Michael McGreevy
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.00
FIP4.12
K%16.6%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 169 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p1019.4%
K%
p1116.5%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
CH+4.2 (20%)
FB+3.7 (42%)
CT+1.1 (12%)
SI (16%)
CU (11%)
SL-5.1 (15%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 8 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 9.39 | 3.64 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 8 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 9.39 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 144 | 592 | 117 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 144 | 592 | 117 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.45 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 153 | 664 | 123 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.1% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.20 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 153 | 664 | 123 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 173 | 724 | 156 | 46 | 15 | 97% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 3.51 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 173 | 724 | 156 | 46 | 15 | 97% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 3.75 | 3.22 | +4.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 171 | 706 | 136 | 35 | 19 | 97% | 5.3 | 17.9% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 3.98 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 171 | 706 | 136 | 35 | 19 | 97% | 5.3 | 19.3% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 3.57 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 102 | 401 | 66 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.5% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 3.01 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 286 | 47 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 169 | 687 | 113 | 39 | 22 | — | — | 16.5% | 5.7% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.41 | 4.18 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 169 | 715 | 113 | 39 | 22 | — | — | 15.9% | 5.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 4.13 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 49 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 47 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 275 | 44 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 39 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 47 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 45 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 42 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 37 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 91 | 540 | 2235 | 360 | 126 | 70 | 98% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.18 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 828 | 133 | 47 | 26 | 98% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 141 | 750 | 3126 | 539 | 182 | 89 | 99% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 833 | 144 | 49 | 24 | 99% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael McGreevy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 16.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.64 | 16.3% | 10.4% | 204 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 81 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 78 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 78 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 77 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .329 | 5.11 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.86 | 3.46 | 407 | 77 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 76 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 76 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.64 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .314 | 4.52 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 748 | 76 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.54 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .301 | 7.32 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.78 | 3.54 | 122 | 75 |
| Barry Enright R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 75 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 75 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 75 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.21 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.48 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 287 | +0.27 | 3.19 | 678 | 75 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 74 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 12.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .355 | 4.55 | 16.0% | 9.1% | 153 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 337 | 74 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.53 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 81 | +1.00 | 3.53 | 289 | 74 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2029 · 3.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.34 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.27 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.93 | 3.34 | 262 | 74 |
| Drew Rucinski R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.57 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 4.7% | .336 | 3.72 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 278 | -1.85 | 2.73 | 409 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 1.26 | 4.57 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |