Hagen Smith — OGILVIE

Hagen Smith P Charlotte Knights

+0.3 WAR

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2030

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%25.4%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%11.0%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

OFP—50

K†6060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	—	—	—	3.52	—	—
2025	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	27.4%	19.3%	2.5%	3.57	4.58	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Charlotte Knights	4	4	13	52	19	5	1	32.2%	10.1%	2.1%	1.38	2.82	+0.3
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	14	14	76	320	81	46	9	25.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.71	4.71	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	89	372	100	51	10	26.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.22	4.43	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	CWS	14	14	78	331	86	42	9	25.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.43	+0.6
2028	24	MLB	CWS	15	15	80	340	89	39	10	26.3%	11.4%	2.8%	4.35	4.24	+0.8
2029	25	MLB	CWS	17	17	94	395	104	42	11	26.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.21	4.12	+1.2
2030	26	MLB	CWS	18	18	100	424	112	44	12	26.5%	10.5%	2.8%	4.15	4.10	+1.4
2031	27	MLB	CWS	19	19	104	438	116	46	12	26.5%	10.5%	2.8%	4.13	4.11	+1.4
2032	28	MLB	CWS	19	19	104	440	116	46	12	26.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+1.4
2033	29	MLB	CWS	19	19	102	430	113	46	12	26.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.17	4.19	+1.3
2034	30	MLB	CWS	18	18	99	417	109	45	12	26.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.22	4.25	+1.2
2035	31	MLB	CWS	17	17	95	402	104	44	12	25.9%	10.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.32	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	CWS	17	17	91	386	99	42	12	25.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.41	+0.8
2037	33	MLB	CWS	16	16	87	369	93	41	12	25.3%	11.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.51	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	CWS	15	15	83	350	87	40	12	25.0%	11.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
2039	35	MLB	CWS	14	14	78	330	88	36	11	26.6%	10.8%	3.4%	4.50	4.47	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			27	27	96	404	111	69	9	27.5%	17.0%	2.2%	3.27	4.15	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—			56	56	200	839	230	143	19	27.5%	17.0%	2.2%	3.27	4.15	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hagen Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	25.4%	14.3%	2.8%	—	4.25	26.2%	14.8%	252	-0.46	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.10	4.04	158	88
Andrew Walling L 2027 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.66	22.0%	9.8%	95	-0.54	3.14	151	88
Jimmy Burnette L 2027 · 3.60 FIP	23	SW	3.60	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.99	22.3%	5.5%	101	+0.39	3.06	158	87
Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SW	3.66	25.9%	13.2%	2.0%	.254	4.19	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.53	3.66	111	86
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2028 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.60	24.1%	7.7%	60	-1.01	3.60	136	84
Quintin Torres-Costa L 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	25.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.340	2.51	24.8%	12.9%	55	-1.45	2.51	248	84
Tommy Vail L 2029 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	27.5%	15.3%	1.8%	.237	4.86	19.7%	3.3%	81	+1.17	3.69	151	82
Garrett Irvin L 2028 · 4.43 FIP	24	SW	4.43	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.34	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.09	4.34	110	82
Larson Kindreich L 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	24.3%	18.6%	1.5%	.275	4.97	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.74	4.16	214	82
Danny Wilkinson L 2026 · 3.87 FIP	22	SW	3.87	31.0%	20.1%	1.5%	.327	4.30	25.5%	4.8%	44	+0.43	3.87	101	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	23.3%	11.3%	2.4%	.286	4.86	18.1%	2.5%	99	+1.00	3.86	176	82
Brent Killam L 2027 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.72	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.41	4.31	121	81
Carlos Rey L 2026 · 4.47 FIP	22	SW	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	3.90	22.2%	3.4%	53	-0.57	3.90	110	81
Dante Biasi L 2027 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.64	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.73	4.91	224	81
Brent Headrick L 2027 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.62	24.2%	16.7%	227	+0.28	3.39	335	80
Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	80
Chazz Martinez L 2027 · 3.77 FIP	23	SW	3.77	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.47	20.6%	7.7%	125	-0.30	3.15	189	80
Liam Norris L 2025 · 4.00 FIP	21	SW	4.00	30.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.296	8.58	23.3%	-13.8%	27	+4.58	4.00	184	80
Seth Clark L 2027 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	22.5%	15.0%	2.0%	.287	5.22	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.22	128	80
Kyle Dohy L 2026 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	25.4%	19.7%	1.7%	.361	3.29	28.3%	14.8%	54	-1.09	2.70	167	80

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+1.4	$13M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+1.4	$13M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.4	$13M	+$7M
Totals		$16M		$55M	+$39M