Austin Adams
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95
ERA4.25
FIP4.32
K%27.6%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p9035.3%
K%
p8027.7%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SI (2%)
SL-2.4 (74%)
FB-3.1 (26%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 55 | 238 | 71 | 47 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 19.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.39 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 55 | 238 | 71 | 47 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.8% | 19.7% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.08 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 63 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.4% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 1.5% | 3.05 | 3.43 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 63 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.2% | 13.0% | 21.2% | 1.1% | 3.05 | 2.47 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 64 | 294 | 101 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.2% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 0.9% | 2.25 | 2.73 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 64 | 294 | 101 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.4% | 14.3% | 20.1% | 0.7% | 2.25 | 2.32 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 78 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.5% | 9.5% | 23.1% | 0.4% | 3.42 | 1.75 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 78 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.8% | 10.1% | 25.7% | 0.5% | 3.42 | 1.47 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 2 | 48 | 192 | 85 | 21 | 4 | 5% | 1.1 | 41.7% | 10.4% | 31.3% | 2.3% | 3.17 | 2.15 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 2 | 48 | 192 | 85 | 21 | 4 | 5% | 1.1 | 44.3% | 10.9% | 33.3% | 2.1% | 3.17 | 1.96 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 41.2% | 11.8% | 29.4% | 5.9% | 4.50 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 41.2% | 11.8% | 29.4% | 5.9% | 4.50 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 53 | 241 | 76 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 31.5% | 13.7% | 17.8% | 0.4% | 4.10 | 2.42 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 53 | 241 | 76 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 31.5% | 13.7% | 17.8% | 0.4% | 4.10 | 2.34 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 33.3% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.45 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 33.3% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.3% | 10.6% | 18.7% | 0.7% | 4.50 | 2.35 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 31.1% | 10.4% | 20.7% | 0.7% | 4.50 | 2.13 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 56 | 0 | 41 | 191 | 53 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 27.7% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.35 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 56 | 0 | 41 | 191 | 53 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 27.7% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 2.1% | 3.92 | 3.32 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 24 | 1 | 24 | 128 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 4% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 17.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 9.13 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 24 | 1 | 24 | 128 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 4% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 16.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 9.13 | 4.54 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 62 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 53 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 44 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.5% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.69 | — |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.4% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 5.09 | — |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.3% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.52 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 2 | 156 | 707 | 224 | 94 | 11 | 1% | 0.8 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 2.98 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 241 | 3 | 200 | 906 | 287 | 120 | 14 | 1% | 0.8 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 2.98 | +5.7 | ||
| Career | — | 395 | 3 | 413 | 1847 | 561 | 249 | 21 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 1.1% | 3.68 | 2.87 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 1 | 200 | 894 | 271 | 121 | 10 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 1.1% | 3.68 | 2.87 | +5.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 2.6% | — | 5.06 | 25.5% | 10.7% | 124 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 75 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 75 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 68 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 68 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 67 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 67 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 66 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 66 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 66 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 65 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 65 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 64 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 26.1% | 14.4% | 1.23 | 4.66 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |