Joseph Dzierwa — OGILVIE

Joseph Dzierwa P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 LHP 6'8" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.91

FIP3.91

K%23.3%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$53M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4550

CTRL4560

CMD4560

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$9M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+1.6	$8M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$6M	+$0.9M
Totals		$28M		$53M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	24	131	514	149	30	8	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	24	131	514	149	30	8	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	BAL	8	8	41	159	50	10	2	100%	5.1	31.4%	6.3%	25.2%	1.3%	2.21	1.93	—
2026	22	AA RAW	BAL	18	16	90	355	99	20	6	89%	5.0	27.9%	5.6%	22.3%	1.7%	2.29	2.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	133	562	134	35	16	100%	5.5	23.9%	6.2%	17.7%	2.9%	3.87	3.82	+1.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	136	576	140	35	16	100%	5.7	24.3%	6.1%	18.2%	2.8%	3.82	3.76	+1.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	138	583	143	35	17	100%	5.8	24.6%	6.1%	18.5%	2.8%	3.78	3.73	+2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	138	583	144	35	17	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.1%	18.7%	2.8%	3.75	3.72	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	136	574	142	35	17	100%	5.9	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	2.9%	3.76	3.76	+1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	132	557	137	35	17	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.3%	18.3%	3.0%	3.81	3.84	+1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	126	532	130	35	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.5%	17.8%	3.1%	3.91	3.97	+1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	500	120	34	17	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	3.3%	4.05	4.15	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	110	466	110	33	17	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	3.6%	4.23	4.35	+0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	102	431	100	33	16	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.8%	4.44	4.58	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	94	396	90	32	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.0%	14.6%	4.1%	4.67	4.83	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	360	80	31	16	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	4.4%	4.93	5.10	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	67	283	68	18	8	100%	5.6	23.9%	6.2%	17.7%	3.0%	3.94	3.89	+0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	96	405	99	25	12	100%	5.6	24.3%	6.1%	18.2%	3.0%	3.89	3.83	+1.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	112	473	116	29	14	100%	5.9	24.6%	6.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.85	3.80	+1.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	121	511	126	31	15	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.1%	18.7%	3.0%	3.82	3.79	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	123	519	128	32	16	100%	6.2	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	3.0%	3.83	3.83	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	122	515	127	32	16	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.3%	18.3%	3.1%	3.88	3.91	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	117	494	120	32	16	100%	5.8	24.4%	6.5%	17.8%	3.3%	3.99	4.05	+1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	111	469	113	32	16	100%	6.2	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	3.5%	4.13	4.23	+1.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	105	443	105	32	17	100%	5.8	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	3.7%	4.32	4.44	+0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	97	410	95	31	16	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	4.0%	4.53	4.67	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	89	376	85	30	16	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.0%	14.6%	4.3%	4.77	4.93	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	77	325	72	28	15	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	4.6%	5.04	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	209	1237	5222	1253	351	178	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.7%	17.3%	3.4%	4.13	3.80	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	57	29	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.7%	17.3%	3.4%	4.13	3.80	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		26	24	131	514	119	34	10	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	785	181	51	15	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Dzierwa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	23.3%	6.4%	2.9%	—	3.77	24.3%	18.2%	408	-0.14	—	—	—
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	85
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	83
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	78
Andrew Suárez L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP	4.12	21.6%	4.0%	4.3%	.297	3.87	18.0%	11.7%	476	-0.25	3.52	717	77
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	77
John Kilichowski L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	17.1%	3.5%	3.6%	.295	5.90	15.7%	-0.6%	82	+1.80	4.10	115	76
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	74
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	73
Nick Bennett L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	21	SP-	2.85	21.7%	5.8%	1.6%	.264	5.13	19.3%	9.8%	227	+2.28	2.85	346	71
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	70
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	70
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	70
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	17.9%	5.3%	229	+1.76	3.19	332	70
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	70
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.98	20.6%	7.7%	156	+2.25	2.73	335	70
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	69
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	69
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	69
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	69
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	113	24.0%	6.7%	1.25	4.03
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17