Rory Fox — OGILVIE

Rory Fox P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%20.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$28M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYY	15	14	82	353	90	23	11	93%	5.5	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	3.1%	4.59	3.48	—
2026	22	AA RAW	NYY	8	7	48	200	41	11	3	88%	6.0	20.5%	5.5%	15.0%	1.5%	3.97	2.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	132	558	118	41	16	100%	6.3	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.25	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	135	572	125	41	17	100%	6.2	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	137	579	128	41	17	100%	6.2	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	137	579	130	41	17	100%	6.2	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.09	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	135	570	128	41	17	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.12	4.12	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	131	553	123	40	17	100%	6.2	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	3.1%	4.17	4.21	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	125	528	116	40	17	100%	6.2	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.2%	4.27	4.34	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	118	496	107	39	17	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.8%	13.8%	3.4%	4.42	4.52	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	110	463	98	38	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.6%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	101	428	89	37	17	100%	6.3	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	3.9%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	93	393	80	35	16	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	5.20	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	65	274	58	20	9	100%	6.5	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.36	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	95	401	87	29	13	100%	6.3	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.27	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	111	469	104	33	15	100%	6.2	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	3.1%	4.26	4.22	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	120	507	113	36	16	100%	6.3	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.20	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	122	515	115	37	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	3.2%	4.23	4.23	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	121	511	114	37	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	3.3%	4.28	4.32	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	116	490	108	37	17	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.4%	4.39	4.46	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	110	464	101	36	17	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.8%	13.8%	3.6%	4.55	4.65	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	104	439	93	36	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.9%	4.73	4.85	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	84	35	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	4.2%	4.95	5.09	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	88	372	75	34	17	100%	6.3	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	4.4%	5.19	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	186	1149	4850	1054	371	169	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.5%	4.48	4.14	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	184	65	29	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.5%	4.48	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		23	21	130	553	103	39	17	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	32	200	851	158	59	27	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rory Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	20.3%	7.7%	3.0%	—	4.17	21.7%	14.5%	405	-0.22	—	—	—
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	85
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	84
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	82
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	80
Kade McClure R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP	3.57	17.3%	9.2%	1.4%	.336	4.29	17.6%	10.2%	227	+0.72	3.57	388	79
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	77
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	77
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	76
Adonis Uceta R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	15.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.367	3.20	20.3%	10.9%	125	-0.88	2.68	253	76
Dailyn Martinez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	16.8%	6.3%	2.0%	.384	3.59	11.3%	1.4%	60	-0.01	3.59	127	76
Ryan Olson R 2017 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	14.2%	5.0%	1.2%	.324	4.29	16.2%	6.3%	67	+1.10	3.19	102	76
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	76
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	75
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	75
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	75
Chris Beck R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	24	SP	3.22	15.6%	6.5%	1.1%	.278	4.93	15.7%	5.2%	217	+1.71	3.22	313	75
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	75
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	74
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	115	21.7%	7.6%	1.25	4.35
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13