Juan Martinez
SS Fresno Grizzlies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Brewers 1 | 195 | .256/.352/.351 | 0 | 15 | 26 | — | .155/.238/.207 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Brewers G… | 191 | .321/.445/.532 | 2 | 24 | 67 | — | .194/.304/.309 |
| 2026 | 19 | A/ROK2 orgs | 347 | .300/.412/.479 | 8 | 29 | 96 | — | .249/.333/.396 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBCOL | 457 | .243/.324/.374 | 8 | 13 | 98 | 0.8 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 21 | MLBCOL | 104 | .261/.341/.420 | 2 | 3 | 102 | 0.4 | |
| 2029PROJ54% MLB | 22 | MLBCOL | 212 | .263/.344/.428 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 0.9 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 168 | 43 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 256 | 352 | 351 | 704 | 95 | 293 | 12 | 10 | 320 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 156 | 50 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 321 | 445 | 532 | 977 | 212 | 364 | 12 | 16 | 430 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 183 | 158 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 253 | 352 | 380 | 731 | 127 | 292 | 15 | 13 | 330 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 164 | 132 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 356 | 479 | 598 | 1.077 | 242 | 380 | 12 | 17 | 467 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 174 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 155 | 238 | 207 | 445 | 52 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 165 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 194 | 304 | 309 | 613 | 115 | 222 | 15 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 183 | 164 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 226 | 302 | 341 | 644 | 116 | 275 | 20 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 164 | 142 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 275 | 368 | 458 | 826 | 183 | 294 | 16 | 11 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 174 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 155 | 238 | 207 | 445 | 52 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 168 | 43 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 256 | 352 | 351 | 704 | 95 | 293 | 12 | 10 | 320 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 165 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 194 | 304 | 309 | 613 | 115 | 228 | 15 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 156 | 50 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 321 | 445 | 532 | 977 | 212 | 364 | 12 | 16 | 430 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 307 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 64 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 244 | 328 | 384 | 712 | 140 | 286 | 18 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 290 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 46 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 300 | 412 | 479 | 891 | 179 | 332 | 13 | 15 | 395 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 174 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 155 | 238 | 207 | 445 | 52 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 163 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 196 | 304 | 313 | 617 | 117 | 222 | 15 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 306 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 64 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 245 | 328 | 386 | 713 | 141 | 284 | 18 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 195 | 174 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 155 | 238 | 207 | 445 | 52 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers Gold | — | 191 | 163 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 196 | 304 | 313 | 617 | 117 | 222 | 15 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 306 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 64 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 245 | 328 | 386 | 713 | 141 | 284 | 18 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | COL | 0% | 457 | 406 | 98 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 82 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 243 | 324 | 374 | 698 | 131 | 284 | 18 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +10 | 0.8 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | COL | 35% | 300 | 265 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 54 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 246 | 328 | 385 | 713 | 139 | 285 | 18 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | COL | 54% | 396 | 350 | 87 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 71 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 248 | 330 | 392 | 722 | 144 | 286 | 18 | 10 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | COL | 64% | 455 | 403 | 100 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 82 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 250 | 331 | 397 | 728 | 147 | 287 | 18 | 10 | 325 | 106 | +3 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +10 | 1.9 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | COL | 67% | 493 | 437 | 110 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 48 | 89 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 251 | 332 | 400 | 733 | 150 | 288 | 18 | 10 | 327 | 107 | +4 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 69% | 516 | 456 | 114 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 94 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 251 | 332 | 402 | 734 | 151 | 288 | 18 | 10 | 327 | 108 | +5 | +1 | -0 | +6 | +11 | 2.3 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | COL | 71% | 527 | 466 | 118 | 23 | 5 | 13 | 51 | 96 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 251 | 332 | 401 | 733 | 151 | 288 | 18 | 10 | 327 | 107 | +5 | +1 | -0 | +6 | +11 | 2.3 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 70% | 527 | 466 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 97 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 250 | 331 | 399 | 730 | 149 | 288 | 18 | 10 | 326 | 107 | +4 | +1 | -0 | +6 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 69% | 522 | 461 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 97 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 248 | 329 | 394 | 724 | 147 | 287 | 19 | 10 | 323 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +11 | 2.