Austin Adams
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.36
xFIP4.64
SIERA3.71
K%24.9%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%13.0%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL3535
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p9035.3%
K%
p8027.7%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SI (2%)
SL-2.4 (74%)
FB-3.1 (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 38 | 0 | 55 | 238 | 71 | 47 | 0 | 25.6% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.39 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 34 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 63 | 24 | 2 | 28.4% | 15.2% | 1.4% | 3.05 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 50 | 0 | 64 | 294 | 101 | 42 | 2 | 30.2% | 13.5% | 0.8% | 2.25 | 2.72 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 43 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 78 | 22 | 1 | 32.5% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 3.42 | 1.79 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 2 | 48 | 192 | 85 | 21 | 4 | 41.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.17 | 2.14 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 53 | 241 | 76 | 33 | 1 | 31.5% | 13.7% | 0.4% | 4.10 | 2.40 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 36 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 29.3% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 4.50 | 2.36 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 56 | 0 | 41 | 191 | 53 | 21 | 4 | 27.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 24 | 1 | 24 | 128 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 23.4% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 9.13 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 26.6% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 87 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 395 | 3 | 413 | 1847 | 561 | 249 | 21 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 3.68 | 2.87 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 1 | 200 | 894 | 272 | 121 | 10 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 3.68 | 2.87 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 26.6% | 12.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.43 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 78 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 72 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 71 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 70 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 69 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 68 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.41 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 4.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 365 | 67 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 137 | 67 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 66 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 66 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 65 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.61 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 268 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.