Hancel Rincon

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+STL	24	24	133	3.80	3.88	18.8%	8.6%	—	K 14.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.74
2025	23	MIX2 levels	19	17	96	3.92	2.87	26.8%	7.4%	—	K 21.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.76
2026	24	MIX3 levels	50	3	82	4.48	3.74	30.7%	9.3%	0.8	K 27.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	15	15	102	4.07	4.07	25.3%	7.7%	1.6
2028PROJ76% MLB	26	MLBSTL	18	18	116	3.95	3.93	25.3%	7.6%	1.9
2029PROJ81% MLB	27	MLBSTL	17	17	111	3.98	3.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 5.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsMitch Neunborn (age 26) · Jake Lee (age 24) · Juan Gutierrez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%25.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%17.6%

Proj IP153

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$65M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$51M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	12.7%	10.8%	1.9%	1.3%	3.75	4.10	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	0.9%	3.75	3.12	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	0.7%	1.84	3.40	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	27.5%	9.5%	18.0%	0.5%	1.84	2.28	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	15.0%	6.6%	8.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.42	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.4%	2.2%	4.34	3.24	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	13.5%	4.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.26	4.11	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	18.2%	3.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.26	3.27	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.3%	3.80	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	26.8%	7.4%	19.4%	2.0%	3.92	2.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	3.8%	4.48	3.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	3.8%	4.48	3.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	30.7%	9.3%	21.4%	3.8%	4.48	3.74	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	14	3	1	1	0%	0.8	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	7.1%	27.00	7.39	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	15	15	102	431	109	33	14	100%	6.8	25.3%	7.7%	17.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.07	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	153	645	163	49	20	100%	6.6	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.05	+2.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	137	579	145	45	19	100%	6.5	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.10	+2.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	133	562	139	44	19	100%	6.7	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.3%	4.16	4.20	+1.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	124	525	128	43	18	100%	6.5	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	3.4%	4.26	4.33	+1.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	114	481	116	40	18	100%	6.7	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.6%	4.41	4.51	+1.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	102	432	102	38	17	100%	6.8	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.59	4.71	+0.8
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	90	381	89	35	16	100%	6.4	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	4.1%	4.80	4.93	+0.5
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	78	329	75	32	14	100%	6.5	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.4%	5.03	5.18	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	116	490	124	37	14	100%	6.4	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	2.9%	3.95	3.93	+1.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	111	469	117	36	14	100%	6.5	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	3.0%	3.98	3.98	+1.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	113	477	118	38	15	100%	6.6	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.1%	4.03	4.07	+1.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	108	456	111	37	15	100%	6.8	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	3.2%	4.13	4.20	+1.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	101	426	103	36	14	100%	6.7	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.4%	4.27	4.37	+1.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	92	388	92	34	14	100%	6.6	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.44	4.56	+0.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	82	346	80	32	13	100%	6.8	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.8%	4.64	4.77	+0.4
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	72	304	69	29	12	100%	6.5	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.1%	4.86	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	120	797	3371	818	280	113	98%	6.5	24.3%	8.3%	16.0%	3.3%	4.31	3.94	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	30	200	845	205	70	28	98%	6.5	24.3%	8.3%	16.0%	3.3%	4.31	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		158	99	608	2531	437	208	68	63%	3.8	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.15	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	33	200	833	144	68	22	63%	3.8	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.15	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 78 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.98 (+0.44)K% 31.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.37%	—	×0.860	26.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×0.900	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 49 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.32 (+1.11)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.770	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.29%	—	×1.150	9.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷0.857	×1.250	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 47 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.18 (+0.66)K% 29.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.80%	—	×0.810	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.57%	—	×1.100	7.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.105	×1.200	2.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 133 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.74 (+0.86)K% 18.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.78%	—	×0.770	14.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.59%	—	×1.150	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.993	×1.250	2.93%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 133 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.11 (+0.84)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.20%	—	×0.740	13.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.75%	—	×1.180	4.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 42 IPFIP 3.78 → 5.05 (+1.26)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.44%	—	×0.740	13.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×1.180	6.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.880	×1.300	4.12%

Result: FIP 3.78 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Cardinals · 22 IPFIP 2.19 → 3.20 (+1.01)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.680	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.250	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.127	×1.400	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 2.19 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Cardinals Blue · 49 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.40 (+1.14)K% 27.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.680	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.250	11.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷1.030	×1.400	0.68%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hancel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.11	25.0%	17.3%	423	+0.04	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	74
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	72
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	72
Daniel Federman R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP-	4.12	23.8%	8.3%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	119	71
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	69
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	69
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	69
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	69
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	68
Cody Morris R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	25	SP-	3.74	31.3%	11.6%	3.3%	.256	4.45	23.6%	8.9%	72	+0.71	2.23	256	68
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	68
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	68
Juan Carlos Oviedo R 2007 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	20.3%	5.5%	4.4%	.283	3.71	20.5%	13.5%	182	-0.78	2.84	389	67
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	66
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	121	24.5%	8.2%	1.36	4.37
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*