Darwinzon Hernández
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.2
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 255 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP7.13
SIERA5.42
K%23.8%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.9%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL2020
CMD5555
K†6565
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p9031.8%
K%
p9029.7%
xwOBA vs
p400.323
FB-3.7
SL-5.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 16 | 13 | 65 | 279 | 66 | 30 | 0 | 16.1% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 1.10 | 3.44 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 23 | 23 | 103 | 450 | 116 | 49 | 8 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 4.01 | 3.93 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 28 | 23 | 107 | 471 | 134 | 66 | 1 | 21.7% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 3.53 | 3.42 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 46 | 13 | 88 | 412 | 136 | 73 | 5 | 29.7% | 18.7% | 1.4% | 4.83 | 3.71 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 13 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 49 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 55 | 32 | 5 | 29.7% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 7 | 40 | 196 | 60 | 35 | 7 | 29.3% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 8.39 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 27 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 28.3% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 2.96 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | — | 23 | 96 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 27.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 22 | — | 22 | 93 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 26.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 226 | 79 | 480 | 2149 | 514 | 342 | 27 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.78 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 33 | 200 | 896 | 214 | 143 | 11 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.78 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darwinzon Hernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 27.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.19 | 26.3% | 15.6% | 22 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 83 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 78 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 77 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 76 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 75 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 74 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.01 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.3% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.19 | 2.34 | 202 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 73 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 31.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.36 | 29.0% | 8.9% | 86 | +1.20 | 3.16 | 205 | 72 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.74 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.72 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.02 | 2.70 | 655 | 71 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2027 · 2.89 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.89 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.6% | .256 | 4.17 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.28 | 2.89 | 391 | 70 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.18 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .271 | 3.39 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 113 | +0.21 | 2.43 | 420 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 69 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .205 | 4.18 | 27.1% | 18.4% | 55 | +0.62 | 3.44 | 522 | 69 |
| Sam Moll L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.64 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .310 | 2.91 | 25.1% | 16.8% | 143 | -1.73 | 2.35 | 451 | 69 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 69 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .220 | 4.27 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.08 | 3.19 | 137 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.