Blake Beers — OGILVIE

Blake Beers P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%18.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	100%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	12.39	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	100%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	9.00	14.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	93	400	100	31	11	94%	5.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	3.6%	4.08	4.61	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	93	400	100	31	11	94%	5.5	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.8%	4.08	3.49	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	115	515	109	47	18	84%	4.6	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	4.3%	6.36	5.32	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	115	515	109	47	18	84%	4.6	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	4.3%	6.36	5.32	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	115	515	109	47	18	84%	4.6	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	3.5%	6.36	4.47	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	4.1%	3.91	4.90	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	4.1%	3.91	4.90	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	150	627	139	49	21	86%	5.3	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	3.3%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.35	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.35	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	15	67	295	65	23	8	68%	3.0	22.0%	7.8%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	OAK	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.4%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	61	256	47	23	9	100%	6.1	18.4%	8.9%	9.5%	3.5%	4.94	4.99	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	57	241	44	22	9	100%	5.7	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.7%	5.03	5.12	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	OAK	3	3	19	80	15	7	3	100%	6.3	18.4%	8.9%	9.5%	3.5%	4.94	4.99	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	29	122	23	11	5	100%	5.8	18.5%	9.3%	9.2%	3.7%	5.03	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	48	204	38	19	7	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.1%	9.3%	3.6%	4.99	4.69	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	79	29	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.1%	9.3%	3.6%	4.99	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		93	77	425	1842	328	165	72	83%	4.6	17.8%	9.0%	8.9%	3.9%	4.66	4.89	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	868	155	78	34	83%	4.6	17.8%	9.0%	8.9%	3.9%	4.66	4.89	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Beers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	18.2%	8.7%	3.4%	—	5.05	18.5%	9.4%	118	+0.13	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	86
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	83
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	81
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	79
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	79
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	79
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	77
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	74
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	74
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	74
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	73
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	73
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	73
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	73
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	73
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	18.4%	8.9%	1.37	4.96
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63