Mason Miller — OGILVIE

Mason Miller P San Diego Padres

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 4941vR 33

ERA1.75

FIP1.59

K%46.8%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%37.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL4040

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90101.5

Whiff%

p9045.7%

p9048.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.189

SL+6.3 (50%)

FB+0.7 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+2.0	$15M	+$10M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.8	$12M	+$6M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$14M		$28M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.52	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.93	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	27.3%	11.5%	15.8%	1.6%	3.08	3.12	+1.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	27.3%	11.5%	15.8%	1.6%	3.08	3.12	+1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	34.9%	10.0%	24.9%	2.4%	3.08	2.76	+1.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.6%	2.49	1.94	+2.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.6%	2.49	1.94	+2.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.4%	2.49	1.93	+2.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	1.90	+2.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	1.90	+2.0
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	2.05	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			185	6	223	864	363	82	15	3%	1.2	42.0%	9.5%	32.5%	1.7%	2.34	1.82	+7.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	63	242	117	22	2	0%	1.1	48.3%	9.1%	39.3%	0.8%	1.14	0.61	+3.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	63	242	117	22	2	0%	1.1	48.3%	9.1%	39.3%	0.8%	1.14	0.61	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	SD	60	0	63	242	117	22	2	0%	1.1	48.3%	9.1%	39.3%	0.8%	1.14	0.62	+3.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SD	60	0	63	242	117	22	2	0%	1.1	48.3%	9.1%	39.3%	0.8%	1.14	0.62	+3.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SD	5	0	5	23	11	2	1	0%	1.1	46.8%	8.9%	37.9%	2.4%	1.75	1.59	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SD	5	0	5	21	10	2	1	0%	1.0	46.8%	8.9%	37.9%	2.5%	1.79	1.63	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	69	265	128	24	3	—	—	48.2%	9.1%	39.1%	1.0%	1.19	0.69	+3.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	69	290	128	24	3	—	—	44.0%	8.3%	35.7%	0.9%	1.19	0.92	+3.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	55	0	58	246	114	22	5	0%	1.1	46.2%	9.1%	37.1%	2.1%	1.92	1.89	+2.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	56	235	107	22	5	0%	1.0	45.6%	9.3%	36.3%	2.3%	2.00	2.05	+1.8
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	52	0	55	232	107	21	5	0%	1.1	46.2%	9.1%	37.1%	2.2%	1.95	1.92	+2.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	53	224	102	21	5	0%	1.1	45.6%	9.3%	36.3%	2.3%	2.03	2.08	+1.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		293	6	337	1343	583	126	26	2%	1.1	43.4%	9.4%	34.1%	1.9%	2.22	1.68	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	4	200	798	346	75	15	2%	1.1	43.4%	9.4%	34.1%	1.9%	2.22	1.68	+7.0
Career	—	MLE		201	21	263	1008	416	96	20	10%	1.3	41.3%	9.5%	31.8%	2.0%	2.36	1.90	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	16	200	768	317	73	15	10%	1.3	41.3%	9.5%	31.8%	2.0%	2.36	1.90	+6.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.25	44.8%	8.8%	2.6%	—	1.97	45.9%	36.7%	114	-0.28	—	—	—
Matt Brash R 2023 · 1.91 FIP	25	SU	1.91	34.7%	9.4%	1.0%	.367	2.61	27.6%	19.7%	64	+0.70	1.91	309	69
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	67
Tommy Kahnle R 2017 · 1.53 FIP	27	SU	1.53	37.5%	6.2%	1.5%	.350	3.20	32.7%	22.7%	109	+1.67	1.53	458	65
Pedro Báez R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	27	SU	2.29	28.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.321	3.57	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.28	2.29	332	65
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	64
Luke Jackson R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	33.7%	7.0%	3.2%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.66	2.67	580	63
Michael King R 2022 · 1.97 FIP	27	SU	1.97	33.2%	7.0%	1.4%	.276	3.20	27.6%	19.6%	352	+1.23	1.97	1,014	62
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.90	238	62
Craig Kimbrel R 2015 · 2.48 FIP	27	SU	2.48	36.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.272	2.13	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.35	0.94	601	62
David Robertson R 2015 · 2.26 FIP	30	SU	2.26	34.4%	4.4%	2.8%	.267	2.67	32.6%	23.9%	200	+0.41	2.00	494	62
Kenley Jansen R 2015 · 1.81 FIP	27	SU	1.81	40.0%	4.0%	2.9%	.255	1.88	37.2%	33.2%	209	+0.07	0.89	681	61
Aaron Barrett R 2015 · 1.86 FIP	27	SU	1.86	28.5%	5.7%	0.8%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	119	60
Cody Allen R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	27	SU	3.18	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.17	29.4%	19.2%	157	+0.99	1.58	295	60
Mychal Givens R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.48	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.20	1.77	526	60
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	59
Diego Castillo R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	27	SU	3.37	32.2%	6.4%	4.0%	.231	3.95	20.9%	10.1%	139	+0.58	2.38	524	58
Pete Fairbanks R 2021 · 2.54 FIP	27	SU	2.54	29.6%	10.6%	1.1%	.342	2.33	33.2%	25.0%	115	-0.21	0.50	463	58
Alex Colomé R 2016 · 2.73 FIP	27	SU	2.73	31.4%	6.2%	2.7%	.274	3.28	22.8%	15.9%	196	+0.55	2.72	530	58
Mike Broadway R 2015 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	57
Tyler Thornburg R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	27	SU	2.56	34.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.224	6.00	21.0%	8.8%	78	+3.44	2.56	301	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	45.5%	9.1%	0.90	2.11
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05