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 67% | 511 | 451 | 111 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 50 | 96 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 326 | 388 | 715 | 143 | 286 | 19 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 66% | 498 | 442 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 96 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 243 | 323 | 381 | 704 | 138 | 284 | 19 | 10 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | COL | 65% | 481 | 428 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 239 | 318 | 371 | 690 | 133 | 282 | 20 | 10 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | COL | 65% | 460 | 410 | 96 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 233 | 312 | 359 | 671 | 126 | 278 | 20 | 9 | 302 | 91 | -5 | -2 | -4 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB MLE | COL | 71% | 425 | 380 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 88 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 227 | 305 | 344 | 649 | 117 | 274 | 21 | 9 | 293 | 85 | -8 | -11 | -5 | +5 | +9 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | COL | 35% | 104 | 92 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 341 | 420 | 762 | 159 | 302 | 18 | 10 | 338 | 102 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | COL | 54% | 212 | 187 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 344 | 428 | 772 | 165 | 303 | 18 | 10 | 342 | 105 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | COL | 64% | 289 | 256 | 67 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 265 | 345 | 433 | 778 | 169 | 304 | 18 | 10 | 344 | 106 | +2 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | COL | 67% | 331 | 293 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 60 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 266 | 346 | 437 | 783 | 171 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 346 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 69% | 358 | 316 | 85 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 65 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 266 | 346 | 438 | 784 | 172 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 346 | 108 | +3 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +8 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | COL | 71% | 372 | 329 | 87 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 68 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 266 | 345 | 438 | 783 | 172 | 304 | 18 | 10 | 346 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 70% | 368 | 325 | 86 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 68 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 265 | 344 | 435 | 779 | 170 | 304 | 18 | 10 | 345 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +8 | 1.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 69% | 362 | 320 | 84 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 67 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 263 | 342 | 430 | 772 | 167 | 303 | 19 | 10 | 342 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 1.4 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 67% | 345 | 306 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 65 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 260 | 339 | 423 | 763 | 163 | 302 | 19 | 10 | 338 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 66% | 330 | 292 | 75 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 336 | 415 | 751 | 158 | 300 | 19 | 10 | 333 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | COL | 65% | 315 | 279 | 70 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 252 | 331 | 404 | 735 | 151 | 297 | 20 | 10 | 327 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | COL | 65% | 299 | 267 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 247 | 324 | 390 | 715 | 143 | 294 | 20 | 9 | 319 | 91 | -3 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB CTX | COL | 71% | 302 | 269 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 240 | 317 | 374 | 690 | 134 | 289 | 21 | 9 | 309 | 85 | -6 | -8 | -3 | +3 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3987 | 3531 | 918 | 172 | 54 | 98 | 384 | 749 | 38 | 65 | 42 | 260 | 339 | 423 | 762 | 163 | 303 | 19 | 10 | 337 | 98 | +8 | -4 | -13 | +43 | +86 | 12.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 150 | 28 | 9 | 16 | 63 | 122 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 260 | 340 | 424 | 764 | 163 | 303 | 19 | 10 | 337 | 98 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7054 | 6247 | 1506 | 289 | 70 | 146 | 678 | 1304 | 74 | 174 | 67 | 241 | 323 | 380 | 702 | 139 | 281 | 18 | 10 | 314 | 98 | +13 | -2 | -19 | +68 | +137 | 20.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 138 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 62 | 120 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 240 | 321 | 375 | 696 | 135 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 314 | 98 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 183 PAwOBA .324 → .279 (−45)K% 14.8% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 20.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 2.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .324 → .279; ISO .127 → .111; BABIP .292 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Brewers · 164 PAwOBA .458 → .346 (−112)K% 11.6% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.987 | ×1.008 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×1.008 | 7.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×1.008 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .458 → .346; ISO .242 → .190; BABIP .380 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Brewers Gold · 191 PAwOBA .420 → .267 (−152)K% 11.5% → 14.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.52% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.021 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 13.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.70% | ÷0.958 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.22% | ÷1.121 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.040 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.68% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 124, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .420 → .267; ISO .212 → .117; BABIP .364 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 195 PAwOBA .315 → .206 (−110)K% 11.8% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.79% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 14.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.057 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.088 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 118, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .206; ISO .095 → .053; BABIP .293 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).