Blake Beers
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 109
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%19.8%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 9.00 | 12.39 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 9.00 | 14.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 93 | 400 | 100 | 31 | 11 | 94% | 5.5 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.08 | 4.66 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 93 | 400 | 100 | 31 | 11 | 94% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 115 | 515 | 109 | 47 | 18 | 84% | 4.6 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.36 | 5.39 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 115 | 515 | 109 | 47 | 18 | 84% | 4.6 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 6.36 | 4.47 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 150 | 627 | 139 | 49 | 21 | 86% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 3.91 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 150 | 627 | 139 | 49 | 21 | 86% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 15 | 67 | 295 | 65 | 23 | 8 | 68% | 3.0 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 15 | 67 | 295 | 65 | 23 | 8 | 68% | 3.0 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 64 | 268 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.59 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 79 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 77 | 425 | 1842 | 331 | 169 | 74 | 83% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.94 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 868 | 156 | 79 | 35 | 83% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Beers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.95 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 118 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 84 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 84 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 81 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 78 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 78 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 77 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 76 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 75 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 75 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 75 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 73 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 73 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 73 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 73 |
| Markus Solbach R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 73 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 72 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 72 |
| Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.92 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% | .336 | 3.91 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 83 | -1.01 | 2.28 | 446 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.36 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |