Austin Adams — OGILVIE

Austin Adams P Worcester Red Sox

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.21

FIP4.25

K%27.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p9035.3%

p8027.7%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

SI (2%)

SL-2.4 (74%)

FB-3.1 (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	55	238	71	47	0	0%	1.4	25.6%	19.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.27	3.39	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	55	238	71	47	0	0%	1.4	29.8%	19.7%	10.1%	0.0%	3.27	3.08	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	44	184	63	24	2	0%	1.3	28.4%	15.2%	13.2%	1.4%	3.05	3.40	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	44	184	63	24	2	0%	1.3	34.2%	13.0%	21.2%	1.1%	3.05	2.47	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	64	294	101	42	2	0%	1.3	30.2%	13.5%	16.7%	0.8%	2.25	2.72	+1.4
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	64	294	101	42	2	0%	1.3	34.4%	14.3%	20.1%	0.7%	2.25	2.32	+1.7
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	218	78	22	1	0%	1.1	32.5%	9.5%	23.1%	0.4%	3.42	1.79	+1.6
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	218	78	22	1	0%	1.1	35.8%	10.1%	25.7%	0.5%	3.42	1.47	+1.8
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	2	48	192	85	21	4	5%	1.1	41.7%	10.4%	31.3%	2.2%	3.17	2.12	+1.4
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	2	48	192	85	21	4	5%	1.1	44.3%	10.9%	33.3%	2.1%	3.17	1.96	+1.5
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	3	0	4	17	7	2	1	0%	1.3	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	4.50	4.34	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	3	0	4	17	7	2	1	0%	1.3	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	4.50	4.35	+0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	65	0	53	241	76	33	1	0%	0.8	31.5%	13.7%	17.8%	0.4%	4.10	2.39	+1.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	65	0	53	241	76	33	1	0%	0.8	31.5%	13.7%	17.8%	0.4%	4.10	2.34	+1.4
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	2	0	2	9	2	3	0	0%	1.2	22.2%	33.3%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.45	-0.0
2022	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	2	0	2	9	2	3	0	0%	1.2	22.2%	33.3%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.24	-0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	30	135	42	14	1	0%	0.8	28.6%	9.9%	18.7%	0.8%	4.50	2.37	+0.8
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	30	135	42	14	1	0%	0.8	28.6%	9.9%	18.7%	0.8%	4.50	2.37	+0.8
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	30	135	42	14	1	0%	0.8	31.1%	10.4%	20.7%	0.7%	4.50	2.13	+0.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	56	0	41	191	53	21	4	0%	0.7	27.7%	11.0%	16.8%	2.3%	3.92	3.41	+0.6
2024	33	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	56	0	41	191	53	21	4	0%	0.7	27.7%	11.0%	16.8%	2.3%	3.92	3.41	+0.6
2024	33	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	56	0	41	191	53	21	4	0%	0.7	27.7%	11.0%	16.8%	2.1%	3.92	3.32	+0.6
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	24	1	24	128	34	21	3	4%	1.0	22.0%	14.8%	7.3%	2.6%	9.13	4.55	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	24	1	24	128	34	21	3	4%	1.0	22.0%	14.8%	7.3%	2.6%	9.13	4.55	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	24	1	24	128	34	21	3	4%	1.0	26.6%	16.4%	10.2%	2.3%	9.13	4.54	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			188	2	156	705	223	94	11	1%	0.8	31.6%	13.3%	18.3%	1.6%	4.10	2.97	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	BOS	4	0	4	17	5	2	0	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.6%	14.5%	2.7%	4.21	4.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	BOS	45	0	47	200	52	26	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	13.2%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.61	-0.0
2028	37	MLB MLE	BOS	39	0	41	175	44	24	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.79	5.01	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.1%	13.2%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.61	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.0%	13.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.79	5.01	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	2	156	707	224	94	11	1%	0.8	31.6%	13.3%	18.3%	1.6%	4.11	2.98	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		241	3	200	906	287	120	14	1%	0.8	31.6%	13.3%	18.3%	1.6%	4.11	2.98	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		395	3	413	1847	558	245	21	1%	1.0	30.2%	13.3%	16.9%	1.1%	3.68	2.86	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		191	1	200	894	270	119	10	1%	1.0	30.2%	13.3%	16.9%	1.1%	3.68	2.86	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	27.1%	12.6%	2.7%	—	4.80	25.5%	12.0%	89	+0.55	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	83
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	79
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	78
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	76
Adam Ottavino R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	35	SU	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.9%	.299	3.14	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.32	2.10	488	74
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	71
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	70
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	69
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	69
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	69
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	68
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	68
Greg Holland R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	21.8%	9.9%	4.0%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	268	68
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	67
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	67
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	67
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	67
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	26.1%	13.2%	1.16	4.46
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41