Hagen Smith — OGILVIE

Hagen Smith P Charlotte Knights

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2030

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA3.94

FIP4.19

K%31.9%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD3040

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p9036.2%

p9037.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.243

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.4	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$29M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.06	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	33.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.6%	3.57	3.32	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.34	3.67	+0.9
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.34	3.67	+0.9
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	35.4%	15.2%	20.2%	2.5%	3.34	3.40	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	1	28	110	41	16	1	6%	1.6	37.3%	14.5%	22.7%	0.9%	1.29	2.35	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	17	17	90	380	121	62	9	100%	5.3	31.9%	16.2%	15.7%	2.5%	3.94	4.19	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	108	457	144	65	11	100%	5.7	31.5%	14.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.96	3.98	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	122	513	160	66	13	100%	5.8	31.2%	12.9%	18.3%	2.5%	3.90	3.85	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	129	543	168	68	14	100%	6.1	30.9%	12.6%	18.4%	2.5%	3.88	3.85	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	552	169	69	14	100%	5.9	30.7%	12.5%	18.2%	2.6%	3.89	3.90	+1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	552	169	70	15	100%	5.9	30.6%	12.7%	17.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.98	+1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	125	527	158	68	15	100%	5.9	30.0%	12.9%	17.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.14	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	117	495	145	65	15	100%	5.9	29.3%	13.2%	16.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.35	+0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	73	308	97	44	8	100%	5.6	31.5%	14.2%	17.3%	2.5%	3.98	4.00	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	97	410	128	53	10	100%	5.7	31.2%	12.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.92	3.87	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	111	469	145	59	12	100%	6.2	30.9%	12.6%	18.4%	2.6%	3.90	3.87	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	117	494	152	62	13	100%	5.8	30.7%	12.5%	18.2%	2.6%	3.91	3.92	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	120	507	155	64	14	100%	6.0	30.6%	12.7%	17.9%	2.7%	3.98	4.01	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	116	490	147	63	14	100%	6.1	30.0%	12.9%	17.1%	2.9%	4.10	4.17	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	110	464	136	61	14	100%	6.1	29.3%	13.2%	16.1%	3.1%	4.27	4.38	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	126	773	3254	1001	422	87	88%	5.4	30.8%	13.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.91	3.61	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	842	259	109	23	88%	5.4	30.8%	13.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.91	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		61	38	170	714	210	115	17	62%	2.8	29.5%	16.1%	13.4%	2.4%	3.45	3.99	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	45	200	842	248	135	21	62%	2.8	29.5%	16.1%	13.4%	2.4%	3.45	3.99	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hagen Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	31.9%	16.2%	2.5%	—	3.89	31.2%	18.0%	358	-0.30	—	—	—
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	75
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	72
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	66
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	65
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	65
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.59	22.7%	11.1%	206	+0.97	2.87	286	64
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	64
DL Hall L 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	31.5%	14.0%	2.8%	.343	4.09	22.2%	11.0%	190	+0.35	3.49	548	63
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	63
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	62
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	60
Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	24.8%	15.0%	0.9%	.241	4.92	17.6%	4.4%	121	+1.53	2.73	388	60
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	60
Darwinzon Hernández L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	22	SW	3.71	29.7%	18.7%	1.4%	.328	4.27	29.5%	11.8%	73	+0.56	3.42	458	60
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	59
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	59
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	59
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	59
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	58
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	109	30.9%	13.3%	1.01	3.90
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22