Hancel Rincon — OGILVIE

Hancel Rincon P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 153 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%25.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%17.6%

ROS IP153

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—55

CMD5560

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$27M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	12.7%	10.8%	1.9%	1.3%	3.75	4.10	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	0.9%	3.75	3.12	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	0.7%	1.84	3.40	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	27.5%	9.5%	18.0%	0.5%	1.84	2.28	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	15.0%	6.6%	8.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.42	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.4%	2.2%	4.34	3.24	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	13.5%	4.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.26	4.11	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	18.2%	3.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.26	3.27	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.3%	3.80	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	26.8%	7.4%	19.4%	2.0%	3.92	2.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	3.8%	4.48	3.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	3.8%	4.48	3.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	3	82	345	106	32	13	6%	1.6	30.7%	9.3%	21.4%	3.8%	4.48	3.74	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	14	3	1	1	0%	0.8	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	7.1%	27.00	7.39	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	23	23	153	646	164	50	21	100%	6.7	25.3%	7.7%	17.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.07	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	165	695	176	53	22	100%	6.6	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	3.2%	4.07	4.05	+1.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	166	702	176	54	23	100%	6.6	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.10	+1.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	166	702	174	55	23	100%	6.6	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.3%	4.16	4.20	+1.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	159	670	164	54	23	100%	6.6	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	3.4%	4.26	4.33	+1.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	149	630	152	53	23	100%	6.5	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.6%	4.41	4.51	+0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	139	587	139	51	23	100%	6.6	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.59	4.71	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	129	543	126	50	22	100%	6.8	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	4.1%	4.80	4.93	-0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	118	499	113	48	22	100%	6.6	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.4%	5.03	5.18	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	98	414	105	32	12	100%	6.5	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	2.9%	3.95	3.93	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	121	511	128	39	15	100%	6.7	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	3.0%	3.98	3.98	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	135	570	141	45	17	100%	6.8	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.1%	4.03	4.07	+1.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	136	574	140	47	18	100%	6.5	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	3.2%	4.13	4.20	+0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	132	557	134	47	19	100%	6.6	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.4%	4.27	4.37	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	126	532	126	47	19	100%	6.6	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.44	4.56	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	118	498	116	46	19	100%	6.6	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.8%	4.64	4.77	-0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	110	464	106	45	19	100%	6.5	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.1%	4.86	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	148	979	4136	999	347	140	98%	6.5	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.4%	4.34	3.99	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	30	200	845	204	71	29	98%	6.5	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.4%	4.34	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		158	99	608	2531	437	208	68	63%	3.8	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.15	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	33	200	833	144	68	22	63%	3.8	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	3.69	4.15	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hancel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	25.3%	7.7%	3.2%	—	4.12	25.0%	17.3%	497	+0.05	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	74
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	72
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	72
Daniel Federman R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP-	4.12	23.8%	8.3%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	119	71
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	69
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	69
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	69
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	69
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	68
Cody Morris R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	25	SP-	3.74	31.3%	11.6%	3.3%	.256	4.45	23.6%	8.9%	72	+0.71	2.23	256	68
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	68
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	68
Juan Carlos Oviedo R 2007 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	20.3%	5.5%	4.4%	.283	3.71	20.5%	13.5%	182	-0.78	2.84	389	67
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	66
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	150	24.4%	8.3%	1.38	4.39
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07