Hancel Rincon — OGILVIE

Hancel Rincon P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%19.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—55

CMD5560

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	12.7%	10.8%	1.9%	1.3%	3.75	4.10	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	60%	3.4	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	0.9%	3.75	3.12	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	0.7%	1.84	3.40	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	100%	4.5	27.5%	9.5%	18.0%	0.5%	1.84	2.28	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	15.0%	6.6%	8.3%	3.2%	4.34	4.42	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	80%	4.3	21.0%	5.5%	15.4%	2.2%	4.34	3.24	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	13.5%	4.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.26	4.11	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	13.5%	4.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.26	4.11	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	96%	5.5	18.2%	3.8%	14.4%	2.3%	3.26	3.27	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	2.9%	3.80	4.74	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	100%	5.5	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	2.3%	3.80	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.5%	3.92	3.76	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	89%	5.1	26.8%	7.4%	19.4%	2.0%	3.92	2.87	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	1	11	1	1	1	0%	0.7	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	47.25	13.60	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	47	3	79	334	100	32	13	6%	1.7	25.6%	8.9%	16.8%	3.9%	4.65	4.18	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	47	3	79	334	100	32	13	6%	1.7	25.6%	8.9%	16.8%	3.9%	4.65	4.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	STL	1	0	2	9	2	0	1	0%	2.3	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	11.1%	3.86	7.32	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	STL	44	3	76	314	97	31	11	7%	1.7	30.9%	9.9%	21.0%	3.5%	3.93	3.66	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	STL	2	0	1	11	1	1	1	0%	0.7	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	47.25	8.47	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	STL	2	0	1	11	1	1	1	0%	0.7	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	47.25	8.47	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	85	359	105	34	14	—	—	29.2%	9.4%	19.8%	3.8%	4.63	4.19	+0.6
FULL	24	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	7	30	105	34	14	—	—	345.7%	111.6%	234.1%	45.0%	54.81	12.75	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	132	0	139	586	125	42	17	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.22	4.16	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	144	0	151	637	143	46	18	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.08	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	142	0	149	627	140	46	18	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.3%	15.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.12	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	137	0	144	608	135	46	18	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.18	4.21	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	131	0	138	581	128	45	18	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.28	4.34	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	123	0	129	546	118	44	18	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.42	4.52	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	115	0	121	509	108	43	18	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.4%	12.9%	3.6%	4.60	4.72	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	106	0	112	471	98	41	18	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.8%	4.81	4.95	-0.5
2035	33	MLB MLE	STL	98	0	102	432	88	40	18	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	126	0	132	557	119	40	15	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.7%	4.11	4.05	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	136	0	143	604	135	44	16	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.2%	15.2%	2.7%	4.03	3.97	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	134	0	141	595	133	44	16	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.3%	15.0%	2.7%	4.02	4.01	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	130	0	137	578	129	43	16	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.06	4.09	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	125	0	131	553	122	43	16	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.16	4.22	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	117	0	123	519	112	42	16	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.39	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	110	0	115	486	103	41	16	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.4%	12.9%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	-0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	101	0	106	448	93	39	16	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.66	4.80	-0.5
2035	33	MLB CTX	STL	92	0	97	410	83	38	16	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.8%	4.88	5.04	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1079	0	1132	4785	1035	375	145	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	845	183	66	26	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		155	99	605	2520	430	208	68	64%	3.9	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	2.7%	3.71	4.18	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	33	200	834	142	69	22	64%	3.9	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	2.7%	3.71	4.18	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hancel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	—	4.12	22.1%	14.8%	438	-0.21	—	—	—
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	87
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	86
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	86
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Logan Verrett R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SW	3.81	18.5%	6.7%	2.6%	.277	5.15	15.8%	6.3%	164	+1.34	3.81	550	83
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	83
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	83
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.02	14.4%	4.6%	160	+0.16	4.11	345	82
Josh DeGraaf R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	24	SW	3.90	15.5%	7.7%	2.1%	.295	4.52	17.2%	10.1%	121	+0.62	3.90	320	82
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	81
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	81
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	81
Erick Fedde R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	18.1%	6.7%	3.0%	.304	4.50	17.1%	8.8%	281	+0.44	3.34	1,249	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	127	21.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73