Hagen Smith — OGILVIE

Hagen Smith P Charlotte Knights

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%29.0%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD3040

K†6570

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p9036.4%

p9038.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.253

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$12M		$23M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.06	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	33.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.6%	3.57	3.32	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	1	20	76	29	10	1	8%	1.7	38.2%	13.2%	25.0%	1.3%	0.45	2.35	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	15	78	328	116	49	9	47%	2.4	30.9%	13.8%	17.1%	3.0%	3.33	3.87	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	15	78	328	116	49	9	47%	2.4	30.9%	13.8%	17.1%	3.0%	3.33	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	CWS	20	14	58	252	87	39	8	70%	2.9	34.5%	15.5%	19.0%	3.2%	4.32	3.89	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	CWS	12	1	20	76	29	10	1	8%	1.7	38.2%	13.2%	25.0%	1.3%	0.45	2.27	+0.6
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	CWS	12	1	20	76	29	10	1	8%	1.7	38.2%	13.2%	25.0%	1.3%	0.45	2.27	+0.6
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CWS	8	0	8	34	10	6	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	18.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
ROS	22	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	10	6	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	18.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	87	362	126	55	10	—	—	34.8%	15.3%	19.5%	2.8%	3.44	3.93	+0.9
FULL	22	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	28	119	126	55	10	—	—	106.0%	46.5%	59.5%	8.4%	10.58	4.65	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	93	394	119	61	10	100%	5.5	30.2%	15.5%	14.7%	2.6%	4.45	4.34	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	96	404	122	56	11	100%	5.6	30.1%	13.8%	16.3%	2.6%	4.25	4.12	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	97	409	123	52	11	100%	5.7	30.1%	12.7%	17.4%	2.6%	4.10	3.99	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	97	409	123	51	11	100%	6.1	30.1%	12.5%	17.6%	2.6%	4.02	3.97	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	403	121	51	11	100%	6.0	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	2.7%	4.01	4.01	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	92	391	117	50	11	100%	6.2	30.0%	12.8%	17.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.09	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	88	373	111	48	11	100%	5.9	29.7%	13.0%	16.7%	2.9%	4.16	4.22	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	83	350	103	47	11	100%	5.9	29.4%	13.3%	16.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.40	+0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	89	376	113	58	10	100%	5.2	30.2%	15.5%	14.7%	2.7%	4.48	4.37	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	91	384	116	53	10	100%	5.7	30.1%	13.8%	16.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.15	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	92	388	117	49	10	100%	5.8	30.1%	12.7%	17.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.02	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	92	388	117	49	10	100%	6.1	30.1%	12.5%	17.6%	2.7%	4.05	4.00	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	91	384	116	48	10	100%	6.1	30.1%	12.6%	17.5%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	88	372	111	47	11	100%	5.9	30.0%	12.8%	17.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.12	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	84	355	105	46	11	100%	6.0	29.7%	13.0%	16.7%	3.0%	4.19	4.25	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	98	44	11	100%	6.1	29.4%	13.3%	16.1%	3.2%	4.34	4.43	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	122	733	3087	931	412	85	87%	5.2	30.2%	13.3%	16.8%	2.8%	4.10	3.75	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	842	254	112	23	87%	5.2	30.2%	13.3%	16.8%	2.8%	4.10	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		55	38	162	680	196	109	17	69%	2.9	28.8%	16.0%	12.8%	2.6%	3.45	4.10	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	47	200	841	242	134	22	69%	2.9	28.8%	16.0%	12.8%	2.6%	3.45	4.10	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hagen Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	28.3%	19.3%	2.8%	—	4.15	30.1%	16.1%	286	-0.94	—	—	—
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.24	24.9%	6.8%	152	-0.42	2.97	282	80
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	73
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	67
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	66
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	66
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2022 · 4.15 FIP	22	SW	4.15	25.7%	18.4%	1.6%	.317	6.79	19.3%	-7.6%	36	+2.64	2.58	155	66
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	65
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	65
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	63
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	63
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	62
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	61
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	61
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	61
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	59
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	59
Kyle Harrison L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	27.6%	12.3%	4.3%	.280	3.91	24.1%	16.2%	347	-0.78	3.12	659	58
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	58
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	57
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	29.8%	13.9%	1.06	4.27
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97