Vahn Lackey

C Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP45OGV rank#119ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	A+/AMIN	124	.250/.439/.424	3	13	103	—	.230/.374/.390
2027PROJ10% MLB	22	MLBMIN	8	.227/.322/.367	0	0	96	0.0
2028PROJ53% MLB	23	MLBMIN	67	.230/.323/.374	2	2	98	0.3
2029PROJ65% MLB	24	MLBMIN	130	.232/.325/.380	3	3	100	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%99

wOBA98

wRC+98

Chase%92

K%91

Whiff%81

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 79%

CompsHarry Ford (age 21) · Agustín Ramírez (age 22) · Matt McLain (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .322 / .367

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP297

ISO152

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$27M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	52	38	12	1	0	2	14	8	0	8	1	316	500	500	1.000	184	357	15	27	449	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	72	54	11	2	2	1	14	16	3	5	1	204	394	370	765	167	263	22	19	351	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	52	42	12	1	0	2	10	10	0	8	1	286	423	452	875	167	329	19	19	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	72	58	11	2	2	1	10	22	3	5	1	190	338	345	683	155	239	31	14	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	124	100	23	3	2	3	20	32	3	13	2	230	374	390	764	160	303	26	16	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	124	92	23	3	2	3	28	24	3	13	2	250	439	424	863	174	303	19	23	392	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	124	100	23	3	2	3	20	32	3	13	2	230	374	390	764	160	277	26	16	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	124	100	23	3	2	3	20	32	3	13	2	230	374	390	764	160	277	26	16	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	10%	234	204	46	7	2	6	25	63	3	6	1	227	321	366	687	139	297	27	11	310	96	-1	+1	+1	+4	+5	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	227	322	367	688	140	297	25	12	310	96	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	126	109	25	4	1	3	14	33	2	3	0	230	323	374	697	144	297	26	11	314	98	-0	+1	+1	+2	+3	0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	200	175	40	6	2	5	21	53	2	4	1	232	324	380	704	148	298	26	10	316	100	+0	+0	+1	+4	+4	1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	70%	263	230	54	9	2	7	28	69	3	6	1	233	325	384	709	151	298	26	11	318	101	+0	+1	+2	+5	+6	1.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	315	275	65	10	3	9	33	82	4	6	1	234	325	387	712	153	297	26	10	319	102	+1	+1	+2	+6	+7	1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	71%	338	296	69	11	3	9	35	87	4	7	1	234	324	386	709	152	296	26	10	318	101	+1	+1	+2	+6	+7	1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	71%	350	306	71	12	3	9	37	91	4	6	1	232	322	381	702	149	295	26	11	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+6	+8	1.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	69%	346	303	70	11	3	9	36	91	4	6	1	229	319	374	693	145	294	26	10	312	97	-1	+1	+1	+6	+7	1.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	340	298	69	11	3	9	35	91	4	6	1	226	315	366	681	140	292	27	10	307	94	-2	+1	-0	+6	+7	1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	309	271	60	10	2	7	32	84	3	4	1	222	310	356	666	134	289	27	10	301	90	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIN	67%	275	242	52	8	2	6	28	76	3	4	2	217	304	343	648	127	285	28	10	293	85	-5	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.4
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIN	73%	234	207	44	6	2	5	23	66	2	3	2	211	297	328	625	118	280	28	10	284	79	-6	-0	-3	+4	+5	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	67	59	14	2	1	2	7	18	1	2	0	230	323	374	697	144	297	27	10	314	98	-0	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	130	113	26	4	1	3	14	34	2	3	0	232	325	380	705	148	298	26	11	317	100	+0	+1	+1	+2	+3	0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	70%	184	160	38	6	2	5	20	48	2	4	1	234	325	385	710	151	298	26	11	318	101	+0	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	226	197	47	8	2	6	24	58	3	5	1	234	325	388	713	153	297	26	11	319	102	+1	+1	+1	+4	+5	1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	71%	241	211	50	8	2	7	25	62	3	5	1	234	324	386	710	152	297	26	10	318	101	+0	+1	+1	+4	+5	1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	71%	248	217	50	8	2	7	26	65	3	5	1	232	322	381	703	149	296	26	10	316	99	-0	+1	+1	+4	+5	1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	69%	239	209	48	8	2	6	25	63	3	4	1	230	319	375	694	145	294	26	10	312	97	-1	+0	+0	+4	+5	1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	232	204	46	7	2	6	24	62	2	4	1	226	315	367	682	140	292	27	10	307	94	-2	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	209	184	41	6	2	5	21	57	2	3	1	222	311	357	667	134	289	27	10	301	90	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIN	67%	185	162	34	5	1	4	19	51	2	2	1	217	304	344	648	127	285	28	10	294	85	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIN	73%	170	149	32	5	1	4	17	48	2	2	2	211	297	329	626	118	280	28	10	285	79	-4	-0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2131	1865	426	67	18	55	222	566	25	39	10	228	319	372	691	144	296	27	10	309	96	-12	+4	+2	+38	+46	8.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	129	20	5	17	68	173	8	12	3	227	318	369	687	142	293	27	10	309	96	-4	+1	+1	+12	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3295	2878	657	103	29	83	350	875	39	70	14	228	320	371	691	142	296	27	11	310	96	-17	+7	+4	+57	+69	12.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	129	20	6	16	69	173	8	14	3	227	320	368	688	141	295	27	11	310	96	-4	+1	+1	+12	+14	2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 72 PAwOBA .348 → .282 (−66)K% 22.2% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	30.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.44%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	13.62%
