Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | 15 | 10 | 61 | 233 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 67% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 3.8% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 0.73 | 2.73 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | 15 | 10 | 61 | 233 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 67% | 4.1 | 26.2% | 3.0% | 23.2% | 0.9% | 0.73 | 1.88 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs 1 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 204 | 44 | 24 | 2 | 82% | 4.3 | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.0% | 1.4% | 3.61 | 4.48 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs 1 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 204 | 44 | 24 | 2 | 82% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 1.0% | 3.61 | 3.31 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 5 | 38 | 153 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 38% | 2.9 | 27.3% | 9.0% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 3.47 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 5 | 38 | 153 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 38% | 2.9 | 37.3% | 10.5% | 26.8% | 3.9% | 3.52 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 5 | 69 | 308 | 106 | 51 | 7 | 22% | 3.0 | 25.5% | 19.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 5 | 69 | 308 | 106 | 51 | 7 | 22% | 3.0 | 34.4% | 16.6% | 17.9% | 2.3% | 4.43 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 8 | 63 | 264 | 87 | 34 | 2 | 50% | 4.0 | 24.8% | 15.0% | 9.8% | 0.8% | 2.42 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 8 | 63 | 264 | 87 | 34 | 2 | 50% | 4.0 | 33.0% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.8% | 2.42 | 2.37 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 21 | 11 | 80 | 352 | 92 | 39 | 11 | 52% | 3.8 | 21.2% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 21 | 11 | 80 | 352 | 92 | 39 | 11 | 52% | 3.8 | 26.1% | 11.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 13 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 24 | 25 | 2 | 46% | 3.2 | 10.7% | 15.1% | -4.4% | 1.2% | 4.57 | 4.76 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 13 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 24 | 25 | 2 | 46% | 3.2 | 13.2% | 13.7% | -0.5% | 1.1% | 4.57 | 4.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 36 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 16.6% | -2.3% | 2.8% | 5.92 | 5.92 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 38 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 15.9% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 5.79 | 5.80 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 38 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.7% | 15.6% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 5.74 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 14 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 15.9% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 5.79 | 5.80 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.7% | 15.6% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 5.74 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 15.7% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 5.76 | 5.40 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 133 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 15.7% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 5.76 | 5.40 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 54 | 400 | 1696 | 351 | 223 | 39 | 48% | 3.6 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 4.26 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 27 | 200 | 847 | 175 | 111 | 19 | 48% | 3.6 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 3.55 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Angel Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.92 | 14.3% | 16.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.79 | 15.4% | -0.3% | 115 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 77 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 77 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 73 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2024 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.58 | 15.2% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 165 | 73 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 72 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 71 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 69 |
| Wyatt Crowell L 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.01 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 2.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 198 | 69 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 69 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 68 |
| Erik Tolman L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.73 | 18.7% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .244 | 4.30 | 28.7% | 10.4% | 20 | -0.43 | 3.08 | 135 | 67 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 67 |
| Austin Krob L 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 67 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.65 | 10.4% | 27.2% | 1.8% | .222 | 3.59 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 194 | -3.06 | 3.00 | 368 | 66 |
| Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.88 | 18.9% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .325 | 6.13 | 18.0% | 3.6% | 86 | +1.25 | 3.58 | 378 | 66 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2025 · 6.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.26 | 15.8% | 18.5% | 3.9% | .198 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 326 | 66 |
| Zach King L 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 278 | 65 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.06 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 145 | 65 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 65 |
| Eric Stout L 2026 · 7.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 7.00 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 6.4% | .299 | 5.02 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 83 | -1.98 | 3.35 | 411 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 15.0% | 16.0% | 1.12 | 5.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |