Pete Fairbanks

P Miami Marlins

Age 33 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	48	0	47	3.42	3.21	24.0%	7.8%	0.8	K 23.8% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.34
2025	31	MLBTB	61	0	60	2.83	3.55	24.2%	7.4%	0.7
2026	32	MLBMIA	46	1	41	6.31	4.31	31.1%	10.9%	0.1
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIA	42	0	44	4.14	4.14	28.2%	9.4%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBMIA	33	0	35	4.32	4.44	27.3%	9.9%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

FB Velo88

xwOBA vs41

CompsJim Henderson (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 33) · Tony Barnette (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%28.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%18.8%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9031.1%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	16	101	446	80	31	9	67%	4.2	13.3%	8.2%	5.1%	2.4%	4.88	4.33	—
2016	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	24	16	101	446	80	31	9	67%	4.2	17.9%	7.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.88	3.59	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	9	1	19	88	10	13	1	11%	2.1	8.8%	17.0%	-8.2%	1.4%	5.79	5.30	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	9	1	19	88	10	13	1	11%	2.1	11.4%	14.8%	-3.4%	1.1%	5.79	4.81	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	61	1	65	280	98	22	9	2%	1.1	29.5%	9.0%	20.6%	3.5%	5.29	3.68	+0.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	61	1	65	280	98	22	9	2%	1.1	35.0%	7.9%	27.1%	3.2%	5.29	2.90	+1.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	27	2	27	117	39	14	2	7%	1.0	33.3%	12.0%	21.4%	1.8%	2.70	2.77	+0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	27	2	27	117	39	14	2	7%	1.0	33.3%	12.0%	21.4%	1.7%	2.70	2.73	+0.6
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	45	196	58	20	3	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.6%	19.0%	1.1%	3.63	2.54	+1.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	45	196	58	20	3	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.2%	19.4%	1.5%	3.63	2.72	+1.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	30	117	47	6	2	0%	1.0	43.7%	3.4%	40.2%	1.2%	1.82	0.50	+1.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	30	117	47	6	2	0%	1.0	40.2%	5.1%	35.0%	1.7%	1.82	1.41	+1.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	47	191	72	20	3	2%	0.9	37.0%	10.9%	26.1%	1.7%	2.68	2.28	+1.3
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	1	47	191	72	20	3	2%	0.9	37.7%	10.5%	27.2%	1.6%	2.68	2.14	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.2%	3.42	3.34	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.2%	3.42	3.34	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.1%	2.1%	3.42	3.21	+0.8
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.8%	2.83	3.52	+0.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.8%	2.83	3.52	+0.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.9%	2.83	3.55	+0.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	46	1	41	183	57	20	8	2%	0.9	31.1%	10.9%	20.2%	4.6%	6.31	4.38	+0.1
2026	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	46	1	41	183	57	20	8	2%	0.9	31.1%	10.9%	20.2%	4.6%	6.31	4.38	+0.1
2026	32	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	46	1	41	183	57	20	8	2%	0.9	31.1%	10.9%	20.2%	4.4%	6.31	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			321	3	307	1288	389	120	32	1%	1.0	30.2%	9.3%	20.9%	2.5%	3.61	3.09	+5.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIA	42	0	44	186	52	17	6	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.4%	18.8%	3.4%	4.14	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIA	35	0	37	155	42	15	6	0%	1.0	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.7%	4.32	4.44	+0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIA	33	0	35	148	40	15	5	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.7%	4.32	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		354	3	342	1435	429	135	37	1%	1.0	29.9%	9.4%	20.5%	2.6%	3.68	3.19	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	2	200	840	251	79	22	1%	1.0	29.9%	9.4%	20.5%	2.6%	3.68	3.19	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		407	22	482	2054	530	190	50	5%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.4%	4.05	3.43	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	9	200	853	220	79	21	5%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.4%	4.05	3.43	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 5 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.95 (+0.50)K% 28.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.880	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.050	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.034	×1.100	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 24 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.25 (+0.39)K% 38.7% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.68%	—	×0.880	34.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.050	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷1.128	×1.100	3.68%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 12 IPFIP 1.61 → 2.33 (+0.72)K% 29.4% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.770	22.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×1.150	9.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.152	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 1.61 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 7 IPFIP -1.83 → -0.89 (+0.94)K% 58.3% → 47.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	58.33%	—	×0.810	47.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.208	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP -1.83 → -0.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 19 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.30 (+0.66)K% 11.4% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.36%	—	×0.770	8.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.77%	—	×1.150	16.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.995	×1.250	1.43%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AHickory Crawdads · 101 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.33 (+0.75)K% 17.9% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.94%	—	×0.740	13.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.95%	—	×1.180	8.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.100	×1.300	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pete Fairbanks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	28.2%	9.4%	3.4%	—	4.44	27.3%	17.4%	37	+0.30	—	—	—
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	76
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	73
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	70
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	69
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	67
Brendan Donnelly R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	32.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.302	3.88	19.0%	11.8%	150	+0.83	2.23	385	67
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	67
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	66
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	65
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	65
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	64
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	64
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	64
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	63
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	63
Tommy Nance R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	33	SU	3.51	20.2%	5.8%	2.5%	.327	2.84	26.3%	19.5%	123	-0.67	2.08	360	63
Jay Jackson R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	33	SU	4.14	31.1%	13.3%	3.6%	.255	4.48	26.4%	20.6%	105	+0.34	2.36	261	63
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	62
Marcos Mateo R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	31	SU	3.12	28.0%	8.0%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	62
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	39	29.7%	9.6%	1.05	3.74
Héctor Neris ('25)	3.1	57	29.4%	9.2%	1.19	3.47
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21
Mychal Givens ('23)	2.3	58	28.2%	10.0%	1.05	3.47
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*