HBP% /PA	4.17%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	3.30%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.015	14.74%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.015	4.43%
Triples /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.015	4.86%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .348 → .282; ISO .167 → .145; BABIP .263 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 52 PAwOBA .439 → .375 (−64)K% 15.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.92%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.027	19.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.027	28.35%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.027	2.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.48%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .439 → .375; ISO .184 → .160; BABIP .357 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Elrod Hendricks'68-'79 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,155 PA	3.2	2,155	62	1	224*	308*	401*	+37	-0	8.7	8.7
/162	664	19	0	+11.4	-0.1	2.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.2	2,138	55	38	229	315	371	+38	+24	8.9	8.1
/162	664	17	12	+11.9	+7.5	2.8	pk7: 7
#5Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#6Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Vahn Lackey (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	225/319/363	138	297	2	2	27%	11%	96	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Harry Ford 2024 · A	21	46→53	46→45	52→55	56	220/336/355	135	298	13	15	28%	13%	101	+1.4	227/331/344	117	301	11	16	25%	12%	97	+1.1	223/330/334	111	296	10	16	25%	12%	91	+0.5
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Matt McLain 2022 · A	22	46→56	44→55	53→55	48	221/299/337	116	298	11	20	28%	9%	82	+0.0	239/322/420	181	326	19	22	30%	9%	109	+2.0	234/319/405	170	315	19	23	30%	10%	104	+1.4
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	48→53	49→55	54→55	43	235/299/383	148	333	16	17	33%	8%	93	+0.8	237/301/410	173	329	21	20	32%	8%	99	+1.3	233/299/410	177	319	22	24	33%	8%	97	+1.0
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→58	45→50	51→50	47	232/297/367	135	304	10	16	26%	8%	88	+0.4	256/311/403	147	336	12	14	26%	7%	101	+1.4	263/317/416	154	341	14	16	26%	7%	104	+1.0
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2024 · A	21	49→51	43→50	50→55	46	237/307/351	113	309	11	15	26%	8%	88	+0.4	250/313/394	144	313	14	16	23%	7%	100	+1.3	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	51→48	46→60	49→55	42	249/311/386	137	314	13	12	25%	6%	97	+1.1	248/318/428	180	302	21	19	24%	6%	111	+2.1	246/319/446	200	307	24	25	27%	7%	116	+2.6
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Nick Yorke 2024 · AA	22	48→57	46→50	50→55	43	236/293/366	130	314	14	13	29%	7%	86	+0.3	248/304/358	110	328	11	17	26%	7%	88	+0.4	250/308/351	102	325	10	18	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	49→52	51→55	53→50	45	247/308/415	168	312	18	13	26%	7%	103	+1.6	240/302/401	161	300	18	7	25%	7%	98	+1.2	236/301/401	165	290	19	5	25%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Connor Norby 2022 · A	22	48→51	43→55	48→50	46	227/304/336	109	327	10	11	31%	9%	83	+0.1	241/303/402	161	315	19	11	28%	7%	99	+1.2	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Charles McAdoo 2024 · A	22	49→47	49→50	50→55	48	243/314/390	147	311	17	12	27%	9%	99	+1.3	223/285/364	141	308	16	19	31%	7%	82	+0.0	218/283/359	140	297	16	21	31%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	48→52	41→45	48→45	51	225/337/325	100	294	8	9	24%	9%	95	+1.0	235/325/347	112	296	10	7	23%	7%	95	+0.9	237/330/347	110	299	10	5	22%	7%	95	+0.5
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→52	46→60	48→50	49	233/308/370	136	299	14	13	26%	9%	93	+0.8	220/293/335	115	302	9	13	28%	9%	79	-0.2	243/307/436	194	312	22	11	28%	8%	108	+1.1
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	45	260/311/412	152	306	17	9	21%	6%	103	+1.6	238/317/395	157	283	16	12	21%	9%	101	+1.4	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→58	52→40	48→50	51	248/325/415	167	283	19	12	20%	8%	109	+2.0	254/348/353	99	314	9	12	20%	11%	104	+1.6	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	47→51	52→60	48→50	46	240/313/415	174	307	20	12	28%	8%	105	+1.7	236/309/417	181	299	21	10	28%	7%	105	+1.7	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
✕Chun-Hsiu Chen 2011 · A	22	53→60	46→50	47→45	47	257/317/401	144	325	11	6	24%	7%	103	+1.5	249/309/381	132	344	12	6	29%	8%	95	+1.0	242/305/367	124	340	12	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4

Vahn Lackey

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps