Pete Fairbanks
P
Miami Marlins
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.55
FIP3.93
xFIP3.22
SIERA2.42
K%24.7%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.5%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p5526.1%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p880.275
SL+1.8 (19%)
CH (2%)
FB (48%)
CT-1.3 (32%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 16 | 101 | 446 | 80 | 31 | 9 | 13.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.88 | 4.31 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 9 | 1 | 19 | 88 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 8.8% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 5.79 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 61 | 1 | 65 | 280 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 29.5% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 3.70 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 2 | 27 | 117 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 33.3% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 2.70 | 2.81 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 49 | 0 | 45 | 196 | 58 | 20 | 3 | 29.6% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 3.63 | 2.55 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 0 | 30 | 117 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 43.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.82 | 0.49 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 51 | 1 | 47 | 191 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 37.0% | 10.9% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 2.21 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 48 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 46 | 15 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 3.42 | 3.32 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 61 | 0 | 60 | 244 | 59 | 18 | 7 | 24.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.83 | 3.53 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 27.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 25 | 108 | 30 | 8 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 2.97 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 53 | 16 | 6 | 26.7% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 25.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 366 | 22 | 445 | 1895 | 480 | 171 | 42 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.33 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 10 | 200 | 851 | 216 | 77 | 19 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pete Fairbanks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.71 | 27.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | — | 3.96 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 135 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 78 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 69 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 69 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 69 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 68 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 68 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 67 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.42 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .240 | 3.32 | 33.4% | 25.7% | 97 | -0.10 | 1.69 | 468 | 67 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 66 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.84 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.73 | 2.37 | 261 | 65 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 65 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 65 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 6.331 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +0.4 | $2M | -$11M |
| Totals | $13M | $2M | -$11M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | CLUB OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $7.0M / $1.0M buyout | DECLINE |