Hagen Smith

P Charlotte Knights

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	A+CWS	3	3	8	3.52	2.06	21.2%	6.1%	—	K 21.2% · BB 6.1% · FIP 2.08
2025	21	AACWS	20	20	76	3.57	3.32	33.9%	17.6%	—	K 27.4% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.55
2026	22	MIX2 levels	38	15	86	3.34	3.40	35.4%	15.2%	1.2	K 32.0% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	11	11	61	3.93	4.18	32.1%	16.3%	0.9
2028PROJ80% MLB	24	MLBCWS	13	13	74	3.98	3.99	31.7%	14.2%	1.3
2029PROJ87% MLB	25	MLBCWS	14	14	83	3.92	3.86	31.4%	12.9%	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.297First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo40

Form1.59 ERA (proj 3.93) · K 39.1% (proj 32.1%) · BB 9.4% (proj 16.3%) ▲▲ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.9 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 50%

CompsTommy Vail (age 25) · Jason Blanchard (age 25) · Larson Kindreich (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 113

ERA3.93

FIP4.18

K%32.1%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$54M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p9036.2%

p9037.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.243

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.297 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+1.7	$11M	+$9M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
Totals		$15M		$53M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.06	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	2.4%	3.57	4.55	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	33.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.6%	3.57	3.32	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.34	3.67	+0.9
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.34	3.67	+0.9
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	15	86	362	128	55	9	39%	2.3	35.4%	15.2%	20.2%	2.5%	3.34	3.40	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	1	28	110	41	16	1	6%	1.6	37.3%	14.5%	22.7%	0.9%	1.29	2.35	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	11	11	61	258	83	42	6	100%	5.5	32.1%	16.3%	15.8%	2.5%	3.93	4.18	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	92	388	123	55	10	100%	5.7	31.7%	14.2%	17.5%	2.5%	3.96	3.97	+1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	403	126	52	10	100%	6.0	31.4%	12.9%	18.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.84	+1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	98	416	129	52	11	100%	6.2	31.1%	12.6%	18.5%	2.5%	3.87	3.84	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	98	415	128	52	11	100%	6.2	30.9%	12.6%	18.3%	2.6%	3.89	3.89	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	97	409	126	52	11	100%	6.0	30.7%	12.7%	18.0%	2.7%	3.94	3.97	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	377	114	49	11	100%	6.0	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.13	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	80	339	100	45	10	100%	6.2	29.4%	13.2%	16.2%	3.0%	4.23	4.34	+1.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	74	312	99	44	8	100%	5.7	31.7%	14.2%	17.5%	2.5%	3.98	3.99	+1.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	83	350	110	45	9	100%	5.9	31.4%	12.9%	18.4%	2.6%	3.92	3.86	+1.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	89	376	117	47	10	100%	5.9	31.1%	12.6%	18.5%	2.6%	3.89	3.86	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	91	384	119	48	10	100%	6.1	30.9%	12.6%	18.3%	2.6%	3.91	3.91	+1.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	90	380	117	48	10	100%	6.0	30.7%	12.7%	18.0%	2.7%	3.97	4.00	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	85	359	108	46	10	100%	6.1	30.1%	12.9%	17.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.16	+1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	95	42	10	100%	5.8	29.4%	13.2%	16.2%	3.1%	4.26	4.37	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	100	616	2592	805	338	68	85%	5.3	31.0%	13.1%	18.0%	2.6%	3.88	3.58	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	842	261	110	22	85%	5.3	31.0%	13.1%	18.0%	2.6%	3.88	3.58	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		61	38	170	714	210	115	17	62%	2.8	29.5%	16.1%	13.4%	2.4%	3.45	3.99	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	45	200	842	248	135	21	62%	2.8	29.5%	16.1%	13.4%	2.4%	3.45	3.99	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 58 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.27 (+0.39)K% 34.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.52%	—	×0.860	29.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.48%	—	×0.900	13.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 76 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.55 (+1.22)K% 33.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.86%	—	×0.810	27.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.55%	—	×1.100	19.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.784	×1.200	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 8 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.60 (+0.53)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.770	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.150	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.817	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hagen Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	3.88	31.4%	18.2%	286	-0.30	—	—	—
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	74
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	72
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	65
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	64
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	64
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.59	22.7%	11.1%	206	+0.97	2.87	286	64
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	64
DL Hall L 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	31.5%	14.0%	2.8%	.343	4.09	22.2%	11.0%	190	+0.35	3.49	548	63
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	62
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	62
Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	24.8%	15.0%	0.9%	.241	4.92	17.6%	4.4%	121	+1.53	2.73	388	60
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	60
Darwinzon Hernández L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	22	SW	3.71	29.7%	18.7%	1.4%	.328	4.27	29.5%	11.8%	73	+0.56	3.42	458	59
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	59
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	59
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	59
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	59
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	58
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	57
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	85	31.2%	13.4%	1.00	3.87
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22