Mitchell Kilkenny
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 206 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%22.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 113 | 461 | 107 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 3.27 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 113 | 461 | 107 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.2% | 4.8% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 3.06 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 24 | 102 | 454 | 76 | 34 | 23 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.56 | 6.39 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 24 | 102 | 454 | 76 | 34 | 23 | 100% | 4.2 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 5.56 | 5.54 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 13 | 0 | 22 | 109 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 6.04 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 13 | 0 | 22 | 109 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 6.04 | 2.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | COL | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.12 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 45 | 237 | 1024 | 157 | 73 | 38 | 78% | 4.1 | 15.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.73 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 863 | 132 | 61 | 32 | 78% | 4.1 | 15.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitchell Kilkenny (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 76 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 74 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 73 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 72 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 70 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 70 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 69 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 66 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 66 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 65 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 65 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 64 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2024 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.13 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 1.1% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 137 | 64 |
| Cody Anderson R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 63 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 63 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 61 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 61 |
| Chuck King R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 60 |