Hagen Smith — OGILVIE

Hagen Smith P Charlotte Knights

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%28.3%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD3040

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.08	—
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	3	3	8	33	7	2	0	100%	2.6	21.2%	6.1%	15.2%	0.0%	3.52	2.06	—
2025	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	27.4%	19.3%	8.1%	3.3%	3.57	5.05	—
2025	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	20	20	76	319	108	56	5	100%	3.8	33.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.6%	3.57	3.32	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Charlotte Knights	14	14	52	227	77	36	8	100%	3.7	29.9%	16.7%	13.2%	3.9%	4.67	4.82	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	12	12	65	274	77	52	8	100%	5.4	28.3%	18.9%	9.5%	3.1%	5.17	5.17	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	1	1	6	25	7	5	1	100%	6.0	28.3%	18.9%	9.5%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	117	501	154	88	16	—	—	30.9%	17.5%	13.4%	3.3%	4.95	5.01	+0.5
2026 FULL	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	6	27	8	5	1	—	—	28.3%	18.9%	9.5%	3.1%	5.20	4.82	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CWS	24	24	133	560	159	90	17	100%	5.5	28.4%	16.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.77	+1.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	29	29	162	684	195	97	21	100%	5.6	28.5%	14.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.52	+1.7
2029	25	MLB	CWS	30	30	175	739	211	96	22	100%	5.8	28.6%	13.0%	15.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.35	+2.1
2030	26	MLB	CWS	29	29	175	739	211	95	22	100%	6.0	28.6%	12.8%	15.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.33	+2.2
2031	27	MLB	CWS	29	29	172	728	208	94	22	100%	5.9	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	3.0%	4.38	4.37	+2.1
2032	28	MLB	CWS	28	28	167	706	201	92	22	100%	6.0	28.5%	13.1%	15.4%	3.1%	4.42	4.45	+1.9
2033	29	MLB	CWS	27	27	160	674	190	90	22	100%	5.9	28.2%	13.3%	15.0%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	+1.5
2034	30	MLB	CWS	25	25	150	634	177	86	22	100%	6.0	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	CWS	23	23	140	591	162	82	22	100%	6.1	27.5%	13.9%	13.6%	3.7%	4.84	4.96	+0.7
2036	32	MLB	CWS	22	22	130	547	148	78	22	100%	5.9	27.0%	14.3%	12.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.19	+0.3
2037	33	MLB	CWS	20	20	119	502	133	74	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	14.8%	11.8%	4.2%	5.28	5.44	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	CWS	13	13	72	304	86	49	9	100%	5.5	28.4%	16.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.93	4.80	+0.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	21	21	117	494	141	70	15	100%	5.6	28.5%	14.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.55	+1.2
2029	25	MLB	CWS	25	25	145	612	175	80	19	100%	5.8	28.6%	13.0%	15.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.38	+1.7
2030	26	MLB	CWS	26	26	154	650	186	83	20	100%	5.9	28.6%	12.8%	15.8%	3.0%	4.42	4.36	+1.9
2031	27	MLB	CWS	26	26	157	663	190	86	20	100%	6.0	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.40	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	CWS	26	26	154	650	185	85	21	100%	5.9	28.5%	13.1%	15.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.48	+1.7
2033	29	MLB	CWS	25	25	149	629	178	84	21	100%	6.0	28.2%	13.3%	15.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+1.4
2034	30	MLB	CWS	24	24	141	595	166	81	21	100%	5.9	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.69	4.79	+1.0
2035	31	MLB	CWS	22	22	133	562	154	78	21	100%	6.0	27.5%	13.9%	13.6%	3.8%	4.88	5.00	+0.6
2036	32	MLB	CWS	20	20	123	519	140	74	21	100%	6.2	27.0%	14.3%	12.7%	4.0%	5.09	5.23	+0.2
2037	33	MLB	CWS	19	19	113	477	127	71	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	14.8%	11.8%	4.3%	5.32	5.48	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			248	248	1464	6180	1735	844	210	100%	5.9	28.1%	13.7%	14.4%	3.4%	4.69	4.32	+18.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	237	115	29	100%	5.9	28.1%	13.7%	14.4%	3.4%	4.69	4.32	+2.5
Career	—			37	37	135	579	162	101	19	100%	3.7	28.0%	17.5%	10.5%	3.3%	3.99	4.79	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—			55	55	200	856	240	150	29	100%	3.7	28.0%	17.5%	10.5%	3.3%	3.99	4.79	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hagen Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	28.3%	18.9%	3.1%	—	4.53	28.5%	14.3%	470	-0.64	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	87
Xavier Rivas L 2027 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	23.2%	16.4%	3.0%	.229	5.34	28.7%	15.4%	64	+0.47	4.87	150	79
Braden Davis L 2026 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	25.3%	19.4%	1.2%	.244	5.30	21.5%	5.9%	73	+1.22	4.08	183	77
Johnny King L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	20	SP	4.22	23.7%	15.4%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	129	77
Luis De La Torre L 2026 · 5.47 FIP	22	SP	5.47	22.7%	20.1%	3.2%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	2.69	173	77
Brent Killam L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	29.1%	14.5%	3.4%	.284	7.12	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.77	4.35	121	76
Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	76
Caden Grice L 2026 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	76
Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.8%	19.9%	2.0%	.270	4.85	21.2%	7.8%	312	-0.03	4.20	458	75
Dameivi Tineo L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP	4.51	25.0%	19.7%	1.9%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	167	74
Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	73
Brent Headrick L 2027 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	22.9%	14.0%	2.9%	.383	4.63	24.2%	16.7%	227	+0.11	2.40	382	72
Ken Waldichuk L 2027 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	28.7%	12.5%	3.1%	.279	4.19	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.22	3.42	432	72
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	72
Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	72
Herick Hernandez L 2026 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP	4.74	26.3%	17.3%	3.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	148	71
John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	71
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP	4.67	19.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.266	3.89	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.78	2.81	146	71
Larson Kindreich L 2027 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	24.3%	18.6%	1.4%	.275	5.03	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.85	4.15	214	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	148	28.1%	14.0%	1.28	4.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Francisco Liriano ('19)	5	130	22.3%	11.2%	1.09	4.30