Michael McGreevy

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	31	30	173	3.75	3.22	21.5%	6.4%	4.7	K 18.9% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.46
2025	25	MIX2 levels	32	31	171	4.11	3.57	19.3%	5.0%	3.8	K 17.7% · BB 4.7% · FIP 3.90
2026	26	MLBSTL	31	31	169	3.95	4.21	16.4%	6.8%	2.4
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	20	20	121	4.38	4.56	16.2%	5.7%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBSTL	14	14	87	4.42	4.53	16.1%	5.9%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSTL	11	11	66	4.57	4.68	15.5%	6.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.529First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Arb-2$1M2031Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs17

FB Velo14

K%10

Form4.44 ERA (proj 4.38) · K 14.7% (proj 16.2%) · BB 8.6% (proj 5.7%) ▼ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsJeff Niemann (age 27) · Todd Ritchie (age 28) · Kyle Gibson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.38

FIP4.56

K%16.2%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$15M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.64	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.75	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	2.8%	3.99	4.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	19.8%	5.1%	14.7%	2.5%	3.99	3.45	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	15.8%	5.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.12	4.04	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.12	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.46	+4.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.46	+4.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	2.1%	3.75	3.22	+4.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.90	+3.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.90	+3.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	3.57	+3.8
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.95	4.35	+2.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.95	4.35	+2.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.0%	3.95	4.21	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	50	287	1188	191	70	34	96%	5.5	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	2.9%	3.95	4.04	+4.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	20	20	121	511	83	29	16	100%	6.0	16.2%	5.7%	10.5%	3.1%	4.38	4.56	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	91	385	62	23	12	100%	6.1	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.54	4.65	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	294	46	18	10	100%	5.8	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.70	4.81	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	54	226	34	15	8	100%	6.0	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	40	168	24	11	6	100%	5.7	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.25	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	59	22	11	100%	6.2	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.53	+0.8
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	43	17	9	100%	6.0	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.68	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	32	14	7	100%	6.4	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	38	160	23	11	6	100%	6.3	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	3.6%	4.95	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	90	529	2207	348	133	67	98%	5.7	15.7%	6.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.19	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	835	132	50	25	98%	5.7	15.7%	6.0%	9.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.19	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		156	154	817	3427	582	193	98	99%	5.2	17.0%	5.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.03	3.95	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	839	142	47	24	99%	5.2	17.0%	5.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.03	3.95	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 75 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.40 (+0.57)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.860	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×0.900	4.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.869	×1.100	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 150 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.61 (+0.26)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.63%	—	×0.860	18.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×0.900	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.020	×1.100	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 134 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.31 (+0.37)K% 18.0% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.04%	—	×0.860	15.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.24%	—	×0.900	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷0.955	×1.100	3.30%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 19 IPFIP 1.38 → 1.75 (+0.38)K% 22.5% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.54%	—	×0.810	18.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.41%	—	×1.100	1.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.080	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 1.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 99 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.80 (+0.60)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.36%	—	×0.810	14.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.28%	—	×1.100	6.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.069	×1.200	3.80%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 45 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.28 (+0.53)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.03%	—	×0.770	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.25%	—	×1.150	2.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.114	×1.250	0.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 4.26 → 5.42 (+1.15)K% 13.8% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.79%	—	×0.740	10.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.180	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.924	×1.300	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael McGreevy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.79	15.6%	9.5%	214	+0.23	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	78
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	78
Kyle Gibson R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	27	SP	3.72	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.26	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.54	3.56	1,920	77
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	77
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	75
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	75
Jason Hammel R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	27	SP	3.45	18.3%	6.0%	2.1%	.324	4.13	16.5%	8.2%	428	+0.68	3.10	1,810	75
Brian Bannister R 2008 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP	4.78	13.9%	7.0%	3.6%	.304	4.63	14.1%	6.4%	282	-0.15	3.97	667	74
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	73
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,288	73
Brian Lawrence R 2003 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	13.1%	5.5%	3.0%	.259	4.09	13.4%	7.7%	399	-0.28	3.33	963	72
Tomo Ohka R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	27	SP	3.97	13.7%	3.9%	2.8%	.304	4.51	11.9%	5.3%	362	+0.54	3.75	1,070	72
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	72
Nick Blackburn R 2009 · 4.29 FIP	27	SP	4.29	11.1%	4.5%	2.8%	.299	5.04	10.2%	4.0%	408	+0.75	4.19	819	69
Dave Bush R 2007 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	16.5%	5.3%	3.3%	.314	4.70	14.9%	8.1%	474	+0.49	3.65	1,141	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2003 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP	4.48	15.5%	5.6%	3.6%	.329	4.48	15.2%	8.2%	569	+0.00	4.06	1,344	69
Chad Bettis R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	17.0%	6.6%	2.4%	.303	4.46	14.9%	7.6%	263	+0.64	3.67	672	68
Hector Noesí R 2014 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	16.8%	7.5%	3.8%	.288	4.37	17.6%	9.5%	98	-0.32	3.73	613	68
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,260	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	83	15.8%	6.0%	1.22	4.33
Mike Jeffcoat ('83-'94, 1 WAR*)	2.5	83	15.2%*	6.7%*	1.16*	4.65*
Tom Hausman ('75-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	14.3%*	6.5%*	1.22*	4.45*
Brett Oberholtzer ('16)	1.6	81	15.6%	6.2%	1.14	4.36
Taylor Buchholz ('11)	1.6	78	17.7%	6.6%	1.19	4.28
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Chris Reitsma ('07)	3.0	87	13.5%	6.2%	1.12	4.70