Mason Miller

P San Diego Padres

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBOakland Athle…	55	65	2.49	1.93	41.8%	7.2%	2.1
2025	26	MLBSD	60	62	2.63	2.05	44.4%	11.1%	1.9
2026	27	MLBSD	66	70	1.67	1.04	47.4%	9.2%	3.0
2027PROJ	28	MLBSD	63	66	1.88	1.69	48.3%	8.6%	2.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSD	57	60	1.89	1.88	47.7%	8.8%	2.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSD	54	57	2.02	2.10	47.0%	9.1%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.965First FA2030

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$7M2029Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form3.33 ERA (proj 1.88) · K 44.0% (proj 48.3%) · BB 11.0% (proj 8.6%) ▼▼ last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsDellin Betances (age 28) · Ken Giles (age 28) · Joel Hanrahan (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5345vR 37

ERA1.88

FIP1.69

K%48.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%39.8%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL4040

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90101.4

Whiff%

p9045.3%

p9047.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.201

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+2.6	$21M	+$17M
2028	Arb-2	$7M	+2.2	$16M	+$10M
2029	Arb-3	$9M	+1.9	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$20M		$51M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.52	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	2	6	24	9	3	0	67%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	1.50	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.93	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	14	50	25	3	3	100%	2.3	50.0%	6.0%	44.0%	6.0%	3.86	2.96	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	27.3%	11.5%	15.8%	1.6%	3.08	3.12	+1.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	13	53	209	73	21	5	76%	3.1	34.9%	10.0%	24.9%	2.4%	3.08	2.76	+1.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.6%	2.49	1.94	+2.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.6%	2.49	1.94	+2.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	55	0	65	249	104	18	6	0%	1.2	41.8%	7.2%	34.5%	2.4%	2.49	1.93	+2.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	1.90	+2.0
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	1.90	+2.0
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	60	0	62	234	104	26	5	0%	1.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	2.1%	2.63	2.05	+1.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	66	0	70	272	129	25	3	0%	1.1	47.4%	9.2%	38.2%	1.1%	1.67	0.85	+3.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	66	0	70	272	129	25	3	0%	1.1	47.4%	9.2%	38.2%	1.1%	1.67	0.85	+3.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	66	0	70	272	129	25	3	0%	1.1	47.4%	9.2%	38.2%	1.1%	1.67	1.04	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			191	6	230	894	375	85	16	3%	1.2	41.9%	9.5%	32.4%	1.8%	2.47	1.85	+7.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SD	63	0	66	279	135	24	6	0%	1.0	48.3%	8.6%	39.8%	2.2%	1.88	1.69	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	267	128	23	6	0%	1.1	47.7%	8.8%	38.9%	2.4%	1.86	1.85	+2.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	57	0	60	251	118	23	6	0%	1.0	47.0%	9.1%	37.9%	2.6%	1.98	2.06	+2.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	57	0	60	253	121	22	6	0%	1.1	47.7%	8.8%	38.9%	2.4%	1.89	1.88	+2.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	54	0	57	241	113	22	6	0%	1.1	47.0%	9.1%	37.9%	2.6%	2.02	2.10	+1.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	6	347	1387	608	129	28	2%	1.1	43.9%	9.3%	34.6%	2.0%	2.29	1.70	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	3	200	800	351	74	16	2%	1.1	43.9%	9.3%	34.6%	2.0%	2.29	1.70	+6.9
