Michael McGreevy

Michael McGreevy P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION154 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.02

FIP4.12

K%16.7%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL6070

CMD5560

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p160.352

CH+4.2 (20%)

FB+3.7 (41%)

CT+1.1 (11%)

SI (17%)

CU (13%)

SL-5.1 (15%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.64	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.75	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	2.8%	3.99	4.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	19.8%	5.1%	14.7%	2.5%	3.99	3.45	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.08	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.08	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.12	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	2.2%	3.75	3.51	+2.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.3%	5.7%	12.6%	2.2%	3.75	3.51	+2.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	2.1%	3.75	3.22	+3.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.4%	4.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.11	3.93	+2.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.4%	4.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.11	3.93	+2.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	3.57	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	47	273	1121	182	64	33	96%	5.6	16.2%	5.7%	10.5%	2.9%	3.93	4.04	+2.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	154	635	106	42	20	100%	5.5	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	3.4%	3.92	4.39	+0.9
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	154	635	106	42	20	100%	5.5	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	3.4%	3.92	4.39	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	STL	28	28	154	635	106	42	20	100%	5.5	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	3.1%	3.92	4.26	+1.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	STL	28	28	154	635	106	42	20	100%	5.5	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	3.1%	3.92	4.26	+1.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	14	60	10	4	2	100%	7.1	16.7%	5.9%	10.8%	3.1%	4.02	4.12	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	14	59	10	3	2	100%	7.0	16.7%	5.9%	10.8%	2.8%	3.90	4.00	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	168	695	116	46	22	—	—	16.7%	6.6%	10.1%	3.1%	3.92	4.36	+1.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	168	710	116	46	22	—	—	16.3%	6.4%	9.9%	3.1%	3.91	4.21	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	157	665	111	40	21	100%	6.1	16.7%	6.0%	10.7%	3.1%	4.48	4.54	+0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	157	665	110	41	21	100%	6.1	16.6%	6.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.62	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	635	101	40	21	100%	6.0	16.0%	6.3%	9.6%	3.4%	4.69	4.78	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	141	597	91	40	21	100%	5.9	15.3%	6.7%	8.6%	3.6%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	132	556	81	39	21	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.0%	7.5%	3.8%	5.08	5.22	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	150	633	106	38	18	100%	6.0	16.7%	6.0%	10.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.42	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	150	633	105	39	19	100%	6.0	16.6%	6.1%	10.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.50	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	143	604	96	38	19	100%	6.0	16.0%	6.3%	9.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.65	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	134	566	86	38	19	100%	6.1	15.3%	6.7%	8.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.85	-0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	125	528	77	37	19	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.0%	7.5%	3.5%	4.93	5.07	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	166	988	4142	661	257	128	99%	5.9	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.23	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	838	134	52	26	99%	5.9	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		153	151	803	3360	563	187	97	99%	5.2	16.8%	5.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.03	3.97	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	837	140	47	24	99%	5.2	16.8%	5.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.03	3.97	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael McGreevy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	16.7%	4.6%	2.9%	—	4.64	16.4%	10.3%	465	+0.37	—	—	—
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	80
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	78
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	78
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	78
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	77
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	77
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	76
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	76
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	76
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	76
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	76
Wily Peralta R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	12.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.314	4.43	18.5%	8.4%	312	-0.07	3.98	748	76
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	76
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	75
Dallas Beeler R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SP	3.47	15.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	7.35	10.0%	1.5%	11	+3.88	3.47	122	75
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	75
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	75
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	75
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	75
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	135	15.9%	6.2%	1.30	4.67
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45