Hancel Rincon — OGILVIE

Hancel Rincon P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 94 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%19.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP94

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—55

CMD5560

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	12.7%	10.8%	1.9%	1.3%	3.75	4.10	—
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	0.9%	3.75	3.12	—
2021	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	0.7%	1.84	3.39	—
2021	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	27.5%	9.5%	18.0%	0.5%	1.84	2.28	—
2022	20	MIX	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	15.0%	6.6%	8.3%	3.6%	4.34	4.62	—
2022	20	MIX	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.4%	2.2%	4.34	3.24	—
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	13.5%	4.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.26	4.10	—
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	18.2%	3.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.26	3.27	—
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.75	—
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.3%	3.80	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.7%	3.92	3.86	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	26.8%	7.4%	19.4%	2.0%	3.92	2.87	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	27	3	53	220	60	21	10	11%	2.0	24.2%	10.5%	13.7%	4.7%	4.10	4.96	-0.3
ROS	24	MLB	STL	90	0	94	398	78	29	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+1.0
ROS	24	MLB	STL	9	0	9	38	7	3	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	STL	—	—	147	618	138	50	21	—	—	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.5%	4.25	4.56	+1.4
2026 FULL	24	MLB	STL	—	—	9	40	8	3	1	—	—	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.34	3.96	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	STL	18	18	113	479	102	35	14	100%	6.3	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.17	+1.6
2028	26	MLB	STL	20	20	125	529	119	38	15	100%	6.3	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.15	4.09	+1.9
2029	27	MLB	STL	20	20	124	521	117	38	15	100%	6.2	22.4%	7.3%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.14	+1.8
2030	28	MLB	STL	19	19	120	506	112	38	15	100%	6.3	22.2%	7.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.19	4.22	+1.7
2031	29	MLB	STL	18	18	114	483	106	37	15	100%	6.4	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.35	+1.4
2032	30	MLB	STL	17	17	108	454	98	36	15	100%	6.3	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	+1.1
2033	31	MLB	STL	16	16	100	423	90	35	15	100%	6.3	21.2%	8.4%	12.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	+0.8
2034	32	MLB	STL	15	15	93	391	81	34	15	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.9%	4.82	4.96	+0.3
2035	33	MLB	STL	14	14	85	359	73	33	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	4.1%	5.05	5.21	-0.1
2027	25	MLB	STL	9	9	55	232	50	17	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.17	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	STL	14	14	87	367	82	27	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.15	4.09	+1.1
2029	27	MLB	STL	16	16	98	414	93	30	12	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.3%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.14	+1.4
2030	28	MLB	STL	16	16	102	431	96	32	13	100%	6.4	22.2%	7.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.19	4.22	+1.4
2031	29	MLB	STL	16	16	101	426	94	33	14	100%	6.3	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.35	+1.2
2032	30	MLB	STL	15	15	97	410	89	33	14	100%	6.5	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	+0.9
2033	31	MLB	STL	15	15	92	388	83	32	14	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	+0.5
2034	32	MLB	STL	14	14	86	363	75	32	14	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.9%	4.81	4.95	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	STL	13	13	80	338	69	31	14	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			136	127	807	3406	736	270	113	93%	5.9	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	3.3%	4.42	4.10	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	32	200	844	182	67	28	93%	5.9	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	3.3%	4.42	4.10	+3.0
Career	—			135	99	578	2406	397	201	67	73%	4.3	16.5%	8.4%	8.2%	2.8%	3.61	4.29	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—			47	34	200	833	138	70	23	73%	4.3	16.5%	8.4%	8.2%	2.8%	3.61	4.29	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hancel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	—	4.13	22.1%	14.8%	362	-0.21	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP-	4.50	17.8%	9.3%	3.1%	.300	3.74	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.76	3.74	107	88
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	88
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	20.3%	8.7%	2.4%	.309	3.63	21.4%	13.2%	123	-0.14	1.87	232	87
Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.20	13.6%	5.2%	202	-0.02	3.96	354	87
Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	16.5%	6.3%	2.8%	.285	5.72	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.66	4.06	178	86
Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP-	3.33	17.0%	5.3%	1.8%	.290	4.39	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.06	3.33	197	86
Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	25	SP-	4.55	16.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.287	3.95	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.60	3.53	289	85
Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.51	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.27	4.24	146	85
Aaron Brown R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	24	SP-	3.70	19.8%	8.8%	2.1%	.337	6.11	17.2%	8.4%	186	+2.41	3.70	418	85
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	17.0%	6.5%	3.4%	.293	4.16	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.22	3.50	472	84
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	20.2%	8.6%	3.9%	.261	4.28	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.36	3.41	368	84
Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	17.4%	7.5%	4.2%	.316	5.06	14.7%	4.2%	160	+0.16	3.97	345	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	83
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP-	4.53	19.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.278	5.41	19.6%	8.0%	66	+0.88	3.96	260	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	83
Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP-	4.54	16.4%	7.4%	3.4%	.307	4.08	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.46	3.05	907	83
Ryan Etsell R 2025 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	14.7%	6.4%	2.0%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	110	83
Collin Lowe R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	15.2%	6.2%	2.0%	.292	3.22	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.49	3.22	165	82
Joey Wagman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	24	SP-	3.34	14.8%	5.3%	1.5%	.320	3.63	15.8%	7.0%	148	+0.29	3.27	238	82
Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	25	SP-	3.24	18.3%	7.1%	1.4%	.291	4.21	15.1%	5.6%	183	+0.97	3.24	289	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	108	21.5%	7.8%	1.26	4.40
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04