 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Scott Carroll R 2024 · 5.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.63 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 4.9% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 248 | 70 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 69 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.66 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 4.1% | .288 | 3.62 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 135 | -1.04 | 2.89 | 453 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 68 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.28 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .331 | 5.50 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 99 | +1.22 | 2.06 | 1,046 | 68 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 68 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 68 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 68 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.15 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .280 | 4.71 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.56 | 2.87 | 1,148 | 68 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 260 | 67 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.