Hancel Rincon — OGILVIE

Hancel Rincon P Memphis Redbirds

+1.3 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2028

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.8%

IP111

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2028

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Red	15	9	50	219	41	19	2	12.7%	10.8%	1.3%	3.75	4.10	+0.5
2021	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	11	11	49	200	55	19	1	18.7%	11.9%	0.7%	1.84	3.39	+0.9
2022	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	15	12	64	272	57	15	6	15.0%	6.6%	3.3%	4.34	4.50	+0.4
2023	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	23	133	533	97	20	12	13.5%	4.4%	2.9%	3.26	4.12	+1.8
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	133	559	105	48	13	14.5%	9.9%	2.9%	3.80	4.73	+0.9
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	19	17	96	403	108	30	8	21.2%	8.4%	2.6%	3.92	3.78	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	4	1	10	46	11	5	3	—	—	—	6.52	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	STL	20	20	111	468	96	41	13	20.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.42	4.42	+1.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	STL	—	—	121	514	107	46	16	20.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.59	4.07	+1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	STL	23	23	124	525	111	44	15	21.1%	8.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.34	+1.4
2028	26	MLB	STL	24	24	131	554	118	46	16	21.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.31	+1.5
2029	27	MLB	STL	24	24	134	567	121	47	16	21.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	+1.5
2030	28	MLB	STL	24	24	134	567	121	48	17	21.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.34	+1.5
2031	29	MLB	STL	24	24	131	554	118	47	16	21.2%	8.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.39	+1.4
2032	30	MLB	STL	23	23	127	538	113	46	16	21.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.41	4.45	+1.2
2033	31	MLB	STL	22	22	123	519	108	45	16	20.8%	8.7%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+1.1
2034	32	MLB	STL	21	21	118	498	102	44	16	20.5%	8.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.61	+0.9
2035	33	MLB	STL	20	20	113	476	96	43	16	20.2%	9.0%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.8
2036	34	MLB	STL	19	19	107	452	90	42	15	19.9%	9.2%	3.4%	4.75	4.82	+0.6
2037	35	MLB	STL	18	18	101	426	83	40	15	19.5%	9.4%	3.5%	4.86	4.94	+0.4
2038	36	MLB	STL	17	17	94	398	76	39	14	19.1%	9.7%	3.6%	4.99	5.07	+0.2
2039	37	MLB	STL	16	16	88	369	69	37	14	18.6%	10.0%	3.7%	5.13	5.22	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			112	97	535	2232	355	183	58	15.9%	8.2%	2.6%	3.62	4.23	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—			42	36	200	834	133	68	22	15.9%	8.2%	2.6%	3.62	4.23	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hancel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	20.5%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.32	21.3%	12.9%	390	-0.10	—	—	—
Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	92
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	91
Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.23	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.26	3.97	171	91
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	91
R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	90
Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.69	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.01	3.68	523	90
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	90
Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	89
Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	89
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP-	3.55	21.2%	7.7%	2.3%	.319	6.02	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.47	3.55	252	89
Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	89
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	88
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.83	4.02	118	88
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	25	SP-	3.70	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.24	21.0%	14.2%	101	-0.46	1.87	210	88
Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	88
Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	22.6%	10.3%	3.9%	.279	4.35	22.4%	12.5%	132	-0.28	4.35	254	87
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	17.6%	5.5%	2.4%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.15	3.18	237	87
Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	19.8%	8.8%	2.8%	.337	5.97	17.2%	8.4%	186	+1.89	4.08	418	87
Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.58	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.81	3.35	541	86
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	18.2%	6.2%	2.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	229	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+1.4	$13M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.2	$11M	+$6M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.1	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$18M		$75M	+$56M