Rory Fox

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#313ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	130	4.36	3.27	23.7%	6.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.47	4.47	18.3%	7.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYY	7	7	42	4.49	4.45	19.4%	7.0%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYY	10	10	61	4.42	4.38	20.0%	6.9%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsGrant Rogers (age 23) · Blake Beers (age 24) · Will Ethridge (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%18.3%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.5%	4.36	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	99	416	81	29	12	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	91	385	77	27	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	90	378	77	26	11	100%	6.4	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	87	367	75	26	11	100%	6.2	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	83	349	71	25	11	100%	6.4	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.37	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	77	324	65	24	11	100%	6.4	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	70	293	58	23	10	100%	6.3	19.6%	7.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.68	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	62	262	50	21	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.89	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	55	231	43	19	9	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	42	177	34	12	6	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	61	258	52	18	8	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.38	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	71	300	61	21	9	100%	6.5	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.36	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	64	22	10	100%	6.2	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.40	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	63	22	10	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	3.3%	4.45	4.48	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	70	296	59	22	10	100%	6.4	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.5%	4.56	4.63	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	64	270	53	21	10	100%	6.4	19.6%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.72	4.81	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	58	245	47	20	10	100%	6.4	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	3.9%	4.91	5.03	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	40	18	9	100%	6.4	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	4.2%	5.12	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	564	2383	473	175	82	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.24	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	168	62	29	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		23	21	130	553	103	39	17	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	32	200	851	158	59	27	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 82 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.53 (+1.05)K% 25.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.770	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.150	7.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 48 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.45 (+0.56)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.50%	—	×0.810	16.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.50%	—	×1.100	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rory Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.29	19.9%	13.0%	279	-0.18	—	—	—
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	90
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	90
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	90
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	89
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	88
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	88
Jose Acevedo R 2001 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.3%	7.7%	4.1%	.280	4.83	16.9%	11.0%	208	-0.10	3.43	368	87
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	87
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	86
Dave Bush R 2004 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	15.5%	5.6%	2.7%	.268	4.06	16.6%	12.0%	533	+0.10	3.65	1,141	86
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	86
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	86
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.9%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	86
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	85
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	85
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	85
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	85
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	85
Jonathan Pettibone R 2013 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	15.1%	8.0%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	100	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	80	19.7%	7.3%	1.22	4.45
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Paul Lindblad ('65-'78, 6 WAR*)	6.1	93	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.22*	4.07*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65