Career	—	MLE		207	21	269	1038	428	99	21	10%	1.3	41.2%	9.5%	31.7%	2.0%	2.47	1.92	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	16	200	771	318	74	15	10%	1.3	41.2%	9.5%	31.7%	2.0%	2.47	1.92	+6.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 12 IPFIP -0.62 → -0.06 (+0.56)K% 54.8% → 47.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.76%	—	×0.860	47.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP -0.62 → -0.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 7 IPFIP 1.96 → 3.76 (+1.80)K% 50.0% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.770	38.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.944	×1.250	5.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Athletics · 6 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.93 (+1.41)K% 37.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.680	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.250	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	1.69	48.3%	8.6%	2.2%	—	1.95	47.4%	38.4%	123	+0.26	—	—	—
Dellin Betances R 2016 · 1.59 FIP	28	SU	1.59	42.1%	9.4%	1.6%	.350	2.26	40.4%	27.8%	126	+0.67	1.21	398	68
Ken Giles R 2019 · 2.02 FIP	28	SU	2.02	39.9%	7.7%	2.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	0.92	414	66
Joel Hanrahan R 2010 · 2.56 FIP	28	SU	2.56	34.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.321	3.22	24.2%	14.9%	128	+0.66	2.08	397	62
Brad Lidge R 2005 · 2.01 FIP	28	SU	2.01	35.4%	7.6%	1.7%	.329	2.96	30.9%	21.2%	211	+0.95	1.56	595	61
David Robertson R 2013 · 2.42 FIP	28	SU	2.42	29.4%	6.5%	1.8%	.282	2.64	33.2%	25.6%	190	+0.22	1.53	888	60
Hansel Robles R 2019 · 2.67 FIP	28	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.3%	2.1%	.278	4.57	23.3%	10.8%	128	+1.90	2.67	469	60
Mike Mayers R 2020 · 1.93 FIP	28	SU	1.93	35.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.239	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	260	+2.95	1.93	722	60
Pete Fairbanks R 2022 · 0.50 FIP	28	SU	0.50	43.7%	3.4%	1.2%	.267	3.09	27.9%	19.3%	151	+2.59	0.50	463	59
Josh Fields R 2014 · 1.80 FIP	28	SU	1.80	30.3%	6.1%	0.9%	.331	2.78	28.2%	21.6%	172	+0.98	1.80	330	59
Nate Jones R 2013 · 2.58 FIP	27	SU	2.58	28.3%	7.9%	1.6%	.327	3.03	31.0%	25.7%	90	+0.45	2.57	307	58
Octavio Dotel R 2002 · 2.31 FIP	28	SU	2.31	31.4%	6.6%	1.9%	.226	3.28	30.6%	22.2%	188	+0.97	2.03	946	58
Eric Gagne R 2004 · 1.73 FIP	28	SU	1.73	35.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.255	2.95	26.8%	18.1%	65	+1.22	0.42	642	58
Aaron Barrett R 2015 · 1.86 FIP	27	SU	1.86	28.5%	5.7%	0.8%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	160	58
Brian Wilson R 2010 · 2.00 FIP	28	SU	2.00	29.9%	6.8%	1.0%	.304	3.33	22.2%	9.4%	55	+1.33	2.00	366	58
Sergio Santos R 2011 · 2.53 FIP	28	SU	2.53	35.4%	9.2%	2.3%	.254	3.13	29.4%	21.4%	47	+0.60	1.36	178	58
Ryan Walker R 2024 · 2.05 FIP	28	SU	2.05	32.1%	5.5%	1.8%	.241	3.65	19.6%	12.2%	130	+1.60	2.05	436	57
Dedniel Núñez R 2024 · 1.80 FIP	28	SU	1.80	34.8%	6.1%	1.6%	.274	3.82	24.1%	19.0%	38	+2.02	1.80	337	57
Tyler Duffey R 2019 · 2.45 FIP	28	SU	2.45	34.8%	6.3%	2.7%	.273	3.55	24.4%	15.5%	141	+1.10	2.27	803	57
Austin Adams R 2019 · 2.12 FIP	28	SU	2.12	41.7%	10.4%	2.2%	.296	2.39	31.5%	17.8%	53	+0.27	1.79	392	56
Mike Broadway R 2015 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	60	44.7%	9.5%	0.80	2.21
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Dellin Betances ('21)	2.0	79	39.2%	11.3%	0.59	2.53
Rob Dibble ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	2.4	68	41.6%*	12.1%*	0.76*	3.34*
Ken Giles ('22)	1.8	59	33.3%	7.8%	0.71	2.71
Tom Henke ('82-'95, 25 WAR*)	3.9	66	35.9%*	7.7%*	0.93*	2.72*
Billy Wagner ('10)	4.5	65	33.2%	8.3%	0.82	2.31