Blake Beers

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	25	21	115	6.36	4.47	21.2%	9.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.32
2024	26	MIX2 levels	28	24	150	3.91	4.05	22.2%	7.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.89
2025	27	MIX3 levels	22	15	67	4.18	3.75	22.0%	7.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.32
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBOAK	1	1	1	4.69	4.69	19.1%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBOAK	3	3	16	4.76	4.83	19.2%	8.9%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBOAK	4	4	23	4.89	5.00	19.1%	9.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%19.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	100%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	12.39	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	100%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	14.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	93	400	100	31	11	94%	5.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.6%	4.08	4.61	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	93	400	100	31	11	94%	5.5	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.8%	4.08	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	115	515	109	47	18	84%	4.6	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	4.3%	6.36	5.32	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	115	515	109	47	18	84%	4.6	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	3.5%	6.36	4.47	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	4.1%	3.91	4.89	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	4.1%	3.91	4.89	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	3.3%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.32	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.32	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	22.0%	7.8%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	3.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	OAK	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.1%	8.6%	10.6%	3.2%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	51	215	41	19	7	100%	6.4	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.76	4.83	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	45	189	36	18	7	100%	6.4	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.6%	4.89	5.00	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	3	3	16	68	13	6	2	100%	5.3	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	23	97	19	9	3	100%	5.8	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	3.6%	4.89	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	39	164	31	15	6	100%	6.5	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.55	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	77	31	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		93	77	425	1842	330	165	72	83%	4.6	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	3.9%	4.66	4.88	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	868	155	78	34	83%	4.6	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	3.9%	4.66	4.88	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 29 IPFIP 4.47 → 4.48 (+0.01)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.860	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×0.900	6.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.41%	÷1.183	×1.100	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 30 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.14 (+0.57)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.810	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.100	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.043	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Athletics · 8 IPFIP 1.29 → 2.08 (+0.79)K% 25.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.680	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×1.250	3.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 130 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.67 (+0.92)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.11%	—	×0.810	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.39%	—	×1.100	8.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.940	×1.200	3.87%

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 20 IPFIP 5.70 → 6.05 (+0.35)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.17%	—	×0.860	14.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.10%	—	×0.900	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	5.05%	÷1.001	×1.100	5.55%

Result: FIP 5.70 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 81 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.96 (+1.03)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.79%	—	×0.810	16.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.28%	÷0.957	×1.200	5.37%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 34 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.63 (+0.68)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.770	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.150	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.209	×1.250	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 53 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.45 (+0.89)K% 20.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.770	15.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.150	11.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷0.944	×1.250	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Beers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	19.1%	8.6%	3.2%	—	4.91	19.2%	10.1%	96	+0.22	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	84
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	80
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	79
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	75
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	75
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	74
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	73
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	73
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	72
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	72
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	71
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	70
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	70
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	70
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	70
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	19.1%	8.9%	1.30	4.77
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*