Joseph Dzierwa

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 LHP 6'8" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#60ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	26	24	131	2.27	2.31	29.0%	5.8%	—	K 23.1% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.01
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	1	1	3	3.66	3.66	23.2%	5.6%	0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBBAL	12	12	66	3.72	3.69	23.6%	5.6%	1.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBBAL	15	15	85	3.71	3.68	23.9%	5.6%	1.8

Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$8M2033Arb-3$10M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 67%

CompsDylan Dodd (age 24) · Ryan Smith (age 23) · Nick Bush (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.66

FIP3.66

K%23.2%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%17.6%

Proj IP151

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$66M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.2	$13M	+$10M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+2.1	$12M	+$7M
2033	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$26M		$70M	+$54M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	514	149	30	8	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	514	149	30	8	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	131	514	149	30	8	92%	5.0	29.0%	5.8%	23.2%	1.6%	2.27	2.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	23.2%	5.6%	17.6%	2.6%	3.66	3.66	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	151	638	151	36	17	100%	5.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.63	+3.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	127	537	128	30	14	100%	5.8	23.9%	5.6%	18.2%	2.6%	3.65	3.62	+2.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	125	528	127	30	14	100%	6.0	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.65	3.62	+2.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	122	515	123	30	14	100%	6.1	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	2.7%	3.67	3.68	+2.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	117	494	117	29	14	100%	6.2	23.8%	5.9%	17.8%	2.8%	3.73	3.76	+2.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	110	463	109	29	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	6.2%	17.4%	3.0%	3.83	3.89	+2.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	423	98	27	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	3.2%	3.97	4.07	+1.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	379	86	26	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	6.8%	16.0%	3.4%	4.15	4.27	+1.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	332	74	24	12	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.2%	15.1%	3.6%	4.36	4.50	+0.8
2037	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	68	287	63	22	11	100%	6.2	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	3.9%	4.59	4.75	+0.5
2038	34	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	58	245	52	20	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	4.2%	4.85	5.02	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	66	279	66	16	8	100%	5.5	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.7%	3.72	3.69	+1.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	85	359	86	20	10	100%	5.7	23.9%	5.6%	18.2%	2.7%	3.71	3.68	+1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	100	24	12	100%	6.2	24.0%	5.7%	18.3%	2.8%	3.72	3.69	+2.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	104	439	105	25	12	100%	6.1	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	2.8%	3.74	3.75	+2.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	104	439	104	26	13	100%	6.1	23.8%	5.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.80	3.83	+2.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	99	26	13	100%	5.9	23.5%	6.2%	17.4%	3.1%	3.90	3.96	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	92	388	90	25	13	100%	6.1	23.2%	6.5%	16.7%	3.3%	4.05	4.15	+1.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	84	355	81	24	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	6.8%	16.0%	3.5%	4.23	4.35	+1.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	70	23	12	100%	6.2	22.4%	7.2%	15.1%	3.8%	4.45	4.59	+0.8
2037	33	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	65	274	60	21	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	4.1%	4.69	4.85	+0.5
2038	34	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	53	224	48	18	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	4.4%	4.95	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	925	3907	908	248	125	100%	6.0	23.3%	6.3%	16.9%	3.2%	4.02	3.70	+19.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	54	27	100%	6.0	23.3%	6.3%	16.9%	3.2%	4.02	3.70	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		26	24	131	514	119	34	10	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	785	181	51	15	92%	5.0	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.9%	2.27	3.01	+3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 90 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.09 (+0.70)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.89%	—	×0.810	22.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.63%	—	×1.100	6.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 41 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.83 (+0.90)K% 31.4% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.45%	—	×0.770	24.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.29%	—	×1.150	7.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Dzierwa (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.62	23.8%	18.2%	403	-0.04	—	—	—
Dylan Dodd L 2022 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	20.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.323	4.83	17.9%	11.8%	277	+1.52	3.31	475	84
Ryan Smith L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	22.5%	6.9%	4.5%	.293	5.42	18.2%	6.2%	104	+0.87	4.55	233	81
Nick Bush L 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SP	3.66	17.7%	5.6%	2.5%	.320	4.16	19.3%	14.0%	188	+0.50	3.48	320	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	80
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	79
Seth Varner L 2015 · 2.90 FIP	23	SP	2.90	18.1%	2.1%	1.9%	.314	4.54	14.7%	9.0%	292	+1.64	2.90	431	78
Daniel Camarena L 2016 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	16.3%	4.4%	2.7%	.295	4.33	15.7%	8.5%	340	+0.57	3.76	674	78
Ryan Borucki L 2017 · 2.90 FIP	23	SP	2.90	20.0%	6.6%	1.2%	.299	3.71	17.2%	8.5%	191	+0.81	2.90	648	78
Joey Lucchesi L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	24	SP	3.78	21.1%	6.8%	2.9%	.253	4.02	24.5%	16.7%	294	+0.24	3.12	817	78
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	78
Reid VanScoter L 2023 · 2.93 FIP	24	SP	2.93	20.0%	6.7%	1.2%	.332	4.31	16.9%	8.1%	240	+1.38	2.93	383	77
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	77
Matthew Boyd L 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP	4.53	19.4%	7.2%	3.9%	.252	4.27	20.5%	13.1%	518	-0.26	2.22	1,457	77
Harrison Musgrave L 2015 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	17.8%	6.0%	3.0%	.292	4.57	15.4%	6.3%	269	+0.56	4.01	440	76
John Lamb L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	23.9%	8.4%	2.2%	.319	4.62	17.9%	9.4%	229	+1.24	3.38	390	76
Daniel Norris L 2016 · 3.38 FIP	23	SP	3.38	22.3%	8.1%	2.1%	.341	4.48	20.6%	12.2%	304	+1.10	2.81	821	75
Brant Hurter L 2022 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP-	2.84	23.7%	5.5%	1.9%	.337	3.33	21.5%	14.6%	298	+0.49	2.84	440	75
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	75
Michael Plassmeyer L 2019 · 3.42 FIP	22	SP	3.42	16.1%	5.0%	1.9%	.273	4.86	21.2%	13.8%	238	+1.44	3.42	653	75
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	108	23.3%	6.2%	1.15	3.88
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Ron Reed ('66-'84, 34 WAR*)	12.4	138	19.8%*	6.1%*	1.07*	3.94*
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Dick Drago ('69-'81, 22 WAR*)	9.4	144	18.1%*	6.8%*	1.08*	4.13*