Pete Fairbanks — OGILVIE

Pete Fairbanks P Miami Marlins

Age 32 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.31

FIP3.37

K%28.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%19.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9031.3%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

SL+1.8 (26%)

CH (2%)

FB (49%)

CT-1.3 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	16	101	446	80	31	9	67%	4.2	13.3%	8.2%	5.1%	2.4%	4.88	4.33	—
2016	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	24	16	101	446	80	31	9	67%	4.2	17.9%	7.0%	11.0%	2.0%	4.88	3.59	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	9	1	19	88	10	13	1	11%	2.1	8.8%	17.0%	-8.2%	1.4%	5.79	5.30	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	9	1	19	88	10	13	1	11%	2.1	11.4%	14.8%	-3.4%	1.1%	5.79	4.81	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	61	1	65	280	98	22	9	2%	1.1	29.5%	9.0%	20.6%	3.5%	5.29	3.68	+0.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	61	1	65	280	98	22	9	2%	1.1	35.0%	7.9%	27.1%	3.2%	5.29	2.90	+1.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	27	2	27	117	39	14	2	7%	1.0	33.3%	12.0%	21.4%	1.8%	2.70	2.77	+0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	27	2	27	117	39	14	2	7%	1.0	33.3%	12.0%	21.4%	1.7%	2.70	2.73	+0.6
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	45	196	58	20	3	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.6%	19.0%	1.1%	3.63	2.54	+1.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	45	196	58	20	3	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.2%	19.4%	1.5%	3.63	2.72	+1.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	30	117	47	6	2	0%	1.0	43.7%	3.4%	40.2%	1.2%	1.82	0.50	+1.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	30	117	47	6	2	0%	1.0	40.2%	5.1%	35.0%	1.7%	1.82	1.41	+1.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	47	191	72	20	3	2%	0.9	37.0%	10.9%	26.1%	1.7%	2.68	2.28	+1.3
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	47	191	72	20	3	2%	0.9	37.0%	10.9%	26.1%	1.7%	2.68	2.28	+1.3
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	1	47	191	72	20	3	2%	0.9	37.7%	10.5%	27.2%	1.6%	2.68	2.14	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.2%	3.42	3.34	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	2.2%	3.42	3.34	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	47	192	46	15	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.1%	2.1%	3.42	3.21	+0.8
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.8%	2.83	3.52	+0.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.8%	2.83	3.52	+0.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	60	244	59	18	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	2.9%	2.83	3.55	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			320	3	307	1287	389	119	32	1%	1.0	30.2%	9.2%	21.0%	2.5%	3.58	3.08	+5.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	45	1	41	182	57	19	8	2%	0.9	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	4.6%	6.10	4.32	+0.1
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	45	1	41	182	57	19	8	2%	0.9	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	4.6%	6.10	4.32	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	MIA	45	1	41	182	57	19	8	2%	0.9	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	4.4%	6.10	4.19	+0.2
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	MIA	45	1	41	182	57	19	8	2%	0.9	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	4.4%	6.10	4.19	+0.2
ROS	32	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	20	6	2	1	0%	1.0	28.5%	8.8%	19.7%	2.9%	3.31	3.37	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	MIA	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	28.5%	8.8%	19.7%	2.9%	3.31	3.37	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	46	202	63	21	9	—	—	31.0%	10.3%	20.8%	4.2%	5.81	4.22	+0.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	46	195	63	21	9	—	—	32.2%	10.7%	21.6%	4.4%	5.81	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIA	50	0	52	221	60	20	8	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.2%	17.9%	3.4%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIA	45	0	48	201	53	20	7	0%	1.1	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	3.7%	4.36	4.54	+0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	180	46	19	7	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.3%	15.0%	4.1%	4.67	4.88	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIA	48	0	50	211	57	20	7	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.2%	17.9%	3.4%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	48	18	7	0%	1.0	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	3.7%	4.36	4.54	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIA	35	0	37	156	40	16	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.3%	15.0%	4.1%	4.67	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		448	3	441	1854	539	174	53	1%	1.0	29.1%	9.4%	19.7%	2.9%	3.80	3.40	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	1	200	841	244	79	24	1%	1.0	29.1%	9.4%	19.7%	2.9%	3.80	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		406	22	482	2053	530	189	50	5%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.4%	4.04	3.42	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	9	200	852	220	78	21	5%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.4%	4.04	3.42	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pete Fairbanks (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.77	26.1%	8.0%	2.7%	—	4.53	26.3%	16.6%	143	+0.76	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	77
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	75
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	73
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	73
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	73
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	73
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	72
Daniel Hudson R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	23.4%	8.2%	2.6%	.240	3.24	33.4%	25.7%	97	-0.37	1.68	468	72
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	71
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	71
Bud Norris R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	27.7%	9.0%	2.9%	.298	3.65	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.14	3.51	316	71
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	71
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	70
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	70
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	70
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	69
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	68
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	68
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.90	238	68
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	26.3%	9.2%	1.33	4.17
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81