Pete Fairbanks
P
Miami Marlins
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10393vR 84
ERA3.56
FIP3.64
K%27.3%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%19.2%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p8829.2%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SL+1.8 (21%)
CH (3%)
FB (51%)
CT-1.3 (25%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 16 | 101 | 446 | 80 | 31 | 9 | 67% | 4.2 | 13.3% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 4.88 | 4.22 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 24 | 16 | 101 | 446 | 80 | 31 | 9 | 67% | 4.2 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 4.88 | 3.59 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 9 | 1 | 19 | 88 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 11% | 2.1 | 8.8% | 17.0% | -8.2% | 1.4% | 5.79 | 5.30 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 9 | 1 | 19 | 88 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 11% | 2.1 | 11.4% | 14.8% | -3.4% | 1.1% | 5.79 | 4.81 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 61 | 1 | 65 | 280 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 9.0% | 20.6% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 3.63 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 61 | 1 | 65 | 280 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 35.0% | 7.9% | 27.1% | 3.2% | 5.29 | 2.90 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 2 | 27 | 117 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 1.8% | 2.70 | 2.79 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 2 | 27 | 117 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 1.7% | 2.70 | 2.73 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 45 | 196 | 58 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.6% | 10.6% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 3.63 | 2.55 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 45 | 196 | 58 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.6% | 10.2% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 2.72 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 30 | 117 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 43.7% | 3.4% | 40.2% | 1.2% | 1.82 | 0.52 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 30 | 117 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.2% | 5.1% | 35.0% | 1.7% | 1.82 | 1.41 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 47 | 191 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.0% | 10.9% | 26.1% | 1.7% | 2.68 | 2.30 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 47 | 191 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.7% | 10.5% | 27.2% | 1.6% | 2.68 | 2.14 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 46 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.1% | 15.7% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 3.37 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 46 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 3.42 | 3.21 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 61 | 0 | 60 | 244 | 59 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 7.4% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 2.83 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 61 | 0 | 60 | 244 | 59 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 7.4% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 2.83 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 1 | 29 | 130 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 3% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 20.8% | 5.4% | 6.83 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 3.56 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 3.56 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 57 | 248 | 70 | 21 | 11 | — | — | 28.3% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 4.4% | 5.22 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 57 | 241 | 70 | 21 | 11 | — | — | 29.2% | 8.5% | 20.6% | 4.5% | 5.22 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 58 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.19 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 51 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 44 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 4.2% | 4.77 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 55 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.19 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 4.2% | 4.77 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 456 | 3 | 452 | 1900 | 541 | 170 | 56 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 239 | 75 | 25 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 392 | 22 | 469 | 2001 | 511 | 181 | 48 | 6% | 1.2 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.42 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 9 | 200 | 853 | 218 | 77 | 21 | 6% | 1.2 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pete Fairbanks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.63 | 25.3% | 16.3% | 143 | +0.81 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.61 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .240 | 3.37 | 33.4% | 25.7% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.74 | 468 | 69 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 69 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 68 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 67 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 67 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.62 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .224 | 7.57 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +3.95 | 1.86 | 238 | 67 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 67 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 25.5% | 8.7% | 1.39 | 4.25 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |