Darwinzon Hernández
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 255 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 113
ERA4.26
FIP4.11
K%26.8%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%16.1%
ROS IP119
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p9031.8%
K%
p9029.7%
xwOBA vs
p400.323
FB-3.7
SL-5.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 16 | 13 | 65 | 279 | 66 | 30 | 0 | 81% | 4.1 | 16.1% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 1.10 | 3.44 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 16 | 13 | 65 | 279 | 66 | 30 | 0 | 81% | 4.1 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 1.10 | 2.46 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 23 | 23 | 103 | 450 | 116 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 4.01 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 23 | 23 | 103 | 450 | 116 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 1.8% | 4.01 | 3.28 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 107 | 471 | 134 | 66 | 1 | 82% | 3.8 | 21.7% | 15.7% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 3.53 | 3.43 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 107 | 471 | 134 | 66 | 1 | 82% | 3.8 | 28.5% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 0.2% | 3.53 | 2.57 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 13 | 88 | 412 | 136 | 73 | 5 | 28% | 1.9 | 29.7% | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 4.83 | 3.72 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 13 | 88 | 412 | 136 | 73 | 5 | 28% | 1.9 | 33.0% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 1.2% | 4.83 | 3.24 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.5% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 2.89 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.5% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 2.86 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 55 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.7% | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 3.29 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 55 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.6% | 17.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 3.29 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 7 | 40 | 196 | 60 | 35 | 7 | 23% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 18.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 8.39 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 7 | 40 | 196 | 60 | 35 | 7 | 23% | 1.3 | 30.6% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 8.39 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 27 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 17.3% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 2.96 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 27 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 2.96 | 3.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 121 | 0 | 127 | 536 | 144 | 58 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 114 | 0 | 119 | 504 | 129 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 106 | 0 | 111 | 470 | 116 | 51 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 1 | 191 | 856 | 244 | 120 | 24 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.00 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 899 | 256 | 126 | 25 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 226 | 79 | 480 | 2149 | 514 | 342 | 25 | 35% | 2.1 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.75 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 33 | 200 | 896 | 214 | 143 | 11 | 35% | 2.1 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darwinzon Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 26.8% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.44 | 25.2% | 14.3% | 231 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 66 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 64 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 63 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 60 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 60 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.66 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .270 | 2.43 | 28.2% | 22.7% | 45 | -1.23 | 2.43 | 453 | 60 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.06 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.14 | 2.29 | 202 | 60 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 59 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 59 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 58 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .284 | 3.31 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 124 | -0.68 | 2.93 | 478 | 58 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 58 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.19 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 0.9% | .275 | 4.80 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 50 | +1.61 | 3.19 | 564 | 58 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 57 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 57 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 57 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 57 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 57 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 56 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.17 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 764 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 119 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 1.16 | 4.33 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |