Mason Miller — OGILVIE

Mason Miller P San Diego Padres

+1.8 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.8 · 2027

ERA2.82

FIP2.82

xFIP-0.73

SIERA-0.15

K%38.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%28.5%

IP60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2027

K†8080

SL+6.3 (53%)

FB+0.7 (46%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	—	—	—	1.50	—	—
2022	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	27.3%	11.5%	1.5%	3.08	3.05	+1.1
2024	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	41.8%	7.2%	2.5%	2.49	1.86	+2.3
2025	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	44.4%	11.1%	1.9%	2.63	1.79	+2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	8	0	8	27	20	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	SD	51	—	51	217	90	21	6	41.3%	9.7%	2.6%	2.61	2.63	+1.4
2026 Total	27	MLB	SD	—	—	60	244	110	22	6	44.9%	9.0%	2.3%	2.25	2.26	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	SD	59	—	59	249	112	23	6	45.1%	9.3%	2.5%	2.18	2.20	+1.8
2028	29	MLB	SD	58	—	58	243	109	23	6	44.6%	9.4%	2.5%	2.24	2.27	+1.8
2029	30	MLB	SD	56	—	56	236	104	22	6	44.1%	9.5%	2.6%	2.32	2.37	+1.6
2030	31	MLB	SD	54	—	54	228	99	22	6	43.5%	9.6%	2.6%	2.41	2.47	+1.5
2031	32	MLB	SD	52	—	52	218	94	21	6	42.9%	9.8%	2.7%	2.52	2.59	+1.4
2032	33	MLB	SD	49	—	49	209	88	21	6	42.2%	10.0%	2.8%	2.64	2.71	+1.3
2033	34	MLB	SD	47	—	47	198	82	20	6	41.5%	10.2%	2.9%	2.77	2.85	+1.1
2034	35	MLB	SD	44	—	44	187	76	19	6	40.8%	10.4%	3.0%	2.91	3.00	+1.0
2035	36	MLB	SD	41	—	41	174	70	19	5	40.0%	10.6%	3.1%	3.06	3.17	+0.8
2036	37	MLB	SD	38	—	38	162	63	18	5	39.2%	10.9%	3.3%	3.23	3.34	+0.7
2037	38	MLB	SD	35	—	35	149	57	17	5	38.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.41	3.53	+0.6
2038	39	MLB	SD	32	—	32	137	51	16	5	37.5%	11.5%	3.5%	3.59	3.71	+0.5
2039	40	MLB	SD	30	—	30	126	46	15	5	36.6%	11.8%	3.7%	3.78	3.90	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			149	21	208	793	319	75	17	40.2%	9.5%	2.1%	2.64	2.06	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—			143	20	200	764	307	72	16	40.2%	9.5%	2.1%	2.64	2.06	+7.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.63	41.3%	9.7%	2.6%	—	2.28	44.6%	35.2%	172	-0.35	—	—	—
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	65
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.29 FIP	27	SW	2.29	28.8%	4.8%	1.9%	.321	3.69	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.40	2.29	332	65
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 1.82 FIP	27	SW	1.82	40.0%	4.0%	2.9%	.255	1.92	37.2%	33.2%	209	+0.10	0.97	640	64
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 1.53 FIP	27	SW	1.53	37.5%	6.2%	1.5%	.350	3.24	32.7%	22.7%	109	+1.71	1.53	433	63
David Robertson R 2029 · 2.17 FIP	30	SW	2.17	34.4%	4.4%	2.6%	.267	2.67	32.6%	23.9%	200	+0.50	2.00	494	63
Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.07 FIP	27	SU	2.07	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.08	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.01	1.64	196	62
Luke Jackson R 2026 · 2.79 FIP	27	SW	2.79	33.7%	7.0%	3.0%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.76	2.73	561	61
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.85 FIP	29	SW	1.85	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.33	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.48	1.85	238	61
Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	59
Jaden Hill R 2024 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	59
Michael King R 2026 · 1.98 FIP	27	SW	1.98	33.2%	7.0%	1.4%	.276	3.10	27.6%	19.6%	352	+1.12	1.98	862	59
Matt Brash R 2026 · 2.73 FIP	27	SU	2.73	29.1%	8.0%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	1.90	292	59
Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 1.82 FIP	27	SU	1.82	28.5%	5.7%	0.7%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	1.82	119	58
Cody Allen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	27	SW	2.99	33.0%	9.5%	2.7%	.229	4.21	29.4%	19.2%	157	+1.22	1.58	295	58
Nick Mears R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	27	SW	3.06	29.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.358	3.65	20.8%	15.4%	57	+0.59	3.06	254	58
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	27	SW	3.31	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.55	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.24	1.77	526	57
AJ Ramos R 2027 · 2.90 FIP	28	SW	2.90	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.48	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.58	2.55	266	57
Mike Broadway R 2027 · 1.74 FIP	28	SW	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	56
Diego Castillo R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	27	SW	3.40	32.2%	6.4%	4.0%	.231	4.04	21.6%	9.6%	139	+0.64	2.37	524	56
Adam Ottavino R 2029 · 2.61 FIP	30	SU	2.61	32.7%	6.5%	2.6%	.242	3.08	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.47	2.15	488	56

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$13M	+$9M
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+1.8	$15M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$15M	+1.7	$14M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$29M		$42M	+$13M