Mason Miller — OGILVIE

Mason Miller P San Diego Padres

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5445vR 36

ERA1.51

FIP1.37

K%46.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%37.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL4040

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90101.3

Whiff%

p9047.5%

p9048.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.181

SL+6.3 (54%)

FB+0.7 (45%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.6	$12M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
2029	Arb-4	$11M	+1.2	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$39M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.52	—
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.93	—
2022	23	MIX	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	27.3%	11.5%	15.8%	1.5%	3.08	3.08	+0.9
2023	24	MIX	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	34.9%	10.0%	24.9%	2.4%	3.08	2.76	+1.1
2024	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.5%	2.49	1.87	+2.1
2024	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.4%	2.49	1.93	+2.1
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.3%	2.63	2.02	+1.9
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	2.05	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	38	0	40	149	72	13	0	0%	1.0	48.3%	8.7%	39.6%	0.0%	0.91	0.12	+2.1
ROS	27	MLB	SD	19	0	20	86	40	7	2	0%	1.1	46.5%	8.7%	37.7%	2.0%	1.51	1.37	+0.8
ROS	27	MLB	SD	19	0	20	84	39	7	2	0%	1.1	46.5%	8.7%	37.7%	1.9%	1.48	1.34	+0.8
2026 TOT	27	MLB	SD	—	—	60	235	112	20	2	—	—	47.6%	8.7%	38.9%	0.7%	1.11	0.55	+2.8
2026 FULL	27	MLB	SD	—	—	60	253	112	20	2	—	—	44.2%	8.1%	36.1%	0.7%	1.10	0.75	+2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SD	55	0	58	246	113	22	5	0%	1.1	45.9%	8.9%	37.0%	2.1%	1.93	1.90	+1.8
2028	29	MLB	SD	53	0	56	235	106	21	5	0%	1.0	45.3%	9.1%	36.2%	2.3%	2.01	2.07	+1.6
2029	30	MLB	SD	50	0	52	221	99	21	6	0%	1.0	44.6%	9.4%	35.2%	2.5%	2.17	2.27	+1.4
2030	31	MLB	SD	46	0	49	206	90	20	6	0%	1.1	43.9%	9.7%	34.1%	2.7%	2.37	2.50	+1.2
2031	32	MLB	SD	43	0	45	190	82	19	6	0%	1.0	43.1%	10.1%	32.9%	3.0%	2.60	2.76	+0.9
2027	28	MLB	SD	52	0	55	232	107	21	5	0%	1.1	45.9%	8.9%	37.0%	2.1%	1.89	1.86	+1.7
2028	29	MLB	SD	50	0	53	224	101	20	5	0%	1.1	45.3%	9.1%	36.2%	2.2%	1.97	2.03	+1.6
2029	30	MLB	SD	48	0	50	211	94	20	5	0%	1.0	44.6%	9.4%	35.2%	2.4%	2.12	2.22	+1.4
2030	31	MLB	SD	44	0	46	194	85	19	5	0%	1.0	43.9%	9.7%	34.1%	2.6%	2.32	2.45	+1.1
2031	32	MLB	SD	41	0	43	182	78	18	5	0%	1.0	43.1%	10.1%	32.9%	2.9%	2.54	2.70	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			418	6	467	1900	823	179	40	1%	1.1	43.3%	9.4%	33.9%	2.1%	2.24	1.78	+19.8
/ 200 IP	—			179	3	200	814	352	77	17	1%	1.1	43.3%	9.4%	33.9%	2.1%	2.24	1.78	+8.5
Career	—			179	21	239	915	371	87	18	12%	1.3	40.6%	9.5%	31.0%	1.9%	2.45	1.95	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—			150	18	200	766	311	73	15	12%	1.3	40.6%	9.5%	31.0%	1.9%	2.45	1.95	+8.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.25	44.9%	8.7%	2.7%	—	2.07	45.3%	36.2%	166	-0.18	—	—	—
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	27	SU	2.39	28.8%	4.8%	2.0%	.321	3.73	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.34	2.39	332	65
Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.14 FIP	27	SU	2.14	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.01	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.58	308	63
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 1.52 FIP	27	SU	1.52	37.5%	6.2%	1.5%	.350	3.18	32.7%	22.7%	109	+1.66	1.52	452	63
Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.00 FIP	27	SU	2.00	37.6%	9.9%	1.5%	.330	3.28	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.28	1.98	196	63
David Robertson R 2029 · 2.24 FIP	30	SU	2.24	34.4%	4.4%	2.7%	.267	2.65	32.6%	23.9%	200	+0.41	1.99	494	62
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.86 FIP	29	SU	1.86	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.39	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.53	1.86	238	62
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.62 FIP	27	SU	2.62	36.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.272	2.09	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.53	0.89	599	62
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 1.97 FIP	27	SU	1.97	40.0%	4.0%	3.2%	.255	2.03	37.2%	33.2%	209	+0.06	0.98	663	61
Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 1.86 FIP	27	SU	1.86	28.5%	5.7%	0.8%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	119	61
Luke Jackson R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	33.7%	7.0%	3.2%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.66	2.67	580	60
Matt Brash R 2026 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	29.1%	8.0%	2.1%	.306	2.11	23.4%	15.6%	17	-0.71	1.92	309	60
Michael King R 2026 · 1.96 FIP	27	SU	1.96	33.2%	7.0%	1.4%	.276	3.31	27.6%	19.6%	352	+1.35	1.96	948	59
Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.65 FIP	25	SU	2.65	32.4%	9.4%	2.0%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	59
Mike Broadway R 2027 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.47	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.73	1.74	195	57
Adam Ottavino R 2029 · 2.35 FIP	30	SU	2.35	32.7%	6.5%	2.1%	.242	2.94	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.59	1.99	488	57
Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	27	SU	3.19	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.21	29.4%	19.2%	157	+1.02	1.58	295	57
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	27	SU	3.33	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.47	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.14	1.75	526	56
Nick Mears R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	27	SU	3.33	29.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.358	3.99	20.1%	13.0%	76	+0.66	3.33	273	56
AJ Ramos R 2027 · 2.89 FIP	28	SU	2.89	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.43	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.54	2.55	266	56
Josh Lueke R 2029 · 2.50 FIP	30	SU	2.50	30.0%	4.1%	2.6%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	107	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	53	44.7%	9.3%	0.98	2.23
Dellin Betances ('18)	4	71	40.5%	11.9%	0.67	2.48
Andrew Miller ('21)	6	54	35.9%	8.3%	0.97	2.73
David Robertson ('24)	7	66	32.1%	9.6%	0.85	2.91
Ken Giles ('19)	5	60	32.6%	7.6%	0.75	2.89
Corey Knebel ('22)	6	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Liam Hendriks ('22)	8	57	32.7%	5.7%	0.85	